PerunFor decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.
In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.
I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the source sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Russian media on Indian Su-30 program https://sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.html
00:00 — Opening Words 01:18 — What Am I Talking About? 02:00 — Caveats & Notes 02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse 14:57 — What is Driving the Decline? 27:15 — Filling the Void? 35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter 45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector? 55:15 — Channel Update
The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian ExportsPerun2024-03-17 | For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.
In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.
I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the source sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Russian media on Indian Su-30 program https://sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.html
00:00 — Opening Words 01:18 — What Am I Talking About? 02:00 — Caveats & Notes 02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse 14:57 — What is Driving the Decline? 27:15 — Filling the Void? 35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter 45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector? 55:15 — Channel UpdateExploding pagers, Hezbollah & Israel - The events, outcomes & value of supply chain securityPerun2024-10-20 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
Beginning on September 16th, thousands of small explosions occurred across Lebanon - not caused by airstrikes or artillery, but by the detonation of thousands of Hezbollah issued communication devices.
In this episode, I discuss the detonations, explore how they may have occurred, and ask what lessons they might highlight regarding the importance of supply chain security.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:45 — What Am I Talking About (And Not Talking About)? 00:03:21 — Background 00:09:24 — Setting Up The Pager Strike 00:19:55 — The Day Of The Pagers 00:27:14 — The Proxy Problem 00:29:38 — Lessons On Supply Chain Integrity 00:38:23 — A Kiwiland Dilemma 00:48:46 — Personalised Deterrence? 00:57:06 — Closing Thoughts 00:59:12 — Channel UpdateKorea & The Changing Global Arms Market - Inside Koreas Biggest Defence Exhibition (KADEX)Perun2024-10-13 | Since 2022, global demand in the arms market has expanded rapidly as many countries rush to restock on systems and munitions as well as adopt new technologies that were increasingly proving their worth in Ukraine.
In that environment, the Republic of Korea has become an increasingly prolific arms exporter, with the Korean defence industry working to sustain not just the ROK Armed Forces, but also inking major contracts with buyers from the Asia Pacific to Europe.
So following an invitation from the organisers of Korea's largest Defence Exhibition, the Korea Army International Defence Industry Exhibition (KADEX), I thought it was time for something a little different this week.
Join me for a bit of a Perun road-trip, as we look at range of Korean and international systems, the themes emerging from the event, and what it might indicate about the evolving defence market, and the RoK's role in it.
Thousands of booths, tens of thousands of attendees, and one Aussie trying to bring you an inside look at it all.
Thanks again to the organisers, my translator, and those who accepted (sometimes very long) interviews over the course of the event.
Reading and Sourcing (To follow within 24 hours due to late release)
Note much of the content contained in this episode was specifically gathered for this channel on location..
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Please also refer to the disclosures in this video and find further details on KADEX at: kadexaroka.com/eng
Timestamps: 00:00 — Opening 01:41 — What Am I Talking About 02:09 — KADEX 06:16 — UAS Are Everywhere 15:44 — Next Generation Armour 24:00 — Automation 27:04 — Fires - Munitions 33:01 — Fires - Rocket Artillery Systems 36:20 — Fires - SPGs 45:17 — Watching Ukraine - Tactics 49:00 — Watching Ukraine - Environment 50:53 — Observations On The Conference 59:52 — Channel UpdateRussia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine - Atomic Coercion, Ukraine & the Nuclear ThresholdPerun2024-10-06 | Sponsored by Ground News: Go to https://ground.news/perun to compare news coverage, spot media bias, and avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription.
We first discussed Russia's nuclear doctrine in 2022 - arguing that it suggested nuclear use was far less likely that some feared.
Now, Russia is announcing changes to that doctrine, and so I want to look at what's changing, why, and what it might mean for the risk of nuclear war.
Given the topic, expect the jokes to be a bit sparse...
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words 01:28 — What Am I Talking About? 03:56 — Doctrine And Strategy 07:21 — Russian Nuclear Doctrine 15:22 — Nuclear Coercion In 2022 27:18 — The New Doctrine 31:39 — Catalyst 38:02 — The Threat 45:07 — Does Doctrine Matter? 46:54 — The Logic Of Nuclear (Non)Use 52:17 — Nuclear Blackmail 59:50 — Channel UpdateUkraines Ammo Depot strikes - How Complacency (and drones) Destroyed Russian BasesPerun2024-09-29 | Ammunition availability can make all the difference in a war, but only if it makes it to the troops on the front, rather than being destroyed in storage.
Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions.
In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.
Additional featured imagery and coverage https://mil.in.ua/en/news/satellite-imagery-shows-that-russian-depots-near-tikhoretsk-and-oktyabrske-have-been-almost-completely-destroyed/
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words 01:40 — What Am I Talking About? 02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage 06:56 — Depots Of Interest 10:10 — The Attacks 16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion 29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation 34:31 — Damage Assessment 42:21 — Implications 52:36 — Channel UpdateThe Ukrainian Economy at War (2024) - Defence Production, Energy & EndurancePerun2024-09-22 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun
Recently, we spoke about the state of Russia's economy after more than two and a half years of war. It was characterised by strong growth but also signs of overheating, as the economy ran at or beyond capacity.
Today, I want to cover the other side, and look at how Ukraine's is holding on after extensive Russian pressure. I'll look at headline economic indicators, the budget, defence production, and the impact of attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.
Data, graphs and finances - it's sure to be a great time (if the upload is correct this time).
Funding of UA defence industry using proceeds of Russian assets https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/first-transfer-eu15-billion-proceeds-immobilised-russian-assets-made-available-support-ukraine-today-2024-07-26_en
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:26 — Looking At Ukraine 00:10:38 — Production Volumes 00:13:35 — Fiscal Stability 00:26:40 — Defence Production 00:38:08 — The Long Range Strike Campaign 00:41:11 — The Ukrainian Power Grid 00:51:45 — What Is Going On Here? 00:56:38 — Interpreting The Data 01:03:08 — A Hard Winter Ahead 01:05:03 — Channel UpdateDisappointing Systems in Ukraine - From imprecise precision munitions to explosive IFVsPerun2024-09-15 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
We've spent a lot of time in the past talking about systems that have been called 'game changers' or arguably overperformed in Ukraine, relative to either expectations, costs, or both.
Today, we look at some of the opposite - systems that may not be having the expected impact, and which might prompt some thinking in planners observing the Ukrainian experience.
