Uploaded February 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Welcome to my fourth annual tornado season forecast! In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution across the United States for the upcoming 2026 tornado season (March-June). We'll use global climate teleconnections (namely, the El Niño Southern Oscillation), Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies, and drought in the elevated mixed layer source region to help us predict whether we'll see an above-average, near-normal, or below-average tornado count this spring, as well as which areas might be favored for enhanced tornado activity.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
2:38 El Niño Southern Oscillation
17:11 Gulf sea-surface temperature anomalies
19:07 Drought in the EML source region
21:59 Introduction to analogs
24:44 Analog: 2023
26:34 Analog: 2009
27:50 Analog: 2018
29:12 Analog: 2002
30:38 Analog: 1976
32:13 Composite 500 mb height anomalies for analog years
34:52 Climate model output, seasonal forecasts
36:03 My final forecast
38:45 Wrap-up
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Resources
"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter
and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks" - Cook et al. (2017): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/56/9/jamc-d-16-0249.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008
Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above (scroll down to where it says "Supplementary data")
"Is There an Optimal ENSO Pattern That Enhances Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes Conducive to Tornado Outbreaks in the United States?" - Lee et al. (2013): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/5/jcli-d-12-00128.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603
RONI data: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni
Excellent source for climate model graphics: bennollweather.com/climate-graphics
Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Tornado maps for analog years collected from tornadoarchive.com
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My past tornado season forecasts
2023: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqE
2024: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0
2025: youtube.com/watch?v=-qszQpZcjog
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Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Welcome to my fourth annual tornado season forecast! In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution across the United States for the upcoming 2026 tornado season (March-June). We'll use global climate teleconnections (namely, the El Niño Southern Oscillation), Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies, and drought in the elevated mixed layer source region to help us predict whether we'll see an above-average, near-normal, or below-average tornado count this spring, as well as which areas might be favored for enhanced tornado activity.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contents
0:00 Introduction
2:38 El Niño Southern Oscillation
17:11 Gulf sea-surface temperature anomalies
19:07 Drought in the EML source region
21:59 Introduction to analogs
24:44 Analog: 2023
26:34 Analog: 2009
27:50 Analog: 2018
29:12 Analog: 2002
30:38 Analog: 1976
32:13 Composite 500 mb height anomalies for analog years
34:52 Climate model output, seasonal forecasts
36:03 My final forecast
38:45 Wrap-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resources
"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter
and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks" - Cook et al. (2017): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/56/9/jamc-d-16-0249.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008
Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above (scroll down to where it says "Supplementary data")
"Is There an Optimal ENSO Pattern That Enhances Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes Conducive to Tornado Outbreaks in the United States?" - Lee et al. (2013): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/5/jcli-d-12-00128.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603
RONI data: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni
Excellent source for climate model graphics: bennollweather.com/climate-graphics
Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Tornado maps for analog years collected from tornadoarchive.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My past tornado season forecasts
2023: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqE
2024: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0
2025: youtube.com/watch?v=-qszQpZcjog
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
