Uploaded May 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A significant severe weather outbreak is expected today across the central and southern Plains. The SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) from Kansas into Oklahoma. Supercells are expected to fire ahead of the dryline this afternoon/evening. The environment will rapidly become incredibly favorable for long-track, strong/violent tornadoes by late afternoon/early evening as the low-level jet ramps up from southern Kansas into north Texas. Some caveats remain, such as the degree of convective debris blown into Oklahoma by any storms in northwest Texas this afternoon and potential high cirrus overspreading part of the risk area, but any right-moving supercell in the progged environment will have a very robust severe threat with it, especially this evening.
The threat continues tomorrow, but uncertainty remains on the progression of the event. Ample morning convection may continue to pose a severe threat into the afternoon across tomorrow's Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area, with additional development possible behind it.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:21 Discussion of today's potential outbreak
37:32 Tomorrow's setup
42:57 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A significant severe weather outbreak is expected today across the central and southern Plains. The SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) from Kansas into Oklahoma. Supercells are expected to fire ahead of the dryline this afternoon/evening. The environment will rapidly become incredibly favorable for long-track, strong/violent tornadoes by late afternoon/early evening as the low-level jet ramps up from southern Kansas into north Texas. Some caveats remain, such as the degree of convective debris blown into Oklahoma by any storms in northwest Texas this afternoon and potential high cirrus overspreading part of the risk area, but any right-moving supercell in the progged environment will have a very robust severe threat with it, especially this evening.
The threat continues tomorrow, but uncertainty remains on the progression of the event. Ample morning convection may continue to pose a severe threat into the afternoon across tomorrow's Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area, with additional development possible behind it.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
4:21 Discussion of today's potential outbreak
37:32 Tomorrow's setup
42:57 Wrap-up
