Uploaded May 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across much of Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, northwest Illinois, and northern Missouri today for a potential severe weather outbreak. Storms will rapidly intensify by midday, moving eastward into a very favorable environment for all severe hazards, including strong/long-track tornadoes, intense damaging winds, and very large hail. Storm mode may quickly transition to more of a squall line, increasing the damaging wind and embedded tornado threat going into the afternoon and evening. Farther southwest along the cold front/dryline, supercells are possible with mostly a large hail and damaging wind risk.

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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:08 Current conditions, observed data
10:51 Model analysis
27:08 Wrap-up