Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Prediction — 2026 is on Track to be the Warmest Year Yet — New Physics Analysis by Hansen & his Team
I chat about the physical arguments put forth by James Hansen and his colleagues arguing that we are presently on track for 2026 to be the warmest year yet in the instrumental climate record, driven primarily by a huge acceleration in global warming forcings and a super-El-Nino later this year.
Of course 2027 will be even warmer than 2026, whether or not we experience a record hot year in 2026.
Cheers,
Paul and Newton
PS: My live comedy debut at one of Ottawa's premier comedy venues took place on Tuesday April 28th in front of a live audience of at least 150 people, a day that will live in either glory or infamy for me.
The Master of Ceremonies and my Stand-up comedy teacher Pierre Brault started the evening with 6 to 8 minutes, and then I was the first comic to give my act. Everything was recorded, and I will discuss the evening and this recording in a subsequent video:)
Let me just say that the crowd was totally amazing, and I think that it went very very well:)
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
James Hansen Columbia: google.com/search?sca_esv=d07bd56edf8f0c31&sxsrf=ANbL-n5NFzrLDhtgJHHCKWCKOas-EL5SXw:1777598881596&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpaEWjvZ2Py1XXV8d8KvlI3ppPEReeCOS7s1VbbZz2TLutTM8bcskdZ5Z5EWAFJPjTghF9mS0qmGrv36U8kfuC6phFf8U1aWAryveA6Pgbo-LJArAvFGtBaC-wIVf-3rOLbrzlISCuJck68rl0WFoHGTeNP9xZJUZnLVvAIZB5lw287sSA28lFrT9_xdHVkCgVCxYNHQ&q=james+hansen+columbia&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi11o_v95aUAxWgFlkFHceKMTYQtKgLegQIJBAB&cshid=1777598894214511&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75
James Hansen website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
James Hansen article posted on April 30, 2026:
2026 On Track for Warmest Year
by James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest
Direct link to pdf: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/2026GlobalTemperature.2026.04.30.pdf
Abstract.
We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental
data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach
may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change.
James Hansen substack: jimehansen.substack.com
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Prediction — 2026 is on Track to be the Warmest Year Yet — New Physics Analysis by Hansen & his Team
I chat about the physical arguments put forth by James Hansen and his colleagues arguing that we are presently on track for 2026 to be the warmest year yet in the instrumental climate record, driven primarily by a huge acceleration in global warming forcings and a super-El-Nino later this year.
Of course 2027 will be even warmer than 2026, whether or not we experience a record hot year in 2026.
Cheers,
Paul and Newton
PS: My live comedy debut at one of Ottawa's premier comedy venues took place on Tuesday April 28th in front of a live audience of at least 150 people, a day that will live in either glory or infamy for me.
The Master of Ceremonies and my Stand-up comedy teacher Pierre Brault started the evening with 6 to 8 minutes, and then I was the first comic to give my act. Everything was recorded, and I will discuss the evening and this recording in a subsequent video:)
Let me just say that the crowd was totally amazing, and I think that it went very very well:)
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
James Hansen Columbia: google.com/search?sca_esv=d07bd56edf8f0c31&sxsrf=ANbL-n5NFzrLDhtgJHHCKWCKOas-EL5SXw:1777598881596&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpaEWjvZ2Py1XXV8d8KvlI3ppPEReeCOS7s1VbbZz2TLutTM8bcskdZ5Z5EWAFJPjTghF9mS0qmGrv36U8kfuC6phFf8U1aWAryveA6Pgbo-LJArAvFGtBaC-wIVf-3rOLbrzlISCuJck68rl0WFoHGTeNP9xZJUZnLVvAIZB5lw287sSA28lFrT9_xdHVkCgVCxYNHQ&q=james+hansen+columbia&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi11o_v95aUAxWgFlkFHceKMTYQtKgLegQIJBAB&cshid=1777598894214511&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75
James Hansen website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
James Hansen article posted on April 30, 2026:
2026 On Track for Warmest Year
by James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest
Direct link to pdf: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/2026GlobalTemperature.2026.04.30.pdf
Abstract.
We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental
data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach
may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change.
James Hansen substack: jimehansen.substack.com
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...



![Profound Change in Global Weather Statistics: Large Fraction of Earth Gets Higher Heat and More Rain
Profound Change in Global Weather Statistics: Large Fraction of Earth Gets Higher Heat and More Rain
Clearly, extreme weather extremes are on the rise around the globe, affecting much larger fractions of the Earth surface and more people and infrastructure.
In this video I chat about increases in heat events with temperatures over 30 C (86 F) and extreme heat events with temperatures over 40 C (104 F). I also chat about increases in extreme precipitation events, with 24 hour rainfall over 50 mm (about 2 inches) and in even more extreme events with rainfall over 90 mm (about 3.5 inches). The time frame from 1980 onward is examined in the peer-reviewed scientific paper.
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Links:
Peer reviewed scientific paper in journal Science Advances:
Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicate more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes
Abstract
We analyzed the evolution of extreme annual surface air temperature and rainfall on Earth, based on the recurrence rate of record-breaking events, and found the highest recurrence rates for record-high annual temperatures in the tropics, as opposed to the polar regions with the fastest warming. Both recurrence rates and the global surface area fraction with daily mean surface air temperatures exceeding 30° and 40°C provide further evidence for extremely hot years becoming more common and widespread. A similar analysis for precipitation highlighted some regions with more record-high annual total precipitation and others with record-low annual precipitation typically associated with drought. A multi-model ensemble of 306 runs with global climate models [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-45 (SSP2-45)] reproduced the statis-tics of record- breaking high temperatures, but there were some differences for the reanalysis precipitation record-breaking recurrence rates. The global climate model simulations suggested a slightly altered geographical pattern for record-breaking annual precipitation recurrence rates.
https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.ado3712
Image in article on statistical shifts, variance shifts, and bell curve shape distortions, affecting the statistics of extreme weather
https://climatesight.org/2012/04/03/climate-change-and-heat-waves/
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc... Profound Change in Global Weather Statistics: Large Fraction of Earth Gets Higher Heat and More Rain](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qUfHrylQ7_w/mqdefault.jpg)






