Uploaded March 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Severe weather is making a return to the central and southern US this weekend into early next week. The SPC has outlined Slight Risk (level 2/5) areas for Sunday (March 24) across Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as Monday (March 25) from east Texas to Mississippi.
On Sunday, a negatively tilted shortwave will make its way into the central and southern Plains, initiating strong surface low development in eastern Colorado. This will foster the development of a dryline, ahead of which modest moisture will return. Antecedent scouring of moisture and a surface low in the Gulf Coast region will delay the onset of moisture return, but upper 40s to low 50s dew points should be able to stream northward ahead of the dryline. Very cold air aloft should compensate for the meager moisture, and plenty of instability for severe storm development should develop. Discrete supercells are initially expected, and a few tornadoes are possible given strong low-level shear.
The threat shifts east for Monday, where we could see a bimodal risk unfold. The main area is expected to take place across the Mid-South ahead of the dryline/cold front. This activity should be more linearly organized with a damaging wind and tornado risk. There could be a separate low-end severe threat that develops across the Midwest if adequate moisture can be maintained ahead of the surface low.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
1:34 Current analysis
5:46 Sunday's risk
29:32 Monday's risk
38:33 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Severe weather is making a return to the central and southern US this weekend into early next week. The SPC has outlined Slight Risk (level 2/5) areas for Sunday (March 24) across Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as Monday (March 25) from east Texas to Mississippi.
On Sunday, a negatively tilted shortwave will make its way into the central and southern Plains, initiating strong surface low development in eastern Colorado. This will foster the development of a dryline, ahead of which modest moisture will return. Antecedent scouring of moisture and a surface low in the Gulf Coast region will delay the onset of moisture return, but upper 40s to low 50s dew points should be able to stream northward ahead of the dryline. Very cold air aloft should compensate for the meager moisture, and plenty of instability for severe storm development should develop. Discrete supercells are initially expected, and a few tornadoes are possible given strong low-level shear.
The threat shifts east for Monday, where we could see a bimodal risk unfold. The main area is expected to take place across the Mid-South ahead of the dryline/cold front. This activity should be more linearly organized with a damaging wind and tornado risk. There could be a separate low-end severe threat that develops across the Midwest if adequate moisture can be maintained ahead of the surface low.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction
1:34 Current analysis
5:46 Sunday's risk
29:32 Monday's risk
38:33 Wrap-up
