A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-10-22 | A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE
The Middle East - has anything really changed? | Hon Bob Carr Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-03-06 | In response to the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack from Gaza into Israel (killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians) Israel has mounted a continuing military campaign in Gaza aiming to destroy Hamas. Gaza claims that the invasion has killed more than 25,000 Gazans. Criticism of Israel's actions has been widespread, more so than in the past. Israeli responses have been sharp.The underlying issues surrounding Israel's place in its regional environment have been largely unchanged and unresolved since Israel's establishment three quarters of a century ago.We are privileged to welcome the Hon Bob Carr, former Australian foreign minister and Premier of New South Wales, to offer us his analysis of the situation.
Antarctic Geopolitics: Past, Present and Future Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-03-06 | The Antarctic Treaty (1959) was negotiated and entered into force during a period of significant geopolitical tension. It has successfully managed a key region of the globe as "a natural reserve devoted to peace and science". In this presentation we consider insights from a five-year research project "Geopolitical Change and the Antarctic Treaty System". We explore concerns over increased geopolitical tension in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean and suggest options for management of these tensions.
JAUKUS! Aso Taro on Japan, Australia, China, and Taiwan. 中国の台湾侵攻容認せず 麻生氏「日米豪（JAUKUS) は声を一つに」 Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-27 | At the Australian National Conference, Aso Taro, former prime minister of Japan, laid out his concerns about the region and his advocacy for JAUKUS.Find out more about the AIIA National Conference at aiianationalconference.orgOr be part of Australia's largest public conversation on international affairs: join the AIIA today! internationalaffairs.org.au
Space Activities: Challenges to Safety and Security Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-22 | Space is an important element of critical infrastructure to support the world economy, international trade and investment, strategic thinking, military strategy, national security, science, culture and, frankly, the future of humankind. Given its pivotal role in the functioning of society worldwide, it is important that a governance framework for space exists that appropriately finds a balance between all of these perspectives.This talk by Professor Steve Freeland will address some of the significant challenges to the applicability and further development of the legal regulation of outer space activities, particularly in the currently rapidly changing technological, geopolitical and commercial contexts
The Risk of Major War Between China and the United States | Dr Ross Babbage Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-20 | Despite slightly improved atmospherics in recent weeks, China and the United States remain at loggerheads over several important issues – most notably the future of Taiwan.The challenges for Australia and its allies are immense. Amongst the complications are that the two sides are planning to fight quite different types of war, they have different strengths and weaknesses, they are at different states of preparation and they are focusing on fighting for very different periods. This presentation will briefly address the issues and options for Australian and allied decision-makers.
Ukraine: A Rebounding Economy Under Fire | Roman Waschuk Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-16 | Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the people of Ukraine have been steadily building their economy, unshackled by the constraints of Soviet economic culture. While the economy was severely impacted by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-9, and subsequently, since 2013, through trade and territorial disputes with Russia, its largest trading partner, Ukraine has gradually introduced international standard business practices to develop a modern economy. This process has been dramatically impacted by the Russian invasion of February 2022, however, accession talks with the European Union and innovation driven by the necessities of wartime are accelerating change - and opportunities.
Engaging China for a Sustainable Asia - Strategic Issues for 2024 | Dr. Christoph Nedopil Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-16 | China's economic, political, and military ascendancy has transformed its role in Asia, making it the region's predominant trading partner and investor. The presentation analyses five major developments and trends to elucidate China's engagement in Asia, emphasizing the need for strategic cooperation and alternative approaches to ensure sustainability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. The outcome of these efforts will determine whether China's ambitions align with addressing climate change collaboratively or preparing for potential conflict.
The Backstage of Ukraines Democratisation Progress | Viktoriya Bryndza Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-02-06 | Ukraine has made significant efforts to democratise its political landscape since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite facing challenges such as low institutional trust and constant external pressure, Ukraine has shown resilience in its commitment to democratic principles, with the Maidan Revolution in 2014 serving as an example of Ukrainians' desire for greater political independence and accountability.Currently, civil society in Ukraine is keeping authoritarianism at bay: fighting against external pressure but struggling to move further toward democracy due to a lack of security in the society and low institutional trust. Furthermore, public understanding of the rule of law is low due to the threats coming from the post-totalitarian state.This talk offers Ukrainian sociologist Viktoriya Bryndza's viewpoint on Ukraine's democratisation efforts and progress. She considers historical and geographical aspects and modern generation and informational shifts in Ukraine society as a part of her research.Why is it important to keep supporting Ukraine? What is needed for the country to evolve into a fully functional democratic society? What will a democratic Ukraine look like? AIIA VIC warmly invites you to join this thought-provoking discussion on Ukraine's path to democracy.
Where Will Taiwan’s New Team Take the Island – and the Indo-Pacific? Australian Institute of International Affairs 2024-01-25 | Join the Griffith Asia Institute and AIIA Queensland for a panel discussion with leading experts on Taiwan, just six days after its crucial January 13 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Implementation of the UN Youth Peace and Security Agenda in Southeast Asia | Erika Yague Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-11-29 | Interview conducted by Isabella Hollewand with AIIA Queensland.
