Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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In this video, we'll take a look back at our 2026 tornado season forecast and assess how it performed this season. We'll discuss how our main modulating factors progressed throughout the season, compare our forecast month-by-month to what actually happened this year, and give some possible reasons for why our forecast may have differed from reality.

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Contents

0:00 Introduction
1:19 How our modulating factors evolved throughout the season
5:49 March recap and forecast verification
7:41 April recap and forecast verification
13:23 May recap and forecast verification
15:17 June recap and forecast verification
17:53 Wrap-up

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Resources:

My 2026 Tornado Season Forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=VuPkueBvGZM

Past Forecasts
2025: youtube.com/watch?v=-qszQpZcjog
2024: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0
2023: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqE

"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf

Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above

"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603

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