Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
On May 31, 1985, the most significant tornado outbreak to ever strike Southern Ontario and the Northeast US took place. 44 tornadoes occurred, well over half of which were strong to violent, including the infamous Niles-Wheatland F5 and many others. In this video, we break down the meteorology behind the May 31, 1985 outbreak and discuss some reasons why this outbreak was so potent, especially for the region.
Thumbnail images by Mike Zahurak and NWS Cleveland.
Big thank you to Brian Bernard for running and allowing me to use his WRF model simulation of the May 31, 1985 outbreak. Please visit his website for more case studies at goldenhorseshoewx.ca
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Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:02 Overview of notable tornadoes
4:59 Storm Chaser Coaching ad
5:48 Meteorological breakdown begins
7:53 500mb jet translation speed analysis (OMEGA)
15:13 Surface analysis
24:11 Sounding analysis
30:31 Role of the elevated mixed layer
44:00 Radar and satellite analysis
50:32 Wrap-up
---------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!
1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITY
Our coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!
Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register
2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMY
The Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.
Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!
Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy
---------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
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Resources:
NWS Cleveland event page: weather.gov/cle/event_19850531_85outbreak
NWS State College event page: weather.gov/ctp/tornadooutbreak_may311985
NWS story map on the event: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/e8c12f670d5648a9b64877f42660eeeb
US Tornadoes article on the event: ustornadoes.com/2015/05/31/may-31-1985-a-tornado-outbreak-out-of-place
SPC's Violent Tornado Webpage: spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/#
Brian Bernard's WRF model simulation of the event: goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/OntarioOhioPennOutbreak1985/?fbclid=IwY2xjawMURZJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETF0NWltMzBrNGhNOTdqWXFHAR6fgje6N-3ubCb9sMwzH6tJb_UIDPgcZb6-Z5vopMm4_iE2_m2H5TrKBygC4g_aem__t8IS3lPVZshKJnAfYYn6g
"The OMEGA Project" paper by Broyles et al. - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf
Andrews et al. (2024): "Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer over the Contiguous United States and Northern Mexico Using ERA5: 1979–2021" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/5/JCLI-D-23-0517.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Banacos and Ekster (2010): "The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.pdf
Farrell, Jr. (1988): "The role of a lid in the 31 May 1985 tornado outbreak" - https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA196684.pdf
Footage of the Niles-Wheatland F5 was found at the following sources:
youtube.com/watch?v=mt2jS_qjpkk
youtube.com/watch?v=_W6rN-QhsOM
On May 31, 1985, the most significant tornado outbreak to ever strike Southern Ontario and the Northeast US took place. 44 tornadoes occurred, well over half of which were strong to violent, including the infamous Niles-Wheatland F5 and many others. In this video, we break down the meteorology behind the May 31, 1985 outbreak and discuss some reasons why this outbreak was so potent, especially for the region.
Thumbnail images by Mike Zahurak and NWS Cleveland.
Big thank you to Brian Bernard for running and allowing me to use his WRF model simulation of the May 31, 1985 outbreak. Please visit his website for more case studies at goldenhorseshoewx.ca
---------------------------------------------------------
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:02 Overview of notable tornadoes
4:59 Storm Chaser Coaching ad
5:48 Meteorological breakdown begins
7:53 500mb jet translation speed analysis (OMEGA)
15:13 Surface analysis
24:11 Sounding analysis
30:31 Role of the elevated mixed layer
44:00 Radar and satellite analysis
50:32 Wrap-up
---------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!
1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITY
Our coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!
Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register
2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMY
The Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.
Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!
Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy
---------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
---------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
NWS Cleveland event page: weather.gov/cle/event_19850531_85outbreak
NWS State College event page: weather.gov/ctp/tornadooutbreak_may311985
NWS story map on the event: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/e8c12f670d5648a9b64877f42660eeeb
US Tornadoes article on the event: ustornadoes.com/2015/05/31/may-31-1985-a-tornado-outbreak-out-of-place
SPC's Violent Tornado Webpage: spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/#
Brian Bernard's WRF model simulation of the event: goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/OntarioOhioPennOutbreak1985/?fbclid=IwY2xjawMURZJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETF0NWltMzBrNGhNOTdqWXFHAR6fgje6N-3ubCb9sMwzH6tJb_UIDPgcZb6-Z5vopMm4_iE2_m2H5TrKBygC4g_aem__t8IS3lPVZshKJnAfYYn6g
"The OMEGA Project" paper by Broyles et al. - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf
Andrews et al. (2024): "Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer over the Contiguous United States and Northern Mexico Using ERA5: 1979–2021" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/5/JCLI-D-23-0517.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Banacos and Ekster (2010): "The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.pdf
Farrell, Jr. (1988): "The role of a lid in the 31 May 1985 tornado outbreak" - https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA196684.pdf
Footage of the Niles-Wheatland F5 was found at the following sources:
youtube.com/watch?v=mt2jS_qjpkk
youtube.com/watch?v=_W6rN-QhsOM
