Uploaded May 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across portions of Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Tennessee/Kentucky today. Multiple rounds of intense severe storms are expected today in this region with all hazards possible, including large to giant hail, intense damaging straight-line winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Farther southwest into the ArkLaTex region, a few supercells are expected to develop along the dryline. These should post mostly a large to giant hail and damaging wind risk given extreme instability but limited low-level shear.

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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:42 Current observations
12:03 Model analysis
21:39 Convection-allowing model (CAM) analysis
25:58 Wrap-up