Perun
Russias attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure - does strategic bombing ever work?
updated
Beginning on September 16th, thousands of small explosions occurred across Lebanon - not caused by airstrikes or artillery, but by the detonation of thousands of Hezbollah issued communication devices.
In this episode, I discuss the detonations, explore how they may have occurred, and ask what lessons they might highlight regarding the importance of supply chain security.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
US Defence Logistics Agency Supply Chain Security Strategy
https://www.dla.mil/Portals/104/Documents/Headquarters/StrategicPlan/SupplyChainSecurityStrategy.pdf
CSIS - Escalating to War between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran
csis.org/analysis/escalating-war-between-israel-hezbollah-and-iran
RUSI - Silicon Lifeline
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine/interactive-summary
United Nations on Resolution 1701
news.un.org/en/story/2024/10/1155221
Nasrallah describing the scale of the pager and walkie-talkie operations impacts
voanews.com/a/israeli-military-reports-strikes-against-hezbollah-sites/7790298.html
Referenced or Relevant Reporting on the Pager & Walkie Talkie operation, background & aftermath
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallah
reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/HEZBOLLAH-PAGERS/mopawkkwjpa
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-whats-behind-the-hezbollah-beeper-and-walkie-talkie-explosions
rferl.org/a/budapest-lebanon-pagers-attack-hezbollah/33125029.html
timesofisrael.com/how-hezbollah-was-fooled-into-purchasing-explosive-pagers
defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2024/09/17/hezbollah-pagers-explode-across-lebanon-injuring-thousands
twz.com/news-features/hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-could-be-as-monumental-a-cyber-espionage-operation-as-stuxnet
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/pixels/article/2024/09/18/hezbollah-pager-blasts-most-likely-caused-by-inserted-explosive_6726497_13.html
bbc.com/news/articles/c93yg2w53dzo
theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/19/israeli-front-controlled-manufacturing-process-likeliest-explanation-for-attacks-on-hezbollah
bbc.com/news/articles/c9qvl3vlvlvo
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine
Hezbollah vowing to 'continue fight'
aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/10/8/hezbollah-vows-to-continue-fight-against-israel-until-gaza-ceasefire
apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973
Reporting on the 02/10 missile attack by Iran
theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/iranian-strikes-on-israel-what-happened-why-did-iran-attack-missiles-damage-what-next
Yoav Gallant released video
https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1838265125784162815
Reporting on potential Nasrallah Successor
france24.com/en/middle-east/20241001-easy-choice-hezbollah-s-likely-new-leader-is-nasrallah-s-cousin-hashem-safieddine
RoK decapitation strategy
nknews.org/2023/12/drills-on-assassinating-kim-jong-un-remain-an-option-rok-defense-chief-says
edition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/asia/south-korea-plan-to-assassinate-kim-jong-un/index.html
The F-35 incident
defensenews.com/air/2022/09/07/pentagon-suspends-f-35-deliveries-over-chinese-alloy-in-magnet
thediplomat.com/2022/09/chinese-parts-in-the-f-35-highlight-concerning-trend-in-the-us-defense-sector
Reporting on PRC restrictions (or non-restrictions) on foreign hardware and software
cnbc.com/2023/09/13/china-says-it-hasnt-banned-iphones-or-foreign-devices-for-government.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:45 — What Am I Talking About (And Not Talking About)?
00:03:21 — Background
00:09:24 — Setting Up The Pager Strike
00:19:55 — The Day Of The Pagers
00:27:14 — The Proxy Problem
00:29:38 — Lessons On Supply Chain Integrity
00:38:23 — A Kiwiland Dilemma
00:48:46 — Personalised Deterrence?
00:57:06 — Closing Thoughts
00:59:12 — Channel Update
In that environment, the Republic of Korea has become an increasingly prolific arms exporter, with the Korean defence industry working to sustain not just the ROK Armed Forces, but also inking major contracts with buyers from the Asia Pacific to Europe.
So following an invitation from the organisers of Korea's largest Defence Exhibition, the Korea Army International Defence Industry Exhibition (KADEX), I thought it was time for something a little different this week.
Join me for a bit of a Perun road-trip, as we look at range of Korean and international systems, the themes emerging from the event, and what it might indicate about the evolving defence market, and the RoK's role in it.
Thousands of booths, tens of thousands of attendees, and one Aussie trying to bring you an inside look at it all.
Thanks again to the organisers, my translator, and those who accepted (sometimes very long) interviews over the course of the event.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (To follow within 24 hours due to late release)
Note much of the content contained in this episode was specifically gathered for this channel on location..
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Please also refer to the disclosures in this video and find further details on KADEX at: kadexaroka.com/eng
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening
01:41 — What Am I Talking About
02:09 — KADEX
06:16 — UAS Are Everywhere
15:44 — Next Generation Armour
24:00 — Automation
27:04 — Fires - Munitions
33:01 — Fires - Rocket Artillery Systems
36:20 — Fires - SPGs
45:17 — Watching Ukraine - Tactics
49:00 — Watching Ukraine - Environment
50:53 — Observations On The Conference
59:52 — Channel Update
We first discussed Russia's nuclear doctrine in 2022 - arguing that it suggested nuclear use was far less likely that some feared.
Now, Russia is announcing changes to that doctrine, and so I want to look at what's changing, why, and what it might mean for the risk of nuclear war.
Given the topic, expect the jokes to be a bit sparse...
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):
Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/
Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman September 15, 2022
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1829920/?lang=en
Medvedev on Telegram (2022)
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/203
Joint Statement on Ukraine (2022)
state.gov/joint-statement-on-ukraine-2
Reporting on Russia's dirty bomb claims (2022)
reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-doubles-down-dirty-bomb-claims-2022-10-25
reuters.com/world/indias-defence-minister-warns-against-nuclear-weapons-call-with-russian-2022-10-26
defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3202353/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-holds-a-press-conference
tass.com/politics/1526673
ren.tv/news/v-mire/1040152-polianskii-nazval-glavnuiu-tsel-kieva-pri-provokatsii-s-griaznoi-bomboi
(India and China playing a role in deterring Russian nuclear use)
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-china-helped-deter-russia-from-nuclear-use-says-blinken/articleshow/98228909.cms?from=mdr#google_vignette
Belarus on Russian nuclear weapons in the country
rferl.org/a/belarus-lukashenka-russia-nuclear-weapons/32920346.html
Infosheet on UK nuclear deterrence policy
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61eea6848fa8f505893f1e03/UK_Nuclear_Deterrence_Policy_Booklet.pdf
Peter Dickinson - Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops working
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-keep-escalating-his-nuclear-blackmail-until-it-stops-working
Six Days in October (CSIS) - Lachlan MacKenzie
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-09/240903_MacKenzie_SixDays_October.pdf?VersionId=slf3As45eT_JKVIXpEsEUwq3SYttzFkP
CSIS - Deter and Divide Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in Ukraine
features.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoric
Discussion of Russia's changing nuclear doctrine
carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-nuclear-doctrine-blackmail?lang=en
reuters.com/world/europe/putin-draws-nuclear-red-line-west-2024-09-27
bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjej0rvw0o
2018 US NPR
media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdf
Mariana Budjeryn - Bulletin of the atomic scientists - Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it's winning
thebulletin.org/2024/10/why-russia-is-more-likely-to-go-nuclear-in-ukraine-if-its-winning
Russia warns US off sending long-range weapons to Ukraine (2022)
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-government-and-politics-c43d68369418ed2507f5432074d89932
Sarmat test failure
cbsnews.com/news/russian-icbm-test-launch-failed
iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/09/russias-sarmat-icbm-woes
Russia to stage nuclear exercises
dw.com/en/would-russia-really-attack-ukraine-with-nuclear-weapons/a-69020821
Medvedev on nuclear use
aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/22/russia-can-defend-new-regions-with-nuclear-weapons-medvedev-says
tass.com/politics/1796377
Scholz citing escalation risk
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-cites-risk-escalation-deliver-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
03:56 — Doctrine And Strategy
07:21 — Russian Nuclear Doctrine
15:22 — Nuclear Coercion In 2022
27:18 — The New Doctrine
31:39 — Catalyst
38:02 — The Threat
45:07 — Does Doctrine Matter?
46:54 — The Logic Of Nuclear (Non)Use
52:17 — Nuclear Blackmail
59:50 — Channel Update
Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions.
In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Special plug for the Battletech fans in the audience - Tex Talks Battletech : The Turning Point at Twycross
youtube.com/watch?v=Fa1rfZsKfa0
Reading and Sourcing:
The War Zone & Maxar Technologies - before and after images of target sites
twz.com/news-features/satellite-images-show-massive-devastation-at-russian-ammo-storage-sites-struck-by-ukrainian-drones
Credit to @HartreeFock for his commentary on the construction phase of the Toropets magazines
https://x.com/HartreeFock/status/1837087448448352289
Credit to @Tatarrigami_UA and Frontintelligence insight for their work on Tikhoretsk
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1837359410479268180
Featured TASS reports
Reporting on Toropets
tass.com/politics/1844703
Claims of attacks on Ukrainian depots
tass.com/politics/1804883
Defence Express - identifying GRAU arsenals within 750km of Ukraine
en.defence-ua.com/analysis/assessment_of_other_key_grau_arsenals_as_big_as_in_toropets_within_ukraines_reach-11911.html
Estonian 30,000 tonnes at Toropets figure
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-loses-2-3-months-worth-of-ammunition-1726996045.html
theconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438
Additional featured imagery and coverage
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/satellite-imagery-shows-that-russian-depots-near-tikhoretsk-and-oktyabrske-have-been-almost-completely-destroyed/
Featured reporting
aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/18/ukrainian-drone-attack-sparks-massive-blast-at-arsenal-in-russia
businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-damage-russian-arsenal-blew-up-earthquake-strength-2024-9
businessinsider.com/us-himars-help-destroy-20-depots-of-russian-artillery-ammo-says-ukraine-2022-7
edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.html
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/24/ukraine-weapons-limits-biden-permission-atacms
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:40 — What Am I Talking About?
02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage
06:56 — Depots Of Interest
10:10 — The Attacks
16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion
29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation
34:31 — Damage Assessment
42:21 — Implications
52:36 — Channel Update
Recently, we spoke about the state of Russia's economy after more than two and a half years of war. It was characterised by strong growth but also signs of overheating, as the economy ran at or beyond capacity.
Today, I want to cover the other side, and look at how Ukraine's is holding on after extensive Russian pressure. I'll look at headline economic indicators, the budget, defence production, and the impact of attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.
Data, graphs and finances - it's sure to be a great time (if the upload is correct this time).
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
IMF - Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility... and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/06/28/Ukraine-Fourth-Review-of-the-Extended-Arrangement-under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Request-551207
IMF reach staff level agreement on fifth review under the EFF
imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/pr24326-IMF-and-Ukrainian-Authorities-Reach-Staff-Level-Agreement-Fifth-Review-EFF
Centre for Economic Strategy (Ukrainian) war economy tracker
https://ces.org.ua/en/tracker-economy-during-the-war
OECD outlook, Ukraine 2024
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-cabinet-of-ministers-submits-2025-1726314318.html
Russia increasing key rate to 19%
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/
Reporting on Ukraine deal on pre-war debt
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-strike-deal-delay-debt-repayment/
Ukraine approves draft 2025 budget
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-government-approves-2025-draft-budget-pm-says-2024-09-13
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/13/7474981/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/13/7474981/
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-s-cabinet-of-ministers-submits-2025-1726314318.html
August Russian missile attack, example reporting
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-27/russia-hits-ukraine-s-power-grid/104272830
Previous and other missile attack reporting
aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/19/russian-attacks-on-ukraine-power-grid-probably-violate-humanitarian-law-un
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-attacks-power-grid-oil-f117d1493f690d2192c9f6c60cbcf32d
cbsnews.com/news/russia-missile-attack-ukraine-power-outages-kyiv
Bodhana production reporting
kyivindependent.com/ukraines-bohdana-howitzer-is-rolling-off-production-lines-heres-what-it-can-do
Funding of UA defence industry using proceeds of Russian assets
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/first-transfer-eu15-billion-proceeds-immobilised-russian-assets-made-available-support-ukraine-today-2024-07-26_en
euromaidanpress.com/2024/09/20/eu-funds-ukrainian-defense-industry-with-e400-million-from-frozen-russian-asset-proceeds
Rheinmetall in Ukraine
rheinmetall.com/en/company/subsidiaries/rheinmetall-ukrainian-defense-industry
thedefensepost.com/2024/05/17/rheinmetall-air-defense-facility-ukraine/#:~:text=A%20majority%2051%20percent%20of,of%20producing%20400%20tanks%20annually.
rheinmetall.com/en/media/stories/2023/rheinmetall-a-powerful-partner-at-ukraine-side
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-rheinmetall-plans-ukraine-arms-factories/live-68526705
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-19-joint-venture-in-the-ukraine
defenseone.com/business/2024/06/rheinmetall-opens-repair-center-armored-vehicles-ukraine/397283
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/11/rheinmetall-opens-repair-facility-for-combat-vehicles-in-ukraine
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:26 — Looking At Ukraine
00:10:38 — Production Volumes
00:13:35 — Fiscal Stability
00:26:40 — Defence Production
00:38:08 — The Long Range Strike Campaign
00:41:11 — The Ukrainian Power Grid
00:51:45 — What Is Going On Here?
00:56:38 — Interpreting The Data
01:03:08 — A Hard Winter Ahead
01:05:03 — Channel Update
We've spent a lot of time in the past talking about systems that have been called 'game changers' or arguably overperformed in Ukraine, relative to either expectations, costs, or both.
Today, we look at some of the opposite - systems that may not be having the expected impact, and which might prompt some thinking in planners observing the Ukrainian experience.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
DoD Reimbursable Rates FY2023
comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/documents/rates/fy2023/2023_b_c.pdfv
BMD-4M Product Information
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/armored-combat-vehicles/bmd-4m/
US Army - FY 2025 Budget Estimates - Aircraft Procurement, Army
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2025/Base%20Budget/Procurement/Aircraft-Procurement-Army.pdf
Program Acquisition Cost by Weapon System United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request
comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_Weapons.pdf
Chatham House - Assessing Russian Plans for Military Regeneration
chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/2024-07-09-assessing-russian-plans-military-boulegue-et-al.pdf
Excalibur announcement and initial arrival reporting
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3179784/himars-excalibur-rounds-headed-for-ukraine-in-625-million-security-assistance-p
interestingengineering.com/videos/ep-5-why-is-the-m982-excalibur-round-a-game-changer-in-ukraine
Reporting on Polish AH-64 purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Press%20Release%20-%20Poland%2023-48%20CN.pdf
reuters.com/world/poland-buys-96-apache-helicopters-us-2024-08-13
breakingdefense.com/2024/08/a-breakthrough-moment-for-polish-military-aviation-as-apache-deal-is-signed
Reporting on Russian EW
businessinsider.com/us-gave-up-sending-ukraine-100k-excalibur-shells-hit-targets-2024-5
nytimes.com/2024/05/25/world/europe/us-weapons-russia-jamming-ukraine.html
Roger McDermott "Shamanov Fights for VDV’s Future" - 2012
jamestown.org/program/shamanov-fights-for-vdvs-future
Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) - AH-64E Apache New Build - Dec 2022
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2022_SARS/AH64E_New_Build_SAR_DEC_2022_edited.pdf
Reporting on FARA
flightglobal.com/defence/how-combat-helicopter-losses-in-ukraine-brought-down-us-armys-fara-strategy/157468.article
https://www.defensenew s.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-billions-on-a-new-helicopter-that-now-will-never-fly/
Russian Ultra-nationalist rally report 2007
reuters.com/article/us-russia-racist/russian-ultra-nationalists-rally-as-police-watch-idUSL2851145120070128
Japan
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/japan-to-ditch-attack-helicopters#:~:text=Japan%20has%20declared%20its%20intention,five-year%20defence%20buildup%20plans
interceptor drone vs Helicopter
twz.com/air/ukraine-situation-report-russians-say-their-mi-8-hip-helicopter-shot-down-by-drone
Hellfire 2
lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/hellfire/23-05810-TM_AGMS-HELLFIRE-II-Product-Card-1.pdf
JAGM
lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/jagm/22-15188-TM-AGMS-Product-Card-Updates-JAGM.pdf
Polish Chunmoo order
janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/industry/poland-orders-second-batch-of-chunmoo-mrlsv
Reporting on EW in Ukraine
kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war
afr.com/world/europe/russia-has-the-upper-hand-in-electronic-warfare-with-ukraine-20240108-p5evul
Spike NLOS + AH-64
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/13280-lockheed-martin-successfully-completes-spike-nlos-from-apachev
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
00:54 — What Am I Talking About?
03:08 — Rating This
05:15 — When Precision - Isn't
07:30 — Excalibur
12:51 — GLSDB
20:10 — The Paradrop Problem
32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters
35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses
41:08 — Polish Figures
47:04 — What Could It Be Instead?
54:01 — Not The End For Rotary...
