Uploaded February 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In-depth meteorological comparison of the May 4, 2007, and May 18, 2025, tornado outbreaks. Both of these events were eerily similar, particularly across northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas. On each day, isolated low-precipitation supercells developed along a dryline and produced multiple tornadoes near the town of Arnett, OK, giving way to a long-track, highly cyclic supercell after dark in southern Kansas that produced several strong to violent tornadoes. In the 2007 event, 95% of the town of Greensburg, KS, was damaged/destroyed by an infamous EF5; a tragic repeat nearly occurred during the 2025 outbreak.
In this video, we'll compare and contrast the background pattern and the near-storm proximity environments that the two cases exhibited.
A big thank you to everyone who submitted their footage and photos to me for use in these videos; I wasn’t able to include everybody’s, but know that they were, at the very least, a huge help in my research process for these videos.
Thumbnail images via the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (left) and Celton Henderson (right).
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Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
4:00 Upper air/surface comparison
12:18 Observed and model proximity sounding comparison
23:11 Discussion of deviant tornado motion
24:47 Summary and wrap-up
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Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching! Join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts and to get started on your journey to becoming a better storm chaser:
discord.gg/hNrcwJJQR5
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Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
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Resources:
My full breakdown on the May 18, 2025, outbreak: youtube.com/watch?v=rjsLkFfS_lQ
My full breakdown of the May 4, 2007, Greensburg EF5: youtube.com/watch?v=hkhWb3Hyl_Y
Lemon and Umscheid (2008): "THE GREENSBURG, KANSAS TORNADIC STORM: A STORM OF EXTREMES" - tornadotalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/141811.pdf
Tanamachi et al. (2012): "Mobile, X-band, Polarimetric Doppler Radar Observations of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/140/7/mwr-d-11-00142.1.xml
Nixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xml
Chase Archive website: app.chasearchive.com
In-depth meteorological comparison of the May 4, 2007, and May 18, 2025, tornado outbreaks. Both of these events were eerily similar, particularly across northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas. On each day, isolated low-precipitation supercells developed along a dryline and produced multiple tornadoes near the town of Arnett, OK, giving way to a long-track, highly cyclic supercell after dark in southern Kansas that produced several strong to violent tornadoes. In the 2007 event, 95% of the town of Greensburg, KS, was damaged/destroyed by an infamous EF5; a tragic repeat nearly occurred during the 2025 outbreak.
In this video, we'll compare and contrast the background pattern and the near-storm proximity environments that the two cases exhibited.
A big thank you to everyone who submitted their footage and photos to me for use in these videos; I wasn’t able to include everybody’s, but know that they were, at the very least, a huge help in my research process for these videos.
Thumbnail images via the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (left) and Celton Henderson (right).
---------------------------------------------------------
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
4:00 Upper air/surface comparison
12:18 Observed and model proximity sounding comparison
23:11 Discussion of deviant tornado motion
24:47 Summary and wrap-up
---------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching! Join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts and to get started on your journey to becoming a better storm chaser:
discord.gg/hNrcwJJQR5
---------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
---------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
My full breakdown on the May 18, 2025, outbreak: youtube.com/watch?v=rjsLkFfS_lQ
My full breakdown of the May 4, 2007, Greensburg EF5: youtube.com/watch?v=hkhWb3Hyl_Y
Lemon and Umscheid (2008): "THE GREENSBURG, KANSAS TORNADIC STORM: A STORM OF EXTREMES" - tornadotalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/141811.pdf
Tanamachi et al. (2012): "Mobile, X-band, Polarimetric Doppler Radar Observations of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/140/7/mwr-d-11-00142.1.xml
Nixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xml
Chase Archive website: app.chasearchive.com
