Uploaded May 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our active pattern continues as a classic stretch of severe weather setups take aim at the Plains starting today. Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) have been outlined by the SPC for the next four days, with each day posing a risk for significant severe hazards, including strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Today, widespread convection is expected across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, with a more conditional risk along the warm front from central into northwest Oklahoma. Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be the main risks, but a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if any storms fire near the warm front and via any favorable storm interactions.
Tomorrow, discrete supercells are expected ahead of a robust dryline from Nebraska into Texas, with the greatest risk centered on Kansas into northern Oklahoma. All hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes and large to very large hail.
Stronger forcing for ascent will overspread the dryline on Monday, leading to a higher-ceiling but lower-floor event. Once again, intense supercells are possible with all hazards, but storm mode remains a question. The threat shifts east into the Mid-South/Southeast on Tuesday.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.com/invite/WNW82kW5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen.
What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgen
To register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:39 Discussion of today's setup
23:16 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
30:07 Discussion of Monday/Tuesday setups
33:01 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our active pattern continues as a classic stretch of severe weather setups take aim at the Plains starting today. Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) have been outlined by the SPC for the next four days, with each day posing a risk for significant severe hazards, including strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Today, widespread convection is expected across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, with a more conditional risk along the warm front from central into northwest Oklahoma. Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be the main risks, but a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if any storms fire near the warm front and via any favorable storm interactions.
Tomorrow, discrete supercells are expected ahead of a robust dryline from Nebraska into Texas, with the greatest risk centered on Kansas into northern Oklahoma. All hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes and large to very large hail.
Stronger forcing for ascent will overspread the dryline on Monday, leading to a higher-ceiling but lower-floor event. Once again, intense supercells are possible with all hazards, but storm mode remains a question. The threat shifts east into the Mid-South/Southeast on Tuesday.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.com/invite/WNW82kW5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen.
What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgen
To register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:39 Discussion of today's setup
23:16 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
30:07 Discussion of Monday/Tuesday setups
33:01 Wrap-up