58:13 — Channel Update
Since 2022, there have been wildly divergent predictions made about the way the Russian economy would hold up under pressure.
Now, deep into Q3 2024 I want to have a closer look at the Russian economy, sanctions, and the risks it faces. And for a change in perspective, we will do it primarily using Russian data.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):
Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 26 July 2024 - https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18870
Elvira Nabiullina’s speech at State Duma’s plenary session on Bank of Russia’s 2023 Annual Report -- https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18603
Bank of Russia Annual Report 2023
https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/49164/ar_2023_e.pdf
Rosstat - on industrial production in H1 2024
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/112_24-07-2024.html
Featured interview with Belousov
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6428575?ref=en.thebell.io
Russia stops disclosing oil product data
interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105511
Russian claim of potential 6.8% manufacturing increase in 2024
interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105607
featured commentary on Russian economy featuring Russian data
en.thebell.io/central-bank-forecasts-suggest-higher-inflation-for-longer
en.thebell.io/russias-wartime-investment-boom
Russian economic reporting
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/19550039?ref=en.thebell.io
reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-think-tank-warns-stagnating-industrial-output-investment-2024-04-27
Reporting on payment issues
reuters.com/business/finance/russia-payment-hurdles-with-china-partners-intensified-august-sources-say-2024-08-30
Russian gas flows per Reuters
reuters.com/business/energy/russias-may-pipeline-gas-exports-europe-jump-39-calculations-show-2024-06-03
The Houthi tanker story
maritime-executive.com/article/houthi-attack-damages-shadow-fleet-tanker-carrying-russian-oil
UK vs the Shadow Fleet
gcaptain.com/uk-leads-european-initiative-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet
US announces new sanctions
edition.cnn.com/2024/06/12/politics/us-russia-sanction-g7-summit/index.html
Russia ends subsidised mortgage program
afr.com/property/residential/russia-ends-housing-mortgage-subsidy-that-stoked-a-property-boom-20240702-p5jqid
Bond rates per
worldgovernmentbonds.com
Western components in Russian systems:
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine/interactive-summary
themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/10/western-parts-power-russian-missile-that-hit-kyiv-childrens-hospital-ft-a85669
Signing bonuses
edition.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europe/russia-moscow-troops-signing-bonus-intl-hnk/index.html
kyivindependent.com/moscow-authorities-will-begin-paying-city-residents-almost-20-000-signing-bonus-for-joining-army
Samantha Gross and Constanze Stelzenmüller - Europe’s messy Russian gas divorce
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/
Included, referenced or relevant reporting examples
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-s-military-spending-in-2024-estimated-at-140b-report-shows/3081698
reuters.com/markets/europe/soaring-wages-record-low-unemployment-underscore-russias-labour-squeeze-2024-06-05
rferl.org/a/china-eurasia-power-of-siberia-mongolia-putin/33086686.html
Vitaly Yermakov on Russian oil revenues
oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdf
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Also note that I have not independently verified any of the data or reporting presented in this piece, and would particularly note that significant amounts of data released by the Russian Government or related figures has been used which has not been subject to verification or significant scrutiny.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:49 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:09 — The Russian Economy At A Glance
00:09:20 — Investment And Military Production
00:11:24 — Three Drivers
00:14:41 — Rostec And The Russian DIB
00:23:05 — Wartime Expenses
00:28:48 — Hydrocarbons
00:35:12 — Sanctions Pain
00:47:14 — An Economy Overheating
00:58:32 — What Does This Mean?
01:00:27 — The Danger Of Peacetime
01:04:12 — Channel Update
For most of the war Russia has held the initiative, and in 2024 that clearly remains the case along much of the front. But as Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region continues, it's become clear that the Russia may not hold a monopoly on battlefield initiative, and there are questions as to what the duelling offensives, Ukraine in Kursk and Russia elsewhere, are ultimately achieving for both sides.
In this episode, we zoom in on the developments in Kursk and Pokrovsk, look at the escalation of the long-range strike efforts, including the reported development of new systems like Ukrainian jet powered attack drones, and ask how, and if, these current efforts might be shaping the conflict at a strategic level.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading: To be completed by 04/09 due to late release
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:36 — Catching Up
00:02:54 — Kursk Now
00:07:17 — Korenevo
00:09:15 — Glushkovo
00:14:42 — Other Ukrainian Operations
00:17:06 — Russia's Offensive
00:20:48 — Pokrovsk
00:25:25 — Evaluating The Balance
00:32:41 — Long Range Strike Campaign - Ukraine
00:33:30 — Impact
00:44:24 — Enter The Bread Missile
00:52:56 — Risks And The Way Forward
00:56:23 — Making An Impression
00:59:01 — Conclusions
01:00:35 — Channel Update
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
ADP 3-37 Protection (US Army)
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/adp3_37.pdf
FM 3-13.4 (2019) (US Army)
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm3-13-4.pdf
Dr. Phil Haun Attacking Fielded Forces
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-95/jfq-95_70-77_Haun.pdf?ver=2019-11-22-115925-903
Inflatech decoys
inflatechdecoy.com/features
FM 20-3 Camouflage, Concealment, and Decoys (US Army)
archive.org/details/army-fm-20-3-camouflage-concealment-and-decoys
Remy Hemez - Decoys in Land Warfare
warontherocks.com/2021/04/to-survive-deceive-decoys-in-land-warfare
Master Sergeant Jorge L. Rivero (USMC) Decoy Warfare: Lessons and Implication from the War in Ukraine
usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/april/decoy-warfare-lessons-and-implication-war-ukraine#:~:text=Ukrainian%20Use%20of%20Decoys&text=A%20notable%20instance%20occurred%20during,confusing%20the%20advancing%20Russian%20forces.
Magazine depth slide source image
naval-technology.com/news/lockheed-martin-aids-missile-production-capacity-with-us-dod-deal/?cf-view
Featured images of IRIS-T decoy
twz.com/land/ukraines-air-defense-decoys-keep-getting-better
Joint Threat Emitter
northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/joint-threat-emitter-jte
F-16 Decoy image
twz.com/air/inflatable-ukrainian-f-16-decoy-emerges-at-defense-show
Marinovka airbase strike imagery
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/23/7471500/
Telegraph story on S-300 in Crimea
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/22/speedo-wearing-russian-tourists-leak-defence-secrets-twitter
Various reporting on decoy use in Ukraine
businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-fake-wooden-rocket-launchers-russia-waste-missiles-report-2022-8?r=US&IR=T
thedefensepost.com/2023/09/13/ukraine-fake-howitzers-russia
edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-decoy-weapons-intl/index.html
https://x.com/tom_bullock_/status/1521598016221810690
theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/04/a-psychological-weapon-inside-a-ukrainian-factory-making-decoy-kit
https://www.edrmagazine.eu/metinvest-begins-production-of-decoy-military-equipment-that-misleads-the-enemy
en.defence-ua.com/news/russians_have_a_rubber_army_of_inflatable_tanks_which_are_thrown_onto_the_battlefield-5583.html
janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/c4isr/idet-2023-inflatable-leopard-2a4-decoys-sent-to-ukraine
nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/europe/russia-decoy-weapon.html?%5C%5C&_r=1
popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a41043604/ukraine-himars-decoys
reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1d67n5h/ua_pov_the_mass_production_of_m777_artillery
navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/08/russia-deploys-fake-kilo-class-submarine-in-sevastopol
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/03/11/7445807/
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/29/ukraine-decoy-weapons-surge-russia-steps-up-attacks
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/110813652569123568
bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/08/07/plastic-and-wooden-debris-russian-lancet-may-have-hit-fake-iris-t
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/25/russias-inflatable-tanks-are-back-in-action/?sh=70b484fbda68
https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1742605606312100129
wsj.com/world/how-ukraine-tricks-russia-into-wasting-ammunition-799ed95f
armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/czech-made-m270-mlrs-inflatable-decoy-from-inflatech-tricks-russian-strike-forces-in-ukraine
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-painting-false-airplanes-at-airfields/
rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/russia-painted-fake-fighter-jets-its-airfields-new-satellite-images-show-likely-trick-ukraine-not#:~:text=United%20Services%20Institute-,Russia%20painted%20fake%20fighter%20jets%20at%20its%20airfields%2C%20new%20satellite,blowing%20up%20the%20real%20deal
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
03:39 — Historic Deception
08:47 — Decoys 101
16:04 — Decoys In Ukraine
18:57 — Mitigating Responsive Fires
30:39 — Tactical Targets?
38:01 — Russian Decoy Efforts
45:26 — Foreign Militaries
57:38 — Conclusions
58:28 — Channel Update
For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.
On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.
Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (in process of revision - to be revised 04/09):
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update
But while that state has persisted for nearly two and half years at this point, that doesn't mean the situation is static. Ukraine's long range strike capabilities have improved, even as constant Russian attacks have driven major shortages in air defence missiles and systems in Ukraine. Partly in response to those supply challenges, we've seen various acts of creativity and innovation, from the use of FPVs as anti-air systems to the focus on a counter-air campaign.
In this episode, we look at the recent Air Defence efforts in Ukraine, ask how Russia and Ukraine have approached the air defence problem, and what those observations might offer in terms of lines of inquiry for other nations.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
FPV v ISR drone engagements
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-fpv-drones-shot-down-two-reconnaissance-uavs/
Reporting on the use of ultralight aircraft to hunt drones
twz.com/air/ultralight-drone-hunting-planes-now-in-use-in-ukraine
RUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf
Patriot TEL loss image (as others, taking from visually confirmed loss database)
postlmg.cc/Th15s6RY
Russia claiming Patriot TELs hit near Odesa
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21297189
Ukraine receives first F-16
bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwo
Ukrainian claims relating to Patriot TEL decoys
kyivindependent.com/russia-hit-mock-ups-during-recent-attacks-on-airfield-patriot-launchers-ukraines-air-force-says
Included article on the Yak-52 of Odesa
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/14/isnt-it-time-to-shoot-him-down-russians-grow-frustrated-with-ukraines-yak-52-drone-killer
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:14 — Air Defences & The War Of Attrition
00:03:51 — Losses & Replacements
00:10:28 — Assessing Strain
00:12:53 — Ukrainian Usage
00:28:54 — Russia
00:50:54 — Converting Intelligence To Kills
00:59:17 — Conclusions
01:00:56 — Channel Update
Nuclear powered submarines are often among the most complex and expensive systems ever fielded by any military. However, for decades, they (and less expensive conventionally powered designs) have been considered a cornerstone of naval power by many navies because of the unique capabilities they offer.
With new anti-submarine threats emerging, from new sensors to unmanned systems, many nations are now preparing to design and produce a new generation of submarines to answer those threats, leverage new technologies, and keep up with international competitors.
Today, we take a look at that emerging development and construction race.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Unless otherwise noted - platform counts are usually as per MB2024
RUSI - The Yasen-M and the future of the Russian Submarine Force
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/yasen-m-and-future-russian-submarine-forces
GAO - Weapon Systems Annual Assessment 2023
gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106059.pdf
CRS - Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32665.pdf
CBO - Analysis of the USN 2024 shipbuilding plan
cbo.gov/publication/59708#:~:text=The%202024%20plan%20reflects%20the,ships%20(see%20Table%203).
USNI - Lieutenant Commander Patrick Rawlinson, U.S. Navy - Torpedoes: Get Smaller to Think Bigger
usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/march/torpedoes-get-smaller-think-bigger
USNI - Russia’s Kilo-class Submarine: Improved And More Deadly Than Ever
usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/august/russias-kilo-class-submarine-improved-and-more-deadly-ever
Emma Salisbury - The sinking submarine industrial base
warontherocks.com/2023/10/the-sinking-submarine-industrial-base
Reporting on SSN(X)
navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/05/u-s-navy-outlines-the-next-generation-attack-submarine-ssnx-program
CRS on SSN(X)
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11826
Reporting on large-diameter submarines
news.usni.org/2023/11/08/navy-mulling-large-diameter-subs-hulls-after-12-columbias-ssnx-requirements-due-next-year
Submarine industrial base council - VPM
submarinesuppliers.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Virginia-Payload.pdf
Reporting on UK navy Sub-drone teaming
defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/01/uk-navy-to-take-drone-teaming-operations-underwater-with-new-submarine
Japan issues military equipment wishlist
news.usni.org/2023/01/25/japan-issues-military-equipment-wishlist-that-includes-hypersonic-weapons-unmanned-systems
Japan commissions first of new submarine class
defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/10/japan-commissioned-first-of-new-submarine-class
USNI - GAO on shipyards
news.usni.org/2024/05/07/gao-tells-senate-panel-u-s-shipyards-are-major-readiness-concern
TASS - Mozhaisk diesel-electric submarine joins Navy
tass.com/defense/1712845
RIA Novosti on Husky and Kalina
https://vpk.name/en/543537_the-central-design-bureau-rubin-presented-to-the-ministry-of-defense-several-projects-of-submarines-of-the-fifth-generation.html
Restart of Mk48 production
seapowermagazine.org/rear-adm-perry-first-new-production-mark-48-torpedoes-set-for-2022-delivery
Image used for Surrogat-V
https://en.topwar.ru/200663-anpa-surrogat-v-novyj-variant-mnogoobeschajuschej-koncepcii.html
Spearfish Mod 1 goes into service
navylookout.com/spearfish-mod-1-torpedo-goes-into-service-after-final-trials-by-hms-audacious
Very light weight torpedo image
northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/sea/manufacturing-the-very-lightweight-torpedo
USNI - First Columbia Class Ballistic Missile Submarine begins to take shape
news.usni.org/2022/03/08/first-columbia-ballistic-missile-submarine-begins-to-take-shape
Reporting on RAPTOR
twz.com/sea/navy-wants-a-cheap-heavy-torpedo-that-can-be-stockpiled-fast
Arctic Class SSBN concept
navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russia-reveals-radical-new-stealth-missile-submarine/#prettyPhoto
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:05 — The Push For A New Generation
00:07:43 — Next Generation Technologies
00:18:34 — The US Submarine Fleet
00:35:22 — The Russian Federation
00:55:14 — Japan
01:03:53 — Risk & Drawbacks
01:06:01 — Channel Update
Two weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (youtu.be/xF-S4ktINDU)
However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.
So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
One chart shows the Strv 122 appearing twice - this is an error however the data shown is correct in both cases.
I will also note the M113 supply list includes both Benelux and Netherlands lines. These relate to separate efforts for different vehicles in the M113 family. With the Dutch line relating to the YPR-765
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading:
This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up front
The primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases - this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges.
Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:
Germany and Slovakia work to extend repair hub beyond 2024
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/05/17/germany-slovakia-work-to-extend-repair-hub-for-ukraine-beyond-2024
Russia's demilitarisation headline from June 2023
tass.com/politics/1634505
CV-90 supply
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/12/netherlands-to-supply-first-dutch-built-cv90-ifvs-to-ukraine-in-2026/#:~:text=PARIS%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Netherlands%20will%20deliver,the%20government%20said%20June%207.
Ukrainian pilots training on Gripen - 2023
twz.com/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen
Denmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weeks
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-netherlands-say-14-leopard-tanks-will-be-dispatched-to-ukraine-within-weeks/
Spain to deliver HAWK
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/spain-to-reinforce-ukraine-s-air-defense-with-hawk-air-defense-systems-in-september/
France to deliver SPGs
apnews.com/article/france-ukraine-ammunition-howitzers-af44ababeef42de98170660cc1753b77
Ukrainian MoD on equipment restoration
en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_defense_ministry_reports_1500_pieces_of_equipment_returned_to_the_army_including_armored_vehicles-11086.html
Ukraine to create new brigades
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455192/
Ukrainian General on Equipment shortages
economist.com/europe/2024/05/10/ukraine-will-hold-if-it-gets-the-arms-it-needs-says-a-top-general?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1zsdvuygiOycSW9aHdiS0D1K0Wj4xPzTfZhd05V3iy0WFWMH2zwUYLN_g_aem_ASt-eCh1wQ7gs7PUOSlFQaRnNg6sIcYo12LYbZIDVBoIat8HYv683Mj9BVWvMckeggjmbXI8AZV5-Ainv60EBhSD
Finland announcing another aid package - sans details
kyivindependent.com/finland-sends-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-over-200-million
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia
00:06:47 — The Quality Question
00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured
00:19:38 — Losses
00:26:04 — Inputs
00:30:53 — MBTs
00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS
00:45:04 — Aircraft
00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition
01:01:07 — Channel Update
It's a nation of extremes - building nuclear weapons and ICBMs while requiring food aid, and fielding one of the world's largest active duty militaries with a population not that different from the likes of Australia.
With the recent signing of a partnership agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow, I thought it was finally time for a more detailed look at the DPRK and the Korean People's army.
Be aware, this is going to be a slightly weird one.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel estimates are per MB2022 for consistency with other episodes.
