Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from Iowa to Texas, surrounded by a large Slight Risk (level 2/5). A complex setup is on tap for today with multiple severe weather regimes. For northern portions of the risk, storms with an all-hazards threat should develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary by mid-afternoon, congealing into a line with time. Farther south, supercells are possible within a warm advection regime from north Texas to Missouri; all hazards, some significant, are possible with these. A conditional risk for a supercell or two exists farther west along the dryline; should a storm fire, all hazards would be possible. The threat continues into tomorrow, as well.

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Chapters

0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:27 Current data analysis
18:49 Model analysis
46:32 Wrap-up