Russian Equipment Losses & Reserves (2024) - The Changing Russian Force in Ukraine Perun 2024-07-14 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perunPlease note one audio correction in the pinned comment regarding BMP-3 losses. The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands. In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:Given the topic, I think it only right to first acknowledge some of those whose data and work have been used in this work and in the work of others:Covert Cabal (including his most recent feature on RU tank storage levels)youtube.com/watch?v=xWCEZUQtUwEHighMarsed (@HighMarsed) https://x.com/HighMarsedJompy (@Jonpy99) https://x.com/Jonpy99AS-22 (@AS22_im) for GBAD countshttps://x.com/AS_22im/status/1811989654746595437As well as others that I have mentioned in the past or in this videoPlus, of course I need to flag the value of the work of the VC loss database teams behind Oryx, Warspotting and Lostarmor (which I have referenced in several videos as a check against other data setsOther relevant sources:Baseline pre-war equipment figures per Military balance for commonality with other episodesIISS - Russian T-90m Productioniiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/06/russian-t-90m-production-less-than-meets-the-eye/#:~:text=These%20figures%20suggest%20an%20average,when%20it%20launched%20its%20assault.Dr. Jack Watling and Gary Somerville - A Methodology forDegrading the Arms of the Russian Federationstatic.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-arms-russia-rusi-op-june-2024.pdfDr Jack Watling - In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantagesrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantagesRussian media on threat posed by Finland in NATOtass.com/defense/1721741tass.com/politics/1786405Russian warning of 'proportional response' to NATO in Finlandtass.com/politics/1775459Referenced imagery/reporting on Russian presence on Finnish borderkyivindependent.com/russia-has-moved-almost-all-forces-from-finlands-vicinity-to-ukraine-media-reporthttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/80-of-the-russian-troops-from-the-border-with-finland-were-transferred-to-ukraine/#:~:text=by%3A%20Yle%20magazine-,80%25%20of%20the%20Russian%20troops%20from%20the%20border,Finland%20were%20transferred%20to%20Ukraine&text=Russia%20has%20deployed%20most%20of,with%20the%20Finnish%20newspaper%20Yle.Featured PZH-2000 image and reporting on hedgehog armourforbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/11/29/hedgehog-armor-saves-ukraines-german-built-super-howitzer-from-russian-kamikaze-droneT-80 Image compilationen.defence-ua.com/industries/tanks_overgrown_with_weeds_being_taken_from_storage_in_russia_how_long_it_takes_to_restore_them-3173.htmlReporting on usage of BTR-50forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/20/when-a-70-year-old-russian-btr-50-attacks-ukrainian-troops-its-bad-news-for-the-whole-russian-war-effortM-46 image includedhttps://x.com/war_noir/status/1805597359067328659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1805597359067328659%7Ctwgr%5E88434fae75d37e99046b8ec8ecb8e3fd4bf83d11%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.defence-ua.com%2Fanalysis%2Fthe_russian_military_use_rare_korean_130_mm_projectiles_for_the_stalin_era_m_46_gun-10999.htmlCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:35 — Losses 00:13:49 — Does Quality Matter? 00:17:59 — Storage 00:37:45 — Production 00:42:30 — Production & Reactivations 00:53:46 — Trend And The Evolving Force 00:57:30 — The Path Forward 01:03:07 — Channel Update
Exploding pagers, Hezbollah & Israel - The events, outcomes & value of supply chain security Perun 2024-10-20 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunBeginning on September 16th, thousands of small explosions occurred across Lebanon - not caused by airstrikes or artillery, but by the detonation of thousands of Hezbollah issued communication devices.In this episode, I discuss the detonations, explore how they may have occurred, and ask what lessons they might highlight regarding the importance of supply chain security.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:US Defence Logistics Agency Supply Chain Security Strategyhttps://www.dla.mil/Portals/104/Documents/Headquarters/StrategicPlan/SupplyChainSecurityStrategy.pdfCSIS - Escalating to War between Israel, Hezbollah, and Irancsis.org/analysis/escalating-war-between-israel-hezbollah-and-iranRUSI - Silicon Lifelinerusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine/interactive-summaryUnited Nations on Resolution 1701news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155221Nasrallah describing the scale of the pager and walkie-talkie operations impactsvoanews.com/a/israeli-military-reports-strikes-against-hezbollah-sites/7790298.htmlReferenced or Relevant Reporting on the Pager & Walkie Talkie operation, background & aftermathwashingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallahreuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/HEZBOLLAH-PAGERS/mopawkkwjpaatlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-whats-behind-the-hezbollah-beeper-and-walkie-talkie-explosionsrferl.org/a/budapest-lebanon-pagers-attack-hezbollah/33125029.htmltimesofisrael.com/how-hezbollah-was-fooled-into-purchasing-explosive-pagersdefensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2024/09/17/hezbollah-pagers-explode-across-lebanon-injuring-thousandstwz.com/news-features/hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-could-be-as-monumental-a-cyber-espionage-operation-as-stuxnethttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/pixels/article/2024/09/18/hezbollah-pager-blasts-most-likely-caused-by-inserted-explosive_6726497_13.htmlbbc.com/news/articles/c93yg2w53dzotheguardian.com/world/2024/sep/19/israeli-front-controlled-manufacturing-process-likeliest-explanation-for-attacks-on-hezbollahbbc.com/news/articles/c9qvl3vlvlvowashingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestineHezbollah vowing to 'continue fight'aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/10/8/hezbollah-vows-to-continue-fight-against-israel-until-gaza-ceasefireapnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973Reporting on the 02/10 missile attack by Irantheguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/iranian-strikes-on-israel-what-happened-why-did-iran-attack-missiles-damage-what-nextYoav Gallant released videohttps://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1838265125784162815Reporting on potential Nasrallah Successorfrance24.com/en/middle-east/20241001-easy-choice-hezbollah-s-likely-new-leader-is-nasrallah-s-cousin-hashem-safieddineRoK decapitation strategynknews.org/2023/12/drills-on-assassinating-kim-jong-un-remain-an-option-rok-defense-chief-saysedition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/asia/south-korea-plan-to-assassinate-kim-jong-un/index.htmlThe F-35 incidentdefensenews.com/air/2022/09/07/pentagon-suspends-f-35-deliveries-over-chinese-alloy-in-magnetthediplomat.com/2022/09/chinese-parts-in-the-f-35-highlight-concerning-trend-in-the-us-defense-sectorReporting on PRC restrictions (or non-restrictions) on foreign hardware and softwarecnbc.com/2023/09/13/china-says-it-hasnt-banned-iphones-or-foreign-devices-for-government.htmlCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:45 — What Am I Talking About (And Not Talking About)?00:03:21 — Background00:09:24 — Setting Up The Pager Strike00:19:55 — The Day Of The Pagers00:27:14 — The Proxy Problem00:29:38 — Lessons On Supply Chain Integrity00:38:23 — A Kiwiland Dilemma00:48:46 — Personalised Deterrence?00:57:06 — Closing Thoughts00:59:12 — Channel Update
Korea & The Changing Global Arms Market - Inside Koreas Biggest Defence Exhibition (KADEX) Perun 2024-10-13 | Since 2022, global demand in the arms market has expanded rapidly as many countries rush to restock on systems and munitions as well as adopt new technologies that were increasingly proving their worth in Ukraine.In that environment, the Republic of Korea has become an increasingly prolific arms exporter, with the Korean defence industry working to sustain not just the ROK Armed Forces, but also inking major contracts with buyers from the Asia Pacific to Europe.So following an invitation from the organisers of Korea's largest Defence Exhibition, the Korea Army International Defence Industry Exhibition (KADEX), I thought it was time for something a little different this week.Join me for a bit of a Perun road-trip, as we look at range of Korean and international systems, the themes emerging from the event, and what it might indicate about the evolving defence market, and the RoK's role in it.Thousands of booths, tens of thousands of attendees, and one Aussie trying to bring you an inside look at it all. Thanks again to the organisers, my translator, and those who accepted (sometimes very long) interviews over the course of the event.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing (To follow within 24 hours due to late release)Note much of the content contained in this episode was specifically gathered for this channel on location..Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Please also refer to the disclosures in this video and find further details on KADEX at: kadexaroka.com/engTimestamps:00:00 — Opening01:41 — What Am I Talking About02:09 — KADEX06:16 — UAS Are Everywhere15:44 — Next Generation Armour24:00 — Automation27:04 — Fires - Munitions33:01 — Fires - Rocket Artillery Systems36:20 — Fires - SPGs45:17 — Watching Ukraine - Tactics49:00 — Watching Ukraine - Environment50:53 — Observations On The Conference59:52 — Channel Update
Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine - Atomic Coercion, Ukraine & the Nuclear Threshold Perun 2024-10-06 | Sponsored by Ground News: Go to https://ground.news/perun to compare news coverage, spot media bias, and avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription.We first discussed Russia's nuclear doctrine in 2022 - arguing that it suggested nuclear use was far less likely that some feared.Now, Russia is announcing changes to that doctrine, and so I want to look at what's changing, why, and what it might mean for the risk of nuclear war.Given the topic, expect the jokes to be a bit sparse...Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrencehttps://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman September 15, 2022https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1829920/?lang=enMedvedev on Telegram (2022)https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/203Joint Statement on Ukraine (2022)state.gov/joint-statement-on-ukraine-2Reporting on Russia's dirty bomb claims (2022)reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-doubles-down-dirty-bomb-claims-2022-10-25reuters.com/world/indias-defence-minister-warns-against-nuclear-weapons-call-with-russian-2022-10-26defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3202353/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-holds-a-press-conferencetass.com/politics/1526673ren.tv/news/v-mire/1040152-polianskii-nazval-glavnuiu-tsel-kieva-pri-provokatsii-s-griaznoi-bomboi(India and China playing a role in deterring Russian nuclear use)economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-china-helped-deter-russia-from-nuclear-use-says-blinken/articleshow/98228909.cms?from=mdr#google_vignetteBelarus on Russian nuclear weapons in the countryrferl.org/a/belarus-lukashenka-russia-nuclear-weapons/32920346.htmlInfosheet on UK nuclear deterrence policyassets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61eea6848fa8f505893f1e03/UK_Nuclear_Deterrence_Policy_Booklet.pdfPeter Dickinson - Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops workingatlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-keep-escalating-his-nuclear-blackmail-until-it-stops-workingSix Days in October (CSIS) - Lachlan MacKenziecsis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-09/240903_MacKenzie_SixDays_October.pdf?VersionId=slf3As45eT_JKVIXpEsEUwq3SYttzFkPCSIS - Deter and Divide Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in Ukrainefeatures.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoricDiscussion of Russia's changing nuclear doctrinecarnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-nuclear-doctrine-blackmail?lang=enreuters.com/world/europe/putin-draws-nuclear-red-line-west-2024-09-27bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjej0rvw0o2018 US NPRmedia.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdfMariana Budjeryn - Bulletin of the atomic scientists - Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it's winningthebulletin.org/2024/10/why-russia-is-more-likely-to-go-nuclear-in-ukraine-if-its-winningRussia warns US off sending long-range weapons to Ukraine (2022)apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-government-and-politics-c43d68369418ed2507f5432074d89932Sarmat test failurecbsnews.com/news/russian-icbm-test-launch-failediiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/09/russias-sarmat-icbm-woesRussia to stage nuclear exercisesdw.com/en/would-russia-really-attack-ukraine-with-nuclear-weapons/a-69020821Medvedev on nuclear usealjazeera.com/news/2022/9/22/russia-can-defend-new-regions-with-nuclear-weapons-medvedev-saystass.com/politics/1796377Scholz citing escalation riskhttps://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-cites-risk-escalation-deliver-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine/Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.Timestamps:00:00 — Opening Words 01:28 — What Am I Talking About? 03:56 — Doctrine And Strategy 07:21 — Russian Nuclear Doctrine 15:22 — Nuclear Coercion In 2022 27:18 — The New Doctrine 31:39 — Catalyst 38:02 — The Threat 45:07 — Does Doctrine Matter? 46:54 — The Logic Of Nuclear (Non)Use 52:17 — Nuclear Blackmail 59:50 — Channel Update
Ukraines Ammo Depot strikes - How Complacency (and drones) Destroyed Russian Bases Perun 2024-09-29 | Ammunition availability can make all the difference in a war, but only if it makes it to the troops on the front, rather than being destroyed in storage. Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions. In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUSpecial plug for the Battletech fans in the audience - Tex Talks Battletech : The Turning Point at Twycrossyoutube.com/watch?v=Fa1rfZsKfa0Reading and Sourcing:The War Zone & Maxar Technologies - before and after images of target sitestwz.com/news-features/satellite-images-show-massive-devastation-at-russian-ammo-storage-sites-struck-by-ukrainian-dronesCredit to @HartreeFock for his commentary on the construction phase of the Toropets magazineshttps://x.com/HartreeFock/status/1837087448448352289Credit to @Tatarrigami_UA and Frontintelligence insight for their work on Tikhoretsk https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1837359410479268180Featured TASS reports Reporting on Toropetstass.com/politics/1844703Claims of attacks on Ukrainian depotstass.com/politics/1804883Defence Express - identifying GRAU arsenals within 750km of Ukraineen.defence-ua.com/analysis/assessment_of_other_key_grau_arsenals_as_big_as_in_toropets_within_ukraines_reach-11911.htmlEstonian 30,000 tonnes at Toropets figure https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-loses-2-3-months-worth-of-ammunition-1726996045.htmltheconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438Additional featured imagery and coveragehttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/satellite-imagery-shows-that-russian-depots-near-tikhoretsk-and-oktyabrske-have-been-almost-completely-destroyed/Featured reportingaljazeera.com/news/2024/9/18/ukrainian-drone-attack-sparks-massive-blast-at-arsenal-in-russiabusinessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-damage-russian-arsenal-blew-up-earthquake-strength-2024-9businessinsider.com/us-himars-help-destroy-20-depots-of-russian-artillery-ammo-says-ukraine-2022-7edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.htmlwashingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/24/ukraine-weapons-limits-biden-permission-atacmsCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.Timestamps:00:00 — Opening Words 01:40 — What Am I Talking About? 02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage 06:56 — Depots Of Interest 10:10 — The Attacks 16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion 29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation 34:31 — Damage Assessment 42:21 — Implications 52:36 — Channel Update
The Ukrainian Economy at War (2024) - Defence Production, Energy & Endurance Perun 2024-09-22 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perunRecently, we spoke about the state of Russia's economy after more than two and a half years of war. It was characterised by strong growth but also signs of overheating, as the economy ran at or beyond capacity.Today, I want to cover the other side, and look at how Ukraine's is holding on after extensive Russian pressure. I'll look at headline economic indicators, the budget, defence production, and the impact of attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.Data, graphs and finances - it's sure to be a great time (if the upload is correct this time).Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:IMF - Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility... and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraineimf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/06/28/Ukraine-Fourth-Review-of-the-Extended-Arrangement-under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Request-551207IMF reach staff level agreement on fifth review under the EFFimf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/pr24326-IMF-and-Ukrainian-Authorities-Reach-Staff-Level-Agreement-Fifth-Review-EFFCentre for Economic Strategy (Ukrainian) war economy trackerhttps://ces.org.ua/en/tracker-economy-during-the-warOECD outlook, Ukraine 2024https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-cabinet-of-ministers-submits-2025-1726314318.htmlRussia increasing key rate to 19%https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/Reporting on Ukraine deal on pre-war debthttps://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-strike-deal-delay-debt-repayment/Ukraine approves draft 2025 budgetreuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-government-approves-2025-draft-budget-pm-says-2024-09-13https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/13/7474981/https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/13/7474981/https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-cabinet-of-ministers-submits-2025-1726314318.htmlAugust Russian missile attack, example reportinghttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-27/russia-hits-ukraine-s-power-grid/104272830Previous and other missile attack reportingaljazeera.com/news/2024/9/19/russian-attacks-on-ukraine-power-grid-probably-violate-humanitarian-law-unapnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-attacks-power-grid-oil-f117d1493f690d2192c9f6c60cbcf32dcbsnews.com/news/russia-missile-attack-ukraine-power-outages-kyivBodhana production reportingkyivindependent.com/ukraines-bohdana-howitzer-is-rolling-off-production-lines-heres-what-it-can-doFunding of UA defence industry using proceeds of Russian assetshttps://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/first-transfer-eu15-billion-proceeds-immobilised-russian-assets-made-available-support-ukraine-today-2024-07-26_eneuromaidanpress.com/2024/09/20/eu-funds-ukrainian-defense-industry-with-e400-million-from-frozen-russian-asset-proceedsRheinmetall in Ukrainerheinmetall.com/en/company/subsidiaries/rheinmetall-ukrainian-defense-industrythedefensepost.com/2024/05/17/rheinmetall-air-defense-facility-ukraine/#:~:text=A%20majority%2051%20percent%20of,of%20producing%20400%20tanks%20annually.rheinmetall.com/en/media/stories/2023/rheinmetall-a-powerful-partner-at-ukraine-sidedw.com/en/ukraine-updates-rheinmetall-plans-ukraine-arms-factories/live-68526705rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-19-joint-venture-in-the-ukrainedefenseone.com/business/2024/06/rheinmetall-opens-repair-center-armored-vehicles-ukraine/397283defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/11/rheinmetall-opens-repair-facility-for-combat-vehicles-in-ukraineCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:26 — Looking At Ukraine 00:10:38 — Production Volumes 00:13:35 — Fiscal Stability 00:26:40 — Defence Production 00:38:08 — The Long Range Strike Campaign 00:41:11 — The Ukrainian Power Grid 00:51:45 — What Is Going On Here? 00:56:38 — Interpreting The Data 01:03:08 — A Hard Winter Ahead 01:05:03 — Channel Update
