Uploaded April 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our well-advertised mutli-day severe weather sequence is set to begin today (Thursday, April 25) as a series of troughs takes aim at a moist airmass draped across the Plains.
TODAY (THURSDAY): Supercells will likely fire ahead of a deepening surface low and tightening dryline across western Kansas and in an upslope regime in northeast Colorado this afternoon, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Initially, these storms will be capable of producing large to very large hail; the (strong) tornado threat will ramp up by early evening with any sustained discrete supercells that can remain within the warm sector. Farther south along the dryline, supercell development is more conditional but could foster a significant severe threat should any develop. An additional batch of severe storms should fire late tonight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, posing an all-hazards threat. Here, SPC has also outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5).
FRIDAY: SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) centered on the confluence of Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. An arc of supercells is expected ahead of the surface low here; given strong instability and low-level shear, a strong tornado or two is possible, along with very large hail and damaging winds. A more conditional all-hazards threat exists farther south along the dryline.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Potential exists for a significant severe weather outbreak on Saturday focused on Kansas and Oklahoma, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). A second potent trough will move in and interact with a broad warm sector featuring rich low-level moisture. Intense kinematics may foster a strong/long-track tornado threat, contingent on the degree of morning convection. The threat will shift east on Sunday, but we won't know about Sunday until we see how Saturday plays out.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:07 Discussion of today's setup
32:09 Discussion of Friday's setup
40:41 Discussion of Saturday/Sunday setup
48:36 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our well-advertised mutli-day severe weather sequence is set to begin today (Thursday, April 25) as a series of troughs takes aim at a moist airmass draped across the Plains.
TODAY (THURSDAY): Supercells will likely fire ahead of a deepening surface low and tightening dryline across western Kansas and in an upslope regime in northeast Colorado this afternoon, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Initially, these storms will be capable of producing large to very large hail; the (strong) tornado threat will ramp up by early evening with any sustained discrete supercells that can remain within the warm sector. Farther south along the dryline, supercell development is more conditional but could foster a significant severe threat should any develop. An additional batch of severe storms should fire late tonight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, posing an all-hazards threat. Here, SPC has also outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5).
FRIDAY: SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) centered on the confluence of Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. An arc of supercells is expected ahead of the surface low here; given strong instability and low-level shear, a strong tornado or two is possible, along with very large hail and damaging winds. A more conditional all-hazards threat exists farther south along the dryline.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Potential exists for a significant severe weather outbreak on Saturday focused on Kansas and Oklahoma, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). A second potent trough will move in and interact with a broad warm sector featuring rich low-level moisture. Intense kinematics may foster a strong/long-track tornado threat, contingent on the degree of morning convection. The threat will shift east on Sunday, but we won't know about Sunday until we see how Saturday plays out.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:07 Discussion of today's setup
32:09 Discussion of Friday's setup
40:41 Discussion of Saturday/Sunday setup
48:36 Wrap-up