BMD-4M Product Information https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/armored-combat-vehicles/bmd-4m/
US Army - FY 2025 Budget Estimates - Aircraft Procurement, Army https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2025/Base%20Budget/Procurement/Aircraft-Procurement-Army.pdf
Japan https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/japan-to-ditch-attack-helicopters#:~:text=Japan%20has%20declared%20its%20intention,five-year%20defence%20buildup%20plans
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words 00:54 — What Am I Talking About? 03:08 — Rating This 05:15 — When Precision - Isn't 07:30 — Excalibur 12:51 — GLSDB 20:10 — The Paradrop Problem 32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters 35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses 41:08 — Polish Figures 47:04 — What Could It Be Instead? 54:01 — Not The End For Rotary... 58:13 — Channel UpdateThe Russian Economy at War (2024) - Sanctions, growth, inflation & mounting risksPerun2024-09-08 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun
Since 2022, there have been wildly divergent predictions made about the way the Russian economy would hold up under pressure.
Now, deep into Q3 2024 I want to have a closer look at the Russian economy, sanctions, and the risks it faces. And for a change in perspective, we will do it primarily using Russian data.
Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):
Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 26 July 2024 - https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18870
Elvira Nabiullina’s speech at State Duma’s plenary session on Bank of Russia’s 2023 Annual Report -- https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18603
Bank of Russia Annual Report 2023 https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/49164/ar_2023_e.pdf
Rosstat - on industrial production in H1 2024 https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/112_24-07-2024.html
Featured interview with Belousov https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6428575?ref=en.thebell.io
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Also note that I have not independently verified any of the data or reporting presented in this piece, and would particularly note that significant amounts of data released by the Russian Government or related figures has been used which has not been subject to verification or significant scrutiny.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:49 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:09 — The Russian Economy At A Glance 00:09:20 — Investment And Military Production 00:11:24 — Three Drivers 00:14:41 — Rostec And The Russian DIB 00:23:05 — Wartime Expenses 00:28:48 — Hydrocarbons 00:35:12 — Sanctions Pain 00:47:14 — An Economy Overheating 00:58:32 — What Does This Mean? 01:00:27 — The Danger Of Peacetime 01:04:12 — Channel UpdateRussia and Ukraine on the Offensive - Kursk, the Donbass & Escalating Long-Range StrikesPerun2024-09-01 | At times, the war in Ukraine has had a relatively clear division between the power currently on the offensive, and the opposing force standing on the defensive.
For most of the war Russia has held the initiative, and in 2024 that clearly remains the case along much of the front. But as Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region continues, it's become clear that the Russia may not hold a monopoly on battlefield initiative, and there are questions as to what the duelling offensives, Ukraine in Kursk and Russia elsewhere, are ultimately achieving for both sides.
In this episode, we zoom in on the developments in Kursk and Pokrovsk, look at the escalation of the long-range strike efforts, including the reported development of new systems like Ukrainian jet powered attack drones, and ask how, and if, these current efforts might be shaping the conflict at a strategic level.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading: To be completed by 04/09 due to late release
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:36 — Catching Up 00:02:54 — Kursk Now 00:07:17 — Korenevo 00:09:15 — Glushkovo 00:14:42 — Other Ukrainian Operations 00:17:06 — Russia's Offensive 00:20:48 — Pokrovsk 00:25:25 — Evaluating The Balance 00:32:41 — Long Range Strike Campaign - Ukraine 00:33:30 — Impact 00:44:24 — Enter The Bread Missile 00:52:56 — Risks And The Way Forward 00:56:23 — Making An Impression 00:59:01 — Conclusions 01:00:35 — Channel UpdateMilitary Decoys in Ukraine - Fake equipment, inflatables & lessons in deception for foreign forcesPerun2024-08-25 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words 01:19 — What Am I Talking About? 03:39 — Historic Deception 08:47 — Decoys 101 16:04 — Decoys In Ukraine 18:57 — Mitigating Responsive Fires 30:39 — Tactical Targets? 38:01 — Russian Decoy Efforts 45:26 — Foreign Militaries 57:38 — Conclusions 58:28 — Channel UpdateUkraines Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraines push into RussiaPerun2024-08-18 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.
On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.
Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.
At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (in process of revision - to be revised 04/09):
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:45 — The War In August 2024 00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning? 00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia 00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine 00:17:17 — Defence Lines 00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent 00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations 00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions 00:44:30 — The Russian Response 00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic? 00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives 01:00:12 — What Comes Next? 01:03:29 — Conclusions 01:04:42 — Channel UpdateAir Defence In Ukraine (2024): Creativity, Anti-air drones, Shortages & LessonsPerun2024-08-11 | One of the constant features of the war in Ukraine to date has been a general environment of mutual air-denial. The VKS has been able to launch stand-off attacks using missiles, drones, and glide bombs (while Ukraine relies to a greater extent on drones and Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCMS) but neither side has been able to develop or sustain air superiority over the other's territory.
But while that state has persisted for nearly two and half years at this point, that doesn't mean the situation is static. Ukraine's long range strike capabilities have improved, even as constant Russian attacks have driven major shortages in air defence missiles and systems in Ukraine. Partly in response to those supply challenges, we've seen various acts of creativity and innovation, from the use of FPVs as anti-air systems to the focus on a counter-air campaign.
In this episode, we look at the recent Air Defence efforts in Ukraine, ask how Russia and Ukraine have approached the air defence problem, and what those observations might offer in terms of lines of inquiry for other nations.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:14 — Air Defences & The War Of Attrition 00:03:51 — Losses & Replacements 00:10:28 — Assessing Strain 00:12:53 — Ukrainian Usage 00:28:54 — Russia 00:50:54 — Converting Intelligence To Kills 00:59:17 — Conclusions 01:00:56 — Channel UpdateThe Race for Next Generation Submarines - Ageing Fleets, Innovation, & Undersea DominancePerun2024-08-04 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun
Nuclear powered submarines are often among the most complex and expensive systems ever fielded by any military. However, for decades, they (and less expensive conventionally powered designs) have been considered a cornerstone of naval power by many navies because of the unique capabilities they offer.
With new anti-submarine threats emerging, from new sensors to unmanned systems, many nations are now preparing to design and produce a new generation of submarines to answer those threats, leverage new technologies, and keep up with international competitors.
Today, we take a look at that emerging development and construction race.
RIA Novosti on Husky and Kalina https://vpk.name/en/543537_the-central-design-bureau-rubin-presented-to-the-ministry-of-defense-several-projects-of-submarines-of-the-fifth-generation.html
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:05 — The Push For A New Generation 00:07:43 — Next Generation Technologies 00:18:34 — The US Submarine Fleet 00:35:22 — The Russian Federation 00:55:14 — Japan 01:03:53 — Risk & Drawbacks 01:06:01 — Channel UpdateUkrainian Equipment Losses and Resupply (2024): Allied support, captured equipment & endurancePerun2024-07-28 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
Two weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (youtu.be/xF-S4ktINDU)
However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.
