Uploaded December 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
***This was recorded before the SPC upgraded to Enhanced Risk across southeast Texas, but the forecast logic I discuss in the video remains valid.***
Severe weather returns to the forecast today for parts of east Texas, western Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) where the greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong, exists, surrounded by a large Slight Risk (level 2/5). Ahead of a compact but potent trough, rich moisture will make its way northward into these areas, setting the stage for thunderstorm development. Several factors look to preclude a more intense event, but ample severe storms with all hazards, including tornadoes, are possible this afternoon into evening. The threat will persist into the morning tomorrow.
We'll also briefly discuss our next robust severe threat, set to take place on Saturday in and around the Gulf Coast States. SPC has outline a Slight Risk for this event, as well, and it could be more potent than today's event.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:51 Observed data analysis
21:26 Model analysis
34:35 Convection-allowing model analysis
38:39 Brief discussion of Saturday's setup
45:13 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
***This was recorded before the SPC upgraded to Enhanced Risk across southeast Texas, but the forecast logic I discuss in the video remains valid.***
Severe weather returns to the forecast today for parts of east Texas, western Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) where the greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong, exists, surrounded by a large Slight Risk (level 2/5). Ahead of a compact but potent trough, rich moisture will make its way northward into these areas, setting the stage for thunderstorm development. Several factors look to preclude a more intense event, but ample severe storms with all hazards, including tornadoes, are possible this afternoon into evening. The threat will persist into the morning tomorrow.
We'll also briefly discuss our next robust severe threat, set to take place on Saturday in and around the Gulf Coast States. SPC has outline a Slight Risk for this event, as well, and it could be more potent than today's event.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:51 Observed data analysis
21:26 Model analysis
34:35 Convection-allowing model analysis
38:39 Brief discussion of Saturday's setup
45:13 Wrap-up
