Perun | How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower @PerunAU | Uploaded January 2024 | Updated October 2024, 5 days ago.
Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.
As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.
So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant sources and reading:
NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm
Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges
carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-military-needs-bold-reforms-to-overcome-shrinking-population-pub-84822
UK Defence Personnel Statistics
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdf
gov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-defence-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022
gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2023
Mediazona Russian KIA count
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
US Army Demographics:
https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2022/11/15/62a2d64b/active-component-demographic-report-october-2022.pdf
ADF demographics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/service-australian-defence-force-census/latest-release
ROK conscript mobile phone trial
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190212000549&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8n11KMdPpIkEaFVDCi5PtwNy2Ko3jEL5XjBnV2H5mYaE9MuYTamttOQdWQqXNx6CsbLVuW
US misses recruiting goal:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/02/army-misses-recruiting-goal-by-15000-soldiers
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/#:~:text=Ashish%20Vazirani%20said%20that%20during,recruiting%20environment%2C%22%20he%20said.
defenseone.com/policy/2023/09/army-recruiting-better-last-year-still-short-goal-officials-say/390357
news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-say
father and son deploying together
military.com/daily-news/2013/05/09/national-guard-father-son-deploy-together.html
David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:
warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20the%20recruiting,likely%20to%20be%20even%20worse.
CDC data
cdc.gov/physicalactivity/resources/unfit-to-serve/index.html
cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.html
US Army recruiting reforms:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/10/03/after-missing-goal-again-army-announces-sweeping-recruiting-reforms
https://www.army.mil/article/270458/army_announces_transformation_of_its_recruiting_enterprise
https://www.army.mil/article/270692/army_details_five_ways_to_bring_recruiting_into_21st_century
UK medical classifications 1914
eehe.org.uk/?p=25030
Institutional trust levels:
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/04/trust-in-the-military-exceeds-trust-in-other-institutions-in-western-europe-and-u-s
USAREC:
https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/
Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia
jamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteers
Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions
themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509
USAF pilot poaching
airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2016/03/26/air-force-hopes-to-head-off-the-poaching-of-its-pilots
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 — History
00:07:57 — The Funnel
00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 — Driving Propensity
00:27:33 — Retention
00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 — Looking Abroad
00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 — Conclusion
01:05:29 — Channel Update
Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.
As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.
So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant sources and reading:
NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm
Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges
carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-military-needs-bold-reforms-to-overcome-shrinking-population-pub-84822
UK Defence Personnel Statistics
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdf
gov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-defence-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022
gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2023
Mediazona Russian KIA count
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
US Army Demographics:
https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2022/11/15/62a2d64b/active-component-demographic-report-october-2022.pdf
ADF demographics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/service-australian-defence-force-census/latest-release
ROK conscript mobile phone trial
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190212000549&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8n11KMdPpIkEaFVDCi5PtwNy2Ko3jEL5XjBnV2H5mYaE9MuYTamttOQdWQqXNx6CsbLVuW
US misses recruiting goal:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/02/army-misses-recruiting-goal-by-15000-soldiers
defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/#:~:text=Ashish%20Vazirani%20said%20that%20during,recruiting%20environment%2C%22%20he%20said.
defenseone.com/policy/2023/09/army-recruiting-better-last-year-still-short-goal-officials-say/390357
news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-say
father and son deploying together
military.com/daily-news/2013/05/09/national-guard-father-son-deploy-together.html
David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:
warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20the%20recruiting,likely%20to%20be%20even%20worse.
CDC data
cdc.gov/physicalactivity/resources/unfit-to-serve/index.html
cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.html
US Army recruiting reforms:
armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/10/03/after-missing-goal-again-army-announces-sweeping-recruiting-reforms
https://www.army.mil/article/270458/army_announces_transformation_of_its_recruiting_enterprise
https://www.army.mil/article/270692/army_details_five_ways_to_bring_recruiting_into_21st_century
UK medical classifications 1914
eehe.org.uk/?p=25030
Institutional trust levels:
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/04/trust-in-the-military-exceeds-trust-in-other-institutions-in-western-europe-and-u-s
USAREC:
https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/
Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia
jamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteers
Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions
themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509
USAF pilot poaching
airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2016/03/26/air-force-hopes-to-head-off-the-poaching-of-its-pilots
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 — History
00:07:57 — The Funnel
00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 — Driving Propensity
00:27:33 — Retention
00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 — Looking Abroad
00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 — Conclusion
01:05:29 — Channel Update
