Uploaded April 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Significant severe weather will make a return to the central US over the next couple days. SPC has outlined Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) both today and tomorrow.
TODAY: The Enhanced Risk extends from central Iowa into eastern Kansas, as supercells are expected to develop ahead of a cold front and dryline. Storms may tend to both cluster and outrun the instability axis with northward extent across Nebraska and Iowa, although they'd still yield a very large hail and damaging wind threat. Farther south across Kansas, a more discrete storm mode is expected, yielding an all-hazards risk and perhaps some beautiful storm structure. With southern extent, storm coverage is much more conditional given weaker forcing for ascent.
TOMORROW (WED, MAY 1): An Enhanced Risk is centered on Kansas, where supercells are expected ahead of a surface low and along a warm front, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending down the dryline into west Texas. Morning convection may stunt northward moisture return south of the synoptic warm front in Kansas, but if coverage of morning storms is low, this may not be an issue. Assuming ample destabilization, supercells should develop with an all-hazards risk. Coverage farther south along the dryline is unclear, but storms that do form should foster a large hail and damaging wind threat.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:28 Discussion of today's setup
27:05 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
34:23 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Significant severe weather will make a return to the central US over the next couple days. SPC has outlined Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) both today and tomorrow.
TODAY: The Enhanced Risk extends from central Iowa into eastern Kansas, as supercells are expected to develop ahead of a cold front and dryline. Storms may tend to both cluster and outrun the instability axis with northward extent across Nebraska and Iowa, although they'd still yield a very large hail and damaging wind threat. Farther south across Kansas, a more discrete storm mode is expected, yielding an all-hazards risk and perhaps some beautiful storm structure. With southern extent, storm coverage is much more conditional given weaker forcing for ascent.
TOMORROW (WED, MAY 1): An Enhanced Risk is centered on Kansas, where supercells are expected ahead of a surface low and along a warm front, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending down the dryline into west Texas. Morning convection may stunt northward moisture return south of the synoptic warm front in Kansas, but if coverage of morning storms is low, this may not be an issue. Assuming ample destabilization, supercells should develop with an all-hazards risk. Coverage farther south along the dryline is unclear, but storms that do form should foster a large hail and damaging wind threat.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:28 Discussion of today's setup
27:05 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
34:23 Wrap-up
