Uploaded October 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In-depth meteorological breakdown of the June 20, 2025, severe weather outbreak centered on North Dakota, which spawned an EF5 tornado near the town of Enderlin, the first official EF5 in the US in twelve years. We'll take an incredibly detailed dive into the meteorology behind the entire setup, including an analysis of the background pattern, how forecasts differed from what actually happened, storm behavior, and much more. We'll also talk about the damaging derecho that followed the tornadic supercells.
Thumbnail image via Aaron Rigsby.
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Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
3:25 Storm Chaser Coaching ad
4:27 Meteorological breakdown begins
6:48 Discussion of the warm 700 mb temperatures
14:32 Surface analysis
20:06 Observed sounding analysis
36:38 Analysis of tornadic supercell evolution
48:52 Confirming the Enderlin tornado's intensity via radar
52:26 RAP proximity sounding analysis
57:36 Discussion of extreme tornado deviance
01:03:28 Discussion of EF5 upgrade
01:06:02 Derecho breakdown
01:14:04 Summary and wrap-up
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Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.gg/hNrcwJJQR5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
---------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
---------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
NWS Bismarck event page: weather.gov/bis/SevereWx06202025
NWS Grand Forks event page:
weather.gov/fgf/2025_06_20_Summary
NWS Grand Forks Public Information Statement on the EF5 upgrade: forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FGF&product=PNS&site=fgf&fbclid=IwY2xjawNQt0FleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETExazFKQzloWURvWEsyc1lTAR5d6xmhb5i484NM-xeESXT8p1TdPv0EzHMFATmaM5c69l7mmpiHauc7_D7UcQ_aem_8Sfj66jB4pcDgSjPqfatow
Jon Davies blog post on 700 mb temperatures: davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/03/3-21-11-and-3-22-11-storm-forecasts-cap.html
Smith et al. (2020): "WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/6/waf-d-20-0011.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Nixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Miller et al. (2024): "Estimating Wind Speeds in Tornadoes Using Debris Trajectories of Large Compact Objects" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/8/MWR-D-23-0251.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Houze, Jr. (2004): "Mesoscale Convective Systems" - agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2004rg000150
Cameron Nixon article on deviant tornadoes: cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/deviant-tornadoes
My 2020 Iowa derecho breakdown (with derecho crash course): youtube.com/watch?v=k-lK5yT-G2U
---------------------------------------------------------
Huge thank you to those who submitted media for use in this video; I tried to use a bit of everybody's media when possible:
Aaron Rigsby
Celton Henderson
youtu.be/2vX1qv6KI_0?si=kzcR7g3oLhAoIL7z
youtu.be/kuX58kusYts
Alex Resel
Ben Williams/Connor Croff
Joey Prom/Eyes to the Sky
YouTube: youtube.com/@eyestothesky1995
Chris Gullikson/Tempest Tours
youtube.com/watch?v=NvgndGDkYLw
Storm Quest Tours
Joshua Quaas
Nelson Tucker
Shelly and Dan Heinrichs
Amelia Urquhart
Jonathan Sladko
Clarence Smith
youtube.com/watch?v=rN5w4cA5UK0
Will
X: @Willzuh
Dustin Freeman
Jackson Farley
Mighty Muffins
YouTube: youtube.com/@MightyMuffins
Chris Howell
Thomas Hinterdorfer/Katey Houston
In-depth meteorological breakdown of the June 20, 2025, severe weather outbreak centered on North Dakota, which spawned an EF5 tornado near the town of Enderlin, the first official EF5 in the US in twelve years. We'll take an incredibly detailed dive into the meteorology behind the entire setup, including an analysis of the background pattern, how forecasts differed from what actually happened, storm behavior, and much more. We'll also talk about the damaging derecho that followed the tornadic supercells.
Thumbnail image via Aaron Rigsby.
---------------------------------------------------------
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
3:25 Storm Chaser Coaching ad
4:27 Meteorological breakdown begins
6:48 Discussion of the warm 700 mb temperatures
14:32 Surface analysis
20:06 Observed sounding analysis
36:38 Analysis of tornadic supercell evolution
48:52 Confirming the Enderlin tornado's intensity via radar
52:26 RAP proximity sounding analysis
57:36 Discussion of extreme tornado deviance
01:03:28 Discussion of EF5 upgrade
01:06:02 Derecho breakdown
01:14:04 Summary and wrap-up
---------------------------------------------------------
Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Check out my new training site, Storm Chaser Coaching!
Get started with our FREE Storm Chasing 101 course. This is an in-depth, two-hour course taught by me that gives you the basic foundations you need to storm chase safely and successfully...completely for free. To access the course, click on the following link: 101.stormchasercoaching.com/register/?utm_source=trey&utm_medium=youtube
Also, join our Discord community to connect with our coaches and other like-minded severe weather enthusiasts. There are even forecast challenges you can complete to test your skills. Join now at: discord.gg/hNrcwJJQR5
For more on what else we have to offer, visit stormchasercoaching.com/. See you there!
---------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
---------------------------------------------------------
Resources:
NWS Bismarck event page: weather.gov/bis/SevereWx06202025
NWS Grand Forks event page:
weather.gov/fgf/2025_06_20_Summary
NWS Grand Forks Public Information Statement on the EF5 upgrade: forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FGF&product=PNS&site=fgf&fbclid=IwY2xjawNQt0FleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETExazFKQzloWURvWEsyc1lTAR5d6xmhb5i484NM-xeESXT8p1TdPv0EzHMFATmaM5c69l7mmpiHauc7_D7UcQ_aem_8Sfj66jB4pcDgSjPqfatow
Jon Davies blog post on 700 mb temperatures: davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/03/3-21-11-and-3-22-11-storm-forecasts-cap.html
Smith et al. (2020): "WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/6/waf-d-20-0011.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Nixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Miller et al. (2024): "Estimating Wind Speeds in Tornadoes Using Debris Trajectories of Large Compact Objects" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/8/MWR-D-23-0251.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Houze, Jr. (2004): "Mesoscale Convective Systems" - agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2004rg000150
Cameron Nixon article on deviant tornadoes: cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/deviant-tornadoes
My 2020 Iowa derecho breakdown (with derecho crash course): youtube.com/watch?v=k-lK5yT-G2U
---------------------------------------------------------
Huge thank you to those who submitted media for use in this video; I tried to use a bit of everybody's media when possible:
Aaron Rigsby
Celton Henderson
youtu.be/2vX1qv6KI_0?si=kzcR7g3oLhAoIL7z
youtu.be/kuX58kusYts
Alex Resel
Ben Williams/Connor Croff
Joey Prom/Eyes to the Sky
YouTube: youtube.com/@eyestothesky1995
Chris Gullikson/Tempest Tours
youtube.com/watch?v=NvgndGDkYLw
Storm Quest Tours
Joshua Quaas
Nelson Tucker
Shelly and Dan Heinrichs
Amelia Urquhart
Jonathan Sladko
Clarence Smith
youtube.com/watch?v=rN5w4cA5UK0
Will
X: @Willzuh
Dustin Freeman
Jackson Farley
Mighty Muffins
YouTube: youtube.com/@MightyMuffins
Chris Howell
Thomas Hinterdorfer/Katey Houston