So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force
One chart shows the Strv 122 appearing twice - this is an error however the data shown is correct in both cases.
I will also note the M113 supply list includes both Benelux and Netherlands lines. These relate to separate efforts for different vehicles in the M113 family. With the Dutch line relating to the YPR-765
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading:
This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up front
The primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases - this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges.
Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:
Denmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weeks https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-netherlands-say-14-leopard-tanks-will-be-dispatched-to-ukraine-within-weeks/
Spain to deliver HAWK https://mil.in.ua/en/news/spain-to-reinforce-ukraine-s-air-defense-with-hawk-air-defense-systems-in-september/
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia 00:06:47 — The Quality Question 00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured 00:19:38 — Losses 00:26:04 — Inputs 00:30:53 — MBTs 00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS 00:45:04 — Aircraft 00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition 01:01:07 — Channel UpdateNorth Korean Military Capabilities & Strategy - Nukes, Numbers & (bad) EconomicsPerun2024-07-21 | The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA North Korea) is perhaps the strangest military power we've ever had a detailed look at on this channel from a defence economic perspective.
It's a nation of extremes - building nuclear weapons and ICBMs while requiring food aid, and fielding one of the world's largest active duty militaries with a population not that different from the likes of Australia.
With the recent signing of a partnership agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow, I thought it was finally time for a more detailed look at the DPRK and the Korean People's army.
Be aware, this is going to be a slightly weird one.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:43 — The Great Unknowns 00:02:35 — History 00:07:21 — Lesson - The Songun Paradox 00:16:48 — Defining Objectives 00:27:55 — The KPA 00:47:48 — The Air Force 00:53:32 — Naval Component 00:57:31 — Nuclear Program 01:06:07 — The Russia Connection 01:09:25 — Channel UpdateRussian Equipment Losses & Reserves (2024) - The Changing Russian Force in UkrainePerun2024-07-14 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun
Please note one audio correction in the pinned comment regarding BMP-3 losses.
The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands.
In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode.
AS-22 (@AS22_im) for GBAD counts https://x.com/AS_22im/status/1811989654746595437
As well as others that I have mentioned in the past or in this video
Plus, of course I need to flag the value of the work of the VC loss database teams behind Oryx, Warspotting and Lostarmor (which I have referenced in several videos as a check against other data sets
Other relevant sources:
Baseline pre-war equipment figures per Military balance for commonality with other episodes
M-46 image included https://x.com/war_noir/status/1805597359067328659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1805597359067328659%7Ctwgr%5E88434fae75d37e99046b8ec8ecb8e3fd4bf83d11%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.defence-ua.com%2Fanalysis%2Fthe_russian_military_use_rare_korean_130_mm_projectiles_for_the_stalin_era_m_46_gun-10999.html
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:35 — Losses 00:13:49 — Does Quality Matter? 00:17:59 — Storage 00:37:45 — Production 00:42:30 — Production & Reactivations 00:53:46 — Trend And The Evolving Force 00:57:30 — The Path Forward 01:03:07 — Channel UpdateRussian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine - The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putins Ceasefire demandPerun2024-07-07 | Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine's allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own.
It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine's allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.
Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question....will they improve Russia's position or leave it at greater risk than before.
Estonian MoD: Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Reporting on the 'buffer zone' motive for the Kharkiv offensive https://www.politico.eu/article/kharkiv-capture-ukraine-war-russian-invasion-vladimir-putin-buffer-zone-belgorod/#:~:text=And%20I%20have%20said%20publicly,be%20no%20comfort%20to%20Ukrainians.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:43 — The Russian Effort 00:04:38 — Battlefield Dynamics 00:11:32 — Losses & Costs 00:20:10 — Kharkiv And Escalation 00:26:28 — The Korean Connection 00:39:26 — The Long Range Campaign 00:47:59 — Putin's "Peace" 01:00:58 — What Next? 01:02:56 — Channel UpdateFully Autonomous Weapon Systems - The technology, capability and controversy of robots at warPerun2024-06-30 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
For all the changes we've seen in weapon systems, the role of humans as the key decision makers when it comes to the use of force has remained.
But what happens when machines develop to the point where they are increasingly able to perceive the battlefield and make that decision for themselves.
As the AI rush plays out, compute becomes cheaper and battlefield pressures play out, nations may face increasing pressure to unleash autonomous systems from their human handlers. So in this episode we discuss the potential of these systems, some of the advantages and pressures that might drive their development...and what the prospect for international regulation might be before the killer robots start to take the field in significant numbers.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (limited as I was ill – may update in coming week)
Submission by the Russian Federation – Approaches of the Russian Federation to the issue of emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systems
DoD FY 2024 Budget Estimates – Air Force – RDT&E https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/documents/FY24/Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation/FY24%20Air%20Force%20Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20II.pdf?ver=pYOQLrjX71gVe8w6FCJOwg%3D%3D#page=500
Javglevskaja & Liivoja - Balancing the lopsided debate on autonomous weapon systems https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/balancing-the-lopsided-debate-on-autonomous-weapon-systems/
Timestamps: 00:00 — Opening Words 00:47 — What Am I Talking About? 03:19 — The Emergence Of Autonomy 07:15 — Human Out Of The Loop Operation 13:33 — Tactical Advantages And Application 22:25 — Pressures For Deployment 32:04 — A Path Towards Regulation? 45:36 — Channel UpdateThe New Space Race, SpaceX & Starship - Satellite constellations & Launcher EvolutionPerun2024-06-09 | For both military and civilian applications, launching satellites into orbit has long been both useful and incredibly expensive. But over the last decade, the costs to put payload into orbit have shrunk dramatically, driven by launchers like the SpaceX Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy while the number of satellites in orbit has exploded.
And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon.
In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised.
In particular – I note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
For notes on costs and launch estimates - see notes further below. Also see notes in description regarding nomenclature.
VICTUS NOX https://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsroom/Article-Display/Article/3679056/us-space-force-successfully-concludes-victus-nox-tactically-responsive-space-mi
Q1 upmass by launch provider image from - https://x.com/BryceSpaceTech?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Note on launch mass and cost per payload estimates.
Calculating the 'cost/price per KG' of a system can be difficult. Different launches involve different margins and additional (e.g. safety or national security) demand driven costs.
The manner in which project and related costs are rolled into launch costs or prices is also inconsistent across sources.
For this video, values should be treated as indicative and are generally based on a compilation of publicly available prices and launch data compiled by Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) - out of necessity, some assumptions have been required (e.g. including estimating payload mass).
