Uploaded August 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, including central/eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon within a strongly unstable environment across southern or southeast South Dakota. A nebulous low-level wind profile should keep the tornado threat at bay, save for any favorable storm mergers/boundary interactions, but large to very large hail and significant damaging winds are possible with any more robust storms. An eventual transition into a clustered/linear mode should occur this evening.

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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
2:15 Meteorological analysis
20:54 Convection-allowing model analysis
26:08 Wrap-up