Uploaded November 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Profound Change in Global Weather Statistics: Large Fraction of Earth Gets Higher Heat and More Rain
Clearly, extreme weather extremes are on the rise around the globe, affecting much larger fractions of the Earth surface and more people and infrastructure.
In this video I chat about increases in heat events with temperatures over 30 C (86 F) and extreme heat events with temperatures over 40 C (104 F). I also chat about increases in extreme precipitation events, with 24 hour rainfall over 50 mm (about 2 inches) and in even more extreme events with rainfall over 90 mm (about 3.5 inches). The time frame from 1980 onward is examined in the peer-reviewed scientific paper.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Links:
Peer reviewed scientific paper in journal Science Advances:
Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicate more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes
Abstract
We analyzed the evolution of extreme annual surface air temperature and rainfall on Earth, based on the recurrence rate of record-breaking events, and found the highest recurrence rates for record-high annual temperatures in the tropics, as opposed to the polar regions with the fastest warming. Both recurrence rates and the global surface area fraction with daily mean surface air temperatures exceeding 30° and 40°C provide further evidence for extremely hot years becoming more common and widespread. A similar analysis for precipitation highlighted some regions with more record-high annual total precipitation and others with record-low annual precipitation typically associated with drought. A multi-model ensemble of 306 runs with global climate models [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-45 (SSP2-45)] reproduced the statis-tics of record- breaking high temperatures, but there were some differences for the reanalysis precipitation record-breaking recurrence rates. The global climate model simulations suggested a slightly altered geographical pattern for record-breaking annual precipitation recurrence rates.
science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.ado3712
Image in article on statistical shifts, variance shifts, and bell curve shape distortions, affecting the statistics of extreme weather
climatesight.org/2012/04/03/climate-change-and-heat-waves
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Profound Change in Global Weather Statistics: Large Fraction of Earth Gets Higher Heat and More Rain
Clearly, extreme weather extremes are on the rise around the globe, affecting much larger fractions of the Earth surface and more people and infrastructure.
In this video I chat about increases in heat events with temperatures over 30 C (86 F) and extreme heat events with temperatures over 40 C (104 F). I also chat about increases in extreme precipitation events, with 24 hour rainfall over 50 mm (about 2 inches) and in even more extreme events with rainfall over 90 mm (about 3.5 inches). The time frame from 1980 onward is examined in the peer-reviewed scientific paper.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Links:
Peer reviewed scientific paper in journal Science Advances:
Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicate more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes
Abstract
We analyzed the evolution of extreme annual surface air temperature and rainfall on Earth, based on the recurrence rate of record-breaking events, and found the highest recurrence rates for record-high annual temperatures in the tropics, as opposed to the polar regions with the fastest warming. Both recurrence rates and the global surface area fraction with daily mean surface air temperatures exceeding 30° and 40°C provide further evidence for extremely hot years becoming more common and widespread. A similar analysis for precipitation highlighted some regions with more record-high annual total precipitation and others with record-low annual precipitation typically associated with drought. A multi-model ensemble of 306 runs with global climate models [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-45 (SSP2-45)] reproduced the statis-tics of record- breaking high temperatures, but there were some differences for the reanalysis precipitation record-breaking recurrence rates. The global climate model simulations suggested a slightly altered geographical pattern for record-breaking annual precipitation recurrence rates.
science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.ado3712
Image in article on statistical shifts, variance shifts, and bell curve shape distortions, affecting the statistics of extreme weather
climatesight.org/2012/04/03/climate-change-and-heat-waves
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
