Perun | The Black Sea & The Naval War in Ukraine - Drones, Grain, Blockades & the Bridge to Crimea @PerunAU | Uploaded July 2023 | Updated October 2024, 5 days ago.
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Description:
While the hardest fighting in Ukraine takes place on land, the Black Sea front saw a stand-off through most of 2022 and early 2023. Russia's fleet was ranged away from the coast by AShMs, but continued to fire cruise missiles from afar.

As time has gone on, the fighting has evolved and new weapons have been deployed, including long range drones. At the same time, the deal which allowed millions of tonnes of foodstuffs to safely transit the Black Sea now seems to have ended, setting the stage for a potential escalation in fighting and a potential blockade.

In this episode, I look at the naval war in 2023, the strikes on the bridge, and the potentially vast implications of the end of the grain export deal.

Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats and corrections:
All standard caveats and comments apply

At one point I refer to Russia's reasons for 'remaining' in the grain deal. From context I hope it's clear I mean to refer to the decision to leave/not renew it.

Reporting & reading:

Relevant TASS Reporting:
tass.com/politics/1571451

tass.com/defense/1650349

tass.com/emergencies/1648153

tass.com/politics/1648201

tass.com/economy/1648647

tass.com/economy/1651875

tass.com/politics/1650421

tass.com/economy/1649315

tass.com/politics/1631649

Turkish efforts last year::
aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/31/grain-exports-continue-despite-russian-withdrawal

US claims of russian mine laying
news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

Reporting on grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/

apnews.com/article/grain-import-ban-ukraine-russia-war-85491c0420045fca26ad37907e3e0d74 (grain import bans in EU)

reuters.com/world/russia-sees-no-grounds-renew-grain-deal-foreign-ministry-2023-07-04

aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/at-least-11-hurt-in-russian-raids-on-ukraines-mykolaiv-odesa

rferl.org/a/russia-odesa-strike-grain-facilities-naval-drill/32512956.html

nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-grain-shipping.html

ft.com/content/21065943-4b8c-4f22-a91a-806b5d571860

reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-rebuffs-un-chiefs-call-return-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-07-25

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-25/imf-sees-grain-prices-rising-up-to-15-from-black-sea-deal-pause?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner

apnews.com/article/black-sea-grain-shipments-ukraine-russia-war-3e79b0842ca97c96e73b824d0e621722

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/russia-ukraine-war-missile-attacks-grain-exports

The CNN video of UA naval drones
edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html

Reporting on Erdogan claiming the extension of the grain deal
dw.com/en/erdogan-claims-putin-agreed-to-renew-black-sea-grain-deal/a-66238371

Reporting on AU and grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/african-union-calls-to-reinstate-the-ukrainian-grain-deal/

Reporting on Sevastopol defences
navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/04/new-defenses-show-russia-on-defensive-in-sevastopol-as-ukraine-attacks

Opinion piece by retired US admiral on the possibility of escorting navy ships
japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/07/26/commentary/world-commentary/russian-ukraine-grain-ships

Australian Exports:
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/news/australian-wheat-export-snapshot-jan-23

Decline in UA production
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-02-27/agricultural-production-ukraine-has-declined-significantly

Ukraine drone attacks
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ukraines-drone-raid-on-russian-naval-base-was-tactically-innovative-but-not-revolutionary/

aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/29/drone-attack-repelled-in-sevastopol-moscow-installed-official

hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones-Evolution.html

International Law Studies Vol 64, The Law of Naval Operations
The Law of Submarine Warfare Today - Jon L. Jacobson
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1756&context=ils

Bridge attack:
bbc.com/news/world-europe-66229533

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Black Sea
00:01:29 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:42 — The Black Sea Campaign To 2023
00:10:39 — The Bridge
00:18:58 — The Grain Deal
00:24:19 — Cutting The Lifeline?
00:36:42 — Grain, Markets, Politics
00:42:40 — Impacting The Players?
00:50:23 — Alternative Options
00:56:51 — A New Theatre Of War?
00:59:00 — Conclusions
01:00:17 — Channel Update