US Defense Intelligence Agency - North Korean Military Power 2021
https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/NKMP.pdf
Foreign Language Publishing House (North Korea), Kim Jong Il Biography
marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol1.pdf
marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol2.pdf
marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol3.pdf
marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/bio/biography-vol4.pdf
ATP 7-100.2 NORTH KOREAN TACTICS 2020
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp7-100-2.pdf
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - North Korean Nuclear Weapons 2024
thebulletin.org/premium/2024-07/north-korean-nuclear-weapons-2024
Kim Jong Il - The Songun-based revolutionary line is a great revolutionary line of our era and an ever-victorious banner of our revolution - Talk to the Senior Officials of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (2003)
marxists.org/archive/kim-jong-il/works/The-Songun-Based-Revolutionary-Line-Is-A-Great-Revolutionary-Line-Of-Our-Era-And-An-Ever-Victorious-Banner-Of-Our-Revolution.pdf
Featured articles or images
thediplomat.com/2017/07/north-koreas-new-kn19-coastal-defense-cruise-missile-more-than-meets-the-eye
https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/657089/us-air-force-f-22-raptors-arrive-at-osan-air-base/
latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-north-korea-food-trump-kim-summit-20190309-story.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:43 — The Great Unknowns
00:02:35 — History
00:07:21 — Lesson - The Songun Paradox
00:16:48 — Defining Objectives
00:27:55 — The KPA
00:47:48 — The Air Force
00:53:32 — Naval Component
00:57:31 — Nuclear Program
01:06:07 — The Russia Connection
01:09:25 — Channel Update
Please note one audio correction in the pinned comment regarding BMP-3 losses.
The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands.
In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Given the topic, I think it only right to first acknowledge some of those whose data and work have been used in this work and in the work of others:
Covert Cabal (including his most recent feature on RU tank storage levels)
youtube.com/watch?v=xWCEZUQtUwE
HighMarsed (@HighMarsed)
https://x.com/HighMarsed
Jompy (@Jonpy99)
https://x.com/Jonpy99
AS-22 (@AS22_im) for GBAD counts
https://x.com/AS_22im/status/1811989654746595437
As well as others that I have mentioned in the past or in this video
Plus, of course I need to flag the value of the work of the VC loss database teams behind Oryx, Warspotting and Lostarmor (which I have referenced in several videos as a check against other data sets
Other relevant sources:
Baseline pre-war equipment figures per Military balance for commonality with other episodes
IISS - Russian T-90m Production
iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/06/russian-t-90m-production-less-than-meets-the-eye/#:~:text=These%20figures%20suggest%20an%20average,when%20it%20launched%20its%20assault.
Dr. Jack Watling and Gary Somerville - A Methodology for
Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation
static.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-arms-russia-rusi-op-june-2024.pdf
Dr Jack Watling - In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantages
Russian media on threat posed by Finland in NATO
tass.com/defense/1721741
tass.com/politics/1786405
Russian warning of 'proportional response' to NATO in Finland
tass.com/politics/1775459
Referenced imagery/reporting on Russian presence on Finnish border
kyivindependent.com/russia-has-moved-almost-all-forces-from-finlands-vicinity-to-ukraine-media-report
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/80-of-the-russian-troops-from-the-border-with-finland-were-transferred-to-ukraine/#:~:text=by%3A%20Yle%20magazine-,80%25%20of%20the%20Russian%20troops%20from%20the%20border,Finland%20were%20transferred%20to%20Ukraine&text=Russia%20has%20deployed%20most%20of,with%20the%20Finnish%20newspaper%20Yle.
Featured PZH-2000 image and reporting on hedgehog armour
forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/11/29/hedgehog-armor-saves-ukraines-german-built-super-howitzer-from-russian-kamikaze-drone
T-80 Image compilation
en.defence-ua.com/industries/tanks_overgrown_with_weeds_being_taken_from_storage_in_russia_how_long_it_takes_to_restore_them-3173.html
Reporting on usage of BTR-50
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/20/when-a-70-year-old-russian-btr-50-attacks-ukrainian-troops-its-bad-news-for-the-whole-russian-war-effort
M-46 image included
https://x.com/war_noir/status/1805597359067328659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1805597359067328659%7Ctwgr%5E88434fae75d37e99046b8ec8ecb8e3fd4bf83d11%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.defence-ua.com%2Fanalysis%2Fthe_russian_military_use_rare_korean_130_mm_projectiles_for_the_stalin_era_m_46_gun-10999.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:35 — Losses
00:13:49 — Does Quality Matter?
00:17:59 — Storage
00:37:45 — Production
00:42:30 — Production & Reactivations
00:53:46 — Trend And The Evolving Force
00:57:30 — The Path Forward
01:03:07 — Channel Update
It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine's allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.
Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question....will they improve Russia's position or leave it at greater risk than before.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (WIP) :
Maps of territorial control per Deepstatemap as always
Visually confirmed equipment losses per Oryx
Kharkiv specific figures per @naalsio26
TASS on KCNA releasing the agreement text:
tass.com/politics/1805661
TASS on the Putin 'peace plan' (including the requirement for a Ukrainian withdrawal)
tass.com/pressreview/1804269
Reporting on Results of the Swiss summit
apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-switzerland-war-conference-burgenstock-568cafee5fbe9c3b19b79b041583a5d6
Estonian MoD: Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Reporting on US restricting Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/21/ukraine-firing-range-us-weapons-russia
Reporting on Zelensky removing Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol
bbc.com/news/articles/c7225wrzlpqo
Reporting on Ammunition Supply
reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-gunners-finally-get-shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21
US sending legacy SAMS to Ukraine
reuters.com/world/europe/us-send-ukraine-air-defense-missiles-next-aid-package-officials-2024-06-28
TASS on Russian advance in Kharkiv slowing
tass.com/politics/1797759
Featured Guardian article on Kharkiv
theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/16/russian-soldier-says-army-suffering-heavy-losses-in-kharkiv-offensive
Reporting on the 'buffer zone' motive for the Kharkiv offensive
https://www.politico.eu/article/kharkiv-capture-ukraine-war-russian-invasion-vladimir-putin-buffer-zone-belgorod/#:~:text=And%20I%20have%20said%20publicly,be%20no%20comfort%20to%20Ukrainians.
Chasiv Yar
reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-took-control-district-chasiv-yar-ukraine-2024-07-03
Featured Stoltenberg quote
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227330.htm
The response to the Putin peace offer at the Swiss summit
bbc.com/news/articles/cxee131gejpo
Included Kharkiv image
voanews.com/a/ukraine-says-it-hit-latest-generation-russian-fighter-jet-for-first-time/7648644.html
BBC on Putin's ceasefire offer
bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:43 — The Russian Effort
00:04:38 — Battlefield Dynamics
00:11:32 — Losses & Costs
00:20:10 — Kharkiv And Escalation
00:26:28 — The Korean Connection
00:39:26 — The Long Range Campaign
00:47:59 — Putin's "Peace"
01:00:58 — What Next?
01:02:56 — Channel Update
For all the changes we've seen in weapon systems, the role of humans as the key decision makers when it comes to the use of force has remained.
But what happens when machines develop to the point where they are increasingly able to perceive the battlefield and make that decision for themselves.
As the AI rush plays out, compute becomes cheaper and battlefield pressures play out, nations may face increasing pressure to unleash autonomous systems from their human handlers. So in this episode we discuss the potential of these systems, some of the advantages and pressures that might drive their development...and what the prospect for international regulation might be before the killer robots start to take the field in significant numbers.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (limited as I was ill – may update in coming week)
Submission by the Russian Federation – Approaches of the Russian Federation to the issue of emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systems
docs-library.unoda.org/Convention_on_Certain_Conventional_Weapons_-Group_of_Governmental_Experts_on_Lethal_Autonomous_Weapons_Systems_(2024)/CCW-GGE.1-2024-WP.2.pdf
Final report of the Panel of Experts on Libya established pursuant to Security Council resolution 1973 (2011) – Dated 8 March 2021
documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n21/037/72/pdf/n2103772.pdf?token=xJC2PHgGvDGWD55OB1&fe=true
DoD FY 2024 Budget Estimates – Air Force – RDT&E
https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/documents/FY24/Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation/FY24%20Air%20Force%20Research%20and%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20II.pdf?ver=pYOQLrjX71gVe8w6FCJOwg%3D%3D#page=500
USNI – Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems
news.usni.org/2022/11/17/defense-primer-u-s-policy-on-lethal-autonomous-weapon-systems
CRS report referenced above
documentcloud.org/documents/23310494-if11150?responsive=1&title=1
CRS - International Discussions Concerning Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11294
Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/19/small-drones-will-soon-lose-combat-advantage-french-army-chief-says
IAI – Harpy Anti-Radiation Autonomous Weapon
https://www.iai.co.il/p/harpy
https://www.iai.co.il/sites/default/files/2023-06/HARPY%20Brochure.pdf
Epoch AI piece on GPU performance
epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance
Kangaroos vs Self Driving Cars
theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/01/volvo-admits-its-self-driving-cars-are-confused-by-kangaroos
Javglevskaja & Liivoja - Balancing the lopsided debate on autonomous weapon systems
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/balancing-the-lopsided-debate-on-autonomous-weapon-systems/
Drone image source
spslandforces.com/story/?id=747&h=Swarm-Drones---New-Frontier-of-Warfare
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
00:47 — What Am I Talking About?
03:19 — The Emergence Of Autonomy
07:15 — Human Out Of The Loop Operation
13:33 — Tactical Advantages And Application
22:25 — Pressures For Deployment
32:04 — A Path Towards Regulation?
45:36 — Channel Update
And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon.
In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
For notes on costs and launch estimates - see notes further below.
Also see notes in description regarding nomenclature.
Readings and Sources:
RUSI - Jamming JDAM
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare
VICTUS NOX
https://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsroom/Article-Display/Article/3679056/us-space-force-successfully-concludes-victus-nox-tactically-responsive-space-mi
Q1 upmass by launch provider image from - https://x.com/BryceSpaceTech?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Space X smallsat rideshare program
spacex.com/rideshare
PayloadResearch - The Starship Report
payloadspace.com/starship-report
Futron - -Space Transportation Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-2000 (used as baseline for costs for older systems)
yumpu.com/en/document/read/36996100/space-transportation-costs-trends-in-price-per-pound-to-orbit-
U.S. Army on next-gen satcom
https://www.army.mil/article/249066/army_leverages_innovative_industry_partnerships_for_next_gen_satcom_capabilities
USAF - The U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan (2003)
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA458089.pdf
DARPA contracting for DRIFT
breakingdefense.com/2023/05/darpa-contracts-4-firms-for-drift-radar-imagery-experiments
SpaceX launches NRO payloads
reuters.com/technology/space/spacex-launches-first-satellites-new-us-spy-constellation-2024-05-22
SpaceX 2023 launches at a glance image
spaceexplored.com/2023/12/29/spacex-launches-2023
reuters.com/technology/space/musks-spacex-is-building-spy-satellite-network-us-intelligence-agency-sources-2024-03-16
Included video of the Singapore Satellite Industry Forum 2013
https://x.com/StormSurgeMedia/status/1675932589930979351
Reporting on PRC sat goals
defenseone.com/technology/2024/02/china-building-its-own-starlinkeven-questions-surround-musks-constellation/394453
Satellite imagery for Ukraine
breakingdefense.com/2022/08/iceye-to-supply-ukraine-with-sar-satellite-imagery-via-ukrainian-foundation
The Space Industry After the Russo-Ukrainian War
warontherocks.com/2022/06/sanctions-and-satellites-the-space-industry-after-the-russo-ukrainian-war
Space X losing 40 sats
theguardian.com/science/2022/feb/09/spacex-to-lose-up-to-40-starlink-satellites-after-geomagnetic-storm
Ariane 6
phys.org/news/2024-06-europe-delayed-ariane-rocket-july.html
OneWeb taking the hit for cancelled Soyuz launch
spacenews.com/oneweb-takes-229-million-charge-for-canceled-soyuz-launches
BBC on India moon mission
bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67621968
Note on launch mass and cost per payload estimates.
Calculating the 'cost/price per KG' of a system can be difficult. Different launches involve different margins and additional (e.g. safety or national security) demand driven costs.
The manner in which project and related costs are rolled into launch costs or prices is also inconsistent across sources.
For this video, values should be treated as indicative and are generally based on a compilation of publicly available prices and launch data compiled by Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) - out of necessity, some assumptions have been required (e.g. including estimating payload mass).
Unless otherwise noted, costs are based on prices for commercial launches.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:21 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 — Space Driven Advantage
00:07:10 — The Constellation Revolution
00:14:53 — The Constellation Escalation
00:19:01 — Capacity As The Commodity
00:23:29 — National Launch Programs: Russia
00:32:44 — Let's Talk USA
00:35:19 — SpaceX Path To Dominance
00:49:05 — Starship And Its Implications
00:55:57 — Other Players?
00:59:51 — The Way Forward
And with the first flights of the B-21 Raider now documented, it may also be a race far closer to the finish line.
In this episode I look at the three main members of the strategic bomber club, their next generation bomber programs, and ask both what these systems might mean, and why they seem likely to serve alongside much older, legacy platforms.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Incomplete):
GAO: Weapon System Sustainment Aircraft - GAO-23-106217
gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106217.pdf
CRS: Air Force Next-Generation Bomber Background and Issues for Congress (2009)
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL34406/13
CRS: Air Force B-21 Raider Long-Range Strike Bomber (2021)
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44463/14
Mentioned Videos - The Race for Next Generation Fighters
youtube.com/watch?v=RPrWm6fWuaM
Mentioned Videos - Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure - does strategic bombing ever work?
youtube.com/watch?v=CE6RINU8JLg
Northrop Grumman on the B-21
northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/B-21-Need-To-Know
Janes - H-20 close to first flight
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/chinas-h-20-stealth-bomber-close-to-first-flight
Bronk, J. Russian and Chinese Combat Air Trends (2020)
static.rusi.org/russian_and_chinese_combat_air_trends_whr_final_web_version.pdf
US DoD - Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China (2023)
media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
TASS on the PAK DA
tass.com/defense/1321611
tass.com/defense/1529991
tass.com/defense/1716897
tass.com/defense/1160253
tass.com/defense/1011433
TASS on S-300 and S-400 vs Stealth
tass.com/defense/954905
tass.com/defense/1561277
USAF B-52s fly near Kaliningrad
airandspaceforces.com/usaf-b-52-bombers-baltics-near-russian-territory
The Global Times on H-20
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308604.shtml
Anonymous US official on H-20
breakingdefense.com/2024/04/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-not-really-a-concern-for-pentagon-says-intel-official/#:~:text=In%20March%2C%20a%20Chinese%20military,%2C%20you%20know%2C%20military%20power.
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:54 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:32 — History
00:11:12 — Modern And Future Roles
00:16:53 — The Three Bomber Fleets
00:23:09 — Next Generation Features
00:28:03 — The United States
00:36:03 — China
00:38:58 — Russia
00:46:34 — Bomb Trucks And Force Design
00:50:54 — The US Future Fleet
00:54:53 — The Chinese Future Fleet
00:55:57 — The Russian Future Fleet
01:01:02 — Potential For Future Growth?
01:02:46 — Channel Update
The last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city.
In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Reading and Sources:
Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/
Thanks and credit to @naalsio26 for his geolocation and tabulation of VC losses by region and to warmapper.org for their fortification mapping work
TASS confirming Lapin's appointment to the Leningrad military district
tass.com/defense/1788573
Reporting on the build-up towards the recent offensive:
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-preparing-100000-troops-possibly-summer-offensive-push-2024-03-22
kyivindependent.com/military-russia-gathers-100-000-soldiers-unit-for-alleged-offensive-effort-in-summer-of-2024
Reminder of Popov's previous criticism of Russian military leadership
reuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-dismissed-after-accusing-top-brass-failing-soldiers-2023-07-13
"The Russians simply walked in"
bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo
Ukrainian raids into Belgorod - May 2023
theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/anti-kremlin-militia-freedom-of-russia-legion-overrun-russian-border-village-kozinka
Ukraine Border Guard warning regarding the Sumy region
kyivpost.com/post/33017
Zelensky on shell supply
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage
Reporting on the Recent offensive
kyivindependent.com/explainer-russias-most-recent-offensive-into-kharkiv-oblast
**due to late upload this list will be extended on 27/05**
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:59 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:56 — The Russian Political Context
00:14:01 — The Military Context
00:17:17 — A Quiet Front
00:19:34 — Buildup And Operations
00:32:21 — The Operation Unfolds
00:37:07 — Purpose And Value
00:44:19 — Observations - Russia
00:54:10 — Observations & Recriminations - Ukraine
01:00:56 — What Next?
01:03:04 — Channel Update
But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true.
So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams - Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperable
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/transparent_oceans_report_anu_nsc_2020_0.pdf
Bradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the above
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/advances-in-detection-technology-could-render-aukus-submarines-useless-by-2050/
Brixey-Williams - Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/prospects-for-game-changers-in-submarine-detection-technology/
The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/16145/future-undersea-deterrent-global-survey
Evan Lisman - Non-Acoustic Submarine Detection 2019
ontheradar.csis.org/issue-briefs/non-acoustic-submarine-detection
CRS - Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress
sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R41129.pdf
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
Andrew Davies - Submarines: does Moore mean less?https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/submarines-does-moore-mean-less/
The Atlantic - Where the Whale Things Are
theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/where-the-whale-things-are/471795
Submarines vs surface ships in wargames
afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kir
youtube.com/watch?v=d8Kv4rqR6RQ&t=1s
popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a19784775/gotland-class-sub-ronald-reagan-war-games
ICESat-2 website
icesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov/space-lasers
Squadron Leader Wren & Squadron Leader May - Detection of Submerged Vessels Using Remote Sensing Techniques (1997 ADFJ)
nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/detection.pdf
Reporting on Chinese detection innovations
https://navalinstitute.com.au/china-says-it-has-way-to-better-detect-submarines
Reporting on Indian SLBM test
aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/15/india-says-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-test-is-success
Wake Detection images, reporting and solicitations (incomplete)
forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/16/new-us-navy-airborne-radar-may-spot-submerged-submarines/?sh=584f4ee955d4
Featured Guardian article
theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/will-all-submarines-even-nuclear-ones-be-obsolete-and-visible-by-2040
Navy Lookout - Killing submarines by drone
navylookout.com/killing-submarines-by-drone
USNI News - Sonar equipped drone fleets could be key to future submarine warfare
news.usni.org/2020/03/09/sonar-equipped-drone-fleets-could-be-key-to-future-submarine-warfare
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:34 — What Am I Not Talking About
00:01:50 — History
00:11:49 — What Makes A Submarine?
00:24:08 — Emutopia & Kiwiland
00:28:12 — The Economics
00:34:42 — Vulnerabilities
00:50:03 — Countermeasures And Challenges
00:52:40 — The Submarine Fights Back
00:53:34 — If Not The Submarine
01:00:01 — What Next?
01:01:51 — Channel Update
One of the first images of the Russian invasion were tanks equipped with add-on overhead cages, but in 2024 the most extreme examples of anti-drone protection now include vehicles with entire structures built over them to provide near all round protection.
In this episode, I look at vehicle modification in Ukraine, examine some of the main classes of modification and ad-hoc vehicles we've seen and ask why they exist, and what sort of military value they might have.
Patreon:patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (incomplete due to late release):
CBO - Technical Challenges of the U.S. Army’s Ground Combat Vehicle Program
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA591460.pdf
Special thanks to the Armourer's bench for their work tracking individual turtle tanks in Ukraine
youtube.com/@TheArmourersBench
Likewise thanks to Chris at Task and Purpose for discussing modifications for vehicles in the US Army
youtube.com @Taskandpurpose
Julien Potin - Finabel - Understanding Cope Cages: From Origins to Standardisation
finabel.org/understanding-cope-cages-from-origins-to-standardisation/#:~:text=Considered%20a%20form%20of%20improvised,and%20assessing%20their%20perceived%20impact.
As a throwback - RUSI comment on cages in 2022
rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/russian-tanks-ukraine-are-sprouting-cages
Attribution of Ukrainian MT-LB 100mm modifications to a unit level effort
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/13/7363131/
Russia showing off drone cage options at Army 2023
twz.com/cope-cages-go-mainstream-at-russias-arms-bazaar
Reporting on various modified or ad-hoc vehicles
kyivpost.com/analysis/22054
https://en.topwar.ru/212469-specoperacija-porozhdaet-monstrov-obzor-nashih-mt-lb-s-korabelnymi-artillerijskimi-ustanovkami.html
aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/14/nato-allies-must-do-more-ukraine-running-out-of-ammunition-stoltenberg
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/10/congratulations-russia-youve-invented-an-even-more-dangerous-self-exploding-van/?sh=3d2f464d4f10
businessinsider.com/video-shows-russia-tank-topped-with-ridiculously-tall-cage-2023-10
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/04/the-russians-bolted-1950s-naval-guns-to-armored-tractors-and-produced-nearly-useless-combat-vehicles/?sh=1e9e1b328464
economist.com/science-and-technology/russian-tanks-in-ukraine-are-sprouting-cages/21808191
rferl.org/a/makeshift-armor-ukraine-war-invasion-mad-max/32369222.html
Israeli tanks with cope cages
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defence
popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a45561784/israel-cope-cage-armor
twz.com/israeli-merkava-tanks-get-improved-anti-drone-magnet-bomb-defenses
Kazakh army showing off a tank with a cope cage
youtube.com/watch?v=-yD5qiekgAY
The image of the Libyan Humvee
taskandpurpose.com/news/libya-technical-humvee-90mm-cannon
Drone hunting teams:
economist.com/1843/2024/01/15/on-patrol-with-the-ukrainian-armys-drone-hunters
Drone cages around buildings:
reuters.com/world/europe/russias-bashneft-protects-refineries-with-anti-drone-nets-ria-says-2024-04-19
ERA meme
reddit.com/r/Military/comments/12aqfwi/ukrainian_explosive_reactive_armour_on_leopard_2
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:50 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:25 — Modifications & Motives
00:16:48 — Protection
00:19:21 — Spaced Armour & Cope Cages
00:33:06 — Other Adopters?
00:40:51 — Extreme Evolutions
00:48:14 — Protection - Reactive Armour
00:54:46 — Protection - Improvised
01:01:45 — Channel Update
But with access to Arctic resources as a draw - this unique setting is likely to see far more competition in the coming years. So let's chill a bit, and talk Arctic competition.
Note a correction - In this presentation I refer to Norway handing over presidency of the Arctic Council to Russia in 2021. Norway currently holds the presidency, Russia received it from Iceland in 2021.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant reading (incomplete):
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/commission_purpose.htm#:~:text=The%20purpose%20of%20the%20Commission,nautical%20miles%20(M)%20from%20the
Annex 2
un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/annex2.htm
Reporting on US 2023 claims
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-22/us-claims-huge-chunk-of-seabed-amid-strategic-push-for-resources
Canada Arctic and Northern Policy Framework
rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1560523306861/1560523330587
Canada Arctic National Strategy
sencanada.ca/Content/Sen/Committee/441/POFO/briefs/POFO_SS-1_Brief_ARF_e.pdf
Canada launching fifth AOPS
navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/halifax-shipyard-launches-canadas-fifth-arctic-and-offshore-patrol-ship
USGC Arctic Strategic Outlook and Strategic Outlook Implementation Plans
https://www.uscg.mil/Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategy_Book_APR_2019.pdf
media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/25/2003327838/-1/-1/0/ARCTIC%20STRATEGIC%20OUTLOOK%20IMPLEMENTATION%20PLAN%20508%20COMPLIANT.PDF
CRS - Changes in the Arctic
sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
CRS - Strategic Competition in the Arctic (statement before the House Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security)
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/TE/TE10084/2
Pre-invasion reporting on Russia's Project 10510 icebreakers
navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/05/russias-nuclear-powered-icebreaker-leader-to-become-operational-in-2027
US national strategy for the Arctic
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdf
CRS - Coast Guard PSC Program
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24364408/rl34391-6.pdf
Featured images of Arctic claims:
sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-all-country-s-claims-on-the-arctic-seafloor
Russia's ECS claim
un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/rus02_rev23/20230710ScRusRev2SumWeb.pdf
CIA Icebreaker estimates
cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/icebreakers
Reporting on Project 22220 ships
navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/russian-first-serial-project-22220-nuclear-icebreaker-starts-sea-trials
Featured report on ship needing rescue in the arctic
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/luxury-ship-charging-33-000-a-person-awaits-rescue-in-greenland-s-arctic
Canadian seafloor claims
cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-to-file-arctic-seafloor-claim-this-week-1.2447166
Featured image of platform
medium.com/una-nca-snapshots/the-melting-arctic-a-frontier-for-fossil-fuel-development-be27e98ae783
Ice extent visualisation
climate.nasa.gov/news/3213/2022-arctic-summer-sea-ice-tied-for-10th-lowest-on-record
Reporting on the 2019 speech
nytimes.com/2019/05/06/climate/pompeo-arctic-china-russia.html
cbc.ca/news/politics/pompeo-canada-russia-china-arctic-1.5125293
thearcticinstitute.org/reaction-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-speech-rovaniemi-finland-arctic-council-ministerial-meeting
Denmark claiming North Pole seafloor reporting (2014)
npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/12/15/370980109/denmark-claims-part-of-the-arctic-including-the-north-pole
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
This video is not an authoritative description of international law, please consider seeking legal advice if it is relevant to you or decisions you make.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:09 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:08 — Welcome To The Arctic
00:04:34 — How Do You Claim The Arctic?
00:12:01 — Why Do You Claim The Arctic?
00:17:26 — The Arctic States & Organisations
00:22:25 — Claims And Disputes
00:26:44 — Arctic Operations & Security
00:32:32 — The Players & Assets
00:46:09 — Russia, Breakers & Missed Chances
01:01:41 — Channel Update
In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places.
Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
H.R.815 - Making emergency supplemental appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, and for other purposes.
congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815
Estonian MoD: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
IMF - Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility - Ukraine
imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/03/22/Ukraine-Third-Review-Under-the-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-546741
US DoD on recent USAI and Ukraine Contact Group meeting
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3758274/2-year-anniversary-of-ukraine-defense-contact-group-comes-with-billions-in-new/#:~:text=The%20Ukraine%20Defense%20Contact%20Group%2C%20a%20coalition%20of%20about%2050,assistance%20to%20Ukraine%2C%20Austin%20said.
Reporting on Ukraine's ATACMS usage
theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/17/ukraine-us-missiles-zelenskiy
Article on mentioned Kyiv spending protests:
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-protest-corruption-2b5520cd8b5112f4faa7d87105cf752e
nytimes.com/2023/12/22/world/europe/ukraine-spending-war-russia.html#:~:text=Braving%20rain%20and%20snow%2C%20hundreds,of%20a%20new%20subway%20depot.
Featured demonstration of shifting US policy position on aid:
reuters.com/world/us/us-quietly-shipped-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-2024-04-24
reuters.com/world/europe/us-will-not-send-ukraine-rocket-systems-that-can-reach-russia-says-biden-2022-05-30
Featured article reporting the Pentagon replacement deficit
politico.com/news/2024/03/11/pentagon-weapons-ukraine-congress-00146287
US Congress passing aid
reuters.com/world/us/long-awaited-aid-ukraine-israel-taiwan-poised-pass-us-congress-2024-04-23
voanews.com/a/us-house-passes-aid-package-for-ukraine-israel-after-months-of-struggle/7578232.html
UK sending largest ever package to Ukraine
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/rishi-sunak-promises-uks-largest-ever-military-support-package-for-ukraine
Reporting on Russian offensive
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-avdiivka-c31eb7439d1983532a3f940061efe6e7
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-offensive-putin-8fce40ee08fdcc483f1d0fbe51c44bbe
Reporting on Russian budget passage
apnews.com/article/russia-budget-duma-economy-ukraine-b0e31af0e5891b1dca079d4848e3cd2f
Featured article on Putin's war goals and expectations
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/putin-still-believes-he-can-win-in-ukraine-says-western-assessment
Macron warning Europe cannot rely on the USA
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-europe-china-competition-protectionism-geopolitics/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/macron-says-eu-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-for-its-security
Ukraine needing $3B per month - (reporting, see IMF source for more detail)
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-3-bln-financial-aid-per-month-2024-kyiv-says-2024-02-28/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Feb%2028%20(Reuters),U.S.%20support%20begins%20to%20falter.
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay
00:08:28 — What's In The Package
00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa
00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do
00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example
00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death
00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability
00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic
01:03:21 — Channel Update00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:40 — The 23/24 Delay
00:08:28 — What's In The Package
00:26:09 — Aid And The Usa
00:27:54 — What Aid Will Do
00:30:58 — Working The Ammo Example
00:41:08 — The Valley Of Death
00:48:11 — Economic Sustainability
00:58:08 — The 24/25 Dynamic
01:03:21 — Channel Update
For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.
This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.
What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.
In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Readings and Sources:
Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles – CSIS 2020
missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Iranian-Missiles-Map-2020.jpg
Featured Washington Post piece
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/iran-israel-attack-drones-missiles
CRS – Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs
sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020
irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm-2020.pdf
Guardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quote
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/15/how-will-israel-respond-iran-attack-war
CSIS - missile threat profile on Emad
missilethreat.csis.org/missile/emad
Tweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN
twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053
RUSI - Iran's failed offensive against Israel
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/pulling-punches-irans-failed-offensive-against-israel
Reporting on Israeli strike on Iran
bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68852522
reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19
aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/israeli-missiles-hit-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan-report
nytimes.com/live/2024/04/20/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news
nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/19/iranian-air-defence-systems-activated-israel-launches-strikes-visual-guide
And Iranian warnings regarding it
https://en.irna.ir/news/85444320/Israel-s-biggest-mistake-will-be-to-respond-to-Iran-s-retaliation
Included IRGC statement on limited systems being used
https://t.me/Tasnimnews/295267
Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” response
tehrantimes.com/news/497397/From-Strategic-Patience-to-Active-Deterrence
Featured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issues
reuters.com/world/middle-east/any-air-war-israels-defences-would-trump-irans-high-cost-2024-04-18
reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks-2024-04-14
businessinsider.com/iran-destroyed-mock-israeli-jet-base-missiles-before-airfield-attack-2024-4
bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68811273
timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usual
csis.org/analysis/iran-israel-air-conflict-one-week
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/how-irans-attack-on-israel-was-stopped
theintercept.com/2024/04/15/iran-attack-israel-drones-missiles
Reporting on types of Iranian missiles used
scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3259167/iran-publishes-details-missiles-and-drones-used-israel-attack
Denial of Dimona targeting
tehrantimes.com/news/497310/Iran-says-claims-of-damage-to-Dimona-nuclear-facility-is-a-psychological
https://en.irna.ir/news/85449489/IRGC-spokesman-Claim-on-Dimona-power-plant-being-damaged-in
Suleimani strike reporting (2020)
theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensions
Iran's 2020 missile strikes on US bases
theguardian.com/global/video/2020/jan/08/iran-releases-footage-of-missile-attack-on-us-airbases-in-iraq-video
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Caveats
00:03:50 — The Syria Strike
00:05:56 — The Attacks
00:21:19 — Purpose & Result
00:29:36 — Estimates & Costing
00:34:32 — Winners and Losers?
00:38:54 — Retaliation Options
00:50:55 — The Conflict Continuum
01:00:00 — What Now?
01:00:41 — Channel Update
But with the end of the Cold War came reductions and consolidation - and after the events of early 2022 the US, like many other nations, found itself eager to re-expand its defence industries to meet the demands of the war in Ukraine and changing global security environment.
That provided the context for the release of a defence industry strategy this year -- and today, we're going to talk about it.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
This is obviously very much not financial advice.
Many images on slides are included only for illustrative, comedic or aesthetic purposes and should not be assumed to be related to the corresponding text or audio.
Readings and Sources:
2023 National Defense Industrial Strategy:
businessdefense.gov/docs/ndis/2023-NDIS.pdf
Annual Industrial Capabilities Reports 2021-2016
2021 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/FY2021-Industrial-Capabilities-Report-to-Congress.pdf
2020 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/USA002573-20_ICR_2020_Web.pdf
2019 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/USA000954-20_RPT_Subj_FY19_ICR_07092020.pdf
2018 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2018_AIC_RTC_05-23-2019-Public_Release.pdf
2017 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2017_AIC_RTC_05-17-2018-Public_Release.pdf
2016 - businessdefense.gov/docs/resources/2016_AIC_RTC_06-27-17-Public_Release.pdf
Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency (2018)
media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND-DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF
CRS on the US Defense Industrial Base:
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47751
US DoD Small Business Strategy
media.defense.gov/2023/Jan/26/2003150429/-1/-1/0/SMALL-BUSINESS-STRATEGY.PDF
Defense News reporting on Patriot PAC-3 production figures
defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/#:~:text=Lockheed%20was%20building%20350%20MSE,Camden%2C%20Arkansas%2C%20production%20line.
Reporting source on production rate of 12 Patriot fire units per year
defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-patriot-proved-itself-in-ukraine-and-secured-a-fresh-future
Reporting on call for a third US nuclear shipyard
news.usni.org/2023/10/12/congressional-commission-calls-for-third-nuclear-shipyard-to-bolster-u-s-strategic-forces
US missile production - Arkansas
defensenews.com/industry/2023/03/21/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-driving-growth-in-arkansas
arkansasonline.com/news/2022/oct/05/defense-plant-at-camden-growing
Mentioned Xinhua article
https://english.news.cn/20240228/4b04b67081724ed59cc5f837c7ec38ba/c.htmlhttps://english.news.cn/20240228/4b04b67081724ed59cc5f837c7ec38ba/c.html
US arms hitting record high in 2023
reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-arms-exports-hit-record-high-fiscal-2023-2024-01-29
Source for featured shipyard worker image
news.usni.org/2016/04/06/navsea-on-road-to-recovery-to-rebuilding-naval-shipyard-workforce
US Navy Secretary on ROK shipbuilding capacity
businessinsider.com/us-navy-secretary-floored-by-ally-south-koreas-shipbuilding-2024-4
FRCSW Apprenticeship program
https://frcsw.navair.navy.mil/Public-Affairs-Office/News/Article/2613532/frcsw-apprenticeship-program-offers-artisan-career-path/
https://www.swccd.edu/programs-and-academics/specialty-programs/southwest-regional-apprenticeship-program.aspx
Reporting on US manufacturing jobs
axios.com/2023/08/21/manufacturing-job-boom-semiconductor-renewable-energy
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-28/us-manufacturers-to-temper-investment-pace-after-vibrant-2023
nam.org/manufacturing-in-the-united-states/facts-about-manufacturing-expanded
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-02/stronger-us-factory-payrolls-hint-manufacturing-turning-corner
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:04 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:21 — The Peace Dividend
00:06:58 — Towards Strategy
00:10:12 — Resilient Supply Chains
00:26:17 — Workforce Readiness
00:36:25 — Flexible Acquisition
00:46:09 — Signs Of Progress
00:51:05 — Geopolitical Significance
01:03:19 — Channel Update
In this episode, I look at why drones in Ukraine are becoming more dangerous, at the same time as they are becoming much, much more common.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
I also note that while I describe 10km as a long range for an FPV strike - this is from the point of view of the war as a whole. And FPV strikes significantly beyond the 10km mark have been reported and claimed.
Readings and Sources (temporarily shortened list as I am in transit):
Institute for Science and International Security report on Lancet-3
isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/russian-lancet-3-kamikaze-drone-filled-with-foreign-parts
Lushenko, Paul (LTC, PhD) - The Cult of the Drone: At the two-year mark, UAVs have changed the face of war in Ukraine – but not outcomes
theconversation.com/cult-of-the-drone-at-the-two-year-mark-uavs-have-changed-the-face-of-war-in-ukraine-but-not-outcomes-221397
Illustrative report on COTS sourcing of thermal drones
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-receives-300-mavic-3t-drones/
Reporting on Russian use of Repeater drones
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-increase-the-range-and-stability-of-fpv-drones/
Reporting on Ukraine producing flight controllers
forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/15/ukraine-makes-drone-flight-controllers-breaking-free-of-china/?sh=5edb156a319e
S J Freedberg Jr - The Revolution That Wasn't: how AI drones have fizzled in Ukraine (so far)
breakingdefense.com/2024/02/the-revolution-that-wasnt-how-ai-drones-have-fizzled-in-ukraine-so-far
Reporting on Lancet and its autonomy:
forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/03/01/russian-kamikaze-drone-now-seems-to-identify-its-own-targets/?sh=3dcc52b54b89
forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/02/14/it-looks-like-russias-automated-killer-drones-did-not-work-as-planned/?sh=73498094785e
Reporting on FPV production:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/diy-drones-for-defense-ukrainians-gain-expertise-in-assembling-fpv-drones/#google_vignette
bbc.com/news/technology-65389215
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/since-the-beginning-of-2024-ukraine-has-produced-about-200-thousand-fpv-drones/
kyivindependent.com/fedorov-ukraine-to-produce-1-million-drones-per-year
Featured image of Lancet attack on UA MiG-29
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/19/russias-tiny-drones-are-now-flying-far-enough-to-blow-up-ukrainian-migs-at-their-bases/?sh=28c529d0f9e3
Image source for UA troops setting up antenna
theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2023/nov/07/21st-century-trench-warfare-ukrainian-frontline-in-pictures
Featured article on refinery strikes
reuters.com/business/energy/russian-refineries-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2024-03-25
And the improvised aircraft drone strike
twz.com/news-features/russias-shahed-136-factory-attacked-by-light-plane-converted-into-a-drone
That NZ supermarket meal planning AI I mentioned:
theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/pak-n-save-savey-meal-bot-ai-app-malfunction-recipes
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:40 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:11 — Caveats And Content
00:01:55 — The New Drone Ecosystem
00:05:00 — The Drones Get Better
00:06:26 — Sensors And Night Ops
00:10:43 — Range And The Value Of Reach
00:19:20 — Targeting & AI
00:27:38 — Lethality
00:39:44 — Countermeasures
00:48:43 — Production
00:57:47 — Implications And Projections
01:10:58 — Channel Update
Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending - they are in fact from an IISS publication
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply.
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports:
youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Cover image from:
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
US FY 2023 Arms Transfers – US Department of State
state.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade
US DSCA – Poland JASSM Purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-agm-158b-2-joint-air-surface-standoff-missile-extended-range
Featured Rheinmetall statements and reports
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz
rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/03/2024-03-14-rheinmetall-financial-figures-2023
Reporting on Swiss policy
rferl.org/a/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.html
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-swiss-envoy-defends-ban-on-ammo-exports/a-65416234
reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03
Increase in NATO defence spending
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htmIncrease in global defence spending
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/global-defence-spending-rises-9-per-cent-to-record-22tn-dollars
Reporting on Indian S-400s
nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-aims-to-deliver-two-s-400-air-defence-units-by-2024-end-as-payment-woes-ease-up/articleshow/103072429.cms?from=mdr
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/putins-war-delays-delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron/articleshow/90867785.cms
Reporting on refinery strikes
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-says
Stockpiling
reuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19
Reporting on contract losses
airandspaceforces.com/northrop-grumman-1-56-billion-loss-b-21
Featured image on Red Sea operations
reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-bulk-carrier-number-us-war-destroyers-red-sea-2024-03-09
US interest in RoK shipbuilders
breakingdefense.com/2024/02/in-south-korea-del-toro-courts-major-shipbuilders-to-set-up-shop-in-us
RoK Arms Deliveries
japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/16/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-factory
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-army-orders-100-additional-k9-howitzers
navaltoday.com/2020/05/19/philippine-navys-first-2600-ton-frigate-delivered-sets-sail-for-the-philippines
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/09/poland-south-korea-wrangle-over-big-ticket-weapons-financing
breakingdefense.com/2023/03/can-germanys-big-cats-resist-south-koreas-black-panther-invasion
defensenews.com/air/2024/02/02/south-korea-to-start-mass-production-of-kf-21-fighter-jets
Delivery of Italian built FREMM
navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/first-italian-built-fremm-delivered-to-egypt-reaches-alexandria
JF-17
airforce-technology.com/news/nigerian-air-force-inducts-three-jf-17-thunder-multirole-aircraft
USN supplier bottlenecks (featuring mk48)
defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles
Turkish Exports
defensenews.com/industry/2024/01/08/turkeys-defense-aerospace-exports-rose-by-25-last-year
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard
00:06:57 — The Market Shifts
00:07:58 — The USA
00:13:42 — Europe
00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers
00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers?
00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory
01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes
01:04:56 — Channel Update
Designing a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank.
Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation..
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
At one point I quote a source saying Estonia has 56 howitzers, the correct total of 18 and 36 is 54
Readings and Sources (incomplete, to be filled out):
Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel figures are usually as per Military Balance 2024
Reference for corruption perception index data is transparency international, e.g.:
transparency.org/en/countries/estonia
The State Defence Concept of Latvia 2023
https://www.mod.gov.lv/sites/mod/files/document/The%20State%20Defence%20Concept%202023-2027.pdf
Estonia Defence Forces Annual Report 2022
issuu.com/sodur/docs/annual_report_22_issuu
Estonian Ministry of Defence - Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Perun - Defence strategy for small nations
youtube.com/watch?v=EVqGEtPj0M0
CRS: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania: Background and U.S.-Baltic Relations
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46139
Shiapak & Johnson - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html
Jonathan Masters - How NATO will change if Finland and Sweden become members
cfr.org/in-brief/how-nato-will-change-if-finland-and-sweden-become-members
Reporting on Lithuania's defence spending plans
reuters.com/world/europe/lithuania-pledges-spend-least-3-gdp-defence-2024-03-21
Estonia's foreign minister warns the Baltics have 3-4 years to prepare for a Russian test of NATO
apnews.com/article/poland-estonia-russia-nato-putin-bf0bc50554182f9c9bd5ea9b1a5cf2ef
NATO navies hold Baltic Sea exercise
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_218241.htm?selectedLocale=en
Henri Vanhanen - NATO and Northern Europe: No Longer the Forgotten Flank
carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/19/nato-and-northern-europe-no-longer-forgotten-flank-pub-91297
Featured Reuters report on Baltics seeking more NATO presence
reuters.com/world/europe/baltic-states-want-more-nato-they-wont-get-all-they-seek-2022-06-15
Featured report on Danish artillery donations
kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-donate-all-its-artillery-to-ukraine-says-pm
Reporting on Estonian artillery donations
thedefensepost.com/2023/01/24/estonia-sending-howitzers-ukraine
rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-artillery-zaporizhzhya-155mm-howitzer-estonia-american/32199208.html
Baltic and Polish leaders visiting Ukraine April 2022
reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-poland-president/visiting-kyiv-leaders-of-poland-and-baltic-states-condemn-russia-idUKKCN2M50GC
https://www.president.pl/news/presidents-of-poland-baltic-states-visit-kyiv,52353
Source of image used for slide on Estonia's concerns about protracted Russian occupation
swarajyamag.com/world/estonia-pm-kaja-kallas-estonia-would-be-wiped-from-map-under-existing-nato-security-plan-for-baltic-states
Featured article on Czech-led ammunition supply efforts
defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/20/czech-led-bulk-ammunition-buy-for-ukraine-picks-up-steam
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:22 — History
00:13:57 — Strategic Position
00:20:06 — Perceived Threats & Objectives
00:34:10 — Armed Forces & Approach
00:43:14 — Collective Defence
00:54:33 — Finland & Closing The Door On The Baltic Option
00:58:25 — The Baltic States And Ukraine
01:04:19 — Channel Update
In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the source
sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Bronk, J - The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
Cranny Evans, S - Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
MBDA order and delivery figures
breakingdefense.com/2024/03/dassault-thales-mbda-bank-extraordinary-2023-sales-with-more-projected
Cover image from:
cnbc.com/2022/09/25/winters-approach-sets-the-clock-ticking-for-ukraine-and-russia.html
Kuwait receiving upgraded Abrams
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/kuwait-receives-first-m1a2k-tank
Reporting on France becoming the number 2 exporter
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-overtake-russia-world-weapons-exporter/#:~:text=RUSSIA'S%20FALL%20AND%20FRANCE'S%20RISE,major%20arms%20from%202019%2D23.
france24.com/en/europe/20230802-france-may-soon-overtake-russia-as-the-world-s-no-2-arms-exporter
CRS - Russian Arms Sales and Defense Industry
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46937#:~:text=Despite%20its%20global%20presence%2C%20Russia,of%20Russian%20arms%20since%202016.
Russian media on Indian Su-30 program
https://sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.html
CSIS - Sellers Remorse: The Challenges Facing Russia's Arms Exports
csis.org/analysis/sellers-remorse-challenges-facing-russias-arms-exports
Russia delivers third S-400 system to India
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russia-delivers-third-s-400-system-to-india#:~:text=India%20signed%20a%20USD5.,by%20the%20end%20of%202023.
RAND - is Su-75 a case of vapor marketing?
rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/01/is-russias-su-75-checkmate-aircraft-a-case-of-vapor.html
Reporting on claimed Russian buybacks from Myanmar
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Russia-buying-back-arms-parts-exported-to-Myanmar-and-India?s=08
General Reporting on Russian production output
tass.com/defense/1526773
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners#img-5
Russian-Iranian cooperation
reuters.com/world/russia-iran-ties-have-reached-new-level-russian-defence-minister-2023-09-20
Russian Reporting on prospects of Su-35 production in PRC
tass.com/russia/816393
US weapon orders surge
politico.com/news/2024/01/29/us-foreign-arms-sales-russia-china-00138390
US to sell F-35 to Greece
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-27/us-to-sell-40-f-35-fighter-jets-to-greece-gift-other-aircraft'
Reporting on Singapore getting its German Type 218SGs
defensenews.com/naval/2023/07/21/singapores-navy-receives-first-of-four-new-german-built-submarines
France SPG production
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-will-produce-dozens-of-caesar-acs-for-ukraine/
Russia not exporting lancets due to domestic demand
reuters.com/world/europe/russia-not-exporting-lancet-drones-domestic-demand-high-tass-2023-11-15/#:~:text=%22The%20Lancet%20is%20also%20receiving,no%20export%20permit%20documentation%20yet.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
02:00 — Caveats & Notes
02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse
14:57 — What is Driving the Decline?
27:15 — Filling the Void?
35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter
45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector?
55:15 — Channel Update
It also operates some with more...complex...stories.
In this episode we look at US efforts to develop a new generation of surface warships, including the LCS and Zumwalt Destroyers, and ask both what went wrong with these incredibly expensive projects and what we might be able to learn from them.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
In keeping with the above, nothing in this presentation should be taken to be an allegation of wrongdoing or any particular act or inaction by any individual or entity.
Sources have not been validated.
Readings and Sources:
US DOD - Selected Acquisition Report on LCS Mission Modules
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_MM_SAR_2021.pdfv
US DOD - Selected Acquisition Report - Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_LCS_SAR_2021.pdf
LCS Mission Modules Program - CAPT Gus Weekes Program
https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Portals/103/Documents/Exhibits/SAS2021/SAS2021-LittoralCombatShipMissionModules.pdf
CAPT Robert Powers (USN Retired) - Birth of the Littoral Combat Shipusni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012/september/birth-littoral-combat-ship
Quadrennial Defence Review - 2001
history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/quadrennial/QDR2001.pdf?ver=AFts7axkH2zWUHncRd8yUg%3d%3d
CRS - Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Program
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33741/257
Navy DD(X) Destroyer Program: Background and Issues for Congress (2004
)https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA472596.pdf
CRS - Navy DDG-51 and DDG-1000 Destroyer Programs
sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32109.pdf
CBO - The Cost of the Navy's New Frigate (features LCS lead ship cost graph)
cbo.gov/publication/56675
House Armed Services Committee - Projection forces subcommittee - 19 July 2005 commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has200300.000/has200300_0f.htm
LCS breaking down on deployment
defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/28/another-littoral-combat-breaks-down-on-deployment
thediplomat.com/2016/08/dropping-like-flies-third-us-navy-littoral-combat-ship-out-of-action
AGS being placed in storage
navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/05/us-navy-discloses-155mm-advanced-gun-systems-preliminary-fate/v
AGS Rounds
news.usni.org/2016/11/07/navy-planning-not-buying-lrlap-rounds
Reporting on Zumwalt
defensenews.com/naval/2021/03/25/what-should-become-of-the-zumwalt-class-the-us-navy-has-some-big-ideas
LCS Decommissioning
news.usni.org/2023/09/27/navy-to-decommission-littoral-combat-ships-uss-little-rock-uss-detroit-this-week
navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/us-navy-commissions-one-lcs-decommissions-two
US navy requests to decommission ships early
defensenews.com/naval/2023/03/13/why-the-us-navy-wants-to-retire-eight-ships-early
USN Considers non LCS options for MCM ships
defensenews.com/naval/2023/01/10/navy-considers-non-lcs-option-for-mine-countermeasures-in-5th-fleet
Lieutenant Commander Steven Wills (USN Retired) - Why the LCS has been slow to deploy
usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2019/august/why-lcs-has-been-slow-deploy
SC-21 program page (archived)
web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/http://sc21.crane.navy.mil
Featured report on LCS and the Red Sea
telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/01/25/us-navy-red-sea-houthi-lcs-combat-ship-middle-east
LCS Middle East Deployments
news.usni.org/2023/01/11/navy-wants-independence-lcs-in-bahrain-for-mine-countermeasure-mission
DDG(X) Design Contract Reporting
naval-technology.com/news/us-dod-renews-ddgx-design-contract-as-delivery-time-lengthens
LCS MCM package reporting
news.usni.org/2023/05/12/navy-talks-details-on-lcs-mine-countermeaures-mission-package
Emma Salisbury - Lessons from the Littoral Combat Ship
warontherocks.com/2021/11/lessons-from-the-littoral-combat-ship
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:58 — Evolution of The US Navy
00:07:15 — LCS - The Beginning
00:15:29 — LCS - The Issues
00:23:10 — LCS - Lessons
00:34:59 — LCS - The Redemption
00:39:28 — DD(X) - The Beginning
00:46:02 — DD(X) - Lessons
00:50:55 — DD(X) - Redemption
00:56:15 — Reflection
01:05:47 — Update
But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.
By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Ukraine territory control maps generated using deepstatemap.live
Covert Cabal on Russian artillery storages:youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw
Previous videos referred to:
Russian Defence Production: youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs
How Wars End: youtu.be/PnvJzup8i-c
Political Endurance: youtu.be/pIKiFAKMoi0
Commodity pricing graphs generated using tradingeconomics.com
Estonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat:
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Sam Cranny-Evans
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
Dr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles – The Russian Way of War
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf
Featured and example reporting on covered issues:
Medvedev and Russian wargoals:
cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russia-signals-it-could-try-to-seize-kyiv-again-at-some-point.html
https://ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928899095.html?in=l
kyivindependent.com/medvedev-russia-will-take-more-regions-of-ukraine
Russian Defence Production:
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
Putin on Wargoals in 2024
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/14/russias-goals-in-ukraine-unchanged-putin-says#:~:text=Fielding%20questions%20from%20the%20public,invaded%20Ukraine%20in%20February%202022.