Unless otherwise noted, costs are based on prices for commercial launches.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:21 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — Space Driven Advantage 00:07:10 — The Constellation Revolution 00:14:53 — The Constellation Escalation 00:19:01 — Capacity As The Commodity 00:23:29 — National Launch Programs: Russia 00:32:44 — Let's Talk USA 00:35:19 — SpaceX Path To Dominance 00:49:05 — Starship And Its Implications 00:55:57 — Other Players? 00:59:51 — The Way ForwardThe Race for Next Generation Bombers - Stealth, Drones & the B-21, H-20 & PAK DA programsPerun2024-06-02 | While the push for next generation fighters probably wins more public and internet attention, the drive to field new bomber aircraft with sixth generation features is also pushing the limits of what aircraft designers can accomplish.
And with the first flights of the B-21 Raider now documented, it may also be a race far closer to the finish line.
In this episode I look at the three main members of the strategic bomber club, their next generation bomber programs, and ask both what these systems might mean, and why they seem likely to serve alongside much older, legacy platforms.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:54 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:32 — History 00:11:12 — Modern And Future Roles 00:16:53 — The Three Bomber Fleets 00:23:09 — Next Generation Features 00:28:03 — The United States 00:36:03 — China 00:38:58 — Russia 00:46:34 — Bomb Trucks And Force Design 00:50:54 — The US Future Fleet 00:54:53 — The Chinese Future Fleet 00:55:57 — The Russian Future Fleet 01:01:02 — Potential For Future Growth? 01:02:46 — Channel UpdateRussias Kharkiv Offensive and Leadership Purge - Shoigus removal, Kharkiv & What next for Ukraine?Perun2024-05-26 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
The last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city.
In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Reading and Sources:
Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/
Thanks and credit to @naalsio26 for his geolocation and tabulation of VC losses by region and to warmapper.org for their fortification mapping work
**due to late upload this list will be extended on 27/05**
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:59 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:56 — The Russian Political Context 00:14:01 — The Military Context 00:17:17 — A Quiet Front 00:19:34 — Buildup And Operations 00:32:21 — The Operation Unfolds 00:37:07 — Purpose And Value 00:44:19 — Observations - Russia 00:54:10 — Observations & Recriminations - Ukraine 01:00:56 — What Next? 01:03:04 — Channel UpdateThe Future of the Submarine - Emerging Threats, Sensors & Transparent OceansPerun2024-05-19 | In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we've seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability.
But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true.
So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.
Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams - Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperable https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/transparent_oceans_report_anu_nsc_2020_0.pdf
Bradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the above https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/advances-in-detection-technology-could-render-aukus-submarines-useless-by-2050/
Brixey-Williams - Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/prospects-for-game-changers-in-submarine-detection-technology/
The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/16145/future-undersea-deterrent-global-survey
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:34 — What Am I Not Talking About 00:01:50 — History 00:11:49 — What Makes A Submarine? 00:24:08 — Emutopia & Kiwiland 00:28:12 — The Economics 00:34:42 — Vulnerabilities 00:50:03 — Countermeasures And Challenges 00:52:40 — The Submarine Fights Back 00:53:34 — If Not The Submarine 01:00:01 — What Next? 01:01:51 — Channel UpdateTurtle Tanks, Cope Cages & Modified Vehicles in Ukraine - Purpose, Evolution & EffectivenessPerun2024-05-12 | When you fight a war against a backdrop of shortages, emerging threats and Slavic ingenuity, perhaps it's not surprising that you end up with a bunch of systems being used that aren't exactly factory standard.
One of the first images of the Russian invasion were tanks equipped with add-on overhead cages, but in 2024 the most extreme examples of anti-drone protection now include vehicles with entire structures built over them to provide near all round protection.
In this episode, I look at vehicle modification in Ukraine, examine some of the main classes of modification and ad-hoc vehicles we've seen and ask why they exist, and what sort of military value they might have.
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:50 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:25 — Modifications & Motives 00:16:48 — Protection 00:19:21 — Spaced Armour & Cope Cages 00:33:06 — Other Adopters? 00:40:51 — Extreme Evolutions 00:48:14 — Protection - Reactive Armour 00:54:46 — Protection - Improvised 01:01:45 — Channel UpdateThe Race to Claim the Arctic - Claims, Icebreakers & Competition in the Far NorthPerun2024-05-05 | The Arctic is pretty unique. It's a place where allies like the US and Canada feud, Russia is still arguably the dominant power and the United States can casually announce a claim to an area more than twice the size of California.
But with access to Arctic resources as a draw - this unique setting is likely to see far more competition in the coming years. So let's chill a bit, and talk Arctic competition.
Note a correction - In this presentation I refer to Norway handing over presidency of the Arctic Council to Russia in 2021. Norway currently holds the presidency, Russia received it from Iceland in 2021.
USGC Arctic Strategic Outlook and Strategic Outlook Implementation Plans https://www.uscg.mil/Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategy_Book_APR_2019.pdf
CRS - Strategic Competition in the Arctic (statement before the House Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security) crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/TE/TE10084/2
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
This video is not an authoritative description of international law, please consider seeking legal advice if it is relevant to you or decisions you make.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:09 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:08 — Welcome To The Arctic 00:04:34 — How Do You Claim The Arctic? 00:12:01 — Why Do You Claim The Arctic? 00:17:26 — The Arctic States & Organisations 00:22:25 — Claims And Disputes 00:26:44 — Arctic Operations & Security 00:32:32 — The Players & Assets 00:46:09 — Russia, Breakers & Missed Chances 01:01:41 — Channel UpdateNew American Military Aid for Ukraine - Whats in the package and what impact will it have?Perun2024-04-28 | In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition.
In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places.
Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022.
Estonian MoD: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay 00:08:28 — What's In The Package 00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa 00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do 00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example 00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death 00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability 00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic 01:03:21 — Channel Update00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay 00:08:28 — What's In The Package 00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa 00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do 00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example 00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death 00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability 00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic 01:03:21 — Channel UpdateIrans Missile Strike on Israel - The attack, defence & Israels counter-strikePerun2024-04-21 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.
This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.
What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.
In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:12 — Caveats 00:03:50 — The Syria Strike 00:05:56 — The Attacks 00:21:19 — Purpose & Result 00:29:36 — Estimates & Costing 00:34:32 — Winners and Losers? 00:38:54 — Retaliation Options 00:50:55 — The Conflict Continuum 01:00:00 — What Now? 01:00:41 — Channel UpdateRebuilding US Arms Production - Can a new Strategy Restore the Arsenal of Democracy?Perun2024-04-14 | During many major conflicts of the 20th century, the ability of the USA to pump out enormous amounts of defence materiel was a critical factor. In the lead up to WW2 the US would declare itself the 'arsenal of democracy'
But with the end of the Cold War came reductions and consolidation - and after the events of early 2022 the US, like many other nations, found itself eager to re-expand its defence industries to meet the demands of the war in Ukraine and changing global security environment.
That provided the context for the release of a defence industry strategy this year -- and today, we're going to talk about it.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
This is obviously very much not financial advice.
Many images on slides are included only for illustrative, comedic or aesthetic purposes and should not be assumed to be related to the corresponding text or audio.
FRCSW Apprenticeship program https://frcsw.navair.navy.mil/Public-Affairs-Office/News/Article/2613532/frcsw-apprenticeship-program-offers-artisan-career-path/
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:21 — The Peace Dividend 00:06:58 — Towards Strategy 00:10:12 — Resilient Supply Chains 00:26:17 — Workforce Readiness 00:36:25 — Flexible Acquisition 00:46:09 — Signs Of Progress 00:51:05 — Geopolitical Significance 01:03:19 — Channel UpdateDrone Technology in Ukraine - Automation, Lethality & The (Scary) Development RacePerun2024-04-07 | Drones have been a major feature of the fighting in Ukraine since well before the 2022 invasion - but they have been set apart from other major systems by just how quickly the technology and tactics behind them have evolved.
In this episode, I look at why drones in Ukraine are becoming more dangerous, at the same time as they are becoming much, much more common.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
I also note that while I describe 10km as a long range for an FPV strike - this is from the point of view of the war as a whole. And FPV strikes significantly beyond the 10km mark have been reported and claimed.
Readings and Sources (temporarily shortened list as I am in transit):
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:40 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:11 — Caveats And Content 00:01:55 — The New Drone Ecosystem 00:05:00 — The Drones Get Better 00:06:26 — Sensors And Night Ops 00:10:43 — Range And The Value Of Reach 00:19:20 — Targeting & AI 00:27:38 — Lethality 00:39:44 — Countermeasures 00:48:43 — Production 00:57:47 — Implications And Projections 01:10:58 — Channel UpdateGlobal Arms Exports - Winners, losers & trends in the race to rearmPerun2024-03-31 | Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share.
Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.
Caveats, Comments and Corrections: At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending - they are in fact from an IISS publication
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply.
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports: youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI
Timestamps 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About 00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard 00:06:57 — The Market Shifts 00:07:58 — The USA 00:13:42 — Europe 00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers 00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers? 00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory 01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes 01:04:56 — Channel UpdateDefence Strategy: The Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & NATOs Eastern FlankPerun2024-03-24 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
Designing a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank.
Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation..
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
At one point I quote a source saying Estonia has 56 howitzers, the correct total of 18 and 36 is 54
Readings and Sources (incomplete, to be filled out):
Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel figures are usually as per Military Balance 2024
Estonian Ministry of Defence - Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:22 — History 00:13:57 — Strategic Position 00:20:06 — Perceived Threats & Objectives 00:34:10 — Armed Forces & Approach 00:43:14 — Collective Defence 00:54:33 — Finland & Closing The Door On The Baltic Option 00:58:25 — The Baltic States And Ukraine 01:04:19 — Channel UpdateUS Navy Procurement Disasters - The Littoral Combat Ship and Zumwalt Class DestroyerPerun2024-03-10 | For decades, the US Navy has been the world's most powerful ocean going force. It operates some of the most successful warship designs in recent history.
It also operates some with more...complex...stories.
In this episode we look at US efforts to develop a new generation of surface warships, including the LCS and Zumwalt Destroyers, and ask both what went wrong with these incredibly expensive projects and what we might be able to learn from them.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
In keeping with the above, nothing in this presentation should be taken to be an allegation of wrongdoing or any particular act or inaction by any individual or entity.
Sources have not been validated.
Readings and Sources: US DOD - Selected Acquisition Report on LCS Mission Modules https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_MM_SAR_2021.pdfv
US DOD - Selected Acquisition Report - Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_SAR_2021.pdf
LCS Mission Modules Program - CAPT Gus Weekes Program https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Portals/103/Documents/Exhibits/SAS2021/SAS2021-LittoralCombatShipMissionModules.pdf
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening 00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:58 — Evolution of The US Navy 00:07:15 — LCS - The Beginning 00:15:29 — LCS - The Issues 00:23:10 — LCS - Lessons 00:34:59 — LCS - The Redemption 00:39:28 — DD(X) - The Beginning 00:46:02 — DD(X) - Lessons 00:50:55 — DD(X) - Redemption 00:56:15 — Reflection 01:05:47 — UpdateThe Ukraine War in 2024 - The Military and Economic Balance of the Long WarPerun2024-03-03 | It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it.
But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.
By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.
Estonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat: https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Dr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles – The Russian Way of War https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:48 — The Phases Of War 00:05:24 — Battlefield Trends And Adaptations 00:10:15 — Objectives And "Winning" 00:16:27 — Economics 00:25:18 — Production 00:40:52 — Losses And Pipelines 00:53:06 — Force Quality And Issues 01:00:08 — Reflecting & Projecting 01:02:48 — Channel UpdateThe Ukraine Air-War in 2024 - Interviewing Professor Justin BronkPerun2024-02-25 | While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment.
Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.
And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below.
Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own – and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:58 — What Are We Talking About? 00:01:43 — Prof. Justin Bronk 00:02:08 — The Evolving Air War 00:05:14 — The GBAD Transition 00:08:18 — KIT Systems 00:12:38 — Patriot Ambush Tactics 00:18:12 — Friendly Fire And The A-50 00:25:15 — A-10 00:29:39 — Sustainability 00:59:48 — Closing Thoughts & The US Role 01:01:28 — An Open Mic On Risks And Issues 01:07:50 — Creativity & Material Limits 01:09:42 — Channel UpdateLaser and Microwave Weapons - Directed-Energy Weapon Programs, Potential, and IssuesPerun2024-02-19 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
While technology has continued to evolve, most weapon systems modern militaries use operate on old principles. A artillery piece is a world removed from a Napoleonic cannon, but the idea of detonating a charge behind a projectile in a tube in order to propel it in the direction of something you don't like - that remains the same.
For decades, Governments have also been investing in trying to develop systems that operate in very different ways - including directed energy weapons like lasers and High Powered Microwave weapons (HPM). And for decades - very little emerged in terms of deployable, destructive systems.
But on a battlefield increasingly dominated by cheap and precise threats such as loitering munitions, FPV drones or naval kamikaze drones, there is more pressure than ever for forces to leverage recent technological developments to turn concepts into functional, deployable tools for their armed forces.
