potholer54 | Why global temperatures never go up in straight lines @potholer54 | Uploaded April 2015 | Updated October 2024, 3 hours ago.
I have added a comment at 2:35 in the 'sources' section below, following 1000Frolly's belated attempt to answer the questions posed in the video.
CORRECTION:
1) I mention that the energy imbalance is measured. In fact, it is inferred. Here is a post by climate researcher Gavin Schmidt on another site:
"The imbalance is inferred from heat content changes (ocean and elsewhere). It therefore has nothing to do with the measurements of TOA radiation – which are still not accurate enough to constrain it directly. The change in the energy balance diagram is only 0.7W/m2 in the absorbed SW, so it really doesn’t make that much difference. The Stephens et al (2012) picture is a more recent update though."
SOURCES:
0:00 Stuart Varney, Fox News
1:35 My video “The Evidence for Climate Change Without Computer Models or the IPCC” is at youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=29
2:35 -- After my outing of 1000Frolly's failure to respond as promised he has since relented and attempted to answer the questions. Well, sort of. Most of his response video -- youtube.com/watch?v=j-LI5-7s9sE -- is just him repeating "there's no evidence that CO2 causes climate change," and "there's no evidence CO2 has ever driven climate change or determined global temperature." But as I pointed out in the video, the evidence is presented in hundreds of scientific papers published over the last 120 years, many of which I have cited and outlined in my videos. It would be commendable if Frolly were to address this evidence and show how it is flawed, but to simply say "it's not there" is rather pathetic. Similarly, I asked citizen scientists like Frolly to explain how the Earth escaped from its iced-over condition 600 million years ago, and why the Earth was much hotter than today during the Cambrian when the sun was much cooler, but 1000Frolly offered no explanation other than "cosmic rays and clouds", without saying how they managed such feats, or offering up a single scientific paper to support his claim. So the questions are still out there.
4:06 Exchange with PrairieDoggedRez is on the forum at
youtube.com/watch?v=_PWDFzWt-Ag&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=9
4:40 The RSS trend line is calculated through an interactive graph at woodfortrees.org. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this site, and neither does the site’s owner (in a disclaimer.) I use it simply because this is the source PDR uses.
10:04 – Decadal temp graph from “The recent pause in global warming (2): What are the potential causes?” -- Met Office, July 2013
14:14 – Graph of CO2 correlation from “Climate Sensitivity during the Phanerozoic: Lessons for the Future” – Royer, 2009.
So here are the notes I alluded to at the end of the video. Remember, you have to explain all the things carbon dioxide explains:
1) How did the Earth escape from its ice-bound conditions during the pre-Cambrian?
2) Why was the Earth much hotter than today during the Cambrian, even though solar output was much weaker.
3) What caused past temperature swings lasting millions of years, and why does CO2 correlate so well with these temperature swings over the last 500 million years?
4) What caused the ice sheets to melt during the most recent deglaciation?
5) What has caused temperatures to rise so steeply in the last 40 years?
6) Why have temperatures been hitting record highs over the last 18 years, even though all other factors have been conspiring to push temperatures down? What’s keeping them up?
And please don't post these, for the reasons given:
Galactic rays did it
This is a hypothesis expounded by Nur Shaviv, so read Shaviv’s paper. Even if the hypothesis is sound, galactic rays work on periods of around 20 million years, not on decadal timescales, and Shaviv says they don’t explain recent warming (#5 on the list). Neither do they explain deglaciation (#4) or the escape from snowball Earth (#1).
Cosmic rays did it
The hypothesis is that cosmic rays seed clouds, and that clouds cool the Earth. But that's not correct; clouds are roughly feedback neutral. In addition, there is no correlation between cosmic ray intensity and global temperature.
The sun did it
Clearly not. The Earth was much hotter than today at a time when solar output was much weaker (#2 on the list).
God did it
Sign of desperation.
I have added a comment at 2:35 in the 'sources' section below, following 1000Frolly's belated attempt to answer the questions posed in the video.
CORRECTION:
1) I mention that the energy imbalance is measured. In fact, it is inferred. Here is a post by climate researcher Gavin Schmidt on another site:
"The imbalance is inferred from heat content changes (ocean and elsewhere). It therefore has nothing to do with the measurements of TOA radiation – which are still not accurate enough to constrain it directly. The change in the energy balance diagram is only 0.7W/m2 in the absorbed SW, so it really doesn’t make that much difference. The Stephens et al (2012) picture is a more recent update though."
SOURCES:
0:00 Stuart Varney, Fox News
1:35 My video “The Evidence for Climate Change Without Computer Models or the IPCC” is at youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=29
2:35 -- After my outing of 1000Frolly's failure to respond as promised he has since relented and attempted to answer the questions. Well, sort of. Most of his response video -- youtube.com/watch?v=j-LI5-7s9sE -- is just him repeating "there's no evidence that CO2 causes climate change," and "there's no evidence CO2 has ever driven climate change or determined global temperature." But as I pointed out in the video, the evidence is presented in hundreds of scientific papers published over the last 120 years, many of which I have cited and outlined in my videos. It would be commendable if Frolly were to address this evidence and show how it is flawed, but to simply say "it's not there" is rather pathetic. Similarly, I asked citizen scientists like Frolly to explain how the Earth escaped from its iced-over condition 600 million years ago, and why the Earth was much hotter than today during the Cambrian when the sun was much cooler, but 1000Frolly offered no explanation other than "cosmic rays and clouds", without saying how they managed such feats, or offering up a single scientific paper to support his claim. So the questions are still out there.
4:06 Exchange with PrairieDoggedRez is on the forum at
youtube.com/watch?v=_PWDFzWt-Ag&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=9
4:40 The RSS trend line is calculated through an interactive graph at woodfortrees.org. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this site, and neither does the site’s owner (in a disclaimer.) I use it simply because this is the source PDR uses.
10:04 – Decadal temp graph from “The recent pause in global warming (2): What are the potential causes?” -- Met Office, July 2013
14:14 – Graph of CO2 correlation from “Climate Sensitivity during the Phanerozoic: Lessons for the Future” – Royer, 2009.
So here are the notes I alluded to at the end of the video. Remember, you have to explain all the things carbon dioxide explains:
1) How did the Earth escape from its ice-bound conditions during the pre-Cambrian?
2) Why was the Earth much hotter than today during the Cambrian, even though solar output was much weaker.
3) What caused past temperature swings lasting millions of years, and why does CO2 correlate so well with these temperature swings over the last 500 million years?
4) What caused the ice sheets to melt during the most recent deglaciation?
5) What has caused temperatures to rise so steeply in the last 40 years?
6) Why have temperatures been hitting record highs over the last 18 years, even though all other factors have been conspiring to push temperatures down? What’s keeping them up?
And please don't post these, for the reasons given:
Galactic rays did it
This is a hypothesis expounded by Nur Shaviv, so read Shaviv’s paper. Even if the hypothesis is sound, galactic rays work on periods of around 20 million years, not on decadal timescales, and Shaviv says they don’t explain recent warming (#5 on the list). Neither do they explain deglaciation (#4) or the escape from snowball Earth (#1).
Cosmic rays did it
The hypothesis is that cosmic rays seed clouds, and that clouds cool the Earth. But that's not correct; clouds are roughly feedback neutral. In addition, there is no correlation between cosmic ray intensity and global temperature.
The sun did it
Clearly not. The Earth was much hotter than today at a time when solar output was much weaker (#2 on the list).
God did it
Sign of desperation.