Russia/Ukraine has already won/lost and/or can't win/lose:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/
nytimes.com/2024/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.htmltime.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger
aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/hungarys-orban-says-poor-ukrainians-cannot-win-the-warRussian
Macron 'not ruling out' troops being sent to Ukraine
reuters.com/world/europe/paris-conference-belie-doom-gloom-ukraine-elysee-says-2024-02-25
Sweden joining NATO
bbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893
reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdle-2024-02-26
Defence Production & the 800,000 rounds of Petr Pavel:
kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-ban-on-ammunition-exports/#:~:text=%22All%20contracts%20for%20the%20export,the%20purpose%20of%20defending%20Europe.%22
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/1/7444611/
Morozov & Avdiivka
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/pro-war-russian-blogger-who-revealed-huge-avdiivka-losses-dies-by-suicide
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:48 — The Phases Of War
00:05:24 — Battlefield Trends And Adaptations
00:10:15 — Objectives And "Winning"
00:16:27 — Economics
00:25:18 — Production
00:40:52 — Losses And Pipelines
00:53:06 — Force Quality And Issues
01:00:08 — Reflecting & Projecting
01:02:48 — Channel Update
Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.
And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below.
Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (partial as travelling without full access to my research notes):
RUSI Biography – Justin Bronk
rusi.org/people/bronk
RUSI – Bronk, Reynolds & Watling (2022) – The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf
RUSI - Bronk (2022) - The mysterious case of the missing Russian air force
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force#:~:text=On%20the%20fifth%20day%20of,its%20fixed%20wing%20combat%20aircraft.
RUSI - Bronk (2020) - Russian and Chinese air combat trends
static.rusi.org/russian_and_chinese_combat_air_trends_whr_final_web_version.pdf
RUSI - Watling and Reynolds (2024) - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Featured A-10 article
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12
The described A-10 meme (not fully accurate it must be said)…
reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/n11iy8/a10_fanboys_be_like_ignore_the_f14d
Featured article on F-16 training
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-open-f16-training-center-ukraine-pilot/
MiG-31 accident
businessinsider.com/videos-russian-mig-combat-jet-burst-flames-before-crashing-lake-2023-4
Example of how widely reporting on Russian FF claims spread:
newsweek.com/russia-air-defense-threat-putin-air-force-50-1861117
Featured image of PAC-3 manufacturing
talkbusiness.net/2020/05/more-patriot-missiles-to-be-produced-in-camden
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own – and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Are We Talking About?
00:01:43 — Prof. Justin Bronk
00:02:08 — The Evolving Air War
00:05:14 — The GBAD Transition
00:08:18 — KIT Systems
00:12:38 — Patriot Ambush Tactics
00:18:12 — Friendly Fire And The A-50
00:25:15 — A-10
00:29:39 — Sustainability
00:59:48 — Closing Thoughts & The US Role
01:01:28 — An Open Mic On Risks And Issues
01:07:50 — Creativity & Material Limits
01:09:42 — Channel Update
While technology has continued to evolve, most weapon systems modern militaries use operate on old principles. A artillery piece is a world removed from a Napoleonic cannon, but the idea of detonating a charge behind a projectile in a tube in order to propel it in the direction of something you don't like - that remains the same.
For decades, Governments have also been investing in trying to develop systems that operate in very different ways - including directed energy weapons like lasers and High Powered Microwave weapons (HPM). And for decades - very little emerged in terms of deployable, destructive systems.
But on a battlefield increasingly dominated by cheap and precise threats such as loitering munitions, FPV drones or naval kamikaze drones, there is more pressure than ever for forces to leverage recent technological developments to turn concepts into functional, deployable tools for their armed forces.
In this episode, we look at the concepts behind Directed Energy Weapons, ask what advantages and disadvantages they might have compared to more conventional equivalents, and what how militaries might use them going forward.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I have also not sought to provide a fulsome explanation of the science behind the operation of HEL and HPM systems. For those interested, I would strongly recommend further reading and I will include some potential sources in the source list below.
Relevant Reading (to added 20/02/2024 once I have access to my research notes and materials again)
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:01:10 — What Am I Talking About?
00:12:27 — The Directed Energy Promise
00:17:42 — Ground Applications
00:25:48 — Naval Applications
00:40:51 — Aerospace Applications
00:47:00 — Countermeasures and limitations
01:02:10 — Development challenges and risks
01:06:43 — Channel Update
Over the course of several decades, the PLA has shifted from a primarily ground combat force with a large stock of outdated equipment, to one that is increasingly capable of projecting power and holding targets at risk over longer and longer distances.
Having discussed the PRC's military budget, industry, rocket force and other critical drivers, today I finally want to give an overview of the PLA's changing capabilities and ask the question - what kind of force has China's modernisation process created, and how may it continue to evolve going forward?
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
China's National Defence in a New Era (2019)
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
US DOD - Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2023
media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
The PLA Strategic Support Force: Future-proofing China's Military - Cosmo Cao
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-pla-strategic-support-force-future-proofing-chinas-military/
China's Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era - Costello & McReynolds, National Defence University
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/china-perspectives_13.pdf
Russian and Chinese Combat Air Trends: Current Capabilities and Future Threat Outlook - Bronk (2020)
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/whitehall-reports/russian-and-chinese-combat-air-trends-current-capabilities-and-future-threat-outlook
CRS-- China's military, the PLA - 2021
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46808
China Naval Modernisation: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities - Background and Issue for Congress
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
The Chinese Military Speaks to Itself, Revealing Doubts - Dennis Blasko
warontherocks.com/2019/02/the-chinese-military-speaks-to-itself-revealing-doubts
China Expanding YY-20 fleet
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/china-expanding-yy-20-aerial-refueller-fleet
The Creation of the PLA Strategic Support Force and its Implications for Chinese Military Space Operations - Pollpeter, Chase & Heginbotham (2017)
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2058.html
The U.S. China Military Scorecard - RAND - 2017
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html
Learning Warfare from the Laboratory - China's progression in wargaming and opposing force training - Kania, Burns & Caslin
understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Learning%20Warfare%20from%20the%20Laboratory%20ISW%20September%202021%20Report.pdf
Mentioned reporting of Chinese Type 99 usage during wargaming
http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/WeaponryEquipment/News_209182/9409397.html
2007 Reporting on ASAT test
theguardian.com/science/2007/jan/23/spaceexploration.china
Type 59 image (2018)
http://eng.mod.gov.cn/focus/2018-03/16/content_4806946_3.htm
J-16 EW Version
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/airshow-china-2021-chinese-air-force-unveils-ew-variant-of-j-16-multirole-fighter-aircraft
PLA Operational Concepts - Burke,
rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA300/RRA394-1/RAND_RRA394-1.pdf
Featured Economist article
economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/xi-jinping-worries-that-chinas-troops-are-not-ready-to-fight
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Featured Image of multinational exercises
thediplomat.com/2016/05/us-japan-south-korea-plan-missile-defense-exercise-on-rimpac-2016-sidelines
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:00 — Strategy And Strategic Environment
00:13:11 — The Forces
00:13:35 — The Strategic Support Force
00:17:59 — The Space Systems Department
00:18:49 — Network Systems Department
00:21:10 — PLA Ground Forces
00:27:51 — PLAAF (Air Force)
00:36:15 — PLAN (Navy)
00:49:22 — The Rocket Force
00:53:09 — Shortfalls, Trends & Perspectives
01:05:48 — Channel Update
But situational awareness doesn't have the same value if it can't be connected to a weapon system capable enough to leverage it - which the air-to-air missile comes in.
In the past decade, multiple nations have fielded new missiles that challenge or eclipse existing US missiles like the AIM-120. In this episode we're going to look at some of those systems, ask how the US fell behind in the range game, and ask what the plan might be to equip the USAF with tools to reclaim its previous advantage in the air.
Note, this video is a continuation of the series on next-generation air combat, including:
The Race for 6th Generation Fighters:
youtu.be/RPrWm6fWuaM
The Race for Air Combat Drones:
youtu.be/1-0L5Wv86fQ
AMRAAM D
twz.com/43483/latest-amraam-air-to-air-missile-aims-to-keep-pace-with-china
AIM-260 Reporting
iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2019/10/aim-260-missile-us-air-force
defenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/will-americas-next-long-range-air-air-missile-match-chinas/160771
Cancellation of past potential AMRAAM replacement
flightglobal.com/usaf-cancels-amraam-replacement/104054.article
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Notes or Reading (more to be added:
US Senate armed services committee transcript - Tuesday, May 2, 2023
armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/23-41_05-02-2023.pdf
Professor Justin Bronk - Russian and Chinese Combat Air Trends: Current Capabilities and Future Threat Outlook
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/whitehall-reports/russian-and-chinese-combat-air-trends-current-capabilities-and-future-threat-outlook
Professor Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Dr Jack Watling - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf
RTX featuring the Peregrine on their web page
rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/air/air-to-air-missiles/air-to-air-missiles
Reporting on 2020 AFRL solicitation in relation to long range AAM technologies
airandspaceforces.com/air-force-seeking-faster-longer-range-air-to-air-missiles
Reporting on next generation missile systems:
twz.com/45057/the-air-force-plans-to-test-launch-a-mystery-new-air-to-air-missile
twz.com/classified-aim-260-air-to-air-missiles-to-arm-future-air-force-drones
airandspaceforces.com/jatm-start-production-collaborative-combat-aircraft
breakingdefense.com/2019/09/raytheons-new-peregrine-missile-smaller-faster-more-maneuverable
airandspaceforces.com/article/fifth-generation-weapons
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
twz.com/15692/the-pentagon-is-quietly-developing-an-next-generation-long-range-air-to-air-missile
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:56 — History & The Missile Evolution
00:06:38 — The Future Air War Concept
00:17:41 — What Makes A Good Missile?
00:26:42 — The US Inventory
00:30:10 — Russia
00:36:03 — PRC
00:44:58 — European Competitors
00:51:05 — And Before We Get To The USA
00:52:28 — The New Programs
01:00:59 — Bringing This Together
01:04:21 — Channel Update
Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front.
In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Putin on intention to achieve all military goals
tass.com/politics/1723935
theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/19/zelenskiy-and-putin-each-vow-to-press-on-to-victory-in-ukraine-war
Credit to @naalsio26 for localising visually confirmed losses
Russian military size increases
reuters.com/world/europe/russia-increases-maximum-size-armed-forces-by-170000-servicemen-2023-12-01
reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-increase-size-russian-armed-forces-2022-08-25
Shoigu giving Shoigu numbers
tass.com/defense/1723781
Putin giving Putin numbers
kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-500-000-new-recruits-in-russian-army-over-last-six-months
The lostarmor site referenced for loss analysis
lostarmour.info/minusov-net
The Bradley engagement mentioned
telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-disabled-russian-tank
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/video-games-helped-ukrainian-bradley-gunner-win-duel-with-russian-t-90m-tank
Ukraine Su-34 claim
bbc.com/news/world-europe-67809239
Jan 24 missile attacks
aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/ukraine-says-russia-launched-barrage-of-missile-attacks-nationwide
December 23 missile attacks
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-aerial-attack-missiles-drones-fe3fb596cdea0035573a6a677f17070c
DPRK shipments to Russia
japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/11/world/politics/north-korea-missiles-russia-seoul
Featured image of Koalitsiya
defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-its-new-152mm-self-propelled-gun-to-ukraine
Jamestown foundation on Russian military recruitment
jamestown.org/program/russias-crisis-of-restoring-manpower
Example of volunteer units signing contracts
themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/20-russian-volunteer-units-sign-military-contracts-defense-ministry-a81588
Reference to UA casualty estimates
reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12
Ropucha getting hit
navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/ukraine-strikes-russias-project-775-large-landing-ship-in-crimea
Ukraine drone strikes
reuters.com/world/fire-erupts-russias-novatek-baltic-sea-terminal-after-explosions-heard-2024-01-21
aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/24/drones-strike-deep-in-russia-as-medvedev-threatens-ukraines-existence
reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-hit-rosneft-refinery-russia-source-2024-01-25/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Jan%2025%20(Reuters),Ukrainian%20source%20said%20on%20Thursday.
cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-russian-oil-depot-ukrainian-drone-attack-klintsy
Reporting on UA EW
businessinsider.com/ukraine-hit-turning-point-electronic-warfare-capabilities-isw-russia-missiles-2024-1
Reporting on possible incursion into Polish airspace
theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/29/russia-launches-huge-wave-missile-strikes-ukraine
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:47 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:20 — The Winter Offensives
00:10:10 — Equipment Losses
00:20:27 — Adaptations And Observations
00:27:17 — The Black Sea Theatre
00:33:25 — The Air War
00:50:18 — Manpower And Mobilisation
01:01:39 — Notes On Resupply
01:06:37 — Conclusion
01:07:08 — Channel Update
Earlier this month, Bloomberg carried an article which included claims about corruption in the PRC's Rocket Force .
Those claims have gotten plenty of attention – so today, I want to look into corruption and anti-corruption campaigns in the PRC, some of the claims from the article, how we might interpret them, and what all this might mean for the PLA and the region
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
The Bloomberg article:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Nuclear Notebook – PRC
thebulletin.org/premium/2023-03/nuclear-notebook-chinese-nuclear-weapons-2023
Military and Security Developments involving the PRC – 2022
media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
2020 version
media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF
Yang, Milanovic, Yaoqi Lin – Anti-corruption campaign in China: An empirical investigation
https://wid.world/document/anti-corruption-campaign-in-china-an-empirical-investigation-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2023-05/
China’s national defence in the New Era
https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html
Reporting on the Rocket force removals:
reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30
scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3246738/china-removes-nine-pla-generals-top-legislature-sign-wider-purge
reuters.com/world/china/china-appoints-dong-jun-new-defence-minister-state-media-2023-12-29
Deng & Wei – Measuring Corruption in China
project-syndicate.org/commentary/study-examines-off-the-book-incomes-of-chinese-officials-by-yongheng-deng-and-shang-jin-wei-2023-09
Chinese media on Xu Caihou and surrounding cases
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868162.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868273.shtml
reuters.com/article/us-china-politics-corruption-idUSKCN0J412Q20141120
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/889506.shtml
edition.cnn.com/2024/01/05/china/china-xi-military-purge-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
The party-military relationship
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/875606.shtml
Reporting on anti-corruption in China
reuters.com/world/china/china-defence-ministry-we-will-crack-down-every-corrupt-official-2023-08-31
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-12/china-s-military-vows-no-tolerance-in-crackdown-on-corruption?embedded-checkout=true
businessinsider.com/china-punished-over-600000-officials-amid-xis-corruption-clampdown-2022-1
Peng Wang – Military corruption in China: The role of Guanxi in the buying and selling of military positions
jstor.org/stable/26291585
Featured article on Russian corruption
businessinsider.com/ukraine-anti-corruption-minister-thanks-russian-military-for-being-corrupt-2022-3
China deploying to Gulf of Aden
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202309/1298098.shtml
Chinese military raises pay
scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2137008/china-raises-pay-pensions-trimmed-down-military
nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-does-china-pay-its-military-generals-so-little-197554
RAND – US China military scorecard
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html
Naval exercises
reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-led-navy-exercise-starts-with-philippines-observing-first-time-2023-11-11
FAS – Chinese silo construction
fas.org/publication/china-is-building-a-second-nuclear-missile-silo-field
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
All contentions of fact presented in this presentation should be assumed to be subject to be qualified by the words "reportedly" "allegedly" or both depending on context. In some cases, these words have been omitted from the audio for reasons including a need to keep the presentation understandable and suitable for its primary purpose - entertainment.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:46 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:10 — PRC Military Modernisation
00:04:01 — Corruption And Purges
00:20:15 — The Bloomberg Claims
00:30:54 — The Silo Thing - And Implications
00:44:42 — Solid Fuel Issues?
00:48:25 — Readiness
00:56:21 — Regional Developments And Strategy
00:59:38 — Conclusion
01:01:12 — Channel Update
As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.
So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant sources and reading:
NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm
Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges
carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-military-needs-bold-reforms-to-overcome-shrinking-population-pub-84822
UK Defence Personnel Statistics
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdf
gov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-defence-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022
gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2023
Mediazona Russian KIA count
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
US Army Demographics:
https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2022/11/15/62a2d64b/active-component-demographic-report-october-2022.pdf
ADF demographics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/service-australian-defence-force-census/latest-release
ROK conscript mobile phone trial
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190212000549&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8n11KMdPpIkEaFVDCi5PtwNy2Ko3jEL5XjBnV2H5mYaE9MuYTamttOQdWQqXNx6CsbLVuW
US misses recruiting goal:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/02/army-misses-recruiting-goal-by-15000-soldiers
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/#:~:text=Ashish%20Vazirani%20said%20that%20during,recruiting%20environment%2C%22%20he%20said.
defenseone.com/policy/2023/09/army-recruiting-better-last-year-still-short-goal-officials-say/390357
news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-say
father and son deploying together
military.com/daily-news/2013/05/09/national-guard-father-son-deploy-together.html
David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:
warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20the%20recruiting,likely%20to%20be%20even%20worse.
CDC data
cdc.gov/physicalactivity/resources/unfit-to-serve/index.html
cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.html
US Army recruiting reforms:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/10/03/after-missing-goal-again-army-announces-sweeping-recruiting-reforms
https://www.army.mil/article/270458/army_announces_transformation_of_its_recruiting_enterprise
https://www.army.mil/article/270692/army_details_five_ways_to_bring_recruiting_into_21st_century
UK medical classifications 1914
eehe.org.uk/?p=25030
Institutional trust levels:
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/04/trust-in-the-military-exceeds-trust-in-other-institutions-in-western-europe-and-u-s
USAREC:
https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/
Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia
jamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteers
Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions
themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509
USAF pilot poaching
airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2016/03/26/air-force-hopes-to-head-off-the-poaching-of-its-pilots
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 — History
00:07:57 — The Funnel
00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 — Driving Propensity
00:27:33 — Retention
00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 — Looking Abroad
00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 — Conclusion
01:05:29 — Channel Update
So today, as a way to welcome 2024, I'm answer your questions for a change:
What are the modern roles for tactical nuclear weapons?
How have Special Operations Forces been used in Ukraine?
Would I rather fight a cruiser sized duck or a thousand duck sized cruisers?
What can I tell you about the Perun audience?
And how did this "Perun" bloke end up talking about Defence Economics anyway?
Hope you enjoy this special episode, and we'll be back to regular content next week.
Gaming channel cross promotion:
youtube.com/channel/UCPYJiiMoA0yOMHI-aiB44RQ
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading (somewhat abbreviated as it's a more casual episode)
Relevant RUSI reports as previously cited, beginning with:
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
Mentioned report on Soviet Nuclear planning 1970s
archives.gov/files/declassification/iscap/pdf/2012-090-doc1.pdf
CBO report on nukes - 1977
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA593862.pdf
Politico reporting on US nukes in Europe
politico.com/news/2022/10/26/u-s-plans-upgraded-nukes-europe-00063675
Featured "USNEWS" list of countries with strong militaries
usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/strong-military
Report on the spending of USA Ukraine aid within the USA
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost
Report on boosting LRASM production
airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-martin-double-lrasm-production
Michael Frankel, James Scouras & George Ullrich - Nonstrategic nuclear weapons at an inflection point:
https://www.jhuapl.edu/sites/default/files/2022-12/NonstrategicNuclearWeapons.pdf
Looking Beyond the War: Planning for Ukraine's Reconstruction
rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/09/looking-beyond-the-war-planning-for-ukraines-reconstruction.html
Source report for featured JASSM image
en.defence-ua.com/news/arms_for_ukrainian_f_16_jassm_missiles_of_370_km_range_in_priority_forbes-7713.html
Featured report on Molotov Cocktails
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/ukraine-google-molotov-cocktails-resistance-russia
Reporting on Hungary and Ukraine aid
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/15/hungary-blocks-54bn-eu-financial-aid-for-ukraine
WP reporting on the use of Spetsnaz units
washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/14/leaked-documents-russian-spetsnaz
Comments & Caveats:
This may be a Q&A format, but all normal caveats and limitations apply
I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Q&A SPECIAL
00:01:12 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:01:52 — UKRAINE & DRONE WARFARE
00:01:55 — The Role of SOF & Intel
00:04:49 — Drones & Robotics
00:09:09 — The State of the Ruble
00:10:57 — Surprises & Revelations
00:13:30 — "Emptied the Armouries"
00:15:17 — The World and Ukraine
00:16:52 — Weapons and Tools
00:20:47 — The $75B Question
00:24:47 — SYSTEMS AND ECONOMICS
00:24:58 — Tactical Nuclear Weapons
00:25:56 — Different Targets, Different Requirements
00:28:29 — Precision Wins
00:30:37 — Evolving Defence Thinking
00:35:42 — Least Credible Sources
00:39:37 — Public Education
00:41:26 — The One Thing?
00:42:28 — THE LUCKY DIP
00:42:38 — A Topic Outside Defence Eco?
00:43:49 — Moskvas and Ducks
00:45:31 — THE CHANNEL & PROCESS
00:45:39 — The Origin Story
00:47:53 — The Process
00:49:31 — The Team
00:51:05 — The Role of OSINT
00:52:28 — The Impact and Risks
00:53:37 — You – The Audience
00:55:25 — What Next?
00:56:59 — Perun Lore
00:57:44 — ABOUT PERUN
00:57:53 — THE 1990s
01:00:23 — Education and Background
01:03:20 — The Impact of the Channel
01:05:01 — The Field
01:06:10 — EE = Perun?
01:06:23 — Food
01:07:06 — GAMING
01:07:16 — Tabletop Games
01:08:10 — EVE Online
01:08:21 — What Next for Perun Gaming?
01:08:46 — CHANNEL UPDATE
In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa.
Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship.
And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world?
On that cheery note, welcome to 2024.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Corrections & Comments:
There are two flubs in the Audio that need to be mentioned on this one:
Firstly - marine traffic .com, not marine tracker (flubbed because I use it as a tracker I think)
Secondly - prosperity guardian not, as I say *twice*, prosperity garden
Thirdly - there are a few times where i refer to a 'trip' intending to mean a 'round trip' but this is not uniform. I apologise for the ambiguity
all other normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (will be expanded when I'm at my other PC):
US CENTCOM
twitter.com/CENTCOM
All ship traffic imagery generated using marinetraffic.com
UN Review of Maritime Transport 2023
unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2023
The CMF
combinedmaritimeforces.com
Prosperity Guardian
theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks
reuters.com/world/us-allies-reluctant-red-sea-task-force-2023-12-28
edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/politics/us-military-commercial-ships-red-sea-houthi-militants/index.html
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/analysis-has-the-us-led-red-sea-force-calmed-shippers-amid-houthi-attacks
Houthi boats sunk by US
bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67851897
navytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/12/31/us-navy-sinks-three-houthi-small-boats-in-hijack-attempt-in-red-sea
Reports on disruption and costs:
reuters.com/world/middle-east/suez-disruption-new-inflation-risk-horizon-2023-12-19
cnbc.com/2023/12/21/container-prices-hit-10000-freight-inflation-soars-in-red-sea-chaos.html
joc.com/article/fresh-surcharges-pile-asia-europe-shippers-amid-red-sea-attacks_20231229.html
Houthis:
reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemen-houthis-flex-military-muscle-parade-riyadh-seeks-ceasefire-2023-09-21
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/uk-maritime-group-reports-drones-explosion-off-yemen-coast
ajot.com/news/spiraling-cost-in-ocean-freight-shipping-rates-is-becoming-a-reality-as-suez-canal-remains-out-of-bounds
ACAPS (Yemen control map)
acaps.org/en/about-us/who-we-are
Image of VLS reloading
maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osvmaritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osv
SM6 upgrades
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27068/navy-to-supersize-its-ultra-versatile-sm-6-missile-for-even-longer-range-and-higher-speed
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Red Sea Crisis
00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:05 — Setting The Stage
00:11:49 — Motivation And Strikes
00:14:04 — Engagements And Targets
00:20:40 — Diversions And The Economics Of Disruptions
00:28:35 — Forces And Responses
00:40:36 — Options For Escalation
00:48:33 — The Chokepoint Problem
00:58:57 — Why This Matters
01:06:32 — Conclusion
01:06:56 — Channel Update
When debates arise on what the worlds strongest militaries are, attention tends to focus on the United States, PRC, and the Russian Federation. Less often mentioned is India...and I think that's a massive oversight.
With a rapidly growing economy, young demography, and a developing military industry, India's military evolution and strategy are likely to become ever more significant regional and global factors in the coming years.
So today, let's talk about it
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
At one point I refer to the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2016 - as per the slide, it was actually the Defence Procurement Procedure at the time. My reading was focused on the 2020 document, not 2016 as mentioned.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (to be expanded)
Platform counts are generally MB2022 figures for sake of consistency with other episodes
TIV figures are per SIPRI
Defence Acquisition Procedure - 2020
https://www.ddpmod.gov.in/sites/default/files/DAP%202020%20%2011%20Nov%2021_0.pdf
Defence Procurement Procedure - 2016 highlights
scribd.com/document/312506309/DPP-2016-pdf
Defence Procurement Procedure - 2013
https://cgda.nic.in/pdf/DPP2013.pdf
Featured Comptroller and Auditor General Report (35 or 2014)
https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2014/Union_Compliance_Defence_Army_Ordnance_Factories_35_2014.pdf
https://loksabhadocs.nic.in/Refinput/New_Reference_Notes/English/The%20Defence%20Procurement%20Procedure.pdf
Defence Procurement Manual 2016 (DRDO)
https://www.drdo.gov.in/sites/default/files/procurement-manuals-document/procurement-manual-2016.pdf
Reporting on India China clashes
wsj.com/articles/spiked-clubs-and-fists-at-14-000-feet-the-deadly-india-china-clash-11592418242
Reporting and Service Records
bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/26707
bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/36000
bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/28708
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-air-force-group-captain-who-died-in-air-crash-cremated/articleshow/81570740.cms
Reporting on QR bloat
https://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisation
US Force Demographics -2021
https://www.defenseculture.mil/Portals/90/Documents/Research/Publications/DEMORPT-2021_demographics_report-20230203.pdf
Dewey, McGerty, & Solanki (IISS) - Personnel vs. capital: the Indian defence budget
iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/04/indian-defence-budget
Reporting on Agnipath
ndtv.com/india-news/agnipath-scheme-aims-to-lower-forces-average-age-profile-by-4-5-years-3065496
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-move-to-increase-retirement-age-slash-pensions-triggers-uproar-in-military-circles/articleshow/79046152.cms
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1833765
Reporting on Russian arms deliveries to India
reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23
Reporting on MiG-21
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-do-mig-21-crash-indian-air-force-fighter-aircraft-rajasthan-incident-pilots-death-1981575-2022-07-29
https://thewire.in/security/mig-21-squadron-retired-curtain-closing-iaf-most-abiding-fighter
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-are-mig-21s-still-in-service-in-india-despite-several-recent-crashes-2376381-2023-05-08
independent.co.uk/asia/india/indian-air-force-mig-21-fleet-rajasthan-crash-b2342898.html
Reporting on QRs
https://thewire.in/security/indian-military-qr-overreach-modernisation
INSAS retiring
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/insas-rifles-to-retire-to-be-replaced-by-imported-weapons/articleshow/57479939.cms?from=mdr
Featured WB article on Indian growth
worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/03/india-s-growth-to-remain-resilient-despite-global-challenges
Reporting on Indian defence budget
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/india-s-military-modernization-in-doubt-with-tiny-budget-rise
F404 order
flightglobal.com/defence/hal-orders-99-f404-engines-to-support-tejas-production/145127.article
For comparison: F-16 mishap and pilot loss statistics
https://www.safety.af.mil/Portals/71/documents/Aviation/Aircraft%20Statistics/F-16.pdf
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Indian Defence Strategy
00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:14 — History
00:07:59 — Strategic Situation
00:21:22 — Indian Armed Forces
00:27:29 — The Nuclear Program
00:36:21 — Strengths & Challenges
00:46:37 — Defence Industry & Procurement
00:50:14 — Why Procurement Goes Wrong?
01:10:15 — Conclusion
01:11:03 — Channel Update
How do you train an army to fight a war that is different from any you've ever experienced?
Support for Ukraine has played a vital role in shaping the progress of the war in Ukraine to date. Ukrainian efforts have heavily leveraged munitions and systems supplied by their allies - but training has also been a key area for allied support
Unlike weapon systems however, evaluating the performance of NATO's training efforts are harder to determine. Reporting tends to focus on the quantity of troops going through these programs, but less reporting focuses on whether the training properly matches the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield
To get a better understanding of NATO's efforts to train with Ukraine in the years leading up to 2022 and since the full scale invasion, as well as some of the lessons members of the alliance might be learning from the war, today I'm welcoming back retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. LTG Hodges (Ret.) is a former commander of US Army Europe and engaged with Ukrainian forces extensively over his time in that role.
I'm very happy to welcome him back to the channel and want to stress that the opinions expressed in this interview are solely those of the individuals expressing them.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
ATP 3-01.81 Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) August 2023
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp3-01-81.pdf
Reports referencing the wargame series leading up to the Ukrainian summer offensive:
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war
reuters.com/world/europe/us-hosts-war-games-ukraine-ahead-next-phase-russia-conflict-2023-03-02
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/03/12/ukraine-prepares-its-counter-offensive-with-pentagon-hosted-wargames_6019053_4.html
RUSI – Preliminary lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022
static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
RUSI – Stormbreak: Fighting through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive
static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf
Example of reported feedback by Ukrainians on the limits of NATO training
opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military
“Inside the secret French camp where Ukrainians prepare for war”
https://www.politico.eu/article/in-rural-france-ukrainians-build-real-trenches-in-mock-villages/
Reuters reporting on US casualty estimate for Russian forces
reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12
Featured Reports and Image Sources
bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-hits-ukraine-military-training-center-near-polish-border-1.1736986
ausa.org/news/will-fight-difference-maker-ukraine
https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/Newsroom/Photos/igphoto/2001893071/
apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-france-military-f70fb490a8e4fd5ea472e3d81de7a176
army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/07/chief-of-the-general-staff-visits-ukrainian-training
reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-army-says-it-needs-3-billion-155-mm-artillery-rounds-production-2023-11-07
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/10/22/two-star-wants-to-ease-the-civilian-to-soldier-transition-during-army-basic-training
DPRK Shell quality
en.defenceua.com/analysis/dissatisfied_with_quality_and_quantity_of_north_korean_artillery_shells_russians_complain-8818.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
No financial consideration was paid in relation to this interview – though I did request that a charity be nominated for a donation after the interview was recorded
LTG Hodges did not exercise any editorial control over this episode as a whole, including my comments or the slides that have been included
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:35 — What Are We Talking About?
00:03:37 — Lessons From The Battlefield
00:03:56 — Q: Ensuring Training Delivers Value
00:07:44 — Q: Training For The Environment
00:12:56 — Q: Keeping Up With Adaptation
00:15:56 — Q: Observers And Lessons Learned
00:19:41 — Q: Lessons So Far?
00:22:28 — Q: Wargaming and Assumptions
00:25:32 — Q: Training Pre-2022
00:28:08 — Q: Evolution Of The Training Mission
00:34:30 — Q: Training Efforts Post 02/2022
00:37:22 — Q: Higher Level Training Requirements
00:40:47 — Q: Force Regeneration
00:43:24 — Cohesion And Training As A Unit
00:44:36 — Answer Pt.2: Force Regeneration
00:46:09 — Training Program Abbreviation
00:47:35 — Evaluating 2023
00:48:21 — Q: Outcome Vs Commitment
00:52:12 — Priorities, Resources & THAAD
00:54:01 — Q: The Path To 2025
01:02:20 — Conclusion
01:03:50 — Channel Update
Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela.
Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.
One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)
On the 1899 Arbitration
Awardlegal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_XXVIII/331-340.pdf
1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)
peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/GB-VE_660217_Agreement%20to%20Resolve%20Controversy%20over%20Frontier%20British%20Guiana.pdf
Relevant ICJ releases and hearing records:
icj-cij.org/case/171
ICJ Order of 1 December 2023
icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/171/171-20231201-ord-01-00-en.pdf
IMF Profile: Guyana
imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/GUY
IMF Profile: Venezuela
imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/VEN
Featured Reports:
theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-annex-guyana-maduro
edition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/americas/venezuelas-president-orders-creation-of-new-state-and-map-including-land-from-guyana/index.html
apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-d956cc4d5d2a70e3a1e762b744e397de
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/venezuela-s-maduro-to-grant-mineral-oil-licenses-in-essequibo?embedded-checkout=true
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/venezuelan-national-guardsmen-have-been-deserting-in-big-numbers?embedded-checkout=true
reuters.com/business/energy/offshore-discoveries-turn-tiny-guyana-into-oil-hotspot-2023-10-23
reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-proposes-sixth-oil-project-guyana-129-billion-2023-08-21
reuters.com/business/energy/guyana-says-another-significant-discovery-made-stabroek-offshore-block-2023-10-26
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana
00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:34 — Venezuela
00:07:36 — Guyana
00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation
00:24:55 — Venezuela's Military
00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption
00:41:29 — Guyana's Military
00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation?
00:51:21 — Regional Actors
00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice?
01:04:37 — Conclusion
01:05:36 — Channel Update
Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war - and what it may mean for the war in 2024.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading:
Ukraine population pyramid - World Population Review
worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population
Putin saying Ukraine would last a week without support
aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/6/putin-says-ukraine-would-last-a-week-if-western-military-support-stops#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20said,the%20United%20States%20dried%20up.