Held Hostage: National values, diplomacy and friendship | Dr Sean Turnell Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-11-17 | The 2023 Plimsoll Lecture by Australian economist, and political prisoner Professor Sean Turnell.Even before Sean Turnell spent 650 days of wrongful imprisonment in Myanmar, his story was remarkable.From humble working-class beginnings in the suburbs of Sydney, Sean followed his humanitarian heart and become a world-class expert on the Burmese economy, believing that the right economic policies could provide prosperity for its suffering people. It was this reputation and philosophy that led him to becoming the economic advisor of Myanmar’s democratically elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.Three days after Suu Kyi was deposed in a military coup and arrested, Sean was placed in solitary confinement by armed military police under fabricated charges. During his long imprisonment in Myanmar, friends, fellow economists, institutions, and governments from around the world rallied together in a remarkable campaign for his release.Join Professor Sean Turnell for the 2023 Plimsoll lecture, and listen to his extraordinary story of hope, resilience, and the power of friends. What unfolds in this conversation will be more than just personal reflections, but also deep insights into the dynamics of international relations, the role of civil society, and the power of unity in promoting democratic values worldwide.
Australia’s Role in International Science Cooperation | Anna-Maria Arabia Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-11-17 | The AIIA ACT Branch is excited to host Ms Anna-Maria Arabia, the Chief Executive of the Australian Academy of Science who will address the topic of Australia's Role in International Science Cooperation. Ms Arabia will discuss the establishment of the International Science Council Regional Focal Point for Asia and the Pacific and the role the Australian Academy of Science will play in hosting the Regional Focal point for the next five years. She will discuss the Asia-Pacific Regional Focus Point's functions and ambitions as well as the ways in which global science systems are evolving (or need to evolve) to enable solutions for sustainability.
Youth Leadership for Peace and Security: a Global and Regional Perspective | Dr Helen Berents Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-11-07 | Youth make up a majority of the population in most violence-affected contexts, yet they have been frequently overlooked in peacebuilding efforts. The unanimous passage of UN Security Council resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security in 2015 recognised for the first time the important contribution of youth for the 'maintenance of international peace and security'. It has led to the establishment of a new international agenda for youth inclusion that has been adopted by international organisations, states, and civil society actors around the world.Southeast Asia and the Pacific has been radically overlooked in the first seven years of the Youth, Peace and Security agenda despite being one of the youngest regions in the world with a median age of 28 years old. Recently, regional momentum for the agenda has accelerated, including attention from the ASEAN and the adoption of a National Action Plan on Youth, Peace and Security by the Philippines in 2022 (only the fourth globally). This talk examines how youth have come to be taken seriously by institutions internationally, before highlighting some key tensions and opportunities that have emerged with the agenda and pointing to possible directions in the region. Paying meaningful attention to youth leadership in peacebuilding offers opportunities for building more durable, inclusive peace in our region and beyond
Climate Overshoot and the Path to COP28 | Dr Jonathan Symons Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-27 | Since negotiation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), the goal of international climate governance has been to avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." That goal has come to be defined in terms of limiting temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C. Today we are teetering on the brink of passing this threshold. So far in 2023, temperatures have reached 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels about one third of the time. In response, the international community is beginning to ask how we can manage this period of "overshoot" and work toward bringing temperatures back down.The Climate Overshoot Commission is a group of world leaders that was tasked by the Paris Peace Forum with the goal of recommending a comprehensive strategy to limit harms during the period of overshoot beyond agreed warming goals. Last month, the Commission released its final report in which it makes recommendations concerning the potential role of four kinds of responses to climate overshoot: cutting emissions to mitigate warming; adapting to the changing climate; removing carbon that is already in the atmosphere or ocean; exploring interventions to limit warming by intentionally reflecting sunlight into space. In this talk, Dr Jonathan Symons examines the international political controversies associated with these four possible climate responses, and asks how global climate politics is changing in the lead-up to COP28 (UAE).
Russia and the Ukraine War | Professor Emeritus Graeme Gill Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-25 | As the war in Ukraine approaches the eighteen-month mark and the Ukrainian counter-offensive has fallen well short of the expectation of major early successes, the continuing capacity of both sides to continue the conflict has been called into question. On the Ukrainian side this has been discussed principally in terms of the likelihood of continuing Western support. In contrast, when observers look at the Russian side, they focus on such things as the potential crippling effect of sanctions, the growth of popular opposition to the war, and divisions within the Russian elite, as well as perceived deficiencies in the Russian military and its supply.This talk will focus on the situation inside Russia. It will survey the effect sanctions have had on the economy and on the population, and it will survey the political landscape in the wake of the crack down on opposition that has occurred associated with the war. The situation in the ruling elite will also be broached, including the meaning and fallout from the Wagner mutiny and the strength of the position of Vladimir Putin.
The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace | Sam Roggeveen Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-20 | With the global balance of power shifting, Australia will need to be able to defend itself without American help.In his new book The Echidna Strategy (Black Inc. Books, August 2023), Sam Roggeveen – director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program – overturns the conventional wisdom about Australia's security.He argues that America's security is not threatened by China's rise, and that once Australia accepts that conclusion, the entire edifice on which its security has been built shifts, requiring a fresh approach. And that despite the rapid growth of China's military, defending Australia need not be particularly difficult.The Echidna Strategy sheds new light on the contest for leadership in Asia and the strategy Australia needs to thrive. This includes a radically different approach to defence. Above all, it means a bolder Australian foreign policy, with three goals: leadership in the Pacific; a much stronger relationship with Indonesia; and a regional order centred on a gathering of its great powers. In the wake of a shift in the global power balance, how can Australia best protect itself?
AIIA Queensland - Interview with H.E. Arturo Cabrera Hidalgo, Ambassador of Ecuador Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-19 | ...
Is India Turning Authoritarian? | Professor Rahul Mukherji Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-13 | Professor Rahul Mukherji will argue that India has regressed in the direction of what comparative politics scholars call a "competitive authoritarian" regime. Competitive authoritarian regimes signify an "in-between" situation between democracy and authoritarianism. They are competitive in the sense that the democratic opposition can win elections. On the other hand, they are authoritarian because incumbents have created an uneven playing field that makes it more difficult for the democratic opposition to rise. His presentation will detail how civil society organizations in the non-communal space have been attacked. Is there a relationship between the identity of an organization and the nature of attacks, pointing towards the consolidation of a certain vision of the idea of India?
Talking up the Bush Capital Abroad: How the ACT Engages Internationally | Brendan Smyth Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-13 | In the global contest for investment and talented people, how does Canberra promote itself as a centre for innovation, creativity and art? Join us as we hear from ACT Commissioner for International Engagement, Brendan Smyth, how the ACT Government's international engagement strategy promotes Canberra as an open and diversified city with a knowledge-based economy, as well as a being an attractive place to visit, study in and work in. He will explain the approach government, industry, peak bodies, diplomatic missions and other organisations pursue to connect the ACT with overseas markets and opportunities in order to realise the 2050 Vision for Canberra.
Russias War Against Ukraine: The Whole Story | Professor Mark Edele Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-13 | In February 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a fellow East Slav state with much shared history. In Russia's War Against Ukraine – the Whole Story (Melbourne University Press, August 2023), Professor Mark Edele, a world authority on the history of the Soviet Union, explains why and how this conflict came about. His primary focus is on the different paths taken by these two former members of the Soviet Union. This event is for any concerned global citizens seeking a comprehensive understanding of the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict and its historical context.Since the implosion of that state in 1991, Ukraine has developed a vibrant, if often troubled, democracy. For an increasingly dictatorial Russian political elite, including but not limited to Vladimir Putin, Ukraine has appeared more and more threatening. Humiliated by the degradation of Russia's international standing, feeling betrayed by an expanding NATO and anxious about democratic revolutions in the former Soviet space, Putin and his allies have increasingly retreated into a resentful ultra-nationalism. Dreams of past imperial glory stand in place of any attempt to solve the problems of the present.Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine came as a shock to most of the world. In order to understand why this happened, a growing army of self-declared experts provided explanations often mis-representing the history of Ukraine and of Russia and mis-representing the pre-history of this war and the role of outside forces. As a historian of the Soviet Union and its successor states, Mark felt compelled to set the record straight. Watching this talk will provide insight into one of the most geopolitically significant and complex conflicts of our time.
Forgotten Warriors A History of Women on the Front Line | Associate Professor Sarah Percy Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-13 | From Boudicca to Ukraine, battlefields have always contained a surprising number of women. Tracing the long history of female fighters, Forgotten Warriors puts the record straight, exploring how war became an all-male space, and getting to the bottom of why women were allowed to be astronauts a full thirty years before they were allowed to fight in combat.From the Mino, the all-female army that protected Dahomey from the West for two hundred years to the Night Witches, Soviet flying aces that decimated the Nazis; from the real story of Joan of Arc to the cross-dressing soldiers whose disguises were so effective the men around them never realized who they were fighting with, Sarah Percy shines a fascinating new light on the history of warfare. And against a backdrop of sieges and desperate battles, rebellions and civil wars, a series of extraordinary women come alive on the page, determined not to be passive victims.Every country has their tomb to the unknown warrior, picking out one unnamed body to represent the sacrifices of thousands of others. As Forgotten Warriors shows, those overlooked soldiers could well be female. Their heroic and compelling stories need to be heard.
Managing Past, Present and Future Pandemics | Professor Raina MacIntyre Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-11 | World-leading epidemiologist Raina MacIntyre examines pandemics through the lens of history, asking what lessons we have learned and how we might navigate the new frontiers of bio-security.Professor MacIntyre's work has revealed a recurrent theme of denial, silence and cover-up around unnatural epidemics, along with the powerful vested interests at play. Drawing on quantum advances in genetic engineering and synthetic biology, she calls for a cross-disciplinary, global approach to safeguarding our future. She envisages a future where human genome editing and the resurrection of extinct viruses might be the norm.Professor MacIntyre argues that the solution to the existential threat we face from biotechnology will not come from scientists, but from the community having a voice in the future of the planet and of humanity.
The Island Whose Fate Determines Australias: Taiwan | Rowan Callick OBE FAIIA Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-10-11 | Taiwan is more prosperous, more democratic and better governed than most UN members, and in many ways can be perceived by Australians as more "normal" than most countries. Its population is similar to Australia's, also with a similar proportion of Indigenous people. It is Australia's fourth largest export market, has placed $A65 billion funds in Australia, and provides the largest number of young people who come to Australia for "working holidays." It is a high-tech hub, producing for instance 90% of the world's most advanced chips.It is holding presidential and parliamentary elections in January, whose outcome is difficult to forecast. Its ruling Democratic Progressive Party is by no means assured of victory in either poll. Today, only about 4 per cent of people in Taiwan view themselves as exclusively Chinese. But the People's Republic of China wishes – with ever-increasing intensity – to subsume Taiwan.How can – or should – Australia and Australian institutions relate to Taiwan? What might happen in the event of conflict – in whatever form – across the 180km-wide Taiwan Strait? Does the Ukraine war offer insights? What deterrents might prove most effective to prevent conflict and support the status quo? What impact might Taiwan's fate have on Australia's?
Mongolia’s Foreign Policy: Northeast Asia | Foreign Minister Battsetseg Matmunkh Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-09-22 | AIIA ACT Branch is privileged to host a presentation by the Foreign Minister of Mongolia, HE Ms Battsetseg Batmunkh. Ms Battsetseg is paying her first visit to Australia as Foreign Minister and, in her only public engagement in Canberra, will provide an insight into landlocked Mongolia's multifaceted foreign policy, with a key focus on its approach towards Northeast Asia. Over the last twenty years, Mongolia has demonstrated a firm commitment to UN peacekeeping and has pledged to increase Mongolian female peacekeepers by 15 per cent by 2027.Mongolia has an internationally recognized nuclear-weapon free zone status. The country has promoted the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through its Ulaanbaatar Dialogue which serves as a confidence-building measure to bring together other stakeholders.
Should we give city diplomacy a chance? | Professor Michele Acuto Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-09-21 | Some of today's most pressing global governance challenges, from the climate crisis to collapsing biodiversity and pressing pandemic threats, have very tangible implications on our streets. Cities have not been standing idle, and a busy realm of "city diplomacy" has emerged in the past three decades across a wide variety of geopolitical areas. From United Nations agencies and frameworks, major businesses, academia and not least a growing cast of states, the role of cities in tackling shared international challenges is a key dimension all diplomats and policymakers need to grasp rapidly in an increasingly urbanised world. Building on a review of how the world of cities' international affairs has evolved and on how multilateral, non-governmental and state actors have engaged with it, Professor Michele Acuto will outline key recent innovations, practical ways in which city diplomacy and international urban cooperation initiatives are presenting effective innovations in international relations, and led a discussion as to why we need to care about our local mayors, and how we can and should build better 'urban' expertise at all level of foreign policymaking. Anyone is welcome to register!
A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War: An Update | Richard Iron CMG OBE Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-30 | The Russo-Ukraine War is the bloodiest, most extensive and most dangerous war of our time. It has now been eighteen months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and nine months since Richard Iron's last strategic analysis of the war. There is absolutely no certainty of how this war will evolve over the coming months nor how, eventually, it might end.Richard Iron will explore the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter offences and the consequences of the battle over the Black Sea, an increasingly important area of military and geopolitical tensions. He will look particularly at the state of Russian internal politics, Putin's authority after the Wagner Group mutiny and the possibility of regime collapse.Can either side achieve their military goals? How is Western support for Ukraine holding up in light of recent events? What does this mean for Ukraine's future?
Growth Among Neighbours: Queensland as Australias Pacific State | Leata Alaimoana Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-30 | Queensland see's itself as Australia's Pacific state. With the Pacific Islands only a 1.5 hour flight away, its close proximity opens up trade and investment opportunities for both Queensland and the Pacific.Queensland is committed to the region and will drive international trade and investment – with both legacy and sustainability. The Trade Commissioner will discuss the ways that Queensland is engaging with the Pacific, working with 'Team Australia', the opportunities and delivering on the Pacific trade strategy.
Latin American perspectives on the Asia-Pacific Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-25 | Presentations by HE Arturo Cabrera-Hidalgo, HE Jaime Chomali and Diana Carvajal ToscanoRelations between Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region are at a crossroads. It took less than 20 years for Asia to become Latin America's second largest economic partner. With the emergence of new trade arrangements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2020, Latin American countries have an opportunity to deepen trade and investment links with Asia even further. At the same time, competition between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific is heightening regional security concerns. How will Latin American countries address trade barriers, promote diversified relationships and deal with rising strategic tension in the Asia-Pacific? What are the prospects that the Pacific Alliance, formed in 2012 and comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru - with Ecuador a prospective member, can serve as a bridge linking Asia and the Americas?Join us for a lively discussion about Latin America's perspectives on the Asia-Pacific region with a panel of Ambassadors from Ecuador and Chile and the Chargé d'Affaires of Colombia.
Border Crossings: My Journey as an Outsider | Mohammad Chowdhury & The Hon. Jaala Pulford Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-25 | Whether negotiating the mind-games of border security services or performing ablutions in a London bathroom, Mohammad Chowdhury's life travelling the world brings daily challenges.Mohammad Chowdhury's new book Border Crossings: My Journey as an Outsider (NewSouth Books, July 2023) is a thrilling ride from the city of minarets to the heights of picture-perfect skyscrapers. A journey of finding one's own identity, it is the story of a British born, Bangladeshi man of Muslim faith, trying to reconcile his western and eastern identities and the inconsistencies between the two.Hustling his way through days and nights negotiating one cultural micro-adjustment after another, Chowdhury's story reflects our own struggles to find a place where we truly belong.AIIA Victoria invites you to join author Mohammad Chowdhury and The Honorable Jaala Pulford for an intimate fireside chat as he discusses his journey across cultures and the journey of someone living and growing up in diaspora.
Views of and from the Pacific Neighbourhood | Dame Meg Taylor in Conversation with Stefan Armbruster Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-23 | The Pacific islands region looms larger in the imagination of Australians than has been the case for many years. The place of Pacific countries and communities in big conversations, whether related to climate, pandemics, economic growth, cultural exchange, or security is becoming more and more mainstream. Increased and improved reporting by the Australian media has made a contribution to this, particularly as they engage more often with the respected voices of Pacific leaders.Join Griffith Asia Institute and AIIA Queensland for an event that brings together Dame Meg Taylor, an esteemed member of the Pacific Elders Voice and former Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum, and Stefan Armbruster, Griffith Pacific Hub industry fellow, award winning journalist and SBS correspondent for Queensland who has a longstanding record of Pacific coverage and reporting.
Bangladesh in the Asia Pacific Region | H.E. Mr. M. Allama Siddiki Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-18 | AIIA ACT Branch is thrilled to be hosting H.E. Mr. M. Allama Siddiki, High Commissioner of Bangladesh to Australia, to deliver a presentation on Bangladesh in the Asia-Pacific region. Bangladesh's position in the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with its focus on economic development, demographic dividend, and peacekeeping missions, presents a compelling case for its flourishing trajectory.Its strategic location, thriving industries, energetic workforce, and commitment to peace demonstrate its potential to emerge as a key player in the Asia-Pacific region.
Critical Minerals as Tools of Economic Statecraft | Namali Mackay Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-16 | Join us either in-person or online as Managing Director of Critical Minerals Association Australia, Namali Mackay, discusses the geopolitics of critical minerals and the need for supply chains to remain resilient to ensure the longevity of an industry crucial for our energy future and global supply.Critical minerals have been making the headlines as Western and allied nations race to increase their sovereign capability and secure their downstream manufacturing sectors' needs. The 'criticality' of metals and mineral varies from country to country based on a nation's industrial, defence and economic strategies. Sudden supply shocks and geopolitical disturbances can swiftly shift the criticality of a commodity.Critical mineral supply chains, from mine to end-product, are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to heavy monopolisation, particularly in the midstream processing and refining space. As a result, both the miners and the manufacturers are reliant on China for a steady supply of refined critical materials. China's export ban on rare earths to Japan following a political dispute was one example of how vulnerable many nations are to securing critical minerals for end products such as electric vehicles, phones, and wind turbines that our society and economies are now relying on. Australia plays an important role in this geopolitical puzzle – containing almost all the critical minerals required for future technologies. Australia's approach to supporting its critical minerals industry will shape not only our new energy future but also have a significant impact on the world's supply.
A global trading system fit for purpose: can law and diplomacy work together? | Weihuan Zhou Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-11 | The global trading system, with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) at its core, is being reshaped in ways that may render the system fundamentally different from how we have known it in the past. As unilateral, protectionist and beggar-thy-neighbour policies proliferate, the system is struggling to reclaim its relevance and regain continued efficacy in promoting trade liberalisation and maintaining transparency, certainty and predictability in the world economy. New policy priorities in the post-pandemic era - economic security, climate change, supply chain resilience, sustainable development - plus new geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are complicating the challenges facing the global trading system.Meeting these challenges requires reflection on what the system was designed to do and what it has achieved, then rethinking what the system should look like going forward: a process of repurposing the system and realigning its objectives. Do we want a mechanism to strictly enforce the rules? What policy space do governments need? Where is the boundary of the system? The process of reconstructing the global trading system must be driven by governments collectively, with a genuine and sustained political will for cooperation. The system's continued effectiveness and legitimacy will require a delicate balance between law and diplomacy working jointly in response to changing circumstances and new challenges.
Cultural industries and soft power diplomacy | André François Giroux and Jerome De Baecque Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-04 | Like Australia, Canada is an Indo-Pacific nation that connects into the global community as a middle power. As Canada looks to Australia and the region via an enhanced "Indo-Pacific Strategy" the decade ahead promises tremendous opportunity to build upon our strong people-to-people ties and trade through culture. Our citizens stand for human rights, Indigenous reconciliation, free trade and a rules based international order, among many other shared values.Culture is the perfect vehicle for diplomacy. The Consulate General of Canada has long partnered with Australian organisations to enhance our relationships and promote trade interests. As well as acting as a connector for diverse communities, the creative sector is a thriving industry that drives employment, innovation and global opportunity.At this event André François Giroux, Consul General of Canada in Sydney, will explore Canada's experiences of a hybrid approach to diplomacy and creative industries.Jerome de Baecque, Director of APAC for Moment Factory, will join the Consul General at this event to speak about Moment Factory's growth in the region.
Empowering Women as Peace Advocates against Political Violence | Dr. Kiriloi Ingram Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-03 | The establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2019 was a watershed moment for the struggle for peace in Mindanao, Southern Philippines. Women have played a key role in the Bangsamoro peace process and now, with the creation of the BARMM, have key position as ministers in the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), bureaucrats throughout the new government's ministries, and as civil society leaders. However, the gendered challenges facing women across the BARMM remain and continue to be exploited by violent armed groups to drive recruitment and female participation in armed conflict.Indeed, from the Maute Matriarchs to recruiters and mothers, women have played key roles in political violence across the region. Drawing on field research and my experiences working in Mindanao, I explore the gendered dynamics of violent extremism and peacebuilding across the BARMM, and the key challenges facing the region over the next three years of the transition extension.
Tales From the Hague | Professor Tim McCormack Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | Tim McCormack is a Professor of International Law and the Special Adviser on War Crimes to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands. He has recently returned to Tasmania after 2 months at the ICC working closely with the current Tim Hawkins Scholar, Gabby Gee. Tim will provide an update on latest developments at the Court.In association with the Australian Institute of International Affairs and the International Law Discussion Group.
The Palestine Laboratory | Antony Loewenstein Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | For more than 50 years, the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza has given the Israeli state invaluable experience in controlling an 'enemy' population, the Palestinians. It's here that they have perfected the architecture of control, using the occupied Palestinian territories as a testing ground for weaponry and surveillance technology that they then export around the world.The Palestine Laboratory shows in depth and for the first time how Israel has become a leader in developing spying technology and defence hardware that fuels some of the globe's most brutal conflicts — from the Pegasus software that hacked Jeff Bezos's and Jamal Khashoggi's phones, and the weapons sold to the Myanmar army that has murdered thousands of Rohingyas, to the drones being used by the European Union to monitor refugees in the Mediterranean who are left to drown.In a global investigation that uncovers secret documents, based on revealing interviews and on-the-ground reporting, Antony Loewenstein shows how, as ethno-nationalism grows in the 21st century, Israel has built the ultimate tools for despots and democracies.
An Evening with the Interns Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | Five of this semester's interns will give a presentation on a topic of their own choice:Cooperation between the Gulf MonarchiesThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) aims to effect 'coordination, cooperation and integration' between its members on regional economic, political and security issues. The Gulf monarchies are, however, increasingly foregoing shared approaches in favour of pursuing unilateral policies, particularly in response to regional conflict. This presents a puzzle as to why states within an organisation, which seeks to foster unity between them, are pursuing contradictory projects across the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa. Roisin Browne seeks to answer this by drawing on recent events in Yemen.The Global Diffusion of Net Zero Emissions PledgesPledges to net zero emissions have rapidly become the key mechanism through which countries and businesses aim to limit dangerous climate change. The number of countries with 'net zero targets' rose dramatically from 24 in 2018 to almost 150 by the end of 2021. Today, 88% of emissions, 92% of GDP and 89% of the population are covered by a 'net zero' target. The quick emergence and voluntary nature of pledges has seen them differ discursively and behaviourally between actors. Isobel Logan will explore the state of net zero pledges, the key political challenges that are faced and what this means for the ability of the international system to address climate change over the next 30 years.Interdependence between the United States and China in the technology sectorRyan Lung will discuss the symbiosis between the technology industries of the United States and China. For the past two decades, ideas and capital have flowed freely between Silicon Valley and China's technology sector, with significant benefits for both parties. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China may, however, unravel this relationship. Concerns from the United States government about US capital and expertise being used to aid its main geopolitical rival has led to discussion about significant restrictions on American investment in China. These developments raise important questions about the role of innovation and technology in the US-China rivalry.The Future of China and the Global Financial SystemChina is at the global forefront in digital currency development. The digital yuan will bring a period of historic change in the global financial system, improving the efficiency of financial flows and slowly challenging US dollar hegemony. Nadia Maunsell asks how China might leverage the e-CNY to increase its influence in the global economy and grapple with questions of privacy, trust in Chinese institutions, and foreign exchange controls. As China's share in the world's foreign reserves increases, how might other nations respond?National Security and International Trade: A New Battleground for China and Western PowersIn recent years the security exception within the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has become more prominent in international trade disputes with the WTO's multilateral trading system. Global powers are beginning to utilise this security exception to further strengthen their national security agendas. Recent cases have begun to suggest the potential scope and application of this exception. Ella Whitehurst will outline and discuss these developments and discuss them in relation to recent trade conflicts between the China and the West, as well as identifying future challenges for the WTO in managing the interplay between security and economics.
The Chungking Follies: Opening Australia’s First Diplomatic Mission in China | Prof James Cotton Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | Sir Frederic Eggleston and a young Keith Waller opened Australia's first diplomatic mission in China in 1941. Waller's colourful account of that episode is well known, and aficionados of Australian diplomatic history will recall pictures of Sir Frederick in a sedan chair. What are almost unknown are the stories of the supporting cast, the External Affairs employees without whom the fiendishly difficult Chungking mission would never have been established.They included a former Shanghai policeman, a convicted (and habitual) criminal, a glamorous polyglot Russian, and a future member of the Australian Intelligence Corps and also British Force 136. This talk will be devoted to the backstory of the Chungking Legation, illustrated with photographs many of which have not hitherto been seen in Australia.
Shifty Shades of Grey: Dark Fleet Shipping Sanctioned Oil around the World | Michelle Wiese Bockmann Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | Shipping has long been one of the more opaque of global industries. Now many operations in the oil sector, which accounts for nearly a third of all seaborne trade, have become still more secretive.A new "dark fleet" of ageing tankers with obscure ownership, flying flags of convenience, has emerged in response to Western sanctions to ship oil from Iran, Venezuela and Russia around the world.4 million barrels of oil are being shipped daily through some of the world's busiest waterways on largely elderly, unregulated vessels exploiting gaps in maritime conventions and undermining the integrity of global trade, with little knowledge or understanding of the environmental and safety risks posed.What exactly is a "dark" tanker? What are the characteristics and business models used by shipowners to obfuscate their involvement, and track the unprecedented impact this is having on crude shipping markets? What are the potential environmental consequences?AIIA Victoria invites you to join energy commodities and shipping analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann to discuss this issue and its implications.
Revealing Secrets (Melbourne Launch) | Clare Birgin and Prof. John Blaxland Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-08-02 | For a long time, the Australian Signals intelligence (or Sigint) story has been kept secret. Until now…Revealing Secrets: An Unofficial History of Australian Signals Intelligence and the Advent of Cyber (UNSW Press, May 2023) is a comprehensive account of Australian Signals intelligence, its efforts at revealing the secrets of other nations, and keeping ours safe.John Blaxland and Clare Birgin explore the royal commissions and reviews that shaped Australia's intelligence community in the 20th century, reveal what can be told without access to secret records, and consider the advent and the impact of cyber.Why does Australia have a national signals intelligence agency? What does it do and why is it controversial? And how significant are its ties with key partners, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand, to this arrangement?AIIA Victoria welcomes Professor the Hon Gareth Evans to introduce authors Professor John Blaxland and Clare Birgin as they discuss the history of Australian Signals intelligence and the extraordinary challenges posed by the new cyber universe. Copies of the book will be available for sale and for signing.
Sports Diplomacy: Opportunities and Challenges through the Green and Gold Decade | Stephanie Brantz Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-07-28 | The biggest ever FIFA Women's World Cup is set to kick off Down Under on July 10 this year. It's one of multiple large events Australia can leverage in the coming decade to market itself to the world and harness the audience to build economic and diplomatic value.Sport has the power to change lives and Australia is committed to using the power of sport to promote gender equality, diversity and inclusion. These international events present Australia with a unique opportunity to showcase a modern and diverse nation – with approximately a quarter of its people born overseas and representing 200 different ancestries.As a socially and culturally diverse nation how do we ensure that we use the common language of sport to strengthen our connections with our regional and global partners and how significant are the challenges in current dialogue around Gender equality, First Nations representation and our relationships with Asian and Pacific neighbours?What is the Legacy of the Green and Gold Decade - How do we make a real impact?
Australias tools of statecraft | Melissa Conley-Tyler, William Leben and Bridi Rice Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-07-28 | How can Australia use its tools of statecraft in international engagement?Policymakers have increasingly spoken of the need to use "all the tools of statecraft" in Australia's international engagement. The idea has taken hold that in a difficult and contested times, we need all the different elements that connect Australia to the world to be pushing in the same direction. No one doubts the scale of international challenges. Australia is only one country among many, but the multiplying effects of having different instruments working in concert means Australia can do more with relatively less.Panellists will outline Australia's tools of statecraft and outline a strategy for encouraging defence, foreign affairs, development, trade, immigration, education, energy, and other policy areas to work together to contribute to Australia's capacity to influence the world around it. They will draw on a recent report by the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D) which is the result of consultations with dozens of current and former officials working across Australian foreign, trade, development, intelligence, and defence policy.
UN Peacekeepers and Parallel Forces: Challenges and Opportunities | Dr Shannon Zimmerman Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-07-28 | The UN has long recognised the value of partnerships to reinforce the effectiveness of peace operations. Between 1978 and 2009, 60% of UN missions operated alongside parallel deployments from regional and subregional organisations, alliances, and coalitions. This percentage has only increased in recent years.In an ideal world, parallel operations would be carefully integrated with UN peace operations, leveraging their comparative advantages.Unfortunately, the conditions under which peacekeepers deploy and the volatile environments they operate in, are far from ideal. Instead, multiple actors are deployed ad hoc into conflicts, usually without formal structures for integrating or aligning their objectives. In some cases, these actors find ways to work together, becoming stronger and more effective through their cooperation. In other cases, poor communication, contradictory priorities, and conflicting political objectives result in peacekeepers and parallel operations actively undermining each other's efforts.To understand the dynamics between parallel forces, Dr Shannon Zimmerman examines the two most recent UN Peace Operations, the UN multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Both missions deployed alongside parallel French Forces and European Union Training Missions. How can the interactions between the UN forces and the parallel French and EU forces be assessed? What synergies, and conversely what obstacles were identified? What are the recommendations for future parallel deployments?AIIA Victoria welcomes back Dr Shannon Zimmerman to discuss her upcoming research on the dynamics between parallel forces in UN peace operations.
From Premier to Ambassador, leading the key diplomatic post on Singapore | Hon. Will Hodgman Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-07-26 | Will Hodgman was appointed Australia's top diplomat to Singapore at the height of the global pandemic, leading a team that strengthened relations between our countries in trade, the green and digital economies, defence and public health care.Previously Will served as Premier of Tasmania for six years, leading a government that took Tasmania's economy from the worst performing in the nation to the best for the first time ever, and one of the first places on the planet to achieve zero net emissions.Prior to entering Parliament Will practised law as a barrister and solicitor in Australia and the United Kingdom, including as a criminal lawyer and prosecuting cases of child abuse.
AUKUS: Geopolitical Implications Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-07-06 | Since the trilateral AUKUS security pact between Australia, the UK and the United States was announced on 15 September 2021, much attention has focused on the issue of the nuclear-powered submarines which Australia will eventually acquire (the so-called "Pillar 1").The submarine plan is just one part of the proposed deepening of security collaboration among the three countries. The agreement also covers 'Pillar II' which covers improved technological capacity and information sharing.What will cooperation on hypersonic missiles, cyber operations, quantum computing and other technological innovation mean for security in the region? And does this mean the military hardware may turn out to be of secondary importance to the agreement's role as a broader advanced technology accelerator?Join us to discuss the foundational agreement and geopolitical implications, the risks, and advantages for each of the countries involved and the impact in the wider Indo-Pacific region.Co-hosting with the AUKUS Forum, AIIA Victoria invites you to this expert panel in the first of a series on AUKUS to discuss the geopolitical implications.AIIA Victoria gratefully acknowledges the Walter Trust fund for their support of our young members.
Australias Goldilocks Defence Strategic Review: Too Cold, Too Hot or Just Right? | Dr. Peter Layton Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-06-16 | Like many new governments before it, the Albanese Labor government began a major review of defence policy soon after taking office. The 2022/23 Defence Strategic Review was unusual in being undertaken in a novel manner, in using three external consultants and crucially by having a well-defined intent.The previous LNP government had determined that the long-held assumption of a 10-year warning of high-intensity military conflict was no longer true. The Australian Defence Force might now be called on to fight a war at much shorter notice. Moreover, coercive grey zone actions had already begun. Accordingly, the review was designed to propose how "to optimise Defence capability and posture to meet the nation's security challenges over the period 2023-24 to 2032-33 and beyond."In a time of geostrategic uncertainty and possible dangers, this is an important aim but has it been, or rather, can it be achieved? Is the review able to "underpin our Defence policy for decades to come," as Deputy Prime Minister Marles claims?
Revealing Secrets | Clare Birgin & Prof John Blaxland Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-06-09 | Clare Birgin and John Blaxland take you on a tour d'horizon of their new book, Revealing Secrets: An unofficial history of Australian Signals intelligence & the advent of cyber.Revealing Secrets is a compelling account of Australian Signals intelligence, its efforts at revealing the secrets of other nations, and keeping ours safe. It brings to light clever Australians whose efforts were for so long entirely unknown or overlooked. Blaxland and Birgin traverse the royal commissions and reviews that shaped Australia's intelligence community in the 20th century and consider the advent and the impact of cyber.Drawing on insights and anecdotes from the book, they will discuss how signals intelligence and its practitioners have influenced international affairs and continue to do so today. They will explore the secrecy around signals intelligence, along with the need for the right balance of oversight and accountability. Finally, they will touch on what the history of signals intelligence means for Australia and Australians.
Israeli and Australian foreign policy: similarities and differences | Dr Dror Doron Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-06-09 | The many differences between Australia and Israel are easy to identify. But in the realm of national security and strategic thinking, it seems there are quite a few parallel lines. Australia and Israel face the common national security challenges of nations not naturally integrated in their surroundings.As the Indo-Pacific becomes an arena of power competition with the potential of military escalation, trying to highlight the resemblance in the challenges faced by Australia and Israel might add relevant insights to the Australian evolving geo-strategic framework.
Turkey’s Political Leaders: Authoritarian Tendencies in a Democratic State | Dr Tezcan Gümüs Australian Institute of International Affairs 2023-06-07 | Recorded on the 1st of June, 2023In Turkey's Political Leaders: Authoritarian Tendencies in a Democratic State (Edinburgh University Press, April 2023) Dr Tezcan Gümüş examines the role of the political leaders in Turkey's democratic system. He argues that the leaders' values, beliefs and practices underwritten by authoritarianism have resulted in the tenuous existence of democracy, oscillating between simply enduring and failure during the periods they occupied the seats of political power.What are the implications of the 14 May Turkish elections? How will this reflect the way in which Turkish democracy is influenced as an institution? What lessons and insights can be learned from the role that political leaders play in the survival or failure of democracy?AIIA Victoria invites you to join Dr Tezcan Gümüş in conversation with Dr David Tittensor, as he discusses his recently published book.