Disappointing Systems in Ukraine - From imprecise precision munitions to explosive IFVs Perun 2024-09-15 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunWe've spent a lot of time in the past talking about systems that have been called 'game changers' or arguably overperformed in Ukraine, relative to either expectations, costs, or both.Today, we look at some of the opposite - systems that may not be having the expected impact, and which might prompt some thinking in planners observing the Ukrainian experience.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:DoD Reimbursable Rates FY2023comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/documents/rates/fy2023/2023_b_c.pdfvBMD-4M Product Informationhttps://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/armored-combat-vehicles/bmd-4m/US Army - FY 2025 Budget Estimates - Aircraft Procurement, Armyhttps://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2025/Base%20Budget/Procurement/Aircraft-Procurement-Army.pdfProgram Acquisition Cost by Weapon System United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Requestcomptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_Weapons.pdfChatham House - Assessing Russian Plans for Military Regenerationchathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/2024-07-09-assessing-russian-plans-military-boulegue-et-al.pdfExcalibur announcement and initial arrival reportingdefense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3179784/himars-excalibur-rounds-headed-for-ukraine-in-625-million-security-assistance-pinterestingengineering.com/videos/ep-5-why-is-the-m982-excalibur-round-a-game-changer-in-ukraineReporting on Polish AH-64 purchasehttps://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Press%20Release%20-%20Poland%2023-48%20CN.pdfreuters.com/world/poland-buys-96-apache-helicopters-us-2024-08-13breakingdefense.com/2024/08/a-breakthrough-moment-for-polish-military-aviation-as-apache-deal-is-signedReporting on Russian EWbusinessinsider.com/us-gave-up-sending-ukraine-100k-excalibur-shells-hit-targets-2024-5nytimes.com/2024/05/25/world/europe/us-weapons-russia-jamming-ukraine.htmlRoger McDermott "Shamanov Fights for VDV’s Future" - 2012jamestown.org/program/shamanov-fights-for-vdvs-futureSelected Acquisition Report (SAR) - AH-64E Apache New Build - Dec 2022https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2022_SARS/AH64E_New_Build_SAR_DEC_2022_edited.pdfReporting on FARAflightglobal.com/defence/how-combat-helicopter-losses-in-ukraine-brought-down-us-armys-fara-strategy/157468.articlehttps://www.defensenew s.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-billions-on-a-new-helicopter-that-now-will-never-fly/Russian Ultra-nationalist rally report 2007reuters.com/article/us-russia-racist/russian-ultra-nationalists-rally-as-police-watch-idUSL2851145120070128Japanhttps://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/japan-to-ditch-attack-helicopters#:~:text=Japan%20has%20declared%20its%20intention,five-year%20defence%20buildup%20plansinterceptor drone vs Helicoptertwz.com/air/ukraine-situation-report-russians-say-their-mi-8-hip-helicopter-shot-down-by-droneHellfire 2lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/hellfire/23-05810-TM_AGMS-HELLFIRE-II-Product-Card-1.pdfJAGMlockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/jagm/22-15188-TM-AGMS-Product-Card-Updates-JAGM.pdfPolish Chunmoo orderjanes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/industry/poland-orders-second-batch-of-chunmoo-mrlsvReporting on EW in Ukrainekyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-warafr.com/world/europe/russia-has-the-upper-hand-in-electronic-warfare-with-ukraine-20240108-p5evulSpike NLOS + AH-64https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/13280-lockheed-martin-successfully-completes-spike-nlos-from-apachevCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.Timestamps:00:00 — Opening Words 00:54 — What Am I Talking About? 03:08 — Rating This 05:15 — When Precision - Isn't 07:30 — Excalibur 12:51 — GLSDB 20:10 — The Paradrop Problem 32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters 35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses 41:08 — Polish Figures 47:04 — What Could It Be Instead? 54:01 — Not The End For Rotary... 58:13 — Channel Update
The Russian Economy at War (2024) - Sanctions, growth, inflation & mounting risks Perun 2024-09-08 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perunSince 2022, there have been wildly divergent predictions made about the way the Russian economy would hold up under pressure. Now, deep into Q3 2024 I want to have a closer look at the Russian economy, sanctions, and the risks it faces. And for a change in perspective, we will do it primarily using Russian data.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 26 July 2024 - https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18870Elvira Nabiullina’s speech at State Duma’s plenary session on Bank of Russia’s 2023 Annual Report -- https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18603Bank of Russia Annual Report 2023https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/49164/ar_2023_e.pdfRosstat - on industrial production in H1 2024https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/112_24-07-2024.htmlFeatured interview with Belousovhttps://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6428575?ref=en.thebell.ioRussia stops disclosing oil product datainterfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105511Russian claim of potential 6.8% manufacturing increase in 2024interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105607featured commentary on Russian economy featuring Russian dataen.thebell.io/central-bank-forecasts-suggest-higher-inflation-for-longeren.thebell.io/russias-wartime-investment-boomRussian economic reportinghttps://tass.ru/ekonomika/19550039?ref=en.thebell.ioreuters.com/markets/europe/russian-think-tank-warns-stagnating-industrial-output-investment-2024-04-27Reporting on payment issuesreuters.com/business/finance/russia-payment-hurdles-with-china-partners-intensified-august-sources-say-2024-08-30Russian gas flows per Reutersreuters.com/business/energy/russias-may-pipeline-gas-exports-europe-jump-39-calculations-show-2024-06-03The Houthi tanker storymaritime-executive.com/article/houthi-attack-damages-shadow-fleet-tanker-carrying-russian-oilUK vs the Shadow Fleetgcaptain.com/uk-leads-european-initiative-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleetUS announces new sanctionsedition.cnn.com/2024/06/12/politics/us-russia-sanction-g7-summit/index.htmlRussia ends subsidised mortgage programafr.com/property/residential/russia-ends-housing-mortgage-subsidy-that-stoked-a-property-boom-20240702-p5jqidBond rates perworldgovernmentbonds.comWestern components in Russian systems:rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine/interactive-summarythemoscowtimes.com/2024/07/10/western-parts-power-russian-missile-that-hit-kyiv-childrens-hospital-ft-a85669Signing bonusesedition.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europe/russia-moscow-troops-signing-bonus-intl-hnk/index.htmlkyivindependent.com/moscow-authorities-will-begin-paying-city-residents-almost-20-000-signing-bonus-for-joining-armySamantha Gross and Constanze Stelzenmüller - Europe’s messy Russian gas divorcehttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/Included, referenced or relevant reporting exampleshttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-s-military-spending-in-2024-estimated-at-140b-report-shows/3081698reuters.com/markets/europe/soaring-wages-record-low-unemployment-underscore-russias-labour-squeeze-2024-06-05rferl.org/a/china-eurasia-power-of-siberia-mongolia-putin/33086686.htmlVitaly Yermakov on Russian oil revenuesoxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdfCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Also note that I have not independently verified any of the data or reporting presented in this piece, and would particularly note that significant amounts of data released by the Russian Government or related figures has been used which has not been subject to verification or significant scrutiny. Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:49 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:09 — The Russian Economy At A Glance 00:09:20 — Investment And Military Production 00:11:24 — Three Drivers 00:14:41 — Rostec And The Russian DIB 00:23:05 — Wartime Expenses 00:28:48 — Hydrocarbons 00:35:12 — Sanctions Pain 00:47:14 — An Economy Overheating 00:58:32 — What Does This Mean? 01:00:27 — The Danger Of Peacetime 01:04:12 — Channel Update
Russia and Ukraine on the Offensive - Kursk, the Donbass & Escalating Long-Range Strikes Perun 2024-09-01 | At times, the war in Ukraine has had a relatively clear division between the power currently on the offensive, and the opposing force standing on the defensive. For most of the war Russia has held the initiative, and in 2024 that clearly remains the case along much of the front. But as Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region continues, it's become clear that the Russia may not hold a monopoly on battlefield initiative, and there are questions as to what the duelling offensives, Ukraine in Kursk and Russia elsewhere, are ultimately achieving for both sides.In this episode, we zoom in on the developments in Kursk and Pokrovsk, look at the escalation of the long-range strike efforts, including the reported development of new systems like Ukrainian jet powered attack drones, and ask how, and if, these current efforts might be shaping the conflict at a strategic level.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Sources & Reading: To be completed by 04/09 due to late releaseTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:36 — Catching Up 00:02:54 — Kursk Now 00:07:17 — Korenevo 00:09:15 — Glushkovo 00:14:42 — Other Ukrainian Operations 00:17:06 — Russia's Offensive 00:20:48 — Pokrovsk 00:25:25 — Evaluating The Balance 00:32:41 — Long Range Strike Campaign - Ukraine 00:33:30 — Impact 00:44:24 — Enter The Bread Missile 00:52:56 — Risks And The Way Forward 00:56:23 — Making An Impression 00:59:01 — Conclusions 01:00:35 — Channel Update
Military Decoys in Ukraine - Fake equipment, inflatables & lessons in deception for foreign forces Perun 2024-08-25 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perunPatreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:ADP 3-37 Protection (US Army)irp.fas.org/doddir/army/adp3_37.pdfFM 3-13.4 (2019) (US Army)irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm3-13-4.pdfDr. Phil Haun Attacking Fielded Forceshttps://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-95/jfq-95_70-77_Haun.pdf?ver=2019-11-22-115925-903Inflatech decoysinflatechdecoy.com/featuresFM 20-3 Camouflage, Concealment, and Decoys (US Army)archive.org/details/army-fm-20-3-camouflage-concealment-and-decoysRemy Hemez - Decoys in Land Warfarewarontherocks.com/2021/04/to-survive-deceive-decoys-in-land-warfareMaster Sergeant Jorge L. Rivero (USMC) Decoy Warfare: Lessons and Implication from the War in Ukraineusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/april/decoy-warfare-lessons-and-implication-war-ukraine#:~:text=Ukrainian%20Use%20of%20Decoys&text=A%20notable%20instance%20occurred%20during,confusing%20the%20advancing%20Russian%20forces.Magazine depth slide source imagenaval-technology.com/news/lockheed-martin-aids-missile-production-capacity-with-us-dod-deal/?cf-viewFeatured images of IRIS-T decoytwz.com/land/ukraines-air-defense-decoys-keep-getting-betterJoint Threat Emitternorthropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/joint-threat-emitter-jteF-16 Decoy imagetwz.com/air/inflatable-ukrainian-f-16-decoy-emerges-at-defense-showMarinovka airbase strike imagery https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/23/7471500/Telegraph story on S-300 in Crimeatelegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/22/speedo-wearing-russian-tourists-leak-defence-secrets-twitterVarious reporting on decoy use in Ukrainebusinessinsider.com/ukraine-using-fake-wooden-rocket-launchers-russia-waste-missiles-report-2022-8?r=US&IR=Tthedefensepost.com/2023/09/13/ukraine-fake-howitzers-russiaedition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-decoy-weapons-intl/index.htmlhttps://x.com/tom_bullock_/status/1521598016221810690theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/04/a-psychological-weapon-inside-a-ukrainian-factory-making-decoy-kithttps://www.edrmagazine.eu/metinvest-begins-production-of-decoy-military-equipment-that-misleads-the-enemyen.defence-ua.com/news/russians_have_a_rubber_army_of_inflatable_tanks_which_are_thrown_onto_the_battlefield-5583.htmljanes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/c4isr/idet-2023-inflatable-leopard-2a4-decoys-sent-to-ukrainenytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/europe/russia-decoy-weapon.html?%5C%5C&_r=1popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a41043604/ukraine-himars-decoysreddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1d67n5h/ua_pov_the_mass_production_of_m777_artillerynavalnews.com/naval-news/2024/08/russia-deploys-fake-kilo-class-submarine-in-sevastopolhttps://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/03/11/7445807/telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/29/ukraine-decoy-weapons-surge-russia-steps-up-attackshttps://mstdn.social/@noelreports/110813652569123568bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/08/07/plastic-and-wooden-debris-russian-lancet-may-have-hit-fake-iris-tforbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/25/russias-inflatable-tanks-are-back-in-action/?sh=70b484fbda68https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1742605606312100129wsj.com/world/how-ukraine-tricks-russia-into-wasting-ammunition-799ed95farmyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/czech-made-m270-mlrs-inflatable-decoy-from-inflatech-tricks-russian-strike-forces-in-ukrainehttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-painting-false-airplanes-at-airfields/rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/russia-painted-fake-fighter-jets-its-airfields-new-satellite-images-show-likely-trick-ukraine-not#:~:text=United%20Services%20Institute-,Russia%20painted%20fake%20fighter%20jets%20at%20its%20airfields%2C%20new%20satellite,blowing%20up%20the%20real%20dealCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00 — Opening Words 01:19 — What Am I Talking About? 03:39 — Historic Deception 08:47 — Decoys 101 16:04 — Decoys In Ukraine 18:57 — Mitigating Responsive Fires 30:39 — Tactical Targets? 38:01 — Russian Decoy Efforts 45:26 — Foreign Militaries 57:38 — Conclusions 58:28 — Channel Update
Ukraines Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraines push into Russia Perun 2024-08-18 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunFor the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Sources & Reading (in process of revision - to be revised 04/09):Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:45 — The War In August 2024 00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning? 00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia 00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine 00:17:17 — Defence Lines 00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent 00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations 00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions 00:44:30 — The Russian Response 00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic? 00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives 01:00:12 — What Comes Next? 01:03:29 — Conclusions 01:04:42 — Channel Update
Air Defence In Ukraine (2024): Creativity, Anti-air drones, Shortages & Lessons Perun 2024-08-11 | One of the constant features of the war in Ukraine to date has been a general environment of mutual air-denial. The VKS has been able to launch stand-off attacks using missiles, drones, and glide bombs (while Ukraine relies to a greater extent on drones and Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCMS) but neither side has been able to develop or sustain air superiority over the other's territory. But while that state has persisted for nearly two and half years at this point, that doesn't mean the situation is static. Ukraine's long range strike capabilities have improved, even as constant Russian attacks have driven major shortages in air defence missiles and systems in Ukraine. Partly in response to those supply challenges, we've seen various acts of creativity and innovation, from the use of FPVs as anti-air systems to the focus on a counter-air campaign. In this episode, we look at the recent Air Defence efforts in Ukraine, ask how Russia and Ukraine have approached the air defence problem, and what those observations might offer in terms of lines of inquiry for other nations. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:FPV v ISR drone engagementshttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-fpv-drones-shot-down-two-reconnaissance-uavs/Reporting on the use of ultralight aircraft to hunt dronestwz.com/air/ultralight-drone-hunting-planes-now-in-use-in-ukraineRUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defencestatic.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdfPatriot TEL loss image (as others, taking from visually confirmed loss database)postlmg.cc/Th15s6RYRussia claiming Patriot TELs hit near Odesa https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21297189Ukraine receives first F-16bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwoUkrainian claims relating to Patriot TEL decoyskyivindependent.com/russia-hit-mock-ups-during-recent-attacks-on-airfield-patriot-launchers-ukraines-air-force-saysIncluded article on the Yak-52 of Odesaforbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/14/isnt-it-time-to-shoot-him-down-russians-grow-frustrated-with-ukraines-yak-52-drone-killerCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:14 — Air Defences & The War Of Attrition 00:03:51 — Losses & Replacements 00:10:28 — Assessing Strain 00:12:53 — Ukrainian Usage 00:28:54 — Russia 00:50:54 — Converting Intelligence To Kills 00:59:17 — Conclusions 01:00:56 — Channel Update
The Race for Next Generation Submarines - Ageing Fleets, Innovation, & Undersea Dominance Perun 2024-08-04 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perunNuclear powered submarines are often among the most complex and expensive systems ever fielded by any military. However, for decades, they (and less expensive conventionally powered designs) have been considered a cornerstone of naval power by many navies because of the unique capabilities they offer.With new anti-submarine threats emerging, from new sensors to unmanned systems, many nations are now preparing to design and produce a new generation of submarines to answer those threats, leverage new technologies, and keep up with international competitors. Today, we take a look at that emerging development and construction race.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:Unless otherwise noted - platform counts are usually as per MB2024RUSI - The Yasen-M and the future of the Russian Submarine Forcerusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/yasen-m-and-future-russian-submarine-forcesGAO - Weapon Systems Annual Assessment 2023gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106059.pdfCRS - Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congresssgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32665.pdfCBO - Analysis of the USN 2024 shipbuilding plancbo.gov/publication/59708#:~:text=The%202024%20plan%20reflects%20the,ships%20(see%20Table%203).USNI - Lieutenant Commander Patrick Rawlinson, U.S. Navy - Torpedoes: Get Smaller to Think Biggerusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/march/torpedoes-get-smaller-think-biggerUSNI - Russia’s Kilo-class Submarine: Improved And More Deadly Than Everusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/august/russias-kilo-class-submarine-improved-and-more-deadly-everEmma Salisbury - The sinking submarine industrial basewarontherocks.com/2023/10/the-sinking-submarine-industrial-baseReporting on SSN(X)navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/05/u-s-navy-outlines-the-next-generation-attack-submarine-ssnx-programCRS on SSN(X)crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11826Reporting on large-diameter submarinesnews.usni.org/2023/11/08/navy-mulling-large-diameter-subs-hulls-after-12-columbias-ssnx-requirements-due-next-yearSubmarine industrial base council - VPMsubmarinesuppliers.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Virginia-Payload.pdfReporting on UK navy Sub-drone teamingdefensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/01/uk-navy-to-take-drone-teaming-operations-underwater-with-new-submarineJapan issues military equipment wishlistnews.usni.org/2023/01/25/japan-issues-military-equipment-wishlist-that-includes-hypersonic-weapons-unmanned-systemsJapan commissions first of new submarine classdefensenews.com/naval/2022/03/10/japan-commissioned-first-of-new-submarine-classUSNI - GAO on shipyardsnews.usni.org/2024/05/07/gao-tells-senate-panel-u-s-shipyards-are-major-readiness-concernTASS - Mozhaisk diesel-electric submarine joins Navytass.com/defense/1712845RIA Novosti on Husky and Kalinahttps://vpk.name/en/543537_the-central-design-bureau-rubin-presented-to-the-ministry-of-defense-several-projects-of-submarines-of-the-fifth-generation.htmlRestart of Mk48 productionseapowermagazine.org/rear-adm-perry-first-new-production-mark-48-torpedoes-set-for-2022-deliveryImage used for Surrogat-Vhttps://en.topwar.ru/200663-anpa-surrogat-v-novyj-variant-mnogoobeschajuschej-koncepcii.htmlSpearfish Mod 1 goes into servicenavylookout.com/spearfish-mod-1-torpedo-goes-into-service-after-final-trials-by-hms-audaciousVery light weight torpedo imagenorthropgrumman.com/what-we-do/sea/manufacturing-the-very-lightweight-torpedoUSNI - First Columbia Class Ballistic Missile Submarine begins to take shapenews.usni.org/2022/03/08/first-columbia-ballistic-missile-submarine-begins-to-take-shapeReporting on RAPTORtwz.com/sea/navy-wants-a-cheap-heavy-torpedo-that-can-be-stockpiled-fastArctic Class SSBN conceptnavalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russia-reveals-radical-new-stealth-missile-submarine/#prettyPhotoCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:05 — The Push For A New Generation 00:07:43 — Next Generation Technologies 00:18:34 — The US Submarine Fleet 00:35:22 — The Russian Federation 00:55:14 — Japan 01:03:53 — Risk & Drawbacks 01:06:01 — Channel Update
Ukrainian Equipment Losses and Resupply (2024): Allied support, captured equipment & endurance Perun 2024-07-28 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunTwo weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (youtu.be/xF-S4ktINDU)However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:One chart shows the Strv 122 appearing twice - this is an error however the data shown is correct in both cases.I will also note the M113 supply list includes both Benelux and Netherlands lines. These relate to separate efforts for different vehicles in the M113 family. With the Dutch line relating to the YPR-765All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Sources & Reading:This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up frontThe primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases - this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges. Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:Germany and Slovakia work to extend repair hub beyond 2024defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/05/17/germany-slovakia-work-to-extend-repair-hub-for-ukraine-beyond-2024Russia's demilitarisation headline from June 2023tass.com/politics/1634505CV-90 supplydefensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/12/netherlands-to-supply-first-dutch-built-cv90-ifvs-to-ukraine-in-2026/#:~:text=PARIS%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Netherlands%20will%20deliver,the%20government%20said%20June%207.Ukrainian pilots training on Gripen - 2023twz.com/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripenDenmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weekshttps://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-netherlands-say-14-leopard-tanks-will-be-dispatched-to-ukraine-within-weeks/Spain to deliver HAWKhttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/spain-to-reinforce-ukraine-s-air-defense-with-hawk-air-defense-systems-in-september/France to deliver SPGsapnews.com/article/france-ukraine-ammunition-howitzers-af44ababeef42de98170660cc1753b77Ukrainian MoD on equipment restorationen.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_defense_ministry_reports_1500_pieces_of_equipment_returned_to_the_army_including_armored_vehicles-11086.htmlUkraine to create new brigadeshttps://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455192/Ukrainian General on Equipment shortageseconomist.com/europe/2024/05/10/ukraine-will-hold-if-it-gets-the-arms-it-needs-says-a-top-general?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1zsdvuygiOycSW9aHdiS0D1K0Wj4xPzTfZhd05V3iy0WFWMH2zwUYLN_g_aem_ASt-eCh1wQ7gs7PUOSlFQaRnNg6sIcYo12LYbZIDVBoIat8HYv683Mj9BVWvMckeggjmbXI8AZV5-Ainv60EBhSDFinland announcing another aid package - sans detailskyivindependent.com/finland-sends-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-over-200-millionTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia 00:06:47 — The Quality Question 00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured 00:19:38 — Losses 00:26:04 — Inputs 00:30:53 — MBTs 00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS 00:45:04 — Aircraft 00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition 01:01:07 — Channel Update
North Korean Military Capabilities & Strategy - Nukes, Numbers & (bad) Economics Perun 2024-07-21 | The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA North Korea) is perhaps the strangest military power we've ever had a detailed look at on this channel from a defence economic perspective.It's a nation of extremes - building nuclear weapons and ICBMs while requiring food aid, and fielding one of the world's largest active duty militaries with a population not that different from the likes of Australia. With the recent signing of a partnership agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow, I thought it was finally time for a more detailed look at the DPRK and the Korean People's army. Be aware, this is going to be a slightly weird one.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing:Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel estimates are per MB2022 for consistency with other episodes.US Defense Intelligence Agency - North Korean Military Power 2021https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/NKMP.pdfForeign Language Publishing House (North Korea), Kim Jong Il Biography marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol1.pdfmarxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol2.pdfmarxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol3.pdfmarxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol4.pdfATP 7-100.2 NORTH KOREAN TACTICS 2020irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp7-100-2.pdfThe Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - North Korean Nuclear Weapons 2024thebulletin.org/premium/2024-07/north-korean-nuclear-weapons-2024Kim Jong Il - The Songun-based revolutionary line is a great revolutionary line of our era and an ever-victorious banner of our revolution - Talk to the Senior Officials of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (2003)marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/works/The-Songun-Based-Revolutionary-Line-Is-A-Great-Revolutionary-Line-Of-Our-Era-And-An-Ever-Victorious-Banner-Of-Our-Revolution.pdfFeatured articles or imagesthediplomat.com/2017/07/north-koreas-new-kn19-coastal-defense-cruise-missile-more-than-meets-the-eyehttps://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/657089/us-air-force-f-22-raptors-arrive-at-osan-air-base/latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-north-korea-food-trump-kim-summit-20190309-story.htmlCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:43 — The Great Unknowns 00:02:35 — History 00:07:21 — Lesson - The Songun Paradox 00:16:48 — Defining Objectives 00:27:55 — The KPA 00:47:48 — The Air Force 00:53:32 — Naval Component 00:57:31 — Nuclear Program 01:06:07 — The Russia Connection 01:09:25 — Channel Update
Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine - The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putins Ceasefire demand Perun 2024-07-07 | Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine's allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own. It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine's allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question....will they improve Russia's position or leave it at greater risk than before.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing (WIP) :Maps of territorial control per Deepstatemap as alwaysVisually confirmed equipment losses per OryxKharkiv specific figures per @naalsio26TASS on KCNA releasing the agreement text:tass.com/politics/1805661TASS on the Putin 'peace plan' (including the requirement for a Ukrainian withdrawal)tass.com/pressreview/1804269Reporting on Results of the Swiss summitapnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-switzerland-war-conference-burgenstock-568cafee5fbe9c3b19b79b041583a5d6Estonian MoD: Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeathttps://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdfReporting on US restricting Ukrainian strikes on Russian territorywashingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/21/ukraine-firing-range-us-weapons-russiaReporting on Zelensky removing Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol bbc.com/news/articles/c7225wrzlpqoReporting on Ammunition Supplyreuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-gunners-finally-get-shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21US sending legacy SAMS to Ukrainereuters.com/world/europe/us-send-ukraine-air-defense-missiles-next-aid-package-officials-2024-06-28TASS on Russian advance in Kharkiv slowingtass.com/politics/1797759Featured Guardian article on Kharkivtheguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/16/russian-soldier-says-army-suffering-heavy-losses-in-kharkiv-offensiveReporting on the 'buffer zone' motive for the Kharkiv offensivehttps://www.politico.eu/article/kharkiv-capture-ukraine-war-russian-invasion-vladimir-putin-buffer-zone-belgorod/#:~:text=And%20I%20have%20said%20publicly,be%20no%20comfort%20to%20Ukrainians.Chasiv Yarreuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-took-control-district-chasiv-yar-ukraine-2024-07-03Featured Stoltenberg quotehttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227330.htmThe response to the Putin peace offer at the Swiss summitbbc.com/news/articles/cxee131gejpoIncluded Kharkiv imagevoanews.com/a/ukraine-says-it-hit-latest-generation-russian-fighter-jet-for-first-time/7648644.htmlBBC on Putin's ceasefire offerbbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20doCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?00:01:43 — The Russian Effort00:04:38 — Battlefield Dynamics00:11:32 — Losses & Costs00:20:10 — Kharkiv And Escalation00:26:28 — The Korean Connection00:39:26 — The Long Range Campaign00:47:59 — Putin's "Peace"01:00:58 — What Next?01:02:56 — Channel Update
Fully Autonomous Weapon Systems - The technology, capability and controversy of robots at war Perun 2024-06-30 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunFor all the changes we've seen in weapon systems, the role of humans as the key decision makers when it comes to the use of force has remained. But what happens when machines develop to the point where they are increasingly able to perceive the battlefield and make that decision for themselves.As the AI rush plays out, compute becomes cheaper and battlefield pressures play out, nations may face increasing pressure to unleash autonomous systems from their human handlers. So in this episode we discuss the potential of these systems, some of the advantages and pressures that might drive their development...and what the prospect for international regulation might be before the killer robots start to take the field in significant numbers.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Sources & Reading (limited as I was ill – may update in coming week)Submission by the Russian Federation – Approaches of the Russian Federation to the issue of emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systemsdocs-library.unoda.org/Convention_on_Certain_Conventional_Weapons_-Group_of_Governmental_Experts_on_Lethal_Autonomous_Weapons_Systems_(2024)/CCW-GGE.1-2024-WP.2.pdfFinal report of the Panel of Experts on Libya established pursuant to Security Council resolution 1973 (2011) – Dated 8 March 2021documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n21/037/72/pdf/n2103772.pdf?token=xJC2PHgGvDGWD55OB1&fe=trueDoD FY 2024 Budget Estimates – Air Force – RDT&Ehttps://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/documents/FY24/Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation/FY24%20Air%20Force%20Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20II.pdf?ver=pYOQLrjX71gVe8w6FCJOwg%3D%3D#page=500USNI – Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems news.usni.org/2022/11/17/defense-primer-u-s-policy-on-lethal-autonomous-weapon-systemsCRS report referenced abovedocumentcloud.org/documents/23310494-if11150?responsive=1&title=1CRS - International Discussions Concerning Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systemscrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11294Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief saysdefensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-saysIAI – Harpy Anti-Radiation Autonomous Weaponhttps://www.iai.co.il/p/harpyhttps://www.iai.co.il/sites/default/files/2023-06/HARPY%20Brochure.pdfEpoch AI piece on GPU performance epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performanceKangaroos vs Self Driving Carstheguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/01/volvo-admits-its-self-driving-cars-are-confused-by-kangaroosJavglevskaja & Liivoja - Balancing the lopsided debate on autonomous weapon systemshttps://www.aspistrategist.org.au/balancing-the-lopsided-debate-on-autonomous-weapon-systems/Drone image sourcespslandforces.com/story/?id=747&h=Swarm-Drones---New-Frontier-of-WarfareTimestamps:00:00 — Opening Words00:47 — What Am I Talking About?03:19 — The Emergence Of Autonomy07:15 — Human Out Of The Loop Operation13:33 — Tactical Advantages And Application22:25 — Pressures For Deployment32:04 — A Path Towards Regulation?45:36 — Channel Update
The New Space Race, SpaceX & Starship - Satellite constellations & Launcher Evolution Perun 2024-06-09 | For both military and civilian applications, launching satellites into orbit has long been both useful and incredibly expensive. But over the last decade, the costs to put payload into orbit have shrunk dramatically, driven by launchers like the SpaceX Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy while the number of satellites in orbit has exploded. And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon. In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.For notes on costs and launch estimates - see notes further below.Also see notes in description regarding nomenclature.Readings and Sources:RUSI - Jamming JDAMrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfareVICTUS NOXhttps://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsroom/Article-Display/Article/3679056/us-space-force-successfully-concludes-victus-nox-tactically-responsive-space-miQ1 upmass by launch provider image from - https://x.com/BryceSpaceTech?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EauthorSpace X smallsat rideshare programspacex.com/ridesharePayloadResearch - The Starship Reportpayloadspace.com/starship-reportFutron - -Space Transportation Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-2000 (used as baseline for costs for older systems)yumpu.com/en/document/read/36996100/space-transportation-costs-trends-in-price-per-pound-to-orbit-U.S. Army on next-gen satcom https://www.army.mil/article/249066/army_leverages_innovative_industry_partnerships_for_next_gen_satcom_capabilitiesUSAF - The U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan (2003)https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA458089.pdfDARPA contracting for DRIFTbreakingdefense.com/2023/05/darpa-contracts-4-firms-for-drift-radar-imagery-experimentsSpaceX launches NRO payloadsreuters.com/technology/space/spacex-launches-first-satellites-new-us-spy-constellation-2024-05-22SpaceX 2023 launches at a glance imagespaceexplored.com/2023/12/29/spacex-launches-2023reuters.com/technology/space/musks-spacex-is-building-spy-satellite-network-us-intelligence-agency-sources-2024-03-16Included video of the Singapore Satellite Industry Forum 2013https://x.com/StormSurgeMedia/status/1675932589930979351Reporting on PRC sat goalsdefenseone.com/technology/2024/02/china-building-its-own-starlinkeven-questions-surround-musks-constellation/394453Satellite imagery for Ukrainebreakingdefense.com/2022/08/iceye-to-supply-ukraine-with-sar-satellite-imagery-via-ukrainian-foundationThe Space Industry After the Russo-Ukrainian Warwarontherocks.com/2022/06/sanctions-and-satellites-the-space-industry-after-the-russo-ukrainian-warSpace X losing 40 satstheguardian.com/science/2022/feb/09/spacex-to-lose-up-to-40-starlink-satellites-after-geomagnetic-stormAriane 6phys.org/news/2024-06-europe-delayed-ariane-rocket-july.htmlOneWeb taking the hit for cancelled Soyuz launchspacenews.com/oneweb-takes-229-million-charge-for-canceled-soyuz-launchesBBC on India moon missionbbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67621968Note on launch mass and cost per payload estimates.Calculating the 'cost/price per KG' of a system can be difficult. Different launches involve different margins and additional (e.g. safety or national security) demand driven costs. The manner in which project and related costs are rolled into launch costs or prices is also inconsistent across sources. For this video, values should be treated as indicative and are generally based on a compilation of publicly available prices and launch data compiled by Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) - out of necessity, some assumptions have been required (e.g. including estimating payload mass).Unless otherwise noted, costs are based on prices for commercial launches.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:21 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — Space Driven Advantage 00:07:10 — The Constellation Revolution 00:14:53 — The Constellation Escalation 00:19:01 — Capacity As The Commodity 00:23:29 — National Launch Programs: Russia 00:32:44 — Let's Talk USA 00:35:19 — SpaceX Path To Dominance 00:49:05 — Starship And Its Implications 00:55:57 — Other Players? 00:59:51 — The Way Forward
The Race for Next Generation Bombers - Stealth, Drones & the B-21, H-20 & PAK DA programs Perun 2024-06-02 | While the push for next generation fighters probably wins more public and internet attention, the drive to field new bomber aircraft with sixth generation features is also pushing the limits of what aircraft designers can accomplish.And with the first flights of the B-21 Raider now documented, it may also be a race far closer to the finish line.In this episode I look at the three main members of the strategic bomber club, their next generation bomber programs, and ask both what these systems might mean, and why they seem likely to serve alongside much older, legacy platforms.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUReading and Sourcing (Incomplete):GAO: Weapon System Sustainment Aircraft - GAO-23-106217gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106217.pdfCRS: Air Force Next-Generation Bomber Background and Issues for Congress (2009)crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL34406/13CRS: Air Force B-21 Raider Long-Range Strike Bomber (2021)crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44463/14Mentioned Videos - The Race for Next Generation Fightersyoutube.com/watch?v=RPrWm6fWuaMMentioned Videos - Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure - does strategic bombing ever work?youtube.com/watch?v=CE6RINU8JLgNorthrop Grumman on the B-21northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/B-21-Need-To-KnowJanes - H-20 close to first flightjanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/chinas-h-20-stealth-bomber-close-to-first-flightBronk, J. Russian and Chinese Combat Air Trends (2020)static.rusi.org/russian_and_chinese_combat_air_trends_whr_final_web_version.pdfUS DoD - Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (2023)media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDFTASS on the PAK DAtass.com/defense/1321611tass.com/defense/1529991tass.com/defense/1716897tass.com/defense/1160253tass.com/defense/1011433TASS on S-300 and S-400 vs Stealthtass.com/defense/954905tass.com/defense/1561277USAF B-52s fly near Kaliningradairandspaceforces.com/usaf-b-52-bombers-baltics-near-russian-territoryThe Global Times on H-20https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308604.shtmlAnonymous US official on H-20breakingdefense.com/2024/04/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-not-really-a-concern-for-pentagon-says-intel-official/#:~:text=In%20March%2C%20a%20Chinese%20military,%2C%20you%20know%2C%20military%20power.Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:54 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:32 — History 00:11:12 — Modern And Future Roles 00:16:53 — The Three Bomber Fleets 00:23:09 — Next Generation Features 00:28:03 — The United States 00:36:03 — China 00:38:58 — Russia 00:46:34 — Bomb Trucks And Force Design 00:50:54 — The US Future Fleet 00:54:53 — The Chinese Future Fleet 00:55:57 — The Russian Future Fleet 01:01:02 — Potential For Future Growth? 01:02:46 — Channel Update
Russias Kharkiv Offensive and Leadership Purge - Shoigus removal, Kharkiv & What next for Ukraine? Perun 2024-05-26 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunThe last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed.Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city. In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Reading and Sources:Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/Thanks and credit to @naalsio26 for his geolocation and tabulation of VC losses by region and to warmapper.org for their fortification mapping workTASS confirming Lapin's appointment to the Leningrad military districttass.com/defense/1788573Reporting on the build-up towards the recent offensive:reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-preparing-100000-troops-possibly-summer-offensive-push-2024-03-22kyivindependent.com/military-russia-gathers-100-000-soldiers-unit-for-alleged-offensive-effort-in-summer-of-2024Reminder of Popov's previous criticism of Russian military leadershipreuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-dismissed-after-accusing-top-brass-failing-soldiers-2023-07-13"The Russians simply walked in"bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xoUkrainian raids into Belgorod - May 2023theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinkaUkraine Border Guard warning regarding the Sumy regionkyivpost.com/post/33017Zelensky on shell supplykyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortageReporting on the Recent offensivekyivindependent.com/explainer-russias-most-recent-offensive-into-kharkiv-oblast**due to late upload this list will be extended on 27/05**Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:00:59 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:56 — The Russian Political Context 00:14:01 — The Military Context 00:17:17 — A Quiet Front 00:19:34 — Buildup And Operations 00:32:21 — The Operation Unfolds 00:37:07 — Purpose And Value 00:44:19 — Observations - Russia 00:54:10 — Observations & Recriminations - Ukraine 01:00:56 — What Next? 01:03:04 — Channel Update