Russian polling on the war
carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118
US opinion polling on Russia
news.gallup.com/poll/1642/russia.aspx
The Russia Today article on Zelensky's popularity
rt.com/russia/585911-ukraine-zelensky-popularity-poll
Ukrainian attitudes towards the war:
kyivindependent.com/survey-95-of-ukrainians-believe-in-kyivs-victory-against-russia
ponarseurasia.org/victory-despite-the-cost-what-ukrainians-think-about-the-war-peace-and-russia
news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx
Analysis and reporting on Russian 2024 Budget:
carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753
reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02
Featured Daily Mail Article on UK support
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12585131/Britons-UK-troops-Ukraine-russia-war.html
Reporting on Russian use of prisoners for military purposes:
aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/21/russia-moves-to-legalise-prisoners-fighting-in-ukraine-war
bbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-war
rferl.org/a/russia-drafting-prisoners-law-ukraine-war-attrition/32627429.html
US Poling on Russia
pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/#:~:text=Over%20six%2Din%2Dten%20Americans,the%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine.
Poling on US war in Afghanistan
edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/15/afghan.war.poll
cbsnews.com/news/publics-views-of-afghanistan-war-have-turned-sour
news.gallup.com/poll/115270/americans-afghanistan-war-worth-fighting.aspx
Polling on US war in Iraq - 2006
news.gallup.com/poll/23374/american-public-opinion-iraq-five-conclusions.aspx
Polling on the US war in Iraq - 0082
pewresearch.org/2008/03/19/public-attitudes-toward-the-war-in-iraq-20032008
US poling on Ukraine:
pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/pp_2022-03-15_ukraine-russia_00-05
pbs.org/newshour/politics/almost-half-of-americans-think-u-s-spending-too-much-on-ukraine-aid-ap-norc-poll-says
news.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspx
The US affirming "As long as it takes":
ft.com/content/ebe3fb32-ec99-4a9a-a757-51e2203223be
Reporting on Ukraine's 'will not back down' stance
aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/29/ukraine-fm-vows-to-keep-fighting-while-lobbying-nato-support
Stoltenberg on the need to prepare for a long war
theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/22/jens-stoltenberg-nato-chief-west-support-ukraine-for-long-war
Bloomberg on mobilisation changes in UA
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/zelenskiy-faces-manpower-dilemma-in-ukraine-s-stalled-offensive?embedded-checkout=true
Article source for Avdiivka image
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-loses-roughly-4-000-soldiers-in-avdiivka-worst-casualties-rate-in-2023
Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 — War Exhaustion
00:13:51 — Impacts And Drivers
00:16:14 — Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine
00:20:07 — Ukraine
00:30:53 — Russia
00:41:23 — The United States
00:53:31 — The European Union
00:58:57 — The UK
01:02:01 — What Does This Mean?
01:03:27 — Conclusion
01:04:47 — Channel Update
As we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka - burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence.
At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.
In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading:
The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.
As noted in the video - credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)
Article in the Economist by Ukraine's Commander in Chief on the current positional nature of the war and Ukraine's requirements
economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-war
Featured TASS article on Russian war aims
tass.com/politics/1556743?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com
Ukrainian source on the 350 armoured vehicles claim used for comparison with VC loss data
kyivindependent.com/military-russia-loses-7-000-soldiers-350-armored-vehicles-at-avdiivka
Spotting of LMUR in Jan 2023
defence-blog.com/russias-mi-28-helicopter-spotted-with-new-advanced-missile-in-ukraine
Source image for the older Dnipro raids
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13juzul/ukrainian_special_operations_forces_sso_operating
Various example reports on Avdiivka & the Dnipro crossings
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bradley-ifvs-and-leopard-2-tanks-deployed-to-defend-avdiivka/
dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-renews-attacks-on-avdiivka/live-67540356
themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/13/russias-military-announces-then-backtracks-on-regrouping-in-southern-ukraine-a83083
bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953
businessinsider.com/ukraine-pushed-russian-forces-back-2-5-miles-from-dnipro-river-banks-2023-11
10-15,000 FPV figure being reported
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-manufacturers-supply-up-to-15-000-fpv-drones-per-month-to-the-defense-forces/
Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.
To those I'll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine - it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives
00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia
00:09:46 — Kherson
00:19:13 — Avdiivka
00:33:16 — Assessing Losses
00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations
00:59:31 — Observations
01:04:51 — Conclusion
01:05:38 — Channel Update
Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?
The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament.
But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels.
In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories:
thebulletin.org/#navbar-brand
thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook
fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023
thebulletin.org/premium/2023-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2023
RAND - US China military scorecard (featuring counter-force modelling)
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html
NNSA on Plutonium Pit Production
energy.gov/nnsa/plutonium-pit-production
Government Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Production
gao.gov/blog/over-budget-and-delayed-whats-next-u.s.-nuclear-weapons-research-and-production-projects
GAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisation
gao.gov/nuclear-weapons-and-forces-sustainment-and-modernization
GAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability”
gao.gov/products/gao-23-104661
Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030
cbo.gov/publication/57130
CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032
cbo.gov/publication/59365
USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheet
https://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/Docs/Sentinel/LGM-35A%20Sentinel%20Fact%20Sheet%20cao%206%20Apr.pdf
Mattis and the nuclear sponge
defensenews.com/space/2017/01/12/mattis-enthusiastic-on-icbms-tepid-on-nuclear-cruise-missile/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVRabFpqVTBNemszT0RWbSIsInQiOiJhaDhFaXdndE1tWjNnc3NwblkwWWNTWFJ2elgxZzJLVElUTFhUOWtNa3ZQbmhkdXlUd0srU0FjeEtuYzVSSlJPNDUyaDRsVkNzK0JsNG5XVnJVblllcUQ0TDY3bmpud1wvWXZ6OVBwaGMxMlEwWHN3UTFvOVgyMWhmTzd6dFh5SisifQ%3D%3D
NNSA warhead activities factsheet
energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/05/f62/2019-05-02-FACTSHEET-WeaponsActivities.pdf
NNSA W76-1 Fact sheet
osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357923
CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh)
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201210_Hersman_US_Nuclear.pdf
US 2022 National Defence Strategy
media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
CRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12266
CRS on Nuclear Triad
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10519
Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmat
cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-satan-ii-icbm-missile-failed-putin-new-start-nuclear-treaty
First Strike IMDb entry
imdb.com/title/tt2429312
Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol - How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze
thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze
Reporting on production of Pits at Los Alamos
time.com/6296743/los-alamos-lab-plutonium-pits-nuclear-weapons
Report on Sarmat going “on duty”
aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2/russia-puts-advanced-sarmat-nuclear-missile-system-on-combat-duty
Wired – on Russian nukes not working
wired.com/story/nuclear-weapons-testing
UK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UK
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9077
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation
00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation
00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision
00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb
00:21:45 — United States
00:34:54 — Russia
00:54:27 — China
01:02:22 — France
01:07:08 — United Kingdom
01:10:55 — Conclusion
01:11:48 — Channel Update
Today, I round out that list with more hyped up systems that didn't make in into the first video, while also looking at some that I'd probably nominate as just as, or more significant, that the ones drawing heaps of media attention.
Expect a focus on the importance of context and opportunity costs as we look at Kizhal, SCALP, the TB-2 drone and Orlan drones, as well as Starlink and Russia's extensive park of EW assets.
Thank you all of you who voted for this topic - I hope you enjoy.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
The Russian Way of War (Grau & Bartles) https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf
Justin Bronk - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: cna.org/reports/2023/05/russian-combat-air-strengths-and-limitations
GAO-21-24 ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM OPERATIONS
gao.gov/assets/720/711469.pdf
RUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence (Bronk, Reynolds & Watling)
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence
RUSI – The Orlan Complex, Tracking the supply chains of Russia’s most successful UAV
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most-successful-uav/interactive-summary
RUSI – Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of its Invasion of Ukraine (Watling & Reynolds)
static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
Russian military strategy core tenents and operational concepts - Michael Kofman, Anya Fink, Dmitry Gorenburg, Mary Chesnut, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Julian Waller cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-operational-concepts.pdf
Reporting on Musk and Starlink over Crimea
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-09/elon-musk-refused-ukrainian-request-to-activate-starlink-network/102835524
Palantin making its training intro in 2019
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russias-palantin-electronic-warfare-system-makes-training-debut
Included image on Strelets slide - Reddit
Rosoboronexport on Strelets
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/military-communications-equipment-and-automated-control-systems/automated-control-systems/strelets/
Included report in intel sharing
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/07/us-spies-ukraine-russia-military-intelligence
Starlink use 2022
ft.com/content/f69b75cf-c36a-4ab3-9eb7-ad0aa00d230c
Starshield
airandspaceforces.com/space-force-contract-spacex-starshield
Starlink latency map (demonstrating UA usage)
starlink.com/map?view=latency
Reporting on Pentagon deal with SpaceX
cnbc.com/2023/06/01/pentagon-awards-spacex-with-ukraine-contract-for-starlink-satellite-internet.html
Shoigu on Orlan production
tass.com/defense/1645501
Rosoboronexport on Orlan 30
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/uavs/orlan-30/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — More Game Changers
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:43 — System Shaping Battlefields
00:09:56 — Kinzhal And Storm Shadow/SCALP
00:26:12 — TB-2 And Orlan
00:40:51 — Communication
00:48:53 — Electronic Warfare
01:05:30 — Conclusions
01:06:43 — Channel Update
From its arsenal of Shah era weapons to its new generation of missiles, in this episode we did a bit deeper into Iran’s military capabilities, limitations, and the industrial capabilities behind them.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Platform figures per MB2022 as always for sake of consistency with my other works.
IMF data on Iran
imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/IRN?zoom=IRN&highlight=IRNv
IAEA Director General’s Statement on Verification in Iran
iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-generals-statement-on-verification-in-iran-0
Reporting on the IRGC vs Artesh budget
defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2021/12/16/iran-more-than-doubles-revolutionary-guards-budget-in-fy22-bill
CSIS – The Iranian Missile Threat – Anthony Cordesman
csis.org/analysis/iranian-missile-threat
CSIS – Missile Defence Project Iran
missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran
Iran friendly fire incident
theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/iranian-navy-ship-hit-by-missile-in-fatal-friendly-fire-incident-in-gulf
IAEA head on Iran
reuters.com/world/world-must-not-fail-iran-it-did-north-korea-iaea-chief-says-2023-10-16
Featured Times article on IRGC in Syria
time.com/90807/iran-syria-revolutionary-guard
IAEA reporting on Iran (Reuters)
reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-reports-no-progress-iran-uranium-stock-enriched-60-grows-2023-09-04
Iran missile test
apnews.com/article/iran-khorramshahr-ballistic-missile-nuclear-tensions-017382e19220700c618eeb51d0bd8b94
FP – Iran is filling Armenia’s power vacuum
foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/iran-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-russia-nagorno-karabakh-syunik
Reporting on Saudi-Iran détente
foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/12/saudi-iran-rapprochement-normalization-deal-china-de-escalation-yemen-syria
Fakour images
irangeomil.blogspot.com/2018/07/analysis-fakour-air-to-air-missile.htmlv
French statement on Iran’s nuclear program
onu.delegfrance.org/we-remain-determined-that-iran-must-never-develop-a-nuclear-weapon-and-must
CRS Reports:
Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12106
Iran’s Nuclear Program – compliance with international obligations
sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R40094.pdf
Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.N. Sanctions Reimposition
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11583
Michael Eisenstadt – IISS - Iran after Sanctions: Military Procurement and Force-Structure Decisions
iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/images/comment/analysis/2017/december/3-eisenstadt2125.pdf
Michael Eisenstadt - Iranian military developments and trends
washingtoninstitute.org/media/6362
Iran’s Foreign and Defence Policies
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44017/80
Iran – Background and U.S. Policy
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47321
Shaan Shaikh – CSIS – Iranian missiles in Iraq
csis.org/analysis/iranian-missiles-iraq
CSIS - The Iranian and Houthi War against Saudi Arabia
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/211221_Jones_IranianHouthi_SaudiArabia.pdf?VersionId=fn1d98tAhj7yOUr.IncppMueLOC4kv83
Reuters on Iran backing Iraqi militia
reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-tactical-shift-iran-grows-new-loyal-elite-among-iraqi-militias-2021-05-21
Khamenei praising Basij
reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-khamenei-praises-basij-forces-confronting-riots-tv-2022-11-26
Reporting on the 2017 Iran political rift
theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/rift-between-irans-ayatollah-and-re-elected-president-widens
UK House of Commons Briefing on Iran’s nuclear program
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870
IranM2 data
ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iran/money-supply-m2
Included article on sanctions sunset
edition.cnn.com/2023/10/18/politics/us-sanctions-iran-jcpoa-transition-day/index.html
Included article on Iran drone production
theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/14/us-says-iran-becoming-a-drone-leader-as-russia-uses-its-craft-in-ukraine
Source on included F-4 image
https://www.key.aero/article/how-does-iran-manage-keep-its-ageing-f-4-phantom-iis-flying
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes only.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:26 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 — History
00:09:24 — Position And Strategy
00:16:25 — The Force
00:28:47 — The Proxies
00:38:22 — Economy And Defence Production
00:49:40 — Production And Sanctions Busting
00:57:37 — Missiles And Drones
01:10:34 — Conclusion
01:11:30 — Channel Update
Now however, the Aircraft carrier is facing a growing family of new and evolving threats, ranging from anti ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics, to more capable submarines and unmanned systems. Some argue that these threats mean the Carrier may be ready to go the way of the battleship, becoming obsolete.
On the other hand, those same nations perfecting anti-carrier weapons are also investing extensively in new carriers of their own, suggesting they retain value.
In this video I look at carrier evolution, fleets, roles, threats - and the potential future of these extremely expensive platforms.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
I would also like to note I occasionally use terms like Carrier Strike Group and Carrier Task Force interchangeably - while the former has far greater contemporary relevance. Force of habit from historical studies so apologise for any confusion caused
Readings and Sources:
List is abridged as I'm feeling unwell:
Congressional Research Service - China Primer: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11719
John Lehmen - Aircraft Carriers—Missions, Sur aft Carriers—Missions, Survivability ability, Size, Cost, Numbers - Naval War College Review
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8219&context=nwc-review
Gerald Ford in Eastern Med
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3552801/uss-gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea/
CSIS - The first battle in the next war - Wargaming a Chinese Invasion...
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
Lieutenant Commander G. B. Vroom (1925) - Strategic Value of the Aircraft Carrier
usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1925/january/strategic-value-aircraft-carrier
RAND - Future Aircraft Carrier Options
rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2006.html
CRS - Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier
Program: Background and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service - China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Included reporting on Rapid Dragon:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42469/our-best-look-yet-at-rapid-dragon-cargo-plane-launched-stealth-cruise-missiles-in-action
US Navy force levels - Naval history and heritage command
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/histories/ship-histories/us-ship-force-levels.html
2021 reporting on naval DEW
news.usni.org/2021/04/07/navy-installing-more-directed-energy-weapons-on-ddgs-conducting-land-based-laser-testing-this-year
TASS reporting on Tsirkon
tass.com/defense/941559
321 Day carrier deployment
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2516467/austin-praises-nimitz-carrier-strike-group-for-record-breaking-deployment/#:~:text=The%20Nimitz%20Carrier%20Strike%20Group%20had%20the%20longest%20deployment%20since,to%20be%20roughly%20six%20months.
F-76 datasheet
docs.citgo.com/msds_pi/13176.pdf
Collins vs USN in 2000
afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kirafr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kir
carrier theme park as mentioned
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attraction_Review-g311293-d1865169-Reviews-Tianjin_Binhai_Aircraft_Carrier_Theme_Park-Tianjin.html
USNI - Need for air superiority and ship killing weapons says Pacific air-forces commander
news.usni.org/2023/03/21/u-s-needs-air-superiority-ship-killing-weapons-to-defend-taiwan-pacific-air-forces-commander-says
CRS - China naval modernisation
sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Reporting on PRC satellite based reconnaissance and tracking capabilities
defenseone.com/threats/2023/09/chinas-new-satellites-extend-its-militarys-reach-us-says/390223
Older 2013 article on the ASBM kill chain
airandspaceforces.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2013/December%202013/1213china.pdf
Report quoting Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler on PRC investment in AShM
news.usni.org/2021/01/27/u-s-admiral-china-can-keep-pouring-money-into-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Future Of The Aircraft Carrier
00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:15 — History
00:08:17 — What Makes A Carrier?
00:13:55 — Global Carrier Forces
00:25:46 — Strategic Power Projection
00:29:44 — Economics
00:39:56 — Vulnerabilities
00:47:52 — Countermeasures & Challenges
00:55:58 — If Not The Carrier, What?
01:04:20 — What Next For The Carrier
01:06:20 — Conclusion
01:06:44 — Channel Update