Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our multi-day stretch of severe weather is underway, and today and tomorrow have the greatest potential for significant severe storms.
Today, supercells are expected to develop late this afternoon ahead of a dryline and along a warm front lifting northward into the northwest Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity. Should storms be surface-based, they will pose a risk for all hazards, including tornadoes (some strong). SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to cover these threats.
Tomorrow, the severe weather threat is expected to be more widespread, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from western Missouri/eastern Kansas down into Oklahoma. Uncertainty remains regarding if storms will fire, especially with southern extent, but should supercells develop, they will pose a risk for all hazards, including strong tornadoes. Convective initiation is most likely closer to the cold front across northern portions of the risk area.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:59 Current data analysis
17:22 Discussion of today's setup
29:47 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
44:05 Convection-allowing model analysis for today and tomorrow
50:15 Wrap-up
For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our multi-day stretch of severe weather is underway, and today and tomorrow have the greatest potential for significant severe storms.
Today, supercells are expected to develop late this afternoon ahead of a dryline and along a warm front lifting northward into the northwest Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity. Should storms be surface-based, they will pose a risk for all hazards, including tornadoes (some strong). SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) to cover these threats.
Tomorrow, the severe weather threat is expected to be more widespread, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from western Missouri/eastern Kansas down into Oklahoma. Uncertainty remains regarding if storms will fire, especially with southern extent, but should supercells develop, they will pose a risk for all hazards, including strong tornadoes. Convective initiation is most likely closer to the cold front across northern portions of the risk area.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechronicles
Facebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChronicles
X: twitter.com/ConvChronicles
Instagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chapters
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:59 Current data analysis
17:22 Discussion of today's setup
29:47 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
44:05 Convection-allowing model analysis for today and tomorrow
50:15 Wrap-up