The Future of the Submarine - Emerging Threats, Sensors & Transparent Oceans Perun 2024-05-19 | In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we've seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability.But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true.So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing:Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams - Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperablehttps://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/transparent_oceans_report_anu_nsc_2020_0.pdfBradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the abovehttps://www.aspistrategist.org.au/advances-in-detection-technology-could-render-aukus-submarines-useless-by-2050/Brixey-Williams - Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technologyhttps://www.aspistrategist.org.au/prospects-for-game-changers-in-submarine-detection-technology/The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Surveyhttps://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/16145/future-undersea-deterrent-global-surveyEvan Lisman - Non-Acoustic Submarine Detection 2019ontheradar.csis.org/issue-briefs/non-acoustic-submarine-detectionCRS - Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congresssgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R41129.pdfCSIS - The First Battle of the Next War csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQAndrew Davies - Submarines: does Moore mean less?https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/submarines-does-moore-mean-less/The Atlantic - Where the Whale Things Aretheatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/where-the-whale-things-are/471795Submarines vs surface ships in wargamesafr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kiryoutube.com/watch?v=d8Kv4rqR6RQ&t=1spopularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a19784775/gotland-class-sub-ronald-reagan-war-gamesICESat-2 websiteicesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov/space-lasersSquadron Leader Wren & Squadron Leader May - Detection of Submerged Vessels Using Remote Sensing Techniques (1997 ADFJ)nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/detection.pdfReporting on Chinese detection innovationshttps://navalinstitute.com.au/china-says-it-has-way-to-better-detect-submarinesReporting on Indian SLBM testaljazeera.com/news/2022/10/15/india-says-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-test-is-successWake Detection images, reporting and solicitations (incomplete)forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/16/new-us-navy-airborne-radar-may-spot-submerged-submarines/?sh=584f4ee955d4 Featured Guardian article theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/will-all-submarines-even-nuclear-ones-be-obsolete-and-visible-by-2040Navy Lookout - Killing submarines by dronenavylookout.com/killing-submarines-by-droneUSNI News - Sonar equipped drone fleets could be key to future submarine warfarenews.usni.org/2020/03/09/sonar-equipped-drone-fleets-could-be-key-to-future-submarine-warfareCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:34 — What Am I Not Talking About00:01:50 — History00:11:49 — What Makes A Submarine? 00:24:08 — Emutopia & Kiwiland00:28:12 — The Economics 00:34:42 — Vulnerabilities00:50:03 — Countermeasures And Challenges00:52:40 — The Submarine Fights Back00:53:34 — If Not The Submarine01:00:01 — What Next? 01:01:51 — Channel Update
Turtle Tanks, Cope Cages & Modified Vehicles in Ukraine - Purpose, Evolution & Effectiveness Perun 2024-05-12 | When you fight a war against a backdrop of shortages, emerging threats and Slavic ingenuity, perhaps it's not surprising that you end up with a bunch of systems being used that aren't exactly factory standard.One of the first images of the Russian invasion were tanks equipped with add-on overhead cages, but in 2024 the most extreme examples of anti-drone protection now include vehicles with entire structures built over them to provide near all round protection.In this episode, I look at vehicle modification in Ukraine, examine some of the main classes of modification and ad-hoc vehicles we've seen and ask why they exist, and what sort of military value they might have.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing (incomplete due to late release):CBO - Technical Challenges of the U.S. Army’s Ground Combat Vehicle Programhttps://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA591460.pdfSpecial thanks to the Armourer's bench for their work tracking individual turtle tanks in Ukraineyoutube.com/@TheArmourersBenchLikewise thanks to Chris at Task and Purpose for discussing modifications for vehicles in the US Armyyoutube.com @TaskandpurposeJulien Potin - Finabel - Understanding Cope Cages: From Origins to Standardisationfinabel.org/understanding-cope-cages-from-origins-to-standardisation/#:~:text=Considered%20a%20form%20of%20improvised,and%20assessing%20their%20perceived%20impact.As a throwback - RUSI comment on cages in 2022rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/russian-tanks-ukraine-are-sprouting-cagesAttribution of Ukrainian MT-LB 100mm modifications to a unit level efforthttps://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/13/7363131/Russia showing off drone cage options at Army 2023twz.com/cope-cages-go-mainstream-at-russias-arms-bazaarReporting on various modified or ad-hoc vehicleskyivpost.com/analysis/22054https://en.topwar.ru/212469-specoperacija-porozhdaet-monstrov-obzor-nashih-mt-lb-s-korabelnymi-artillerijskimi-ustanovkami.htmlaljazeera.com/news/2024/3/14/nato-allies-must-do-more-ukraine-running-out-of-ammunition-stoltenbergforbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/10/congratulations-russia-youve-invented-an-even-more-dangerous-self-exploding-van/?sh=3d2f464d4f10businessinsider.com/video-shows-russia-tank-topped-with-ridiculously-tall-cage-2023-10forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/04/the-russians-bolted-1950s-naval-guns-to-armored-tractors-and-produced-nearly-useless-combat-vehicles/?sh=1e9e1b328464economist.com/science-and-technology/russian-tanks-in-ukraine-are-sprouting-cages/21808191rferl.org/a/makeshift-armor-ukraine-war-invasion-mad-max/32369222.htmlIsraeli tanks with cope cagestelegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defencepopularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a45561784/israel-cope-cage-armortwz.com/israeli-merkava-tanks-get-improved-anti-drone-magnet-bomb-defensesKazakh army showing off a tank with a cope cageyoutube.com/watch?v=-yD5qiekgAYThe image of the Libyan Humveetaskandpurpose.com/news/libya-technical-humvee-90mm-cannonDrone hunting teams:economist.com/1843/2024/01/15/on-patrol-with-the-ukrainian-armys-drone-huntersDrone cages around buildings:reuters.com/world/europe/russias-bashneft-protects-refineries-with-anti-drone-nets-ria-says-2024-04-19ERA memereddit.com/r/Military/comments/12aqfwi/ukrainian_explosive_reactive_armour_on_leopard_2Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:50 — What Am I Talking About?00:01:25 — Modifications & Motives00:16:48 — Protection00:19:21 — Spaced Armour & Cope Cages00:33:06 — Other Adopters?00:40:51 — Extreme Evolutions00:48:14 — Protection - Reactive Armour00:54:46 — Protection - Improvised01:01:45 — Channel Update
The Race to Claim the Arctic - Claims, Icebreakers & Competition in the Far North Perun 2024-05-05 | The Arctic is pretty unique. It's a place where allies like the US and Canada feud, Russia is still arguably the dominant power and the United States can casually announce a claim to an area more than twice the size of California. But with access to Arctic resources as a draw - this unique setting is likely to see far more competition in the coming years. So let's chill a bit, and talk Arctic competition.Note a correction - In this presentation I refer to Norway handing over presidency of the Arctic Council to Russia in 2021. Norway currently holds the presidency, Russia received it from Iceland in 2021.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant reading (incomplete):Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelfun.org/depts/los/clcs_new/commission_purpose.htm#:~:text=The%20purpose%20of%20the%20Commission,nautical%20miles%20(M)%20from%20theAnnex 2un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/annex2.htmReporting on US 2023 claimsbloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-22/us-claims-huge-chunk-of-seabed-amid-strategic-push-for-resourcesCanada Arctic and Northern Policy Frameworkrcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1560523306861/1560523330587Canada Arctic National Strategysencanada.ca/Content/Sen/Committee/441/POFO/briefs/POFO_SS-1_Brief_ARF_e.pdfCanada launching fifth AOPSnavalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/halifax-shipyard-launches-canadas-fifth-arctic-and-offshore-patrol-shipUSGC Arctic Strategic Outlook and Strategic Outlook Implementation Planshttps://www.uscg.mil/Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategy_Book_APR_2019.pdfmedia.defense.gov/2023/Oct/25/2003327838/-1/-1/0/ARCTIC%20STRATEGIC%20OUTLOOK%20IMPLEMENTATION%20PLAN%20508%20COMPLIANT.PDFCRS - Changes in the Arcticsgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41153.pdfCRS - Strategic Competition in the Arctic (statement before the House Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security)crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/TE/TE10084/2Pre-invasion reporting on Russia's Project 10510 icebreakersnavalnews.com/naval-news/2020/05/russias-nuclear-powered-icebreaker-leader-to-become-operational-in-2027US national strategy for the Arcticwhitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdfCRS - Coast Guard PSC Programs3.documentcloud.org/documents/24364408/rl34391-6.pdfFeatured images of Arctic claims:sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-all-country-s-claims-on-the-arctic-seafloorRussia's ECS claimun.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/rus02_rev23/20230710ScRusRev2SumWeb.pdfCIA Icebreaker estimatescia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/icebreakersReporting on Project 22220 shipsnavalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/russian-first-serial-project-22220-nuclear-icebreaker-starts-sea-trialsFeatured report on ship needing rescue in the arcticbloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/luxury-ship-charging-33-000-a-person-awaits-rescue-in-greenland-s-arcticCanadian seafloor claimscbc.ca/news/canada/canada-to-file-arctic-seafloor-claim-this-week-1.2447166Featured image of platformmedium.com/una-nca-snapshots/the-melting-arctic-a-frontier-for-fossil-fuel-development-be27e98ae783Ice extent visualisationclimate.nasa.gov/news/3213/2022-arctic-summer-sea-ice-tied-for-10th-lowest-on-recordReporting on the 2019 speechnytimes.com/2019/05/06/climate/pompeo-arctic-china-russia.htmlcbc.ca/news/politics/pompeo-canada-russia-china-arctic-1.5125293thearcticinstitute.org/reaction-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-speech-rovaniemi-finland-arctic-council-ministerial-meetingDenmark claiming North Pole seafloor reporting (2014)npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/12/15/370980109/denmark-claims-part-of-the-arctic-including-the-north-poleCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.This video is not an authoritative description of international law, please consider seeking legal advice if it is relevant to you or decisions you make.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:09 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:08 — Welcome To The Arctic00:04:34 — How Do You Claim The Arctic? 00:12:01 — Why Do You Claim The Arctic? 00:17:26 — The Arctic States & Organisations00:22:25 — Claims And Disputes00:26:44 — Arctic Operations & Security00:32:32 — The Players & Assets00:46:09 — Russia, Breakers & Missed Chances01:01:41 — Channel Update
New American Military Aid for Ukraine - Whats in the package and what impact will it have? Perun 2024-04-28 | In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition. In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places. Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing:H.R.815 - Making emergency supplemental appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, and for other purposes.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815Estonian MoD: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeathttps://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdfIMF - Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility - Ukraineimf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/03/22/Ukraine-Third-Review-Under-the-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-546741US DoD on recent USAI and Ukraine Contact Group meetingdefense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3758274/2-year-anniversary-of-ukraine-defense-contact-group-comes-with-billions-in-new/#:~:text=The%20Ukraine%20Defense%20Contact%20Group%2C%20a%20coalition%20of%20about%2050,assistance%20to%20Ukraine%2C%20Austin%20said.Reporting on Ukraine's ATACMS usagetheguardian.com/world/2023/oct/17/ukraine-us-missiles-zelenskiyArticle on mentioned Kyiv spending protests:apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-protest-corruption-2b5520cd8b5112f4faa7d87105cf752enytimes.com/2023/12/22/world/europe/ukraine-spending-war-russia.html#:~:text=Braving%20rain%20and%20snow%2C%20hundreds,of%20a%20new%20subway%20depot.Featured demonstration of shifting US policy position on aid:reuters.com/world/us/us-quietly-shipped-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-2024-04-24reuters.com/world/europe/us-will-not-send-ukraine-rocket-systems-that-can-reach-russia-says-biden-2022-05-30Featured article reporting the Pentagon replacement deficitpolitico.com/news/2024/03/11/pentagon-weapons-ukraine-congress-00146287US Congress passing aid reuters.com/world/us/long-awaited-aid-ukraine-israel-taiwan-poised-pass-us-congress-2024-04-23voanews.com/a/us-house-passes-aid-package-for-ukraine-israel-after-months-of-struggle/7578232.htmlUK sending largest ever package to Ukrainetheguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/rishi-sunak-promises-uks-largest-ever-military-support-package-for-ukraineReporting on Russian offensiveapnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-avdiivka-c31eb7439d1983532a3f940061efe6e7apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-offensive-putin-8fce40ee08fdcc483f1d0fbe51c44bbeReporting on Russian budget passageapnews.com/article/russia-budget-duma-economy-ukraine-b0e31af0e5891b1dca079d4848e3cd2fFeatured article on Putin's war goals and expectationstheguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/putin-still-believes-he-can-win-in-ukraine-says-western-assessmentMacron warning Europe cannot rely on the USAhttps://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-europe-china-competition-protectionism-geopolitics/bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/macron-says-eu-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-for-its-securityUkraine needing $3B per month - (reporting, see IMF source for more detail)reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-3-bln-financial-aid-per-month-2024-kyiv-says-2024-02-28/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Feb%2028%20(Reuters),U.S.%20support%20begins%20to%20falter.Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay00:08:28 — What's In The Package00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic01:03:21 — Channel Update00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay00:08:28 — What's In The Package00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic01:03:21 — Channel Update
Irans Missile Strike on Israel - The attack, defence & Israels counter-strike Perun 2024-04-21 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunFor decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets. What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response. In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Readings and Sources:Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles – CSIS 2020missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Iranian-Missiles-Map-2020.jpgFeatured Washington Post piecewashingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/iran-israel-attack-drones-missilesCRS – Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programssgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdfBallistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm-2020.pdfGuardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quotetheguardian.com/world/2024/apr/15/how-will-israel-respond-iran-attack-warCSIS - missile threat profile on Emadmissilethreat.csis.org/missile/emadTweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UNtwitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053RUSI - Iran's failed offensive against Israelrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/pulling-punches-irans-failed-offensive-against-israelReporting on Israeli strike on Iranbbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68852522reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/israeli-missiles-hit-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan-reportnytimes.com/live/2024/04/20/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-newsnytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-newstheguardian.com/world/2024/apr/19/iranian-air-defence-systems-activated-israel-launches-strikes-visual-guideAnd Iranian warnings regarding ithttps://en.irna.ir/news/85444320/Israel-s-biggest-mistake-will-be-to-respond-to-Iran-s-retaliationIncluded IRGC statement on limited systems being usedhttps://t.me/Tasnimnews/295267Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” responsetehrantimes.com/news/497397/From-Strategic-Patience-to-Active-DeterrenceFeatured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issuesreuters.com/world/middle-east/any-air-war-israels-defences-would-trump-irans-high-cost-2024-04-18reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks-2024-04-14businessinsider.com/iran-destroyed-mock-israeli-jet-base-missiles-before-airfield-attack-2024-4bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68811273timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usualcsis.org/analysis/iran-israel-air-conflict-one-weektheguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/how-irans-attack-on-israel-was-stoppedtheintercept.com/2024/04/15/iran-attack-israel-drones-missilesReporting on types of Iranian missiles usedscmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3259167/iran-publishes-details-missiles-and-drones-used-israel-attackDenial of Dimona targetingtehrantimes.com/news/497310/Iran-says-claims-of-damage-to-Dimona-nuclear-facility-is-a-psychologicalhttps://en.irna.ir/news/85449489/IRGC-spokesman-Claim-on-Dimona-power-plant-being-damaged-inSuleimani strike reporting (2020)theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensionsIran's 2020 missile strikes on US basestheguardian.com/global/video/2020/jan/08/iran-releases-footage-of-missile-attack-on-us-airbases-in-iraq-videoTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About?00:03:12 — Caveats00:03:50 — The Syria Strike00:05:56 — The Attacks00:21:19 — Purpose & Result00:29:36 — Estimates & Costing00:34:32 — Winners and Losers?00:38:54 — Retaliation Options 00:50:55 — The Conflict Continuum01:00:00 — What Now?01:00:41 — Channel Update
Rebuilding US Arms Production - Can a new Strategy Restore the Arsenal of Democracy? Perun 2024-04-14 | During many major conflicts of the 20th century, the ability of the USA to pump out enormous amounts of defence materiel was a critical factor. In the lead up to WW2 the US would declare itself the 'arsenal of democracy' But with the end of the Cold War came reductions and consolidation - and after the events of early 2022 the US, like many other nations, found itself eager to re-expand its defence industries to meet the demands of the war in Ukraine and changing global security environment. That provided the context for the release of a defence industry strategy this year -- and today, we're going to talk about it.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.This is obviously very much not financial advice.Many images on slides are included only for illustrative, comedic or aesthetic purposes and should not be assumed to be related to the corresponding text or audio.Readings and Sources:2023 National Defense Industrial Strategy:businessdefense.gov/docs/ndis/2023-NDIS.pdfAnnual Industrial Capabilities Reports 2021-2016 2021 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/FY2021-Industrial-Capabilities-Report-to-Congress.pdf2020 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/USA002573-20_ICR_2020_Web.pdf2019 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/USA000954-20_RPT_Subj_FY19_ICR_07092020.pdf2018 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2018_AIC_RTC_05-23-2019-Public_Release.pdf2017 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2017_AIC_RTC_05-17-2018-Public_Release.pdf2016 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2016_AIC_RTC_06-27-17-Public_Release.pdfAssessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency (2018)media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND-DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDFCRS on the US Defense Industrial Base:crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47751US DoD Small Business Strategymedia.defense.gov/2023/Jan/26/2003150429/-1/-1/0/SMALL-BUSINESS-STRATEGY.PDFDefense News reporting on Patriot PAC-3 production figuresdefensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/#:~:text=Lockheed%20was%20building%20350%20MSE,Camden%2C%20Arkansas%2C%20production%20line.Reporting source on production rate of 12 Patriot fire units per yeardefensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-patriot-proved-itself-in-ukraine-and-secured-a-fresh-futureReporting on call for a third US nuclear shipyardnews.usni.org/2023/10/12/congressional-commission-calls-for-third-nuclear-shipyard-to-bolster-u-s-strategic-forcesUS missile production - Arkansasdefensenews.com/industry/2023/03/21/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-driving-growth-in-arkansasarkansasonline.com/news/2022/oct/05/defense-plant-at-camden-growingMentioned Xinhua articlehttps://english.news.cn/20240228/4b04b67081724ed59cc5f837c7ec38ba/c.htmlhttps://english.news.cn/20240228/4b04b67081724ed59cc5f837c7ec38ba/c.htmlUS arms hitting record high in 2023reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-arms-exports-hit-record-high-fiscal-2023-2024-01-29Source for featured shipyard worker imagenews.usni.org/2016/04/06/navsea-on-road-to-recovery-to-rebuilding-naval-shipyard-workforceUS Navy Secretary on ROK shipbuilding capacitybusinessinsider.com/us-navy-secretary-floored-by-ally-south-koreas-shipbuilding-2024-4FRCSW Apprenticeship programhttps://frcsw.navair.navy.mil/Public-Affairs-Office/News/Article/2613532/frcsw-apprenticeship-program-offers-artisan-career-path/https://www.swccd.edu/programs-and-academics/specialty-programs/southwest-regional-apprenticeship-program.aspxReporting on US manufacturing jobs axios.com/2023/08/21/manufacturing-job-boom-semiconductor-renewable-energybloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/us-manufacturers-to-temper-investment-pace-after-vibrant-2023nam.org/manufacturing-in-the-united-states/facts-about-manufacturing-expandedbloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-02/stronger-us-factory-payrolls-hint-manufacturing-turning-cornerTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:21 — The Peace Dividend00:06:58 — Towards Strategy00:10:12 — Resilient Supply Chains00:26:17 — Workforce Readiness00:36:25 — Flexible Acquisition00:46:09 — Signs Of Progress00:51:05 — Geopolitical Significance 01:03:19 — Channel Update
Drone Technology in Ukraine - Automation, Lethality & The (Scary) Development Race Perun 2024-04-07 | Drones have been a major feature of the fighting in Ukraine since well before the 2022 invasion - but they have been set apart from other major systems by just how quickly the technology and tactics behind them have evolved. In this episode, I look at why drones in Ukraine are becoming more dangerous, at the same time as they are becoming much, much more common. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.I also note that while I describe 10km as a long range for an FPV strike - this is from the point of view of the war as a whole. And FPV strikes significantly beyond the 10km mark have been reported and claimed. Readings and Sources (temporarily shortened list as I am in transit):Institute for Science and International Security report on Lancet-3isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/russian-lancet-3-kamikaze-drone-filled-with-foreign-parts Lushenko, Paul (LTC, PhD) - The Cult of the Drone: At the two-year mark, UAVs have changed the face of war in Ukraine – but not outcomestheconversation.com/cult-of-the-drone-at-the-two-year-mark-uavs-have-changed-the-face-of-war-in-ukraine-but-not-outcomes-221397Illustrative report on COTS sourcing of thermal droneshttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-receives-300-mavic-3t-drones/Reporting on Russian use of Repeater droneshttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-increase-the-range-and-stability-of-fpv-drones/Reporting on Ukraine producing flight controllersforbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/15/ukraine-makes-drone-flight-controllers-breaking-free-of-china/?sh=5edb156a319eS J Freedberg Jr - The Revolution That Wasn't: how AI drones have fizzled in Ukraine (so far)breakingdefense.com/2024/02/the-revolution-that-wasnt-how-ai-drones-have-fizzled-in-ukraine-so-farReporting on Lancet and its autonomy:forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/03/01/russian-kamikaze-drone-now-seems-to-identify-its-own-targets/?sh=3dcc52b54b89forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/14/it-looks-like-russias-automated-killer-drones-did-not-work-as-planned/?sh=73498094785eReporting on FPV production:https://mil.in.ua/en/news/diy-drones-for-defense-ukrainians-gain-expertise-in-assembling-fpv-drones/#google_vignette bbc.com/news/technology-65389215https://mil.in.ua/en/news/since-the-beginning-of-2024-ukraine-has-produced-about-200-thousand-fpv-drones/kyivindependent.com/fedorov-ukraine-to-produce-1-million-drones-per-yearFeatured image of Lancet attack on UA MiG-29forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/19/russias-tiny-drones-are-now-flying-far-enough-to-blow-up-ukrainian-migs-at-their-bases/?sh=28c529d0f9e3Image source for UA troops setting up antennatheguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2023/nov/07/21st-century-trench-warfare-ukrainian-frontline-in-picturesFeatured article on refinery strikesreuters.com/business/energy/russian-refineries-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2024-03-25And the improvised aircraft drone striketwz.com/news-features/russias-shahed-136-factory-attacked-by-light-plane-converted-into-a-droneThat NZ supermarket meal planning AI I mentioned:theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/pak-n-save-savey-meal-bot-ai-app-malfunction-recipesTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:40 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:11 — Caveats And Content00:01:55 — The New Drone Ecosystem00:05:00 — The Drones Get Better00:06:26 — Sensors And Night Ops00:10:43 — Range And The Value Of Reach00:19:20 — Targeting & AI00:27:38 — Lethality00:39:44 — Countermeasures00:48:43 — Production00:57:47 — Implications And Projections01:10:58 — Channel Update
Global Arms Exports - Winners, losers & trends in the race to rearm Perun 2024-03-31 | Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share.Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.Patreon: patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats, Comments and Corrections: At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending - they are in fact from an IISS publicationAll normal caveats and disclaimers apply. I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations. Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports:youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI Readings and Sources: Arms transfer data primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methodsCover image from:nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023US FY 2023 Arms Transfers – US Department of Statestate.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-tradeUS DSCA – Poland JASSM Purchasehttps://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-agm-158b-2-joint-air-surface-standoff-missile-extended-rangeFeatured Rheinmetall statements and reportsrheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholzrheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/03/2024-03-14-rheinmetall-financial-figures-2023Reporting on Swiss policyrferl.org/a/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.htmldw.com/en/ukraine-updates-swiss-envoy-defends-ban-on-ammo-exports/a-65416234reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03Increase in NATO defence spendinghttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htmIncrease in global defence spendingtheguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/global-defence-spending-rises-9-per-cent-to-record-22tn-dollarsReporting on Indian S-400snationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-aims-to-deliver-two-s-400-air-defence-units-by-2024-end-as-payment-woes-ease-up/articleshow/103072429.cms?from=mdrtimesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/putins-war-delays-delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron/articleshow/90867785.cmsReporting on refinery strikesbloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-saysStockpilingreuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19Reporting on contract lossesairandspaceforces.com/northrop-grumman-1-56-billion-loss-b-21Featured image on Red Sea operationsreuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-bulk-carrier-number-us-war-destroyers-red-sea-2024-03-09US interest in RoK shipbuilders breakingdefense.com/2024/02/in-south-korea-del-toro-courts-major-shipbuilders-to-set-up-shop-in-usRoK Arms Deliveriesjapantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/16/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-factoryjanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-army-orders-100-additional-k9-howitzersnavaltoday.com/2020/05/19/philippine-navys-first-2600-ton-frigate-delivered-sets-sail-for-the-philippinesdefensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/09/poland-south-korea-wrangle-over-big-ticket-weapons-financingbreakingdefense.com/2023/03/can-germanys-big-cats-resist-south-koreas-black-panther-invasiondefensenews.com/air/2024/02/02/south-korea-to-start-mass-production-of-kf-21-fighter-jetsDelivery of Italian built FREMMnavalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/first-italian-built-fremm-delivered-to-egypt-reaches-alexandriaJF-17airforce-technology.com/news/nigerian-air-force-inducts-three-jf-17-thunder-multirole-aircraftUSN supplier bottlenecks (featuring mk48)defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpilesTurkish Exportsdefensenews.com/industry/2024/01/08/turkeys-defense-aerospace-exports-rose-by-25-last-yearTimestamps00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard00:06:57 — The Market Shifts00:07:58 — The USA00:13:42 — Europe00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers? 00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes01:04:56 — Channel Update
Defence Strategy: The Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & NATOs Eastern Flank Perun 2024-03-24 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunDesigning a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank.Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation.. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.At one point I quote a source saying Estonia has 56 howitzers, the correct total of 18 and 36 is 54Readings and Sources (incomplete, to be filled out):Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel figures are usually as per Military Balance 2024Reference for corruption perception index data is transparency international, e.g.:transparency.org/en/countries/estoniaThe State Defence Concept of Latvia 2023https://www.mod.gov.lv/sites/mod/files/document/The%20State%20Defence%20Concept%202023-2027.pdfEstonia Defence Forces Annual Report 2022issuu.com/sodur/docs/annual_report_22_issuuEstonian Ministry of Defence - Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeathttps://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdfPerun - Defence strategy for small nationsyoutube.com/watch?v=EVqGEtPj0M0CRS: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania: Background and U.S.-Baltic Relationscrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46139Shiapak & Johnson - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern FlankWargaming the Defense of the Balticsrand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.htmlJonathan Masters - How NATO will change if Finland and Sweden become memberscfr.org/in-brief/how-nato-will-change-if-finland-and-sweden-become-membersReporting on Lithuania's defence spending plansreuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-pledges-spend-least-3-gdp-defence-2024-03-21Estonia's foreign minister warns the Baltics have 3-4 years to prepare for a Russian test of NATOapnews.com/article/poland-estonia-russia-nato-putin-bf0bc50554182f9c9bd5ea9b1a5cf2efNATO navies hold Baltic Sea exercisehttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_218241.htm?selectedLocale=enHenri Vanhanen - NATO and Northern Europe: No Longer the Forgotten Flankcarnegieendowment.org/2023/12/19/nato-and-northern-europe-no-longer-forgotten-flank-pub-91297Featured Reuters report on Baltics seeking more NATO presencereuters.com/world/europe/baltic-states-want-more-nato-they-wont-get-all-they-seek-2022-06-15Featured report on Danish artillery donationskyivindependent.com/denmark-to-donate-all-its-artillery-to-ukraine-says-pmReporting on Estonian artillery donationsthedefensepost.com/2023/01/24/estonia-sending-howitzers-ukrainerferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-artillery-zaporizhzhya-155mm-howitzer-estonia-american/32199208.htmlBaltic and Polish leaders visiting Ukraine April 2022reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-poland-president/visiting-kyiv-leaders-of-poland-and-baltic-states-condemn-russia-idUKKCN2M50GChttps://www.president.pl/news/presidents-of-poland-baltic-states-visit-kyiv,52353Source of image used for slide on Estonia's concerns about protracted Russian occupationswarajyamag.com/world/estonia-pm-kaja-kallas-estonia-would-be-wiped-from-map-under-existing-nato-security-plan-for-baltic-statesFeatured article on Czech-led ammunition supply effortsdefensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/20/czech-led-bulk-ammunition-buy-for-ukraine-picks-up-steamTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About?00:03:22 — History00:13:57 — Strategic Position00:20:06 — Perceived Threats & Objectives00:34:10 — Armed Forces & Approach00:43:14 — Collective Defence00:54:33 — Finland & Closing The Door On The Baltic Option00:58:25 — The Baltic States And Ukraine01:04:19 — Channel Update
The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian Exports Perun 2024-03-17 | For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.Readings and Sources:Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the sourcesipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methodsBronk, J - The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Forcerusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-forceCranny Evans, S - Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovationsrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovationsMBDA order and delivery figuresbreakingdefense.com/2024/03/dassault-thales-mbda-bank-extraordinary-2023-sales-with-more-projectedCover image from:cnbc.com/2022/09/25/winters-approach-sets-the-clock-ticking-for-ukraine-and-russia.htmlKuwait receiving upgraded Abramsjanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/kuwait-receives-first-m1a2k-tankReporting on France becoming the number 2 exporterhttps://www.politico.eu/article/france-overtake-russia-world-weapons-exporter/#:~:text=RUSSIA'S%20FALL%20AND%20FRANCE'S%20RISE,major%20arms%20from%202019%2D23.france24.com/en/europe/20230802-france-may-soon-overtake-russia-as-the-world-s-no-2-arms-exporterCRS - Russian Arms Sales and Defense Industry crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46937#:~:text=Despite%20its%20global%20presence%2C%20Russia,of%20Russian%20arms%20since%202016.Russian media on Indian Su-30 programhttps://sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.htmlCSIS - Sellers Remorse: The Challenges Facing Russia's Arms Exportscsis.org/analysis/sellers-remorse-challenges-facing-russias-arms-exportsRussia delivers third S-400 system to Indiajanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russia-delivers-third-s-400-system-to-india#:~:text=India%20signed%20a%20USD5.,by%20the%20end%20of%202023.RAND - is Su-75 a case of vapor marketing?rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/01/is-russias-su-75-checkmate-aircraft-a-case-of-vapor.htmlReporting on claimed Russian buybacks from Myanmarasia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Russia-buying-back-arms-parts-exported-to-Myanmar-and-India?s=08General Reporting on Russian production outputtass.com/defense/1526773theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners#img-5Russian-Iranian cooperationreuters.com/world/russia-iran-ties-have-reached-new-level-russian-defence-minister-2023-09-20Russian Reporting on prospects of Su-35 production in PRCtass.com/russia/816393US weapon orders surgepolitico.com/news/2024/01/29/us-foreign-arms-sales-russia-china-00138390US to sell F-35 to Greecebloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-27/us-to-sell-40-f-35-fighter-jets-to-greece-gift-other-aircraft'Reporting on Singapore getting its German Type 218SGsdefensenews.com/naval/2023/07/21/singapores-navy-receives-first-of-four-new-german-built-submarinesFrance SPG productionhttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-will-produce-dozens-of-caesar-acs-for-ukraine/Russia not exporting lancets due to domestic demandreuters.com/world/europe/russia-not-exporting-lancet-drones-domestic-demand-high-tass-2023-11-15/#:~:text=%22The%20Lancet%20is%20also%20receiving,no%20export%20permit%20documentation%20yet.Timestamps:00:00 — Opening Words 01:18 — What Am I Talking About? 02:00 — Caveats & Notes 02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse 14:57 — What is Driving the Decline? 27:15 — Filling the Void? 35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter 45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector? 55:15 — Channel Update
US Navy Procurement Disasters - The Littoral Combat Ship and Zumwalt Class Destroyer Perun 2024-03-10 | For decades, the US Navy has been the world's most powerful ocean going force. It operates some of the most successful warship designs in recent history.It also operates some with more...complex...stories.In this episode we look at US efforts to develop a new generation of surface warships, including the LCS and Zumwalt Destroyers, and ask both what went wrong with these incredibly expensive projects and what we might be able to learn from them.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyIn particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.In keeping with the above, nothing in this presentation should be taken to be an allegation of wrongdoing or any particular act or inaction by any individual or entity.Sources have not been validated.Readings and Sources:US DOD - Selected Acquisition Report on LCS Mission Moduleshttps://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_MM_SAR_2021.pdfvUS DOD - Selected Acquisition Report - Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_SAR_2021.pdfLCS Mission Modules Program - CAPT Gus Weekes Program https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Portals/103/Documents/Exhibits/SAS2021/SAS2021-LittoralCombatShipMissionModules.pdfCAPT Robert Powers (USN Retired) - Birth of the Littoral Combat Shipusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012/september/birth-littoral-combat-shipQuadrennial Defence Review - 2001history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/quadrennial/QDR2001.pdf?ver=AFts7axkH2zWUHncRd8yUg%3d%3dCRS - Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Programcrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33741/257Navy DD(X) Destroyer Program: Background and Issues for Congress (2004)https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA472596.pdfCRS - Navy DDG-51 and DDG-1000 Destroyer Programssgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32109.pdfCBO - The Cost of the Navy's New Frigate (features LCS lead ship cost graph)cbo.gov/publication/56675House Armed Services Committee - Projection forces subcommittee - 19 July 2005 commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has200300.000/has200300_0f.htmLCS breaking down on deploymentdefensenews.com/naval/2020/10/28/another-littoral-combat-breaks-down-on-deploymentthediplomat.com/2016/08/dropping-like-flies-third-us-navy-littoral-combat-ship-out-of-actionAGS being placed in storagenavalnews.com/naval-news/2023/05/us-navy-discloses-155mm-advanced-gun-systems-preliminary-fate/vAGS Roundsnews.usni.org/2016/11/07/navy-planning-not-buying-lrlap-roundsReporting on Zumwaltdefensenews.com/naval/2021/03/25/what-should-become-of-the-zumwalt-class-the-us-navy-has-some-big-ideasLCS Decommissioningnews.usni.org/2023/09/27/navy-to-decommission-littoral-combat-ships-uss-little-rock-uss-detroit-this-weeknavalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/us-navy-commissions-one-lcs-decommissions-twoUS navy requests to decommission ships earlydefensenews.com/naval/2023/03/13/why-the-us-navy-wants-to-retire-eight-ships-earlyUSN Considers non LCS options for MCM shipsdefensenews.com/naval/2023/01/10/navy-considers-non-lcs-option-for-mine-countermeasures-in-5th-fleetLieutenant Commander Steven Wills (USN Retired) - Why the LCS has been slow to deployusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2019/august/why-lcs-has-been-slow-deploySC-21 program page (archived)web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/http://sc21.crane.navy.mil Featured report on LCS and the Red Seatelegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/01/25/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-lcs-combat-ship-middle-eastLCS Middle East Deploymentsnews.usni.org/2023/01/11/navy-wants-independence-lcs-in-bahrain-for-mine-countermeasure-missionDDG(X) Design Contract Reportingnaval-technology.com/news/us-dod-renews-ddgx-design-contract-as-delivery-time-lengthensLCS MCM package reportingnews.usni.org/2023/05/12/navy-talks-details-on-lcs-mine-countermeaures-mission-packageEmma Salisbury - Lessons from the Littoral Combat Shipwarontherocks.com/2021/11/lessons-from-the-littoral-combat-shipTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening 00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:58 — Evolution of The US Navy 00:07:15 — LCS - The Beginning 00:15:29 — LCS - The Issues 00:23:10 — LCS - Lessons 00:34:59 — LCS - The Redemption 00:39:28 — DD(X) - The Beginning 00:46:02 — DD(X) - Lessons 00:50:55 — DD(X) - Redemption 00:56:15 — Reflection 01:05:47 — Update
The Ukraine War in 2024 - The Military and Economic Balance of the Long War Perun 2024-03-03 | It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it. But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing:Ukraine territory control maps generated using deepstatemap.liveCovert Cabal on Russian artillery storages:youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2ZhpwPrevious videos referred to:Russian Defence Production: youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgsHow Wars End: youtu.be/PnvJzup8i-cPolitical Endurance: youtu.be/pIKiFAKMoi0Commodity pricing graphs generated using tradingeconomics.comEstonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat:https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdfDr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024Sam Cranny-Evansrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovationsDr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles – The Russian Way of Warhttps://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdfFeatured and example reporting on covered issues:Medvedev and Russian wargoals:cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russia-signals-it-could-try-to-seize-kyiv-again-at-some-point.htmlhttps://ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928899095.html?in=lkyivindependent.com/medvedev-russia-will-take-more-regions-of-ukraineRussian Defence Production:theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-plannersPutin on Wargoals in 2024aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/14/russias-goals-in-ukraine-unchanged-putin-says#:~:text=Fielding%20questions%20from%20the%20public,invaded%20Ukraine%20in%20February%202022.Russia/Ukraine has already won/lost and/or can't win/lose:https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/nytimes.com/2024/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.htmltime.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-dangeraljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/hungarys-orban-says-poor-ukrainians-cannot-win-the-warRussian Macron 'not ruling out' troops being sent to Ukrainereuters.com/world/europe/paris-conference-belie-doom-gloom-ukraine-elysee-says-2024-02-25Sweden joining NATObbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdle-2024-02-26Defence Production & the 800,000 rounds of Petr Pavel:kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-ban-on-ammunition-exports/#:~:text=%22All%20contracts%20for%20the%20export,the%20purpose%20of%20defending%20Europe.%22https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/1/7444611/Morozov & Avdiivkatheguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/pro-war-russian-blogger-who-revealed-huge-avdiivka-losses-dies-by-suicideCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:48 — The Phases Of War00:05:24 — Battlefield Trends And Adaptations00:10:15 — Objectives And "Winning"00:16:27 — Economics00:25:18 — Production00:40:52 — Losses And Pipelines00:53:06 — Force Quality And Issues01:00:08 — Reflecting & Projecting01:02:48 — Channel Update
The Ukraine Air-War in 2024 - Interviewing Professor Justin Bronk Perun 2024-02-25 | While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment. Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below. Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing (partial as travelling without full access to my research notes):RUSI Biography – Justin Bronkrusi.org/people/bronkRUSI – Bronk, Reynolds & Watling (2022) – The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defencestatic.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdfRUSI - Bronk (2022) - The mysterious case of the missing Russian air forcerusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force#:~:text=On%20the%20fifth%20day%20of,its%20fixed%20wing%20combat%20aircraft.RUSI - Bronk (2020) - Russian and Chinese air combat trendsstatic.rusi.org/russian_and_chinese_combat_air_trends_whr_final_web_version.pdfRUSI - Watling and Reynolds (2024) - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024Featured A-10 articlereuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12The described A-10 meme (not fully accurate it must be said)…reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/n11iy8/a10_fanboys_be_like_ignore_the_f14dFeatured article on F-16 traininghttps://www.politico.eu/article/europe-open-f16-training-center-ukraine-pilot/MiG-31 accidentbusinessinsider.com/videos-russian-mig-combat-jet-burst-flames-before-crashing-lake-2023-4Example of how widely reporting on Russian FF claims spread:newsweek.com/russia-air-defense-threat-putin-air-force-50-1861117Featured image of PAC-3 manufacturingtalkbusiness.net/2020/05/more-patriot-missiles-to-be-produced-in-camdenCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own – and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:58 — What Are We Talking About? 00:01:43 — Prof. Justin Bronk00:02:08 — The Evolving Air War00:05:14 — The GBAD Transition00:08:18 — KIT Systems00:12:38 — Patriot Ambush Tactics00:18:12 — Friendly Fire And The A-5000:25:15 — A-1000:29:39 — Sustainability00:59:48 — Closing Thoughts & The US Role01:01:28 — An Open Mic On Risks And Issues01:07:50 — Creativity & Material Limits01:09:42 — Channel Update
Laser and Microwave Weapons - Directed-Energy Weapon Programs, Potential, and Issues Perun 2024-02-19 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunWhile technology has continued to evolve, most weapon systems modern militaries use operate on old principles. A artillery piece is a world removed from a Napoleonic cannon, but the idea of detonating a charge behind a projectile in a tube in order to propel it in the direction of something you don't like - that remains the same.For decades, Governments have also been investing in trying to develop systems that operate in very different ways - including directed energy weapons like lasers and High Powered Microwave weapons (HPM). And for decades - very little emerged in terms of deployable, destructive systems.But on a battlefield increasingly dominated by cheap and precise threats such as loitering munitions, FPV drones or naval kamikaze drones, there is more pressure than ever for forces to leverage recent technological developments to turn concepts into functional, deployable tools for their armed forces. In this episode, we look at the concepts behind Directed Energy Weapons, ask what advantages and disadvantages they might have compared to more conventional equivalents, and what how militaries might use them going forward.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.I have also not sought to provide a fulsome explanation of the science behind the operation of HEL and HPM systems. For those interested, I would strongly recommend further reading and I will include some potential sources in the source list below. Relevant Reading (to added 20/02/2024 once I have access to my research notes and materials again)Timestamps:00:00:00 — Intro00:01:10 — What Am I Talking About? 00:12:27 — The Directed Energy Promise00:17:42 — Ground Applications00:25:48 — Naval Applications00:40:51 — Aerospace Applications00:47:00 — Countermeasures and limitations01:02:10 — Development challenges and risks01:06:43 — Channel Update
Chinese Military Capabilities - Strategy, Technology & The Changing PLA Perun 2024-02-11 | The modernisation of the Chinese PLA has represented a dramatic shift in the balance of military power in Asia.Over the course of several decades, the PLA has shifted from a primarily ground combat force with a large stock of outdated equipment, to one that is increasingly capable of projecting power and holding targets at risk over longer and longer distances.Having discussed the PRC's military budget, industry, rocket force and other critical drivers, today I finally want to give an overview of the PLA's changing capabilities and ask the question - what kind of force has China's modernisation process created, and how may it continue to evolve going forward?Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing China's National Defence in a New Era (2019)https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.htmlUS DOD - Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2023media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDFThe PLA Strategic Support Force: Future-proofing China's Military - Cosmo Caohttps://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-pla-strategic-support-force-future-proofing-chinas-military/China's Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era - Costello & McReynolds, National Defence Universityhttps://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/china-perspectives_13.pdfRussian and Chinese Combat Air Trends: Current Capabilities and Future Threat Outlook - Bronk (2020)rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/whitehall-reports/russian-and-chinese-combat-air-trends-current-capabilities-and-future-threat-outlookCRS-- China's military, the PLA - 2021crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46808China Naval Modernisation: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities - Background and Issue for Congresssgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdfThe Chinese Military Speaks to Itself, Revealing Doubts - Dennis Blaskowarontherocks.com/2019/02/the-chinese-military-speaks-to-itself-revealing-doubtsChina Expanding YY-20 fleetjanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/china-expanding-yy-20-aerial-refueller-fleetThe Creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force and its Implications for Chinese Military Space Operations - Pollpeter, Chase & Heginbotham (2017)rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2058.htmlThe U.S. China Military Scorecard - RAND - 2017rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.htmlLearning Warfare from the Laboratory - China's progression in wargaming and opposing force training - Kania, Burns & Caslinunderstandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Learning%20Warfare%20from%20the%20Laboratory%20ISW%20September%202021%20Report.pdfMentioned reporting of Chinese Type 99 usage during wargaminghttp://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/WeaponryEquipment/News_209182/9409397.html2007 Reporting on ASAT testtheguardian.com/science/2007/jan/23/spaceexploration.chinaType 59 image (2018)http://eng.mod.gov.cn/focus/2018-03/16/content_4806946_3.htmJ-16 EW Versionjanes.com/defence-news/news-detail/airshow-china-2021-chinese-air-force-unveils-ew-variant-of-j-16-multirole-fighter-aircraftPLA Operational Concepts - Burke, rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA300/RRA394-1/RAND_RRA394-1.pdfFeatured Economist articleeconomist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/xi-jinping-worries-that-chinas-troops-are-not-ready-to-fightCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Featured Image of multinational exercisesthediplomat.com/2016/05/us-japan-south-korea-plan-missile-defense-exercise-on-rimpac-2016-sidelinesTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:00 — Strategy And Strategic Environment00:13:11 — The Forces00:13:35 — The Strategic Support Force00:17:59 — The Space Systems Department00:18:49 — Network Systems Department00:21:10 — PLA Ground Forces00:27:51 — PLAAF (Air Force)00:36:15 — PLAN (Navy)00:49:22 — The Rocket Force00:53:09 — Shortfalls, Trends & Perspectives01:05:48 — Channel Update
The Race for Next Generation Air-to-Air Missiles: Range, Sensors & Future Air Dominance Perun 2024-02-04 | When we talk about the future of competition for air-superiority, often we focus on the most high-profile platform - the current and future generation fighter aircraft. With cutting edge sensors and systems, new generation fighters are likely to give their pilots access to a level of information and performance beyond what even current fifth generation platforms can offer. But situational awareness doesn't have the same value if it can't be connected to a weapon system capable enough to leverage it - which the air-to-air missile comes in.In the past decade, multiple nations have fielded new missiles that challenge or eclipse existing US missiles like the AIM-120. In this episode we're going to look at some of those systems, ask how the US fell behind in the range game, and ask what the plan might be to equip the USAF with tools to reclaim its previous advantage in the air.Note, this video is a continuation of the series on next-generation air combat, including:The Race for 6th Generation Fighters:youtu.be/RPrWm6fWuaMThe Race for Air Combat Drones:youtu.be/1-0L5Wv86fQAMRAAM Dtwz.com/43483/latest-amraam-air-to-air-missile-aims-to-keep-pace-with-chinaAIM-260 Reportingiiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2019/10/aim-260-missile-us-air-forcedefenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/will-americas-next-long-range-air-air-missile-match-chinas/160771Cancellation of past potential AMRAAM replacementflightglobal.com/usaf-cancels-amraam-replacement/104054.articlePatreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Notes or Reading (more to be added:US Senate armed services committee transcript - Tuesday, May 2, 2023armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/23-41_05-02-2023.pdfProfessor Justin Bronk - Russian and Chinese Combat Air Trends: Current Capabilities and Future Threat Outlookrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/whitehall-reports/russian-and-chinese-combat-air-trends-current-capabilities-and-future-threat-outlookProfessor Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Dr Jack Watling - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdfRTX featuring the Peregrine on their web pagertx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/air/air-to-air-missiles/air-to-air-missilesReporting on 2020 AFRL solicitation in relation to long range AAM technologiesairandspaceforces.com/air-force-seeking-faster-longer-range-air-to-air-missilesReporting on next generation missile systems:twz.com/45057/the-air-force-plans-to-test-launch-a-mystery-new-air-to-air-missiletwz.com/classified-aim-260-air-to-air-missiles-to-arm-future-air-force-dronesairandspaceforces.com/jatm-start-production-collaborative-combat-aircraftbreakingdefense.com/2019/09/raytheons-new-peregrine-missile-smaller-faster-more-maneuverableairandspaceforces.com/article/fifth-generation-weaponsCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.twz.com/15692/the-pentagon-is-quietly-developing-an-next-generation-long-range-air-to-air-missileTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:56 — History & The Missile Evolution00:06:38 — The Future Air War Concept00:17:41 — What Makes A Good Missile? 00:26:42 — The US Inventory00:30:10 — Russia00:36:03 — PRC00:44:58 — European Competitors00:51:05 — And Before We Get To The USA00:52:28 — The New Programs01:00:59 — Bringing This Together01:04:21 — Channel Update
Russias Winter Offensive & The War in Ukraine - The Initiative, losses, & air, sea & land campaigns Perun 2024-01-28 | Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. .Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front. In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing Putin on intention to achieve all military goalstass.com/politics/1723935theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/19/zelenskiy-and-putin-each-vow-to-press-on-to-victory-in-ukraine-warCredit to @naalsio26 for localising visually confirmed lossesRussian military size increasesreuters.com/world/europe/russia-increases-maximum-size-armed-forces-by-170000-servicemen-2023-12-01reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-increase-size-russian-armed-forces-2022-08-25Shoigu giving Shoigu numberstass.com/defense/1723781Putin giving Putin numberskyivindependent.com/putin-claims-500-000-new-recruits-in-russian-army-over-last-six-monthsThe lostarmor site referenced for loss analysislostarmour.info/minusov-netThe Bradley engagement mentionedtelegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-disabled-russian-tankthedrive.com/the-war-zone/video-games-helped-ukrainian-bradley-gunner-win-duel-with-russian-t-90m-tankUkraine Su-34 claimbbc.com/news/world-europe-67809239Jan 24 missile attacksaljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/ukraine-says-russia-launched-barrage-of-missile-attacks-nationwideDecember 23 missile attacksapnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-aerial-attack-missiles-drones-fe3fb596cdea0035573a6a677f17070cDPRK shipments to Russiajapantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/11/world/politics/north-korea-missiles-russia-seoulFeatured image of Koalitsiyadefence-blog.com/russia-deploys-its-new-152mm-self-propelled-gun-to-ukraineJamestown foundation on Russian military recruitmentjamestown.org/program/russias-crisis-of-restoring-manpowerExample of volunteer units signing contractsthemoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/20-russian-volunteer-units-sign-military-contracts-defense-ministry-a81588Reference to UA casualty estimatesreuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12Ropucha getting hitnavalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/ukraine-strikes-russias-project-775-large-landing-ship-in-crimeaUkraine drone strikesreuters.com/world/fire-erupts-russias-novatek-baltic-sea-terminal-after-explosions-heard-2024-01-21aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/24/drones-strike-deep-in-russia-as-medvedev-threatens-ukraines-existencereuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-hit-rosneft-refinery-russia-source-2024-01-25/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Jan%2025%20(Reuters),Ukrainian%20source%20said%20on%20Thursday.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-russian-oil-depot-ukrainian-drone-attack-klintsyReporting on UA EWbusinessinsider.com/ukraine-hit-turning-point-electronic-warfare-capabilities-isw-russia-missiles-2024-1Reporting on possible incursion into Polish airspacetheguardian.com/world/2023/dec/29/russia-launches-huge-wave-missile-strikes-ukraineCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:47 — What Am I Talking About? 00:01:20 — The Winter Offensives00:10:10 — Equipment Losses00:20:27 — Adaptations And Observations00:27:17 — The Black Sea Theatre00:33:25 — The Air War00:50:18 — Manpower And Mobilisation01:01:39 — Notes On Resupply01:06:37 — Conclusion01:07:08 — Channel Update
Chinese Military Corruption & Readiness - The Rocket Force, Purges & PLA Readiness Perun 2024-01-21 | Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunEarlier this month, Bloomberg carried an article which included claims about corruption in the PRC's Rocket Force .Those claims have gotten plenty of attention – so today, I want to look into corruption and anti-corruption campaigns in the PRC, some of the claims from the article, how we might interpret them, and what all this might mean for the PLA and the regionPatreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing The Bloomberg article:bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?leadSource=uverify%20wallNuclear Notebook – PRCthebulletin.org/premium/2023-03/nuclear-notebook-chinese-nuclear-weapons-2023Military and Security Developments involving the PRC – 2022media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF2020 versionmedia.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDFYang, Milanovic, Yaoqi Lin – Anti-corruption campaign in China: An empirical investigationhttps://wid.world/document/anti-corruption-campaign-in-china-an-empirical-investigation-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2023-05/China’s national defence in the New Erahttps://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.htmlReporting on the Rocket force removals:reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3246738/china-removes-nine-pla-generals-top-legislature-sign-wider-purgereuters.com/world/china/china-appoints-dong-jun-new-defence-minister-state-media-2023-12-29Deng & Wei – Measuring Corruption in Chinaproject-syndicate.org/commentary/study-examines-off-the-book-incomes-of-chinese-officials-by-yongheng-deng-and-shang-jin-wei-2023-09Chinese media on Xu Caihou and surrounding caseshttps://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868162.shtmlhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868273.shtmlreuters.com/article/us-china-politics-corruption-idUSKCN0J412Q20141120https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/889506.shtmledition.cnn.com/2024/01/05/china/china-xi-military-purge-analysis-intl-hnk/index.htmlThe party-military relationshiphttps://www.globaltimes.cn/content/875606.shtmlReporting on anti-corruption in Chinareuters.com/world/china/china-defence-ministry-we-will-crack-down-every-corrupt-official-2023-08-31bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-12/china-s-military-vows-no-tolerance-in-crackdown-on-corruption?embedded-checkout=truebusinessinsider.com/china-punished-over-600000-officials-amid-xis-corruption-clampdown-2022-1Peng Wang – Military corruption in China: The role of Guanxi in the buying and selling of military positionsjstor.org/stable/26291585Featured article on Russian corruptionbusinessinsider.com/ukraine-anti-corruption-minister-thanks-russian-military-for-being-corrupt-2022-3China deploying to Gulf of Adenhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202309/1298098.shtmlChinese military raises payscmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2137008/china-raises-pay-pensions-trimmed-down-militarynationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-does-china-pay-its-military-generals-so-little-197554RAND – US China military scorecardrand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.htmlNaval exercisesreuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-led-navy-exercise-starts-with-philippines-observing-first-time-2023-11-11FAS – Chinese silo constructionfas.org/publication/china-is-building-a-second-nuclear-missile-silo-fieldCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.All contentions of fact presented in this presentation should be assumed to be subject to be qualified by the words "reportedly" "allegedly" or both depending on context. In some cases, these words have been omitted from the audio for reasons including a need to keep the presentation understandable and suitable for its primary purpose - entertainment.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:00:46 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:10 — PRC Military Modernisation00:04:01 — Corruption And Purges00:20:15 — The Bloomberg Claims00:30:54 — The Silo Thing - And Implications00:44:42 — Solid Fuel Issues? 00:48:25 — Readiness00:56:21 — Regional Developments And Strategy00:59:38 — Conclusion01:01:12 — Channel Update
How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower Perun 2024-01-14 | Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant sources and reading:NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htmFeatured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challengescarnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-military-needs-bold-reforms-to-overcome-shrinking-population-pub-84822UK Defence Personnel Statisticsresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdfgov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-defence-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2023Mediazona Russian KIA counthttps://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_engUS Army Demographics:https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2022/11/15/62a2d64b/active-component-demographic-report-october-2022.pdfADF demographicshttps://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/service-australian-defence-force-census/latest-releaseROK conscript mobile phone trialkoreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190212000549&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8n11KMdPpIkEaFVDCi5PtwNy2Ko3jEL5XjBnV2H5mYaE9MuYTamttOQdWQqXNx6CsbLVuWUS misses recruiting goal:armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/02/army-misses-recruiting-goal-by-15000-soldiersdefense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/#:~:text=Ashish%20Vazirani%20said%20that%20during,recruiting%20environment%2C%22%20he%20said.defenseone.com/policy/2023/09/army-recruiting-better-last-year-still-short-goal-officials-say/390357news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-sayfather and son deploying togethermilitary.com/daily-news/2013/05/09/national-guard-father-son-deploy-together.htmlDavid Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20the%20recruiting,likely%20to%20be%20even%20worse.CDC datacdc.gov/physicalactivity/resources/unfit-to-serve/index.htmlcdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.htmlUS Army recruiting reforms:armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/10/03/after-missing-goal-again-army-announces-sweeping-recruiting-reformshttps://www.army.mil/article/270458/army_announces_transformation_of_its_recruiting_enterprisehttps://www.army.mil/article/270692/army_details_five_ways_to_bring_recruiting_into_21st_centuryUK medical classifications 1914eehe.org.uk/?p=25030Institutional trust levels:pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/04/trust-in-the-military-exceeds-trust-in-other-institutions-in-western-europe-and-u-sUSAREC:https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russiajamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteersReporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitionsthemoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509USAF pilot poachingairforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2016/03/26/air-force-hopes-to-head-off-the-poaching-of-its-pilotsCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and limitations apply:In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About00:02:33 — History00:07:57 — The Funnel00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem00:25:22 — Driving Propensity00:27:33 — Retention00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"00:37:35 — Looking Abroad00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study01:04:46 — Conclusion01:05:29 — Channel Update
Ask Perun Q&A Special - Nukes, Ukraine, Defence Economics & the Channel Perun 2024-01-07 | For nearly two years now, I've been using this channel to explore questions relating to wars, defence strategy and economics. I've been able to do so because of the unwavering support from all of you.So today, as a way to welcome 2024, I'm answer your questions for a change:What are the modern roles for tactical nuclear weapons? How have Special Operations Forces been used in Ukraine?Would I rather fight a cruiser sized duck or a thousand duck sized cruisers?What can I tell you about the Perun audience? And how did this "Perun" bloke end up talking about Defence Economics anyway?Hope you enjoy this special episode, and we'll be back to regular content next week.Gaming channel cross promotion:youtube.com/channel/UCPYJiiMoA0yOMHI-aiB44RQPatreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading (somewhat abbreviated as it's a more casual episode)Relevant RUSI reports as previously cited, beginning with: rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022Mentioned report on Soviet Nuclear planning 1970sarchives.gov/files/declassification/iscap/pdf/2012-090-doc1.pdfCBO report on nukes - 1977https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA593862.pdfPolitico reporting on US nukes in Europepolitico.com/news/2022/10/26/u-s-plans-upgraded-nukes-europe-00063675Featured "USNEWS" list of countries with strong militariesusnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/strong-militaryReport on the spending of USA Ukraine aid within the USAwashingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boostReport on boosting LRASM productionairandspaceforces.com/lockheed-martin-double-lrasm-productionMichael Frankel, James Scouras & George Ullrich - Nonstrategic nuclear weapons at an inflection point:https://www.jhuapl.edu/sites/default/files/2022-12/NonstrategicNuclearWeapons.pdfLooking Beyond the War: Planning for Ukraine's Reconstructionrand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/09/looking-beyond-the-war-planning-for-ukraines-reconstruction.htmlSource report for featured JASSM imageen.defence-ua.com/news/arms_for_ukrainian_f_16_jassm_missiles_of_370_km_range_in_priority_forbes-7713.htmlFeatured report on Molotov Cocktailswashingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/ukraine-google-molotov-cocktails-resistance-russiaReporting on Hungary and Ukraine aidaljazeera.com/news/2023/12/15/hungary-blocks-54bn-eu-financial-aid-for-ukraineWP reporting on the use of Spetsnaz unitswashingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/14/leaked-documents-russian-spetsnazComments & Caveats:This may be a Q&A format, but all normal caveats and limitations applyI would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Q&A SPECIAL 00:01:12 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT? 00:01:52 — UKRAINE & DRONE WARFARE 00:01:55 — The Role of SOF & Intel 00:04:49 — Drones & Robotics 00:09:09 — The State of the Ruble 00:10:57 — Surprises & Revelations 00:13:30 — "Emptied the Armouries" 00:15:17 — The World and Ukraine 00:16:52 — Weapons and Tools 00:20:47 — The $75B Question 00:24:47 — SYSTEMS AND ECONOMICS 00:24:58 — Tactical Nuclear Weapons 00:25:56 — Different Targets, Different Requirements 00:28:29 — Precision Wins 00:30:37 — Evolving Defence Thinking 00:35:42 — Least Credible Sources 00:39:37 — Public Education 00:41:26 — The One Thing? 00:42:28 — THE LUCKY DIP 00:42:38 — A Topic Outside Defence Eco? 00:43:49 — Moskvas and Ducks 00:45:31 — THE CHANNEL & PROCESS 00:45:39 — The Origin Story 00:47:53 — The Process 00:49:31 — The Team 00:51:05 — The Role of OSINT 00:52:28 — The Impact and Risks 00:53:37 — You – The Audience 00:55:25 — What Next? 00:56:59 — Perun Lore 00:57:44 — ABOUT PERUN 00:57:53 — THE 1990s 01:00:23 — Education and Background 01:03:20 — The Impact of the Channel 01:05:01 — The Field 01:06:10 — EE = Perun? 01:06:23 — Food 01:07:06 — GAMING 01:07:16 — Tabletop Games 01:08:10 — EVE Online 01:08:21 — What Next for Perun Gaming? 01:08:46 — CHANNEL UPDATE
Red Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks, Trade and Escalation Perun 2024-01-01 | The global economic system is built on trade, and to trade, you need ships and safe, efficient routes. Often, that mean travelling through maritime choke points, where geography squeezes trade through a concentrated point.In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa.Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship.And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world?On that cheery note, welcome to 2024.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Corrections & Comments:There are two flubs in the Audio that need to be mentioned on this one:Firstly - marine traffic .com, not marine tracker (flubbed because I use it as a tracker I think)Secondly - prosperity guardian not, as I say *twice*, prosperity gardenThirdly - there are a few times where i refer to a 'trip' intending to mean a 'round trip' but this is not uniform. I apologise for the ambiguityall other normal caveats and limitations apply:In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Relevant Reading (will be expanded when I'm at my other PC):US CENTCOMtwitter.com/CENTCOMAll ship traffic imagery generated using marinetraffic.comUN Review of Maritime Transport 2023unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2023The CMFcombinedmaritimeforces.comProsperity Guardiantheguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacksreuters.com/world/us-allies-reluctant-red-sea-task-force-2023-12-28edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/politics/us-military-commercial-ships-red-sea-houthi-militants/index.htmlaljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/analysis-has-the-us-led-red-sea-force-calmed-shippers-amid-houthi-attacksHouthi boats sunk by USbbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67851897navytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/12/31/us-navy-sinks-three-houthi-small-boats-in-hijack-attempt-in-red-seaReports on disruption and costs:reuters.com/world/middle-east/suez-disruption-new-inflation-risk-horizon-2023-12-19cnbc.com/2023/12/21/container-prices-hit-10000-freight-inflation-soars-in-red-sea-chaos.htmljoc.com/article/fresh-surcharges-pile-asia-europe-shippers-amid-red-sea-attacks_20231229.htmlHouthis:reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemen-houthis-flex-military-muscle-parade-riyadh-seeks-ceasefire-2023-09-21aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/uk-maritime-group-reports-drones-explosion-off-yemen-coastajot.com/news/spiraling-cost-in-ocean-freight-shipping-rates-is-becoming-a-reality-as-suez-canal-remains-out-of-boundsACAPS (Yemen control map)acaps.org/en/about-us/who-we-areImage of VLS reloadingmaritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osvmaritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osvSM6 upgradesthedrive.com/the-war-zone/27068/navy-to-supersize-its-ultra-versatile-sm-6-missile-for-even-longer-range-and-higher-speedTimestamps:00:00:00 — Red Sea Crisis00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About00:02:05 — Setting The Stage00:11:49 — Motivation And Strikes00:14:04 — Engagements And Targets00:20:40 — Diversions And The Economics Of Disruptions00:28:35 — Forces And Responses00:40:36 — Options For Escalation00:48:33 — The Chokepoint Problem00:58:57 — Why This Matters01:06:32 — Conclusion01:06:56 — Channel Update
Indian Defence Strategy - Forces, Potential and Procurement Disasters Perun 2023-12-23 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunWhen debates arise on what the worlds strongest militaries are, attention tends to focus on the United States, PRC, and the Russian Federation. Less often mentioned is India...and I think that's a massive oversight.With a rapidly growing economy, young demography, and a developing military industry, India's military evolution and strategy are likely to become ever more significant regional and global factors in the coming years. So today, let's talk about itPatreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.At one point I refer to the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2016 - as per the slide, it was actually the Defence Procurement Procedure at the time. My reading was focused on the 2020 document, not 2016 as mentioned.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Relevant Reading (to be expanded)Platform counts are generally MB2022 figures for sake of consistency with other episodesTIV figures are per SIPRIDefence Acquisition Procedure - 2020https://www.ddpmod.gov.in/sites/default/files/DAP%202020%20%2011%20Nov%2021_0.pdfDefence Procurement Procedure - 2016 highlightsscribd.com/document/312506309/DPP-2016-pdfDefence Procurement Procedure - 2013https://cgda.nic.in/pdf/DPP2013.pdfFeatured Comptroller and Auditor General Report (35 or 2014)https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2014/Union_Compliance_Defence_Army_Ordnance_Factories_35_2014.pdfhttps://loksabhadocs.nic.in/Refinput/New_Reference_Notes/English/The%20Defence%20Procurement%20Procedure.pdfDefence Procurement Manual 2016 (DRDO)https://www.drdo.gov.in/sites/default/files/procurement-manuals-document/procurement-manual-2016.pdfReporting on India China clasheswsj.com/articles/spiked-clubs-and-fists-at-14-000-feet-the-deadly-india-china-clash-11592418242Reporting and Service Records bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/26707bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/36000bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/28708economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-air-force-group-captain-who-died-in-air-crash-cremated/articleshow/81570740.cmsReporting on QR bloathttps://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisationUS Force Demographics -2021https://www.defenseculture.mil/Portals/90/Documents/Research/Publications/DEMORPT-2021_demographics_report-20230203.pdfDewey, McGerty, & Solanki (IISS) - Personnel vs. capital: the Indian defence budgetiiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/04/indian-defence-budgetReporting on Agnipathndtv.com/india-news/agnipath-scheme-aims-to-lower-forces-average-age-profile-by-4-5-years-3065496timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-move-to-increase-retirement-age-slash-pensions-triggers-uproar-in-military-circles/articleshow/79046152.cmshttps://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1833765Reporting on Russian arms deliveries to Indiareuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23Reporting on MiG-21https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-do-mig-21-crash-indian-air-force-fighter-aircraft-rajasthan-incident-pilots-death-1981575-2022-07-29https://thewire.in/security/mig-21-squadron-retired-curtain-closing-iaf-most-abiding-fighterhttps://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-are-mig-21s-still-in-service-in-india-despite-several-recent-crashes-2376381-2023-05-08independent.co.uk/asia/india/indian-air-force-mig-21-fleet-rajasthan-crash-b2342898.htmlReporting on QRshttps://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisationINSAS retiringeconomictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/insas-rifles-to-retire-to-be-replaced-by-imported-weapons/articleshow/57479939.cms?from=mdrFeatured WB article on Indian growthworldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/03/india-s-growth-to-remain-resilient-despite-global-challengesReporting on Indian defence budgetbloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/india-s-military-modernization-in-doubt-with-tiny-budget-riseF404 orderflightglobal.com/defence/hal-orders-99-f404-engines-to-support-tejas-production/145127.articleFor comparison: F-16 mishap and pilot loss statisticshttps://www.safety.af.mil/Portals/71/documents/Aviation/Aircraft%20Statistics/F-16.pdfTimestamps:00:00:00 — Indian Defence Strategy00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:14 — History00:07:59 — Strategic Situation00:21:22 — Indian Armed Forces00:27:29 — The Nuclear Program00:36:21 — Strengths & Challenges00:46:37 — Defence Industry & Procurement00:50:14 — Why Procurement Goes Wrong? 01:10:15 — Conclusion01:11:03 — Channel Update
NATO Training and Lessons from the War in Ukraine - Interview with General Ben Hodges (Ret.) Perun 2023-12-17 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare coverage to spot sensational content and identify the facts with Ground News https://ground.news/perunHow do you train an army to fight a war that is different from any you've ever experienced?Support for Ukraine has played a vital role in shaping the progress of the war in Ukraine to date. Ukrainian efforts have heavily leveraged munitions and systems supplied by their allies - but training has also been a key area for allied supportUnlike weapon systems however, evaluating the performance of NATO's training efforts are harder to determine. Reporting tends to focus on the quantity of troops going through these programs, but less reporting focuses on whether the training properly matches the realities of the Ukrainian battlefieldTo get a better understanding of NATO's efforts to train with Ukraine in the years leading up to 2022 and since the full scale invasion, as well as some of the lessons members of the alliance might be learning from the war, today I'm welcoming back retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. LTG Hodges (Ret.) is a former commander of US Army Europe and engaged with Ukrainian forces extensively over his time in that role. I'm very happy to welcome him back to the channel and want to stress that the opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the individuals expressing them. Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcingATP 3-01.81 Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) August 2023irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp3-01-81.pdfReports referencing the wargame series leading up to the Ukrainian summer offensive:washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-warreuters.com/world/europe/us-hosts-war-games-ukraine-ahead-next-phase-russia-conflict-2023-03-02https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/03/12/ukraine-prepares-its-counter-offensive-with-pentagon-hosted-wargames_6019053_4.htmlRUSI – Preliminary lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdfRUSI – Stormbreak: Fighting through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensivestatic.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdfExample of reported feedback by Ukrainians on the limits of NATO trainingopendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military“Inside the secret French camp where Ukrainians prepare for war”https://www.politico.eu/article/in-rural-france-ukrainians-build-real-trenches-in-mock-villages/Reuters reporting on US casualty estimate for Russian forcesreuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12Featured Reports and Image Sourcesbnnbloomberg.ca/russia-hits-ukraine-military-training-center-near-polish-border-1.1736986ausa.org/news/will-fight-difference-maker-ukrainehttps://www.europeafrica.army.mil/Newsroom/Photos/igphoto/2001893071/apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-france-military-f70fb490a8e4fd5ea472e3d81de7a176army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/07/chief-of-the-general-staff-visits-ukrainian-trainingreuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-army-says-it-needs-3-billion-155-mm-artillery-rounds-production-2023-11-07armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/10/22/two-star-wants-to-ease-the-civilian-to-soldier-transition-during-army-basic-trainingDPRK Shell qualityen.defenceua.com/analysis/dissatisfied_with_quality_and_quantity_of_north_korean_artillery_shells_russians_complain-8818.htmlCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.No financial consideration was paid in relation to this interview – though I did request that a charity be nominated for a donation after the interview was recordedLTG Hodges did not exercise any editorial control over this episode as a whole, including my comments or the slides that have been includedTimestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:35 — What Are We Talking About?00:03:37 — Lessons From The Battlefield00:03:56 — Q: Ensuring Training Delivers Value00:07:44 — Q: Training For The Environment00:12:56 — Q: Keeping Up With Adaptation00:15:56 — Q: Observers And Lessons Learned00:19:41 — Q: Lessons So Far?00:22:28 — Q: Wargaming and Assumptions00:25:32 — Q: Training Pre-202200:28:08 — Q: Evolution Of The Training Mission00:34:30 — Q: Training Efforts Post 02/202200:37:22 — Q: Higher Level Training Requirements00:40:47 — Q: Force Regeneration00:43:24 — Cohesion And Training As A Unit00:44:36 — Answer Pt.2: Force Regeneration00:46:09 — Training Program Abbreviation00:47:35 — Evaluating 202300:48:21 — Q: Outcome Vs Commitment00:52:12 — Priorities, Resources & THAAD00:54:01 — Q: The Path To 202501:02:20 — Conclusion01:03:50 — Channel Update
Venezuela, Guyana & The Essequibo Crisis - Posturing or a new Special Military Operation? Perun 2023-12-10 | Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn't make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story - With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela. Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next. One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)On the 1899 ArbitrationAwardlegal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_XXVIII/331-340.pdf1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/GB-VE_660217_Agreement%20to%20Resolve%20Controversy%20over%20Frontier%20British%20Guiana.pdfRelevant ICJ releases and hearing records:icj-cij.org/case/171ICJ Order of 1 December 2023icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/171/171-20231201-ord-01-00-en.pdfIMF Profile: Guyanaimf.org/external/datamapper/profile/GUYIMF Profile: Venezuelaimf.org/external/datamapper/profile/VENFeatured Reports:theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-annex-guyana-maduroedition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/americas/venezuelas-president-orders-creation-of-new-state-and-map-including-land-from-guyana/index.htmlapnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-d956cc4d5d2a70e3a1e762b744e397debloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/venezuela-s-maduro-to-grant-mineral-oil-licenses-in-essequibo?embedded-checkout=truebloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/venezuelan-national-guardsmen-have-been-deserting-in-big-numbers?embedded-checkout=truereuters.com/business/energy/offshore-discoveries-turn-tiny-guyana-into-oil-hotspot-2023-10-23reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-proposes-sixth-oil-project-guyana-129-billion-2023-08-21reuters.com/business/energy/guyana-says-another-significant-discovery-made-stabroek-offshore-block-2023-10-26Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:34 — Venezuela00:07:36 — Guyana00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation00:24:55 — Venezuela's Military00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption00:41:29 — Guyana's Military00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation? 00:51:21 — Regional Actors00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice? 01:04:37 — Conclusion01:05:36 — Channel Update
Exhaustion, Politics & The War in Ukraine - Public Support, Allied Endurance & the War in 2024 Perun 2023-12-03 | It's increasingly understood that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a long and hard one - and in that kind of attrition based struggle, resources and political will can matter as much as battlefield victories or defeats.Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war - and what it may mean for the war in 2024.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading:Ukraine population pyramid - World Population Reviewworldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-populationPutin saying Ukraine would last a week without supportaljazeera.com/news/2023/10/6/putin-says-ukraine-would-last-a-week-if-western-military-support-stops#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20said,the%20United%20States%20dried%20up.Russian polling on the warcarnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118 US opinion polling on Russia news.gallup.com/poll/1642/russia.aspxThe Russia Today article on Zelensky's popularityrt.com/russia/585911-ukraine-zelensky-popularity-pollUkrainian attitudes towards the war:kyivindependent.com/survey-95-of-ukrainians-believe-in-kyivs-victory-against-russiaponarseurasia.org/victory-despite-the-cost-what-ukrainians-think-about-the-war-peace-and-russianews.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspxAnalysis and reporting on Russian 2024 Budget:carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02Featured Daily Mail Article on UK supportdailymail.co.uk/news/article-12585131/Britons-UK-troops-Ukraine-russia-war.htmlReporting on Russian use of prisoners for military purposes:aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/21/russia-moves-to-legalise-prisoners-fighting-in-ukraine-warbbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-warrferl.org/a/russia-drafting-prisoners-law-ukraine-war-attrition/32627429.htmlUS Poling on Russiapewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/#:~:text=Over%20six%2Din%2Dten%20Americans,the%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine.Poling on US war in Afghanistanedition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/15/afghan.war.pollcbsnews.com/news/publics-views-of-afghanistan-war-have-turned-sournews.gallup.com/poll/115270/americans-afghanistan-war-worth-fighting.aspxPolling on US war in Iraq - 2006news.gallup.com/poll/23374/american-public-opinion-iraq-five-conclusions.aspxPolling on the US war in Iraq - 0082pewresearch.org/2008/03/19/public-attitudes-toward-the-war-in-iraq-20032008US poling on Ukraine:pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/pp_2022-03-15_ukraine-russia_00-05pbs.org/newshour/politics/almost-half-of-americans-think-u-s-spending-too-much-on-ukraine-aid-ap-norc-poll-saysnews.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspxThe US affirming "As long as it takes":ft.com/content/ebe3fb32-ec99-4a9a-a757-51e2203223beReporting on Ukraine's 'will not back down' stancealjazeera.com/news/2023/11/29/ukraine-fm-vows-to-keep-fighting-while-lobbying-nato-supportStoltenberg on the need to prepare for a long wartheguardian.com/world/2023/mar/22/jens-stoltenberg-nato-chief-west-support-ukraine-for-long-warBloomberg on mobilisation changes in UAbloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/zelenskiy-faces-manpower-dilemma-in-ukraine-s-stalled-offensive?embedded-checkout=trueArticle source for Avdiivka imagekyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-loses-roughly-4-000-soldiers-in-avdiivka-worst-casualties-rate-in-2023Corrections & Caveats:All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions.Timestamps:00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About?00:02:04 — War Exhaustion00:13:51 — Impacts And Drivers00:16:14 — Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine00:20:07 — Ukraine00:30:53 — Russia00:41:23 — The United States00:53:31 — The European Union00:58:57 — The UK01:02:01 — What Does This Mean?01:03:27 — Conclusion01:04:47 — Channel Update
Russias New Offensive & Ukraines River Crossing: Avdiivka to Kherson - Costs & Consequences Perun 2023-11-26 | Sponsored by Private Internet Access: piavpn.com/PerunAs we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka - burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence. At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast. In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading:The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.As noted in the video - credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)Article in the Economist by Ukraine's Commander in Chief on the current positional nature of the war and Ukraine's requirementseconomist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-warFeatured TASS article on Russian war aimstass.com/politics/1556743?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.comUkrainian source on the 350 armoured vehicles claim used for comparison with VC loss datakyivindependent.com/military-russia-loses-7-000-soldiers-350-armored-vehicles-at-avdiivkaSpotting of LMUR in Jan 2023defence-blog.com/russias-mi-28-helicopter-spotted-with-new-advanced-missile-in-ukraineSource image for the older Dnipro raidsreddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13juzul/ukrainian_special_operations_forces_sso_operatingVarious example reports on Avdiivka & the Dnipro crossingshttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/bradley-ifvs-and-leopard-2-tanks-deployed-to-defend-avdiivka/dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-renews-attacks-on-avdiivka/live-67540356themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/13/russias-military-announces-then-backtracks-on-regrouping-in-southern-ukraine-a83083bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953businessinsider.com/ukraine-pushed-russian-forces-back-2-5-miles-from-dnipro-river-banks-2023-1110-15,000 FPV figure being reportedhttps://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-manufacturers-supply-up-to-15-000-fpv-drones-per-month-to-the-defense-forces/Corrections & Caveats:All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.To those I'll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine - it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About? 00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia00:09:46 — Kherson00:19:13 — Avdiivka00:33:16 — Assessing Losses00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations00:59:31 — Observations01:04:51 — Conclusion01:05:38 — Channel Update
Nuclear Modernisation - Rearmament, ageing stockpiles and why Russias nukes work (probably) Perun 2023-11-19 | Sponsored by Ground News: Compare coverage to spot sensational content and identify the facts with Ground News https://ground.news/perun. Save 40% off during their Black Friday sale. Offer ends Dec 2. Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament. But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels. In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories:thebulletin.org/#navbar-brandthebulletin.org/nuclear-notebookfas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023thebulletin.org/premium/2023-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2023RAND - US China military scorecard (featuring counter-force modelling)rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.htmlNNSA on Plutonium Pit Productionenergy.gov/nnsa/plutonium-pit-productionGovernment Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Productiongao.gov/blog/over-budget-and-delayed-whats-next-u.s.-nuclear-weapons-research-and-production-projectsGAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisationgao.gov/nuclear-weapons-and-forces-sustainment-and-modernizationGAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability”gao.gov/products/gao-23-104661Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030cbo.gov/publication/57130CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032cbo.gov/publication/59365USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheethttps://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/Docs/Sentinel/LGM-35A%20Sentinel%20Fact%20Sheet%20cao%206%20Apr.pdfMattis and the nuclear spongedefensenews.com/space/2017/01/12/mattis-enthusiastic-on-icbms-tepid-on-nuclear-cruise-missile/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVRabFpqVTBNemszT0RWbSIsInQiOiJhaDhFaXdndE1tWjNnc3NwblkwWWNTWFJ2elgxZzJLVElUTFhUOWtNa3ZQbmhkdXlUd0srU0FjeEtuYzVSSlJPNDUyaDRsVkNzK0JsNG5XVnJVblllcUQ0TDY3bmpud1wvWXZ6OVBwaGMxMlEwWHN3UTFvOVgyMWhmTzd6dFh5SisifQ%3D%3DNNSA warhead activities factsheetenergy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/05/f62/2019-05-02-FACTSHEET-WeaponsActivities.pdfNNSA W76-1 Fact sheetosti.gov/servlets/purl/1357923CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh)csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201210_Hersman_US_Nuclear.pdfUS 2022 National Defence Strategymedia.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDFCRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Reviewcrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12266CRS on Nuclear Triadcrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10519Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmatcbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-satan-ii-icbm-missile-failed-putin-new-start-nuclear-treatyFirst Strike IMDb entry imdb.com/title/tt2429312Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol - How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuzethebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuzeReporting on production of Pits at Los Alamostime.com/6296743/los-alamos-lab-plutonium-pits-nuclear-weaponsReport on Sarmat going “on duty”aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2/russia-puts-advanced-sarmat-nuclear-missile-system-on-combat-dutyWired – on Russian nukes not workingwired.com/story/nuclear-weapons-testingUK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UKcommonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9077Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb00:21:45 — United States00:34:54 — Russia00:54:27 — China01:02:22 — France01:07:08 — United Kingdom01:10:55 — Conclusion01:11:48 — Channel Update
More Game Changers (and Failures) in Ukraine - From Starlink & Electronic warfare to Hypersonics Perun 2023-11-12 | A few weeks ago, I looked at some of the many systems that have been used in Ukraine that attracted their share of of media hype and asked whether they delivered on their hype.Today, I round out that list with more hyped up systems that didn't make in into the first video, while also looking at some that I'd probably nominate as just as, or more significant, that the ones drawing heaps of media attention. Expect a focus on the importance of context and opportunity costs as we look at Kizhal, SCALP, the TB-2 drone and Orlan drones, as well as Starlink and Russia's extensive park of EW assets. Thank you all of you who voted for this topic - I hope you enjoy.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcingThe Russian Way of War (Grau & Bartles) https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdfJustin Bronk - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: cna.org/reports/2023/05/russian-combat-air-strengths-and-limitations GAO-21-24 ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM OPERATIONSgao.gov/assets/720/711469.pdfRUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence (Bronk, Reynolds & Watling)rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defenceRUSI – The Orlan Complex, Tracking the supply chains of Russia’s most successful UAVrusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most-successful-uav/interactive-summaryRUSI – Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of its Invasion of Ukraine (Watling & Reynolds)static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdfRussian military strategy core tenents and operational concepts - Michael Kofman, Anya Fink, Dmitry Gorenburg, Mary Chesnut, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Julian Waller cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-operational-concepts.pdfReporting on Musk and Starlink over Crimeahttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-09/elon-musk-refused-ukrainian-request-to-activate-starlink-network/102835524Palantin making its training intro in 2019janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russias-palantin-electronic-warfare-system-makes-training-debutIncluded image on Strelets slide - RedditRosoboronexport on Streletshttps://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/military-communications-equipment-and-automated-control-systems/automated-control-systems/strelets/Included report in intel sharingtheguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/07/us-spies-ukraine-russia-military-intelligenceStarlink use 2022ft.com/content/f69b75cf-c36a-4ab3-9eb7-ad0aa00d230cStarshieldairandspaceforces.com/space-force-contract-spacex-starshieldStarlink latency map (demonstrating UA usage)starlink.com/map?view=latencyReporting on Pentagon deal with SpaceX cnbc.com/2023/06/01/pentagon-awards-spacex-with-ukraine-contract-for-starlink-satellite-internet.htmlShoigu on Orlan productiontass.com/defense/1645501Rosoboronexport on Orlan 30https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/uavs/orlan-30/Caveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.Timestamps00:00:00 — More Game Changers00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:43 — System Shaping Battlefields00:09:56 — Kinzhal And Storm Shadow/SCALP00:26:12 — TB-2 And Orlan00:40:51 — Communication00:48:53 — Electronic Warfare01:05:30 — Conclusions01:06:43 — Channel Update
Irans Military Strategy & Power Projection - Drones, Proxies & Production under Sanctions Perun 2023-11-05 | Compared to many of the other militaries we’ve looked at, Iran’s force structure and overarching strategy stands out.From its arsenal of Shah era weapons to its new generation of missiles, in this episode we did a bit deeper into Iran’s military capabilities, limitations, and the industrial capabilities behind them.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAURelevant Reading/sourcingPlatform figures per MB2022 as always for sake of consistency with my other works.IMF data on Iranimf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/IRN?zoom=IRN&highlight=IRNvIAEA Director General’s Statement on Verification in Iraniaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-generals-statement-on-verification-in-iran-0Reporting on the IRGC vs Artesh budgetdefensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2021/12/16/iran-more-than-doubles-revolutionary-guards-budget-in-fy22-billCSIS – The Iranian Missile Threat – Anthony Cordesmancsis.org/analysis/iranian-missile-threatCSIS – Missile Defence Project Iranmissilethreat.csis.org/country/iranIran friendly fire incidenttheguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/iranian-navy-ship-hit-by-missile-in-fatal-friendly-fire-incident-in-gulfIAEA head on Iranreuters.com/world/world-must-not-fail-iran-it-did-north-korea-iaea-chief-says-2023-10-16Featured Times article on IRGC in Syriatime.com/90807/iran-syria-revolutionary-guardIAEA reporting on Iran (Reuters)reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-reports-no-progress-iran-uranium-stock-enriched-60-grows-2023-09-04Iran missile testapnews.com/article/iran-khorramshahr-ballistic-missile-nuclear-tensions-017382e19220700c618eeb51d0bd8b94FP – Iran is filling Armenia’s power vacuumforeignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/iran-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-russia-nagorno-karabakh-syunikReporting on Saudi-Iran détenteforeignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochement-normalization-deal-china-de-escalation-yemen-syriaFakour imagesirangeomil.blogspot.com/2018/07/analysis-fakour-air-to-air-missile.htmlvFrench statement on Iran’s nuclear programonu.delegfrance.org/we-remain-determined-that-iran-must-never-develop-a-nuclear-weapon-and-mustCRS Reports:Iran and Nuclear Weapons Productioncrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12106Iran’s Nuclear Program – compliance with international obligationssgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R40094.pdfIran’s Nuclear Program and U.N. Sanctions Reimpositioncrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11583Michael Eisenstadt – IISS - Iran after Sanctions: Military Procurement and Force-Structure Decisionsiiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/images/comment/analysis/2017/december/3-eisenstadt2125.pdfMichael Eisenstadt - Iranian military developments and trendswashingtoninstitute.org/media/6362Iran’s Foreign and Defence Policiescrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44017/80Iran – Background and U.S. Policycrsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47321Shaan Shaikh – CSIS – Iranian missiles in Iraqcsis.org/analysis/iranian-missiles-iraqCSIS - The Iranian and Houthi War against Saudi Arabiacsis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/211221_Jones_IranianHouthi_SaudiArabia.pdf?VersionId=fn1d98tAhj7yOUr.IncppMueLOC4kv83Reuters on Iran backing Iraqi militiareuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-tactical-shift-iran-grows-new-loyal-elite-among-iraqi-militias-2021-05-21Khamenei praising Basijreuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-khamenei-praises-basij-forces-confronting-riots-tv-2022-11-26Reporting on the 2017 Iran political rifttheguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/rift-between-irans-ayatollah-and-re-elected-president-widensUK House of Commons Briefing on Iran’s nuclear programcommonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870IranM2 dataceicdata.com/en/indicator/iran/money-supply-m2Included article on sanctions sunsetedition.cnn.com/2023/10/18/politics/us-sanctions-iran-jcpoa-transition-day/index.htmlIncluded article on Iran drone productiontheguardian.com/world/2023/feb/14/us-says-iran-becoming-a-drone-leader-as-russia-uses-its-craft-in-ukraineSource on included F-4 imagehttps://www.key.aero/article/how-does-iran-manage-keep-its-ageing-f-4-phantom-iis-flyingCaveats & Comments:All normal caveats and comments apply.In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes only.Timestamps00:00:00 — Opening Words00:01:26 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — History00:09:24 — Position And Strategy00:16:25 — The Force00:28:47 — The Proxies00:38:22 — Economy And Defence Production00:49:40 — Production And Sanctions Busting00:57:37 — Missiles And Drones01:10:34 — Conclusion01:11:30 — Channel Update
The Future of the Aircraft Carrier - New Threats, Power Projection & Growing Fleets Perun 2023-10-29 | Since the second world war, the aircraft carrier has been a dominant symbol of naval might. Now however, the Aircraft carrier is facing a growing family of new and evolving threats, ranging from anti ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics, to more capable submarines and unmanned systems. Some argue that these threats mean the Carrier may be ready to go the way of the battleship, becoming obsolete. On the other hand, those same nations perfecting anti-carrier weapons are also investing extensively in new carriers of their own, suggesting they retain value.In this video I look at carrier evolution, fleets, roles, threats - and the potential future of these extremely expensive platforms.Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAUCaveats, Comments and Corrections:All normal caveats and disclaimers applyI would also like to note I occasionally use terms like Carrier Strike Group and Carrier Task Force interchangeably - while the former has far greater contemporary relevance. Force of habit from historical studies so apologise for any confusion causedReadings and Sources:List is abridged as I'm feeling unwell:Congressional Research Service - China Primer: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11719John Lehmen - Aircraft Carriers—Missions, Sur aft Carriers—Missions, Survivability ability, Size, Cost, Numbers - Naval War College Reviewhttps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8219&context=nwc-reviewGerald Ford in Eastern Medhttps://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3552801/uss-gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea/CSIS - The first battle in the next war - Wargaming a Chinese Invasion...csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQLieutenant Commander G. B. Vroom (1925) - Strategic Value of the Aircraft Carrierusni.org/magazines/proceedings/1925/january/strategic-value-aircraft-carrierRAND - Future Aircraft Carrier Optionsrand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2006.htmlCRS - Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft CarrierProgram: Background and Issues for CongressCongressional Research Service - China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congresssgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdfIncluded reporting on Rapid Dragon:thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42469/our-best-look-yet-at-rapid-dragon-cargo-plane-launched-stealth-cruise-missiles-in-actionUS Navy force levels - Naval history and heritage commandhttps://www.history.navy.mil/research/histories/ship-histories/us-ship-force-levels.html2021 reporting on naval DEWnews.usni.org/2021/04/07/navy-installing-more-directed-energy-weapons-on-ddgs-conducting-land-based-laser-testing-this-yearTASS reporting on Tsirkontass.com/defense/941559321 Day carrier deploymentdefense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2516467/austin-praises-nimitz-carrier-strike-group-for-record-breaking-deployment/#:~:text=The%20Nimitz%20Carrier%20Strike%20Group%20had%20the%20longest%20deployment%20since,to%20be%20roughly%20six%20months.F-76 datasheetdocs.citgo.com/msds_pi/13176.pdfCollins vs USN in 2000afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kirafr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kircarrier theme park as mentionedhttps://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attraction_Review-g311293-d1865169-Reviews-Tianjin_Binhai_Aircraft_Carrier_Theme_Park-Tianjin.htmlUSNI - Need for air superiority and ship killing weapons says Pacific air-forces commandernews.usni.org/2023/03/21/u-s-needs-air-superiority-ship-killing-weapons-to-defend-taiwan-pacific-air-forces-commander-saysCRS - China naval modernisationsgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdfReporting on PRC satellite based reconnaissance and tracking capabilitiesdefenseone.com/threats/2023/09/chinas-new-satellites-extend-its-militarys-reach-us-says/390223Older 2013 article on the ASBM kill chainairandspaceforces.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2013/December%202013/1213china.pdfReport quoting Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler on PRC investment in AShMnews.usni.org/2021/01/27/u-s-admiral-china-can-keep-pouring-money-into-anti-ship-ballistic-missilesTimestamps:00:00:00 — The Future Of The Aircraft Carrier00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:15 — History00:08:17 — What Makes A Carrier? 00:13:55 — Global Carrier Forces00:25:46 — Strategic Power Projection00:29:44 — Economics00:39:56 — Vulnerabilities00:47:52 — Countermeasures & Challenges00:55:58 — If Not The Carrier, What? 01:04:20 — What Next For The Carrier01:06:20 — Conclusion01:06:44 — Channel Update