In this episode, we look at the concepts behind Directed Energy Weapons, ask what advantages and disadvantages they might have compared to more conventional equivalents, and what how militaries might use them going forward.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I have also not sought to provide a fulsome explanation of the science behind the operation of HEL and HPM systems. For those interested, I would strongly recommend further reading and I will include some potential sources in the source list below.
Relevant Reading (to added 20/02/2024 once I have access to my research notes and materials again)
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro 00:01:10 — What Am I Talking About? 00:12:27 — The Directed Energy Promise 00:17:42 — Ground Applications 00:25:48 — Naval Applications 00:40:51 — Aerospace Applications 00:47:00 — Countermeasures and limitations 01:02:10 — Development challenges and risks 01:06:43 — Channel UpdateChinese Military Capabilities - Strategy, Technology & The Changing PLAPerun2024-02-11 | The modernisation of the Chinese PLA has represented a dramatic shift in the balance of military power in Asia.
Over the course of several decades, the PLA has shifted from a primarily ground combat force with a large stock of outdated equipment, to one that is increasingly capable of projecting power and holding targets at risk over longer and longer distances.
Having discussed the PRC's military budget, industry, rocket force and other critical drivers, today I finally want to give an overview of the PLA's changing capabilities and ask the question - what kind of force has China's modernisation process created, and how may it continue to evolve going forward?
The PLA Strategic Support Force: Future-proofing China's Military - Cosmo Cao https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-pla-strategic-support-force-future-proofing-chinas-military/
China's Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era - Costello & McReynolds, National Defence University https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/china-perspectives_13.pdf
The Creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force and its Implications for Chinese Military Space Operations - Pollpeter, Chase & Heginbotham (2017) rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2058.html
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:00 — Strategy And Strategic Environment 00:13:11 — The Forces 00:13:35 — The Strategic Support Force 00:17:59 — The Space Systems Department 00:18:49 — Network Systems Department 00:21:10 — PLA Ground Forces 00:27:51 — PLAAF (Air Force) 00:36:15 — PLAN (Navy) 00:49:22 — The Rocket Force 00:53:09 — Shortfalls, Trends & Perspectives 01:05:48 — Channel UpdateThe Race for Next Generation Air-to-Air Missiles: Range, Sensors & Future Air DominancePerun2024-02-04 | When we talk about the future of competition for air-superiority, often we focus on the most high-profile platform - the current and future generation fighter aircraft. With cutting edge sensors and systems, new generation fighters are likely to give their pilots access to a level of information and performance beyond what even current fifth generation platforms can offer.
But situational awareness doesn't have the same value if it can't be connected to a weapon system capable enough to leverage it - which the air-to-air missile comes in.
In the past decade, multiple nations have fielded new missiles that challenge or eclipse existing US missiles like the AIM-120. In this episode we're going to look at some of those systems, ask how the US fell behind in the range game, and ask what the plan might be to equip the USAF with tools to reclaim its previous advantage in the air.
Note, this video is a continuation of the series on next-generation air combat, including:
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:56 — History & The Missile Evolution 00:06:38 — The Future Air War Concept 00:17:41 — What Makes A Good Missile? 00:26:42 — The US Inventory 00:30:10 — Russia 00:36:03 — PRC 00:44:58 — European Competitors 00:51:05 — And Before We Get To The USA 00:52:28 — The New Programs 01:00:59 — Bringing This Together 01:04:21 — Channel UpdateRussias Winter Offensive & The War in Ukraine - The Initiative, losses, & air, sea & land campaignsPerun2024-01-28 | Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. .
Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front.
In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:47 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:20 — The Winter Offensives 00:10:10 — Equipment Losses 00:20:27 — Adaptations And Observations 00:27:17 — The Black Sea Theatre 00:33:25 — The Air War 00:50:18 — Manpower And Mobilisation 01:01:39 — Notes On Resupply 01:06:37 — Conclusion 01:07:08 — Channel UpdateChinese Military Corruption & Readiness - The Rocket Force, Purges & PLA ReadinessPerun2024-01-21 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
Earlier this month, Bloomberg carried an article which included claims about corruption in the PRC's Rocket Force .
Those claims have gotten plenty of attention – so today, I want to look into corruption and anti-corruption campaigns in the PRC, some of the claims from the article, how we might interpret them, and what all this might mean for the PLA and the region
Yang, Milanovic, Yaoqi Lin – Anti-corruption campaign in China: An empirical investigation https://wid.world/document/anti-corruption-campaign-in-china-an-empirical-investigation-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2023-05/
China’s national defence in the New Era https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
All contentions of fact presented in this presentation should be assumed to be subject to be qualified by the words "reportedly" "allegedly" or both depending on context. In some cases, these words have been omitted from the audio for reasons including a need to keep the presentation understandable and suitable for its primary purpose - entertainment.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:46 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:10 — PRC Military Modernisation 00:04:01 — Corruption And Purges 00:20:15 — The Bloomberg Claims 00:30:54 — The Silo Thing - And Implications 00:44:42 — Solid Fuel Issues? 00:48:25 — Readiness 00:56:21 — Regional Developments And Strategy 00:59:38 — Conclusion 01:01:12 — Channel UpdateHow Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and ManpowerPerun2024-01-14 | Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.
As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.
So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:33 — History 00:07:57 — The Funnel 00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge 00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions 00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge 00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions 00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem 00:25:22 — Driving Propensity 00:27:33 — Retention 00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP" 00:37:35 — Looking Abroad 00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation 00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study 01:04:46 — Conclusion 01:05:29 — Channel UpdateAsk Perun Q&A Special - Nukes, Ukraine, Defence Economics & the ChannelPerun2024-01-07 | For nearly two years now, I've been using this channel to explore questions relating to wars, defence strategy and economics. I've been able to do so because of the unwavering support from all of you.
So today, as a way to welcome 2024, I'm answer your questions for a change: What are the modern roles for tactical nuclear weapons? How have Special Operations Forces been used in Ukraine? Would I rather fight a cruiser sized duck or a thousand duck sized cruisers? What can I tell you about the Perun audience? And how did this "Perun" bloke end up talking about Defence Economics anyway?
Hope you enjoy this special episode, and we'll be back to regular content next week.
