Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Warm Water Upwelling Near Antarctica Has Collapsed Sea-Ice and Increased Glacial Melt — New Research
I chat about newly published research on how upwelling warm water around Antarctica collapsed sea ice in 2016 and is melting glacial ice on the continent from below. The ocean data is collected both from ships and from autonomous Argo oceanography floats. What could possibly go wrong... go wrong... go wrong...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
References and Links:
Article from Grist: Deep-diving robots help crack the mystery of Antarctica’s vanishing sea ice
A decade ago, southern sea ice suddenly and dramatically declined. Scientists say the culprit was a "very violent release" of deep, pent-up heat.
grist.org/oceans/deep-diving-robots-help-crack-the-mystery-of-antarcticas-vanishing-sea-ice
Wikipedia article on Argo for Oceanography:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in PNAS journal:
Recent extremes in Antarctic sea ice extent modulated by ocean heat ventilation
by Earle A. Wilson, Lexi Arlena , and Ethan C. Campbell
Edited by Eric Rignot, University of California, Irvine, CA; received October 28, 2025; accepted February 7, 2026
Direct Link to open-source (free) pdf: pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2530832123
Abstract
Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has experienced unprecedented variability in recent decades, with record expansion through 2015, followed by an abrupt transition to sustained decline. Using over two decades of under-ice Argo float observations, we show that changes in ocean heat ventilation have modulated these extreme sea ice variations on interannual timescales. Between 2007 and 2015, the ocean thermocline warmed and shoaled within the Weddell Sea and off East Antarctica, with the former accounting for most of the interannual variability in Antarctic SIE. After 2016, as Antarctic SIE declined, surface salinity increased, enhancing exchange between the sharpened thermocline and surface waters. Idealized modeling of the Weddell Sea indicates that these upper ocean trends were due to concurrent variations in wind-driven Ekman upwelling and precipitation. During the sea ice expansion phase, increased precipitation enhanced ocean stratification, suppressing the upward flux of subsurface heat while promoting sea ice growth. However, between 2014 and 2016, a nearly three-fold increase in upwelling rates weakened the upper ocean stratification, releasing the accumulated subsurface heat. Though a similar sequence of events occurred along the East Antarctic margin, distinct upper-ocean trends and surface forcing in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean imply alternative drivers of recent sea ice loss in that region. Nevertheless, these results suggest that future multiyear Antarctic SIE variability will depend on the competing influences of wind-driven upwelling and surface freshwater fluxes.
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in Communications: Earth and Environment journal
Poleward migration of warm Circumpolar Deep Water towards Antarctica
Link: nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03426-x
Abstract
The upwelling of warm Circumpolar Deep Water is a key process in the global climate system,
transporting heat, nutrients, and carbon poleward towards Antarctic ice shelves. Here we use physical and chemical seawater properties from repeat ship-based observations to classify Southern Ocean water masses and show changes in warm water abundance south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current over the past two decades. We then train a random forest model ensemble to extend this classification to a monthly gridded Argo climatology beginning in 2004, enabling further
decomposition of the spatial and temporal variability of the signal. Both analyses reveal an increase in upper-2000 m warm water thickness near the continent, consistent with a circumpolar-mean
poleward redistribution of the upper Circumpolar Deep Water core of 1.26km yr−1 (95% CI: 0.53–1.98). Together, these shifts suggest enhanced heat flux towards the Antarctic shelf, with implications for basal ice shelf melting and sea-level rise.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Warm Water Upwelling Near Antarctica Has Collapsed Sea-Ice and Increased Glacial Melt — New Research
I chat about newly published research on how upwelling warm water around Antarctica collapsed sea ice in 2016 and is melting glacial ice on the continent from below. The ocean data is collected both from ships and from autonomous Argo oceanography floats. What could possibly go wrong... go wrong... go wrong...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
References and Links:
Article from Grist: Deep-diving robots help crack the mystery of Antarctica’s vanishing sea ice
A decade ago, southern sea ice suddenly and dramatically declined. Scientists say the culprit was a "very violent release" of deep, pent-up heat.
grist.org/oceans/deep-diving-robots-help-crack-the-mystery-of-antarcticas-vanishing-sea-ice
Wikipedia article on Argo for Oceanography:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in PNAS journal:
Recent extremes in Antarctic sea ice extent modulated by ocean heat ventilation
by Earle A. Wilson, Lexi Arlena , and Ethan C. Campbell
Edited by Eric Rignot, University of California, Irvine, CA; received October 28, 2025; accepted February 7, 2026
Direct Link to open-source (free) pdf: pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2530832123
Abstract
Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has experienced unprecedented variability in recent decades, with record expansion through 2015, followed by an abrupt transition to sustained decline. Using over two decades of under-ice Argo float observations, we show that changes in ocean heat ventilation have modulated these extreme sea ice variations on interannual timescales. Between 2007 and 2015, the ocean thermocline warmed and shoaled within the Weddell Sea and off East Antarctica, with the former accounting for most of the interannual variability in Antarctic SIE. After 2016, as Antarctic SIE declined, surface salinity increased, enhancing exchange between the sharpened thermocline and surface waters. Idealized modeling of the Weddell Sea indicates that these upper ocean trends were due to concurrent variations in wind-driven Ekman upwelling and precipitation. During the sea ice expansion phase, increased precipitation enhanced ocean stratification, suppressing the upward flux of subsurface heat while promoting sea ice growth. However, between 2014 and 2016, a nearly three-fold increase in upwelling rates weakened the upper ocean stratification, releasing the accumulated subsurface heat. Though a similar sequence of events occurred along the East Antarctic margin, distinct upper-ocean trends and surface forcing in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean imply alternative drivers of recent sea ice loss in that region. Nevertheless, these results suggest that future multiyear Antarctic SIE variability will depend on the competing influences of wind-driven upwelling and surface freshwater fluxes.
Peer-reviewed scientific paper in Communications: Earth and Environment journal
Poleward migration of warm Circumpolar Deep Water towards Antarctica
Link: nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03426-x
Abstract
The upwelling of warm Circumpolar Deep Water is a key process in the global climate system,
transporting heat, nutrients, and carbon poleward towards Antarctic ice shelves. Here we use physical and chemical seawater properties from repeat ship-based observations to classify Southern Ocean water masses and show changes in warm water abundance south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current over the past two decades. We then train a random forest model ensemble to extend this classification to a monthly gridded Argo climatology beginning in 2004, enabling further
decomposition of the spatial and temporal variability of the signal. Both analyses reveal an increase in upper-2000 m warm water thickness near the continent, consistent with a circumpolar-mean
poleward redistribution of the upper Circumpolar Deep Water core of 1.26km yr−1 (95% CI: 0.53–1.98). Together, these shifts suggest enhanced heat flux towards the Antarctic shelf, with implications for basal ice shelf melting and sea-level rise.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
