Uploaded March 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri today with a large Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending into the Midwest. In the southern mode, convection is expected to rapidly become severe by midday with a large to giant hail threat given strong instability and weakening low-level shear. These storms are expected to congeal into a line with additional activity expected along its southeast flank with time. After dark, the low-level jet ramps up with an attendant increase in the risk for tornadoes, some perhaps strong.
Farther north from eastern Missouri into western Ohio, less clarity in the forecast exists. Ongoing convection this morning is producing outflow, and where that outflow boundary sets up later could be a focus for a more potent severe threat. Some models also continue to fire storms behind the morning activity, which could sully the environment. If discrete supercells can fire, all hazards are possible, including tornadoes and large to very large hail.
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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri today with a large Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending into the Midwest. In the southern mode, convection is expected to rapidly become severe by midday with a large to giant hail threat given strong instability and weakening low-level shear. These storms are expected to congeal into a line with additional activity expected along its southeast flank with time. After dark, the low-level jet ramps up with an attendant increase in the risk for tornadoes, some perhaps strong.
Farther north from eastern Missouri into western Ohio, less clarity in the forecast exists. Ongoing convection this morning is producing outflow, and where that outflow boundary sets up later could be a focus for a more potent severe threat. Some models also continue to fire storms behind the morning activity, which could sully the environment. If discrete supercells can fire, all hazards are possible, including tornadoes and large to very large hail.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