Michael Frankel, James Scouras & George Ullrich - Nonstrategic nuclear weapons at an inflection point: https://www.jhuapl.edu/sites/default/files/2022-12/NonstrategicNuclearWeapons.pdf
Comments & Caveats: This may be a Q&A format, but all normal caveats and limitations apply
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Q&A SPECIAL 00:01:12 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT? 00:01:52 — UKRAINE & DRONE WARFARE 00:01:55 — The Role of SOF & Intel 00:04:49 — Drones & Robotics 00:09:09 — The State of the Ruble 00:10:57 — Surprises & Revelations 00:13:30 — "Emptied the Armouries" 00:15:17 — The World and Ukraine 00:16:52 — Weapons and Tools 00:20:47 — The $75B Question 00:24:47 — SYSTEMS AND ECONOMICS 00:24:58 — Tactical Nuclear Weapons 00:25:56 — Different Targets, Different Requirements 00:28:29 — Precision Wins 00:30:37 — Evolving Defence Thinking 00:35:42 — Least Credible Sources 00:39:37 — Public Education 00:41:26 — The One Thing? 00:42:28 — THE LUCKY DIP 00:42:38 — A Topic Outside Defence Eco? 00:43:49 — Moskvas and Ducks 00:45:31 — THE CHANNEL & PROCESS 00:45:39 — The Origin Story 00:47:53 — The Process 00:49:31 — The Team 00:51:05 — The Role of OSINT 00:52:28 — The Impact and Risks 00:53:37 — You – The Audience 00:55:25 — What Next? 00:56:59 — Perun Lore 00:57:44 — ABOUT PERUN 00:57:53 — THE 1990s 01:00:23 — Education and Background 01:03:20 — The Impact of the Channel 01:05:01 — The Field 01:06:10 — EE = Perun? 01:06:23 — Food 01:07:06 — GAMING 01:07:16 — Tabletop Games 01:08:10 — EVE Online 01:08:21 — What Next for Perun Gaming? 01:08:46 — CHANNEL UPDATERed Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks, Trade and EscalationPerun2024-01-01 | The global economic system is built on trade, and to trade, you need ships and safe, efficient routes. Often, that mean travelling through maritime choke points, where geography squeezes trade through a concentrated point.
In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa.
Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship.
And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world?
There are two flubs in the Audio that need to be mentioned on this one:
Firstly - marine traffic .com, not marine tracker (flubbed because I use it as a tracker I think)
Secondly - prosperity guardian not, as I say *twice*, prosperity garden
Thirdly - there are a few times where i refer to a 'trip' intending to mean a 'round trip' but this is not uniform. I apologise for the ambiguity
all other normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (will be expanded when I'm at my other PC):
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Red Sea Crisis 00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:05 — Setting The Stage 00:11:49 — Motivation And Strikes 00:14:04 — Engagements And Targets 00:20:40 — Diversions And The Economics Of Disruptions 00:28:35 — Forces And Responses 00:40:36 — Options For Escalation 00:48:33 — The Chokepoint Problem 00:58:57 — Why This Matters 01:06:32 — Conclusion 01:06:56 — Channel UpdateIndian Defence Strategy - Forces, Potential and Procurement DisastersPerun2023-12-23 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
When debates arise on what the worlds strongest militaries are, attention tends to focus on the United States, PRC, and the Russian Federation. Less often mentioned is India...and I think that's a massive oversight.
With a rapidly growing economy, young demography, and a developing military industry, India's military evolution and strategy are likely to become ever more significant regional and global factors in the coming years.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
At one point I refer to the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2016 - as per the slide, it was actually the Defence Procurement Procedure at the time. My reading was focused on the 2020 document, not 2016 as mentioned.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (to be expanded) Platform counts are generally MB2022 figures for sake of consistency with other episodes
Featured Comptroller and Auditor General Report (35 or 2014) https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2014/Union_Compliance_Defence_Army_Ordnance_Factories_35_2014.pdf
Reporting on MiG-21 https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-do-mig-21-crash-indian-air-force-fighter-aircraft-rajasthan-incident-pilots-death-1981575-2022-07-29
For comparison: F-16 mishap and pilot loss statistics https://www.safety.af.mil/Portals/71/documents/Aviation/Aircraft%20Statistics/F-16.pdf
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Indian Defence Strategy 00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:14 — History 00:07:59 — Strategic Situation 00:21:22 — Indian Armed Forces 00:27:29 — The Nuclear Program 00:36:21 — Strengths & Challenges 00:46:37 — Defence Industry & Procurement 00:50:14 — Why Procurement Goes Wrong? 01:10:15 — Conclusion 01:11:03 — Channel UpdateNATO Training and Lessons from the War in Ukraine - Interview with General Ben Hodges (Ret.)Perun2023-12-17 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare coverage to spot sensational content and identify the facts with Ground News https://ground.news/perun
How do you train an army to fight a war that is different from any you've ever experienced?
Support for Ukraine has played a vital role in shaping the progress of the war in Ukraine to date. Ukrainian efforts have heavily leveraged munitions and systems supplied by their allies - but training has also been a key area for allied support
Unlike weapon systems however, evaluating the performance of NATO's training efforts are harder to determine. Reporting tends to focus on the quantity of troops going through these programs, but less reporting focuses on whether the training properly matches the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield
To get a better understanding of NATO's efforts to train with Ukraine in the years leading up to 2022 and since the full scale invasion, as well as some of the lessons members of the alliance might be learning from the war, today I'm welcoming back retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. LTG Hodges (Ret.) is a former commander of US Army Europe and engaged with Ukrainian forces extensively over his time in that role.
I'm very happy to welcome him back to the channel and want to stress that the opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the individuals expressing them.
“Inside the secret French camp where Ukrainians prepare for war” https://www.politico.eu/article/in-rural-france-ukrainians-build-real-trenches-in-mock-villages/
No financial consideration was paid in relation to this interview – though I did request that a charity be nominated for a donation after the interview was recorded
LTG Hodges did not exercise any editorial control over this episode as a whole, including my comments or the slides that have been included
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:35 — What Are We Talking About? 00:03:37 — Lessons From The Battlefield 00:03:56 — Q: Ensuring Training Delivers Value 00:07:44 — Q: Training For The Environment 00:12:56 — Q: Keeping Up With Adaptation 00:15:56 — Q: Observers And Lessons Learned 00:19:41 — Q: Lessons So Far? 00:22:28 — Q: Wargaming and Assumptions 00:25:32 — Q: Training Pre-2022 00:28:08 — Q: Evolution Of The Training Mission 00:34:30 — Q: Training Efforts Post 02/2022 00:37:22 — Q: Higher Level Training Requirements 00:40:47 — Q: Force Regeneration 00:43:24 — Cohesion And Training As A Unit 00:44:36 — Answer Pt.2: Force Regeneration 00:46:09 — Training Program Abbreviation 00:47:35 — Evaluating 2023 00:48:21 — Q: Outcome Vs Commitment 00:52:12 — Priorities, Resources & THAAD 00:54:01 — Q: The Path To 2025 01:02:20 — Conclusion 01:03:50 — Channel UpdateVenezuela, Guyana & The Essequibo Crisis - Posturing or a new Special Military Operation?Perun2023-12-10 | Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn't make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story - With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.
Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela.
Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.
One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana 00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:34 — Venezuela 00:07:36 — Guyana 00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation 00:24:55 — Venezuela's Military 00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption 00:41:29 — Guyana's Military 00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation? 00:51:21 — Regional Actors 00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice? 01:04:37 — Conclusion 01:05:36 — Channel UpdateExhaustion, Politics & The War in Ukraine - Public Support, Allied Endurance & the War in 2024Perun2023-12-03 | It's increasingly understood that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a long and hard one - and in that kind of attrition based struggle, resources and political will can matter as much as battlefield victories or defeats.
Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war - and what it may mean for the war in 2024.
Corrections & Caveats: All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — War Exhaustion 00:13:51 — Impacts And Drivers 00:16:14 — Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine 00:20:07 — Ukraine 00:30:53 — Russia 00:41:23 — The United States 00:53:31 — The European Union 00:58:57 — The UK 01:02:01 — What Does This Mean? 01:03:27 — Conclusion 01:04:47 — Channel UpdateRussias New Offensive & Ukraines River Crossing: Avdiivka to Kherson - Costs & ConsequencesPerun2023-11-26 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/Perun
As we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka - burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence.
At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.
In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.
Relevant Reading: The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.
As noted in the video - credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)
10-15,000 FPV figure being reported https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-manufacturers-supply-up-to-15-000-fpv-drones-per-month-to-the-defense-forces/
Corrections & Caveats: All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.
To those I'll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine - it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.
00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives 00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia 00:09:46 — Kherson 00:19:13 — Avdiivka 00:33:16 — Assessing Losses 00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations 00:59:31 — Observations 01:04:51 — Conclusion 01:05:38 — Channel UpdateNuclear Modernisation - Rearmament, ageing stockpiles and why Russias nukes work (probably)Perun2023-11-19 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare coverage to spot sensational content and identify the facts with Ground News https://ground.news/perun. Save 40% off during their Black Friday sale. Offer ends Dec 2.
Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?
The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament.
But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels.
In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps 00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation 00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation 00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision 00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb 00:21:45 — United States 00:34:54 — Russia 00:54:27 — China 01:02:22 — France 01:07:08 — United Kingdom 01:10:55 — Conclusion 01:11:48 — Channel UpdateMore Game Changers (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to HypersonicsPerun2023-11-12 | A few weeks ago, I looked at some of the many systems that have been used in Ukraine that attracted their share of of media hype and asked whether they delivered on their hype.
Today, I round out that list with more hyped up systems that didn't make in into the first video, while also looking at some that I'd probably nominate as just as, or more significant, that the ones drawing heaps of media attention.
Expect a focus on the importance of context and opportunity costs as we look at Kizhal, SCALP, the TB-2 drone and Orlan drones, as well as Starlink and Russia's extensive park of EW assets.
Thank you all of you who voted for this topic - I hope you enjoy.
Relevant Reading/sourcing The Russian Way of War (Grau & Bartles) https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf
Reporting on Musk and Starlink over Crimea https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-09/elon-musk-refused-ukrainian-request-to-activate-starlink-network/102835524
Rosoboronexport on Strelets https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/military-communications-equipment-and-automated-control-systems/automated-control-systems/strelets/
Rosoboronexport on Orlan 30 https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/uavs/orlan-30/
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps 00:00:00 — More Game Changers 00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:43 — System Shaping Battlefields 00:09:56 — Kinzhal And Storm Shadow/SCALP 00:26:12 — TB-2 And Orlan 00:40:51 — Communication 00:48:53 — Electronic Warfare 01:05:30 — Conclusions 01:06:43 — Channel UpdateIrans Military Strategy & Power Projection - Drones, Proxies & Production under SanctionsPerun2023-11-05 | Compared to many of the other militaries we’ve looked at, Iran’s force structure and overarching strategy stands out.
From its arsenal of Shah era weapons to its new generation of missiles, in this episode we did a bit deeper into Iran’s military capabilities, limitations, and the industrial capabilities behind them.
Source on included F-4 image https://www.key.aero/article/how-does-iran-manage-keep-its-ageing-f-4-phantom-iis-flying
Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes only.
Timestamps 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:26 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — History 00:09:24 — Position And Strategy 00:16:25 — The Force 00:28:47 — The Proxies 00:38:22 — Economy And Defence Production 00:49:40 — Production And Sanctions Busting 00:57:37 — Missiles And Drones 01:10:34 — Conclusion 01:11:30 — Channel UpdateThe Future of the Aircraft Carrier - New Threats, Power Projection & Growing FleetsPerun2023-10-29 | Since the second world war, the aircraft carrier has been a dominant symbol of naval might.
Now however, the Aircraft carrier is facing a growing family of new and evolving threats, ranging from anti ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics, to more capable submarines and unmanned systems. Some argue that these threats mean the Carrier may be ready to go the way of the battleship, becoming obsolete.
On the other hand, those same nations perfecting anti-carrier weapons are also investing extensively in new carriers of their own, suggesting they retain value.
In this video I look at carrier evolution, fleets, roles, threats - and the potential future of these extremely expensive platforms.
Caveats, Comments and Corrections: All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
I would also like to note I occasionally use terms like Carrier Strike Group and Carrier Task Force interchangeably - while the former has far greater contemporary relevance. Force of habit from historical studies so apologise for any confusion caused
Readings and Sources: List is abridged as I'm feeling unwell:
John Lehmen - Aircraft Carriers—Missions, Sur aft Carriers—Missions, Survivability ability, Size, Cost, Numbers - Naval War College Review https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8219&context=nwc-review
Gerald Ford in Eastern Med https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3552801/uss-gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea/
CRS - Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier Program: Background and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service - China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
carrier theme park as mentioned https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attraction_Review-g311293-d1865169-Reviews-Tianjin_Binhai_Aircraft_Carrier_Theme_Park-Tianjin.html
Timestamps: 00:00:00 — The Future Of The Aircraft Carrier 00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:15 — History 00:08:17 — What Makes A Carrier? 00:13:55 — Global Carrier Forces 00:25:46 — Strategic Power Projection 00:29:44 — Economics 00:39:56 — Vulnerabilities 00:47:52 — Countermeasures & Challenges 00:55:58 — If Not The Carrier, What? 01:04:20 — What Next For The Carrier 01:06:20 — Conclusion 01:06:44 — Channel Update