Perun | Ukraine's Planned Counteroffensive - force readiness, leaks, politics & expectations @PerunAU | Uploaded May 2023 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
The much expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive (sequel to the well known trilogy in 2022 "Kyiv" "Kharkiv" & "Kherson") has, alongside Bakhmut, been a major topic of speculation and discussion for months now. As a topic it is so heavily debated that there isn't even agreement over whether or not it has started, is yet to start, or will never start at all.
For the most part, while some preparations are obvious, Ukraine has succeeded in keeping its actual plans secret, and even a leak of classified American documents did little to definitively answer the question of where and when Kyiv is likely to strike to attempt to reclaim the initiative after Russia's Winter and early Spring efforts.
By popular request, today we take a chance to look at how we got to this point - how have both sides prepared for the offensive to come, what military actions are presaging it, and what it might mean for the war over the next few months.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
A few main comments for this video (as well as all the usual caveats which have been previously advanced).
1- explaining what has happened in UA is hard enough, predicting battlefield developments (when so much key data, especially around force-status is classified) is extremely difficult. As a result, note that I have deliberately refrained from many definitive predictions.
2- Reporting on allegedly leaked US documents is based entirely off content that has been published openly in media sources
3- It is expected the content of this video will be rapidly outdated, such is the nature of the fluid environment and steady flow of new information
4- I mess up the designation of the S-125 by adding an unnecessary "a"
Relevant Reading & Sources:
Credit as always to Oryx for loss and pledge contribution work and Russia Media monitor and Dmitri at war translated for translation of Russian language media materials
Russian Territorial Demands:reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-any-ukraine-peace-plan-must-include-annexed-regions-2022-12-28
Deportation threats:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/04/29/putin-threatens-to-deport-ukrainians-from-regions-annexed-by-russia_6024766_4.html
Russian suggestions Poland is a threat to Ukraine
carnegieendowment.org/politika/88585
Reporting on casualties in Kherson:
aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/3/ukraine-says-16-killed-in-russian-attack-on-kherson
RFE reporting on counteroffensive significance
rferl.org/a/ukraine-offensive-russia-invasion-analysis-turning-point/32382218.html
Ukraine M2A2 and T-55
twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1650615080025743361
RT on US support:
rt.com/news/575671-congress-ukraine-funding-offensive
Japan aid package:
rferl.org/a/japan-ukraine-aid-package-g7-summit-zelenskiy/32279572.html
Glide bomb usage:
themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/26/russia-ramps-up-use-of-glide-bombs-ahead-of-ukraine-counteroffensive-a80947
Pace of M1A1 tank deliveries
washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/27/abrams-tanks-ukraine
UK pledging long range weapons
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-uk-to-give-kyiv-longer-range-weapons
Russian reporting on defence production
tass.com/defense/1600531
Reporting on train derailments
themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/02/explosive-device-derails-second-russian-freight-train-near-ukraine-a81014
Ukrainian victory unlikely this year - Milley
defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/ukraine-victory-unlikely-year-milley-says/384681
US confident UA has what it needs for its counteroffensive
defenseone.com/threats/2023/04/us-very-confident-ukraine-has-what-it-needs-counteroffensive-us-europe-commander-says/385687
Russian reporting on Patriot and SAMP/T delivery
tass.com/world/1601829
Bellingcat leak analysis
bellingcat.com/news/2023/04/28/anatomy-of-three-leaked-us-intelligence-documents
Discussion of Dnipro crossings in media
france24.com/en/europe/20230428-a-small-step-across-the-dnipro-river-a-giant-leap-for-ukraine-s-counteroffensive
Russian claims of UA casualties:
tass.com/defense/1612163
ICC arrest warrant for Putin:
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE (as referenced in the channel update)
youtube.com/watch?v=pqZFi0jNZdI&t
(list incomplete as I am travelling)
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Counteroffensive
00:01:59 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:08 — Assessing the April Fighting
00:09:33 — The Intel Leaks
00:22:11 — Casualties & Force Quality
00:34:36 — Initial Actions
00:39:53 — Expectations & Implications
00:47:43 — Replacements & Support
00:54:26 — Towards a Longer War?
