Uploaded April 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected to take place Monday and Tuesday (April 15 and 16) over a broad region from the southern Plains to the Midwest and Mid-South. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across northwest Texas, the western half of Oklahoma, and southern Kansas for Monday as a compact but potent trough ejects into the southern Plains, ahead of which a well-defined dryline and broad warm sector will develop. Some concerns exist regarding moisture quality, as well as the timing of the trough ejection and its impact on capping, but supercells are expected to initiate along the dryline Monday evening before transitioning to more of a clustered, linear mode Monday night into Tuesday morning. All hazards are possible, some of which could be significant.
The threat shifts east on Tuesday; the SPC has outlined a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Midwest into the ArkLaTex region. What happens on Monday night will modulate what happens on Tuesday, but severe storms, perhaps significant, are possible across the risk area with all hazards on the table.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
2:59 Current observations
8:01 Model analysis of Monday's setup
32:59 Model analysis of Tuesday's setup
38:45 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected to take place Monday and Tuesday (April 15 and 16) over a broad region from the southern Plains to the Midwest and Mid-South. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across northwest Texas, the western half of Oklahoma, and southern Kansas for Monday as a compact but potent trough ejects into the southern Plains, ahead of which a well-defined dryline and broad warm sector will develop. Some concerns exist regarding moisture quality, as well as the timing of the trough ejection and its impact on capping, but supercells are expected to initiate along the dryline Monday evening before transitioning to more of a clustered, linear mode Monday night into Tuesday morning. All hazards are possible, some of which could be significant.
The threat shifts east on Tuesday; the SPC has outlined a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Midwest into the ArkLaTex region. What happens on Monday night will modulate what happens on Tuesday, but severe storms, perhaps significant, are possible across the risk area with all hazards on the table.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction
2:59 Current observations
8:01 Model analysis of Monday's setup
32:59 Model analysis of Tuesday's setup
38:45 Wrap-up
