Uploaded April 2014 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
CORRECTIONS:
1) Sea level rise at the end of the last glaciation was 400 feet, not 200 feet.
2) @11:30 I show the wrong map from the 2004 Parry et al. paper. This one is without the effect of CO2 fertilization.
SOURCES:
1:48 "Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland"
Ola M. Johannessen et al, Science November 2005
2:10 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- S. B. Luthcke, et al., Science November 2006
2:12 "Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet" --
J. L. Chen, et al., Science 2006
3:19 "Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet" J. Chen et al., Science, 2006
3:22 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- Luthcke et al, Science, 2006
3:24 "Lower estimates of Antarctic sea level contribution from satellite gravimetry" King et al, Nature 2012
3:26 Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling" -- Rignot et al, 2008
3:28 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE"
3:30 "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance"
Shepherd et al Science 2012
4:01 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE"
4:24 "Toward prediction of environmental Arctic change"
W Maslowski, JC Kinney, J Jakacki - Computing in Science 2007
5:25 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008
5:40 "Global sea level linked to global temperature" --
Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009
6:10 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes"
-- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008
8:02 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008
8:57 "Climate: Observations, projections and Impacts" -- Met Office 2013.
metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obs-projections-impacts
10:05 "Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates"
-- T. Schneider and P. A. O'Gorman, Journal of Climate 2008
11:30 "Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios" -- Parry et al, Global Environmental Change 2004
11:52 "Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes" Bradley et al., Science 2006
11:55 "Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive "Acidified" Water onto the Continental Shelf" -- Richard A. Feely, Science 2008
12:01 "Coral Reefs: Present Problems and Future Concerns Resulting from Anthropogenic Disturbance" -- RH Richmond, American Zoologist 1993
12:06 "Global Warming and Coastal Erosion" -- Zhang et al., Climatic Change
12: 08 "Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models" -- Cramer et al., Global Change Biology 2001
12:25 "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications" -- Goldenberg, Science 2001
12:34 "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents"
Petoukhov, V., and V. A. Semenov,
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, Nov 2010
14:08 I backtracked this new "CAGW" label, and it seems to have started with author Michael Crichton in 2007, but was popularized in 2010 with an opinion piece in the Washington Post.
14:42 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes"
-- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008
15:07 "Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries"
Anne B. Hollowed
15:12 "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change" -- UK Government report, 2006
17:47 Someone queried the nuclear fusion reactor - BP oil spill comparison.
I don't have my notes with me so I can't give you my source for the $28 billion. So let's look at a couple of other ratios.
According to ITER (the Experimental Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), if all the manufacturing is done in Europe the estimated cost of building ITER, supported by the United States, the European Union, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, has been estimated at approximately $14.4 billion (at April 2016 exchange rates.) That's around a third the estimated cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico ($42 billion)." (SOURCE: iter.org/faq#Do_we_really_know_how_much_ITER_will_cost) "Based on the European evaluation, we can estimate the cost of ITER construction for the seven members at approximately EUR 13 billion, if all the manufacturing is done in Europe." )
Or, looking at it another way, the cost of building the National Ignition Facility -- a key research project into nuclear fusion -- was less that 10% of the cost of the BP oil spill.
CORRECTIONS:
1) Sea level rise at the end of the last glaciation was 400 feet, not 200 feet.
2) @11:30 I show the wrong map from the 2004 Parry et al. paper. This one is without the effect of CO2 fertilization.
SOURCES:
1:48 "Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland"
Ola M. Johannessen et al, Science November 2005
2:10 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- S. B. Luthcke, et al., Science November 2006
2:12 "Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet" --
J. L. Chen, et al., Science 2006
3:19 "Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet" J. Chen et al., Science, 2006
3:22 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- Luthcke et al, Science, 2006
3:24 "Lower estimates of Antarctic sea level contribution from satellite gravimetry" King et al, Nature 2012
3:26 Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling" -- Rignot et al, 2008
3:28 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE"
3:30 "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance"
Shepherd et al Science 2012
4:01 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE"
4:24 "Toward prediction of environmental Arctic change"
W Maslowski, JC Kinney, J Jakacki - Computing in Science 2007
5:25 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008
5:40 "Global sea level linked to global temperature" --
Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009
6:10 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes"
-- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008
8:02 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008
8:57 "Climate: Observations, projections and Impacts" -- Met Office 2013.
metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obs-projections-impacts
10:05 "Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates"
-- T. Schneider and P. A. O'Gorman, Journal of Climate 2008
11:30 "Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios" -- Parry et al, Global Environmental Change 2004
11:52 "Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes" Bradley et al., Science 2006
11:55 "Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive "Acidified" Water onto the Continental Shelf" -- Richard A. Feely, Science 2008
12:01 "Coral Reefs: Present Problems and Future Concerns Resulting from Anthropogenic Disturbance" -- RH Richmond, American Zoologist 1993
12:06 "Global Warming and Coastal Erosion" -- Zhang et al., Climatic Change
12: 08 "Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models" -- Cramer et al., Global Change Biology 2001
12:25 "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications" -- Goldenberg, Science 2001
12:34 "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents"
Petoukhov, V., and V. A. Semenov,
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, Nov 2010
14:08 I backtracked this new "CAGW" label, and it seems to have started with author Michael Crichton in 2007, but was popularized in 2010 with an opinion piece in the Washington Post.
14:42 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes"
-- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008
15:07 "Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries"
Anne B. Hollowed
15:12 "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change" -- UK Government report, 2006
17:47 Someone queried the nuclear fusion reactor - BP oil spill comparison.
I don't have my notes with me so I can't give you my source for the $28 billion. So let's look at a couple of other ratios.
According to ITER (the Experimental Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), if all the manufacturing is done in Europe the estimated cost of building ITER, supported by the United States, the European Union, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, has been estimated at approximately $14.4 billion (at April 2016 exchange rates.) That's around a third the estimated cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico ($42 billion)." (SOURCE: iter.org/faq#Do_we_really_know_how_much_ITER_will_cost) "Based on the European evaluation, we can estimate the cost of ITER construction for the seven members at approximately EUR 13 billion, if all the manufacturing is done in Europe." )
Or, looking at it another way, the cost of building the National Ignition Facility -- a key research project into nuclear fusion -- was less that 10% of the cost of the BP oil spill.
