Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

Another multi-day stretch of severe weather is expected to take place early this week, starting tomorrow from the ArkLaTex into the Southeast. SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for this area; all hazards are possible, including large to very large hail and a couple tornadoes.

The main event comes in on Tuesday, as a widespread area of severe weather is expected from the Midwest to Texas. The most significant severe weather is forecast to occur in a bimodal distribution, with a threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail over the Missouri and Illinois vicinity, as well as an all-hazards risk over the southern Plains. However, there are still some questions that need to be answered, particularly with the southern mode. The threat shifts east on Wednesday.

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Chapters

0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:47 Current data analysis
6:59 Discussion of Monday's setup
11:16 Discussion of Tuesday's setup
29:23 Discussion of Wednesday's setup
30:56 Convection-allowing model analysis
34:34 Wrap-up