Uploaded April 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across Oklahoma and far north Texas thanks to increased confidence in supercells producing large to giant hail in this corridor. The strong tornado risk has also been extended southward into southern Oklahoma.
A multi-day severe weather event is set to begin today across a broad region from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Here, the SPC has outlined large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for today (Monday, April 1). A complex convective evolution is expected with multiple rounds and potential areas of severe weather from this afternoon into the overnight hours. Initial supercells should fire along the dryline and warm front with a large to giant hail threat this afternoon. The tornado threat may increase closer to sunset and after, first across southern Oklahoma and then spreading northeast with time as the low-level jet ramps up nocturnally. Any discrete supercells that remain may yield a strong tornado threat. As mentioned in this morning's outlook, we may see a hail-driven upgrade to Moderate Risk in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage/intensity increases.
The threat shifts east tomorrow; the SPC has outlined another Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from Kentucky into Tennessee. This may be expanded north in future outlooks, but for now, the Enhanced Risk area highlights where the greatest threat for tornadoes and damaging wind appears to be. I plan on posting another forecast discussion tomorrow morning once we have a little more clarity in the progression of the pertinent features.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, breakdown of threat areas
4:42 Current observations
15:28 Model analysis of today's setup
40:12 Brief discussion of tomorrow's setup
46:16 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across Oklahoma and far north Texas thanks to increased confidence in supercells producing large to giant hail in this corridor. The strong tornado risk has also been extended southward into southern Oklahoma.
A multi-day severe weather event is set to begin today across a broad region from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Here, the SPC has outlined large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for today (Monday, April 1). A complex convective evolution is expected with multiple rounds and potential areas of severe weather from this afternoon into the overnight hours. Initial supercells should fire along the dryline and warm front with a large to giant hail threat this afternoon. The tornado threat may increase closer to sunset and after, first across southern Oklahoma and then spreading northeast with time as the low-level jet ramps up nocturnally. Any discrete supercells that remain may yield a strong tornado threat. As mentioned in this morning's outlook, we may see a hail-driven upgrade to Moderate Risk in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage/intensity increases.
The threat shifts east tomorrow; the SPC has outlined another Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from Kentucky into Tennessee. This may be expanded north in future outlooks, but for now, the Enhanced Risk area highlights where the greatest threat for tornadoes and damaging wind appears to be. I plan on posting another forecast discussion tomorrow morning once we have a little more clarity in the progression of the pertinent features.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, breakdown of threat areas
4:42 Current observations
15:28 Model analysis of today's setup
40:12 Brief discussion of tomorrow's setup
46:16 Wrap-up