00:58:35 — The Why
01:07:57 — Conclusions
01:08:46 — Channel Update
The much expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive (sequel to the well known trilogy in 2022 "Kyiv" "Kharkiv" & "Kherson") has, alongside Bakhmut, been a major topic of speculation and discussion for months now. As a topic it is so heavily debated that there isn't even agreement over whether or not it has started, is yet to start, or will never start at all.
For the most part, while some preparations are obvious, Ukraine has succeeded in keeping its actual plans secret, and even a leak of classified American documents did little to definitively answer the question of where and when Kyiv is likely to strike to attempt to reclaim the initiative after Russia's Winter and early Spring efforts.
By popular request, today we take a chance to look at how we got to this point - how have both sides prepared for the offensive to come, what military actions are presaging it, and what it might mean for the war over the next few months.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
A few main comments for this video (as well as all the usual caveats which have been previously advanced).
1- explaining what has happened in UA is hard enough, predicting battlefield developments (when so much key data, especially around force-status is classified) is extremely difficult. As a result, note that I have deliberately refrained from many definitive predictions.
2- Reporting on allegedly leaked US documents is based entirely off content that has been published openly in media sources
3- It is expected the content of this video will be rapidly outdated, such is the nature of the fluid environment and steady flow of new information
4- I mess up the designation of the S-125 by adding an unnecessary "a"
Relevant Reading & Sources:
Credit as always to Oryx for loss and pledge contribution work and Russia Media monitor and Dmitri at war translated for translation of Russian language media materials
Russian Territorial Demands:reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-any-ukraine-peace-plan-must-include-annexed-regions-2022-12-28
Deportation threats:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/04/29/putin-threatens-to-deport-ukrainians-from-regions-annexed-by-russia_6024766_4.html
Russian suggestions Poland is a threat to Ukraine
carnegieendowment.org/politika/88585
Reporting on casualties in Kherson:
aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/3/ukraine-says-16-killed-in-russian-attack-on-kherson
RFE reporting on counteroffensive significance
rferl.org/a/ukraine-offensive-russia-invasion-analysis-turning-point/32382218.html
Ukraine M2A2 and T-55
twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1650615080025743361
RT on US support:
rt.com/news/575671-congress-ukraine-funding-offensive
Japan aid package:
rferl.org/a/japan-ukraine-aid-package-g7-summit-zelenskiy/32279572.html
Glide bomb usage:
themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/26/russia-ramps-up-use-of-glide-bombs-ahead-of-ukraine-counteroffensive-a80947
Pace of M1A1 tank deliveries
washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/27/abrams-tanks-ukraine
UK pledging long range weapons
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-uk-to-give-kyiv-longer-range-weapons
Russian reporting on defence production
tass.com/defense/1600531
Reporting on train derailments
themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/02/explosive-device-derails-second-russian-freight-train-near-ukraine-a81014
Ukrainian victory unlikely this year - Milley
defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/ukraine-victory-unlikely-year-milley-says/384681
US confident UA has what it needs for its counteroffensive
defenseone.com/threats/2023/04/us-very-confident-ukraine-has-what-it-needs-counteroffensive-us-europe-commander-says/385687
Russian reporting on Patriot and SAMP/T delivery
tass.com/world/1601829
Bellingcat leak analysis
bellingcat.com/news/2023/04/28/anatomy-of-three-leaked-us-intelligence-documents
Discussion of Dnipro crossings in media
france24.com/en/europe/20230428-a-small-step-across-the-dnipro-river-a-giant-leap-for-ukraine-s-counteroffensive
Russian claims of UA casualties:
tass.com/defense/1612163
ICC arrest warrant for Putin:
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE (as referenced in the channel update)
youtube.com/watch?v=pqZFi0jNZdI&t
(list incomplete as I am travelling)
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Counteroffensive
00:01:59 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:08 — Assessing the April Fighting
00:09:33 — The Intel Leaks
00:22:11 — Casualties & Force Quality
00:34:36 — Initial Actions
00:39:53 — Expectations & Implications
00:47:43 — Replacements & Support
00:54:26 — Towards a Longer War?
00:58:35 — The Why
01:07:57 — Conclusions
01:08:46 — Channel Update
