Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A widespread severe weather event is on tap for folks from the Midwest to Mexico tomorrow into Wednesday. Tomorrow, the SPC has outlined bimodal Enhanced Risks (level 3/5), one from Missouri into Indiana and one across Texas. In the northern risk, supercells are expected to develop by early evening, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging winds. Should any supercells develop earlier along or south of the warm front, a risk for tornadoes, some strong, will exist, as well. In the southern mode, strong forcing will encourage widespread convective development by mid-afternoon along and ahead of the dryline in Texas. Semi-discrete supercells will pose the greatest risk of all severe hazards before congealing into a line with eastward extent. The threat shifts east on Wednesday, but we'll have to see how Tuesday plays out to get a handle on what may happen Wednesday.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:15 Current data analysis
7:12 Discussion of Tuesday's setup
28:06 Discussion of Wednesday's setup
29:49 Convection-allowing model analysis
37:34 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A widespread severe weather event is on tap for folks from the Midwest to Mexico tomorrow into Wednesday. Tomorrow, the SPC has outlined bimodal Enhanced Risks (level 3/5), one from Missouri into Indiana and one across Texas. In the northern risk, supercells are expected to develop by early evening, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging winds. Should any supercells develop earlier along or south of the warm front, a risk for tornadoes, some strong, will exist, as well. In the southern mode, strong forcing will encourage widespread convective development by mid-afternoon along and ahead of the dryline in Texas. Semi-discrete supercells will pose the greatest risk of all severe hazards before congealing into a line with eastward extent. The threat shifts east on Wednesday, but we'll have to see how Tuesday plays out to get a handle on what may happen Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:15 Current data analysis
7:12 Discussion of Tuesday's setup
28:06 Discussion of Wednesday's setup
29:49 Convection-allowing model analysis
37:34 Wrap-up
