Global Warming Still on Track to Surpass 2.0 C by around 2037: Latest Analysis by James Hansen @PaulHBeckwith

Uploaded February 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

Global Warming Still on Track to Surpass 2.0 C by around 2037: Latest Analysis by James Hansen

I chat about the two most recent blog posts by James Hansen at Columbia University, with a focus on what the most recent posting says about global average temperatures over the next few years. Yes, global warming is continuing to accelerate, and we will likely set new temperature records of 1.7 C by early 2027, on our way to over 2.0 C by 2037 or so.

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but Hansen and his group suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity (latest evidence supports a high climate sensitivity of 4.0 C for a doubling of CO2) and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing (largely due to the reduction of aerosols (SO2 over Asia and the oceans), not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. Hansen and his colleagues find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

Not good...

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References

James Hansen Columbia University:
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Table: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly"
Projections by the 5 leading climate groups on when global average temperatures will surpass 1.5 C, 2.0 C, 2.5 C, 3.0 C, 3.5 C, and 4.0 C
facebook.com/photo?fbid=10171397154975562&set=a.10167518085325562

James Hansen blog from Columbia University website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

James Hansen blog post:
Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It?
06 February 2026
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest
Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/ElNino.2026.02.06.pdf

Abstract.
The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one.
Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but
we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature
already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a
result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate
forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive
for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global
warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

James Hansen blog post:
Fix Our Forests Fiasco
30 January 2026
James Hansen
Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/Forests.2026.01.30.pdf

Boston Globe, Jan. 29, 2026 article
OPINION By James Hansen and Dan Galpern
A logging bill masquerading as wildfire protection
Despite its name, the Fix Our Forests Act would fast-track
logging, weaken environmental safeguards, and do little to protect
communities from wildfire or climate harm.

Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

Year end - Year start GoFundMe:
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