Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
***11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across northern Illinois/northwest Indiana. Confidence continues to increase in supercells along/south of the warm front this afternoon/evening in this area. These will pose a risk for tornadoes, some of which could be intense (EF3+). This video was recorded before the upgrade.***
A widespread severe weather event is on tap for folks from the Midwest to Mexico today into Wednesday. Today, the SPC has outlined bimodal Enhanced Risks (level 3/5), one from Missouri into Indiana/Michigan and one across Texas. In the northern risk, supercells may develop by midafternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave. Those that are able to interact with the warm front or remain in the warm sector just south of it will pose a risk for all hazards, including intense tornadoes and very large hail. In the southern mode, strong forcing will encourage widespread convective development by mid-afternoon along and ahead of the dryline in Texas. Semi-discrete supercells will pose the greatest risk of all severe hazards, particularly large to giant hail, before congealing into a line with eastward extent. There may also be a threat for severe storms with an all-hazards risk in the open warm sector well east of the dryline.
The threat shifts east tomorrow, but we'll have to see how today plays out to get a handle on what may happen Wednesday. Still, all hazards will be possible with both storms that persist overnight into tomorrow, as well as any new development that occurs out ahead.
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Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:42 Discussion of today's setup
43:30 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
45:11 Convection-allowing model analysis
50:39 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
***11:30 AM CDT UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across northern Illinois/northwest Indiana. Confidence continues to increase in supercells along/south of the warm front this afternoon/evening in this area. These will pose a risk for tornadoes, some of which could be intense (EF3+). This video was recorded before the upgrade.***
A widespread severe weather event is on tap for folks from the Midwest to Mexico today into Wednesday. Today, the SPC has outlined bimodal Enhanced Risks (level 3/5), one from Missouri into Indiana/Michigan and one across Texas. In the northern risk, supercells may develop by midafternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave. Those that are able to interact with the warm front or remain in the warm sector just south of it will pose a risk for all hazards, including intense tornadoes and very large hail. In the southern mode, strong forcing will encourage widespread convective development by mid-afternoon along and ahead of the dryline in Texas. Semi-discrete supercells will pose the greatest risk of all severe hazards, particularly large to giant hail, before congealing into a line with eastward extent. There may also be a threat for severe storms with an all-hazards risk in the open warm sector well east of the dryline.
The threat shifts east tomorrow, but we'll have to see how today plays out to get a handle on what may happen Wednesday. Still, all hazards will be possible with both storms that persist overnight into tomorrow, as well as any new development that occurs out ahead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:42 Discussion of today's setup
43:30 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
45:11 Convection-allowing model analysis
50:39 Wrap-up
