Uploaded September 2019 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
SOURCES ARE BELOW:
The debate so far can be found here:
Heller’s opener: youtube.com/watch?v=uE-zY0roNfw
My rebuttal: youtube.com/watch?v=WLjkLPnIPPw
Heller: youtube.com/watch?v=XjdT-NdSoWM
Me: youtube.com/watch?v=weQ-N4iymrQ
Heller: youtube.com/watch?v=XycF0uCuByQ
Me: youtube.com/watch?v=V5fncpSikwk
Heller: (refused to continue)
Eight months on, Tony finally responded with this rebuttal:
youtube.com/watch?v=0A0luC11szU&t=24s
*At 10:17 I said that the increase in the Earth's temperature continues at a smaller and smaller rate. As I mention in the video, this is after the initial forcing -- insolation changes caused by orbital changes -- stops. But this needs further explanation to avoid confusion....
The shift in insolation stops because it is part of a change in orbit that obviously doesn't go on for ever. So when the forcing stops, positive feedback eventually dies down, until the Earth reaches its new equilibrium temperature.
Similarly, the forcing we are currently encountering is due to radiative forcing from increasing concentration of CO2. Temperatures will therefore continue climbing higher as long as we are still increasing that concentration.
Once we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere, the forcing will stop. But feedbacks will continue, adding further warming until the Earth reaches equilibrium temperature.
Sources for the causes of glaciations are:
“The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming” – Lorius et al, Nature 1990
“Investigations of Milankovitch and the quaternary curve of effective solar radiation” – W. Jardetsky, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, October 1961
“Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability” – Huybers and Curry, Nature 2006
“Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation” -- Jeremy D. Shakun, Nature 2012
“Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation” -- J. B. Pedro, Climate of the Past, 2012
“Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core Antarctica” -- Petit et al., Nature1999
“A time-dependent climatic feedback system involving sea-ice extent, ocean temperature and CO2” – Saltzman and Moritz, Tellus 1980
“Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change” – Scheffer et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2006
"Is carbon dioxide from fossil fuel changing man's environment?" -- Keeling, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 1969
14:21 – “Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III” -- Caillon et al, Science 2003
“CO2 record in the Byrd ice core 50,000 – 5,000 years BP” A Neftel et al., Nature 1988
“CO2-climate relationship as deduced from the Vostok ice core” -- Barnola et al, Tellus 1991
For figures on methane:
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016
ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf
“Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming” – Walter et al, Nature 2006
“Methane production by ruminants, its contribution to global warming” – Moss et al., 2000
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016.
“Man-made carbon dioxide and the “greenhouse” effect” JS Sawyer - Nature, 1972
In addition, there’s a very good paper on matching Milankovitch cycles to glacial cycles:
Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and
hysteresis of ice-sheet volume” – Abe-Ouchi et al., Nature 2013
The relationship between global temperature and energy balance is governed by the Stefan Boltzmann equation, where the radiation of a body is proportional to the temperature of the body to the power of four. For more on how ingoing and outgoing radiation affects temperature,, see this paper:
“Earth’s energy imbalance and its implications” – Hansen et al., published by GISS and Columbia University Earth Institute 2011. I cannot vouch for this as a peer-reviewed paper, but it is published by two reputable scientific institutes, and is therefore an educational rather than a research tool.
CORRECTION:
At 0:12 in the video, #12 should read 'ppb' not 'ppm'.
For my explanations of the cause of glaciations, see my videos
“Does CO2 lead or lag global temperature” youtube.com/watch?v=zQ3PzYU1N7A&t=281s
“The Evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC”
youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco&t=343s
SOURCES ARE BELOW:
The debate so far can be found here:
Heller’s opener: youtube.com/watch?v=uE-zY0roNfw
My rebuttal: youtube.com/watch?v=WLjkLPnIPPw
Heller: youtube.com/watch?v=XjdT-NdSoWM
Me: youtube.com/watch?v=weQ-N4iymrQ
Heller: youtube.com/watch?v=XycF0uCuByQ
Me: youtube.com/watch?v=V5fncpSikwk
Heller: (refused to continue)
Eight months on, Tony finally responded with this rebuttal:
youtube.com/watch?v=0A0luC11szU&t=24s
*At 10:17 I said that the increase in the Earth's temperature continues at a smaller and smaller rate. As I mention in the video, this is after the initial forcing -- insolation changes caused by orbital changes -- stops. But this needs further explanation to avoid confusion....
The shift in insolation stops because it is part of a change in orbit that obviously doesn't go on for ever. So when the forcing stops, positive feedback eventually dies down, until the Earth reaches its new equilibrium temperature.
Similarly, the forcing we are currently encountering is due to radiative forcing from increasing concentration of CO2. Temperatures will therefore continue climbing higher as long as we are still increasing that concentration.
Once we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere, the forcing will stop. But feedbacks will continue, adding further warming until the Earth reaches equilibrium temperature.
Sources for the causes of glaciations are:
“The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming” – Lorius et al, Nature 1990
“Investigations of Milankovitch and the quaternary curve of effective solar radiation” – W. Jardetsky, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, October 1961
“Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability” – Huybers and Curry, Nature 2006
“Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation” -- Jeremy D. Shakun, Nature 2012
“Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation” -- J. B. Pedro, Climate of the Past, 2012
“Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core Antarctica” -- Petit et al., Nature1999
“A time-dependent climatic feedback system involving sea-ice extent, ocean temperature and CO2” – Saltzman and Moritz, Tellus 1980
“Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change” – Scheffer et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2006
"Is carbon dioxide from fossil fuel changing man's environment?" -- Keeling, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 1969
14:21 – “Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III” -- Caillon et al, Science 2003
“CO2 record in the Byrd ice core 50,000 – 5,000 years BP” A Neftel et al., Nature 1988
“CO2-climate relationship as deduced from the Vostok ice core” -- Barnola et al, Tellus 1991
For figures on methane:
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016
ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/ghgp/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28Feb%2016%202016%29_1.pdf
“Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming” – Walter et al, Nature 2006
“Methane production by ruminants, its contribution to global warming” – Moss et al., 2000
“Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing” – Etminan at al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2016.
“Man-made carbon dioxide and the “greenhouse” effect” JS Sawyer - Nature, 1972
In addition, there’s a very good paper on matching Milankovitch cycles to glacial cycles:
Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and
hysteresis of ice-sheet volume” – Abe-Ouchi et al., Nature 2013
The relationship between global temperature and energy balance is governed by the Stefan Boltzmann equation, where the radiation of a body is proportional to the temperature of the body to the power of four. For more on how ingoing and outgoing radiation affects temperature,, see this paper:
“Earth’s energy imbalance and its implications” – Hansen et al., published by GISS and Columbia University Earth Institute 2011. I cannot vouch for this as a peer-reviewed paper, but it is published by two reputable scientific institutes, and is therefore an educational rather than a research tool.
CORRECTION:
At 0:12 in the video, #12 should read 'ppb' not 'ppm'.
For my explanations of the cause of glaciations, see my videos
“Does CO2 lead or lag global temperature” youtube.com/watch?v=zQ3PzYU1N7A&t=281s
“The Evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC”
youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco&t=343s
