Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Access to Space is Threatened by Cascading Collisions of Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites:Kessler Syndrome
Startling new research shows that humanity faces a severe near-term risk that could completely shut down human access to space.
We are presently loading up low-Earth-orbit with numerous satellites, greatly increasing the risk of collisions. One collision would generate hundreds to thousands of debris fragments, one of which hitting a third satellite would generate hundreds to thousand more debris fragments, etc. leading to a cascade of collisions that could essentially fill up an orbit with debris, and preclude any further launches to any orbit levels for decades to even a century.
WTF are we doing??
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References and Links:
Article in the Conversation:
A new CRASH Clock measures the chance of satellite collisions, and it’s ticking down fast
Published: June 30, 2026 1.49pm EDT
"Imagine a piece of space debris the size of a hockey puck slams into a Starlink satellite at about 10 kilometres per second. The kinetic energy is equivalent to two kilograms of TNT, or a fully-loaded semi-truck travelling at 100 kilometres an hour.
The Starlink satellite sprays out dozens of new debris pieces into an expanding cloud. Other satellites will pass by the new debris within minutes — some will need to manoeuvre to avoid yet another collision"
Link:
theconversation.com/a-new-crash-clock-measures-the-chance-of-satellite-collisions-and-its-ticking-down-fast-283481
Scientific Research Paper in Journal Acta Astronautica:
An orbital house of cards: Frequent satellite close conjunctions
Abstract
The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing, primarily driven by the launch of mega-constellations, an approach to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal, as well as the overall proliferation of satellite systems. While satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with challenges, including the growth of space debris, collision risks, ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and the alteration of Earth’s upper atmosphere through rocket emissions and reentry ablation. There is potential for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to quantify stress on the orbital environment. Here we propose a new metric, the CRASH Clock, that measures such stress in terms of the timescale for a possible catastrophic collision to occur if there are no satellite maneuvers or there is a severe loss in situational awareness. Our calculations show that the CRASH Clock is 5.5 days as of June 2025 and continues to decrease, which suggests there is limited time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-mega-constellation era: in 2018, the CRASH
Clock was 164 days.
Link: sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576526004091
European Space Sciences Report:
The Atmospheric Impacts of Re-entry and Launch (AIRL): High Priority Actions and Recommendations
Link: zenodo.org/records/20831147
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Access to Space is Threatened by Cascading Collisions of Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites:Kessler Syndrome
Startling new research shows that humanity faces a severe near-term risk that could completely shut down human access to space.
We are presently loading up low-Earth-orbit with numerous satellites, greatly increasing the risk of collisions. One collision would generate hundreds to thousands of debris fragments, one of which hitting a third satellite would generate hundreds to thousand more debris fragments, etc. leading to a cascade of collisions that could essentially fill up an orbit with debris, and preclude any further launches to any orbit levels for decades to even a century.
WTF are we doing??
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References and Links:
Article in the Conversation:
A new CRASH Clock measures the chance of satellite collisions, and it’s ticking down fast
Published: June 30, 2026 1.49pm EDT
"Imagine a piece of space debris the size of a hockey puck slams into a Starlink satellite at about 10 kilometres per second. The kinetic energy is equivalