Perun | Global Arms Exports - Winners, losers & trends in the race to rearm @PerunAU | Uploaded March 2024 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share.
Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending - they are in fact from an IISS publication
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply.
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports:
youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Cover image from:
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
US FY 2023 Arms Transfers – US Department of State
state.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade
US DSCA – Poland JASSM Purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-agm-158b-2-joint-air-surface-standoff-missile-extended-range
Featured Rheinmetall statements and reports
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/03/2024-03-14-rheinmetall-financial-figures-2023
Reporting on Swiss policy
rferl.org/a/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.html
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-swiss-envoy-defends-ban-on-ammo-exports/a-65416234
reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03
Increase in NATO defence spending
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htmIncrease in global defence spending
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/global-defence-spending-rises-9-per-cent-to-record-22tn-dollars
Reporting on Indian S-400s
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-aims-to-deliver-two-s-400-air-defence-units-by-2024-end-as-payment-woes-ease-up/articleshow/103072429.cms?from=mdr
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/putins-war-delays-delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron/articleshow/90867785.cms
Reporting on refinery strikes
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-says
Stockpiling
reuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19
Reporting on contract losses
airandspaceforces.com/northrop-grumman-1-56-billion-loss-b-21
Featured image on Red Sea operations
reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-bulk-carrier-number-us-war-destroyers-red-sea-2024-03-09
US interest in RoK shipbuilders
breakingdefense.com/2024/02/in-south-korea-del-toro-courts-major-shipbuilders-to-set-up-shop-in-us
RoK Arms Deliveries
japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/16/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-factory
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-army-orders-100-additional-k9-howitzers
navaltoday.com/2020/05/19/philippine-navys-first-2600-ton-frigate-delivered-sets-sail-for-the-philippines
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/09/poland-south-korea-wrangle-over-big-ticket-weapons-financing
breakingdefense.com/2023/03/can-germanys-big-cats-resist-south-koreas-black-panther-invasion
defensenews.com/air/2024/02/02/south-korea-to-start-mass-production-of-kf-21-fighter-jets
Delivery of Italian built FREMM
navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/first-italian-built-fremm-delivered-to-egypt-reaches-alexandria
JF-17
airforce-technology.com/news/nigerian-air-force-inducts-three-jf-17-thunder-multirole-aircraft
USN supplier bottlenecks (featuring mk48)
defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles
Turkish Exports
defensenews.com/industry/2024/01/08/turkeys-defense-aerospace-exports-rose-by-25-last-year
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard
00:06:57 — The Market Shifts
00:07:58 — The USA
00:13:42 — Europe
00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers
00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers?
00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory
01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes
01:04:56 — Channel Update
Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share.
Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending - they are in fact from an IISS publication
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply.
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports:
youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Cover image from:
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
US FY 2023 Arms Transfers – US Department of State
state.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade
US DSCA – Poland JASSM Purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-agm-158b-2-joint-air-surface-standoff-missile-extended-range
Featured Rheinmetall statements and reports
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/03/2024-03-14-rheinmetall-financial-figures-2023
Reporting on Swiss policy
rferl.org/a/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.html
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-swiss-envoy-defends-ban-on-ammo-exports/a-65416234
reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03
Increase in NATO defence spending
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htmIncrease in global defence spending
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/global-defence-spending-rises-9-per-cent-to-record-22tn-dollars
Reporting on Indian S-400s
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-aims-to-deliver-two-s-400-air-defence-units-by-2024-end-as-payment-woes-ease-up/articleshow/103072429.cms?from=mdr
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/putins-war-delays-delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron/articleshow/90867785.cms
Reporting on refinery strikes
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-says
Stockpiling
reuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19
Reporting on contract losses
airandspaceforces.com/northrop-grumman-1-56-billion-loss-b-21
Featured image on Red Sea operations
reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-bulk-carrier-number-us-war-destroyers-red-sea-2024-03-09
US interest in RoK shipbuilders
breakingdefense.com/2024/02/in-south-korea-del-toro-courts-major-shipbuilders-to-set-up-shop-in-us
RoK Arms Deliveries
japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/16/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-factory
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-army-orders-100-additional-k9-howitzers
navaltoday.com/2020/05/19/philippine-navys-first-2600-ton-frigate-delivered-sets-sail-for-the-philippines
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/09/poland-south-korea-wrangle-over-big-ticket-weapons-financing
breakingdefense.com/2023/03/can-germanys-big-cats-resist-south-koreas-black-panther-invasion
defensenews.com/air/2024/02/02/south-korea-to-start-mass-production-of-kf-21-fighter-jets
Delivery of Italian built FREMM
navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/first-italian-built-fremm-delivered-to-egypt-reaches-alexandria
JF-17
airforce-technology.com/news/nigerian-air-force-inducts-three-jf-17-thunder-multirole-aircraft
USN supplier bottlenecks (featuring mk48)
defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles
Turkish Exports
defensenews.com/industry/2024/01/08/turkeys-defense-aerospace-exports-rose-by-25-last-year
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard
00:06:57 — The Market Shifts
00:07:58 — The USA
00:13:42 — Europe
00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers
00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers?
00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory
01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes
01:04:56 — Channel Update
