Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this video, we'll take a look back at our 2025 tornado season forecast and assess how it performed this season. We'll discuss how our main modulating factors progressed throughout the season, compare our forecast month-by-month to what actually happened this year, and give some possible reasons for why our forecast may have differed from reality.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contents
0:00 Introduction
1:47 How our modulating factors evolved throughout the season
9:02 March recap and forecast verification
13:10 April recap and forecast verification
16:27 May recap and forecast verification
19:46 June recap and forecast verification
22:42 Possible reasons for the active season
31:32 Wrap-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
My 2025 Tornado Season Forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=-qszQpZcjog
Past Forecasts
2024: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0
2023: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqE
"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf
Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above
"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603
"Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation" - Tippett et al. (2022): wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1063/2022
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.com/invite/WNW82kW5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen.
What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgen
To register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
In this video, we'll take a look back at our 2025 tornado season forecast and assess how it performed this season. We'll discuss how our main modulating factors progressed throughout the season, compare our forecast month-by-month to what actually happened this year, and give some possible reasons for why our forecast may have differed from reality.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contents
0:00 Introduction
1:47 How our modulating factors evolved throughout the season
9:02 March recap and forecast verification
13:10 April recap and forecast verification
16:27 May recap and forecast verification
19:46 June recap and forecast verification
22:42 Possible reasons for the active season
31:32 Wrap-up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
My 2025 Tornado Season Forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=-qszQpZcjog
Past Forecasts
2024: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0
2023: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqE
"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf
Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above
"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603
"Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation" - Tippett et al. (2022): wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1063/2022
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.com/invite/WNW82kW5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen.
What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgen
To register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
