Uploaded February 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

Significant severe weather is expected today across parts of the Mid-South and Southeast, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Adequate instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will overspread a broad warm sector, setting the stage for severe storms mostly in the form of a squall line along a surging cold front. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes, some of which may be strong, are possible with the QLCS. The threat for prefrontal supercells is low given a lack of forcing over the warm sector for much of the day; this could increase tonight across southern portions of the risk area. Any discrete supercells that are able to develop and sustain before the QLCS marches in will pose a risk for strong tornadoes and damaging winds.

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Chapters

0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:54 Observed data analysis
17:15 Model analysis
31:29 Convection allowing model (CAM) analysis
36:45 Wrap-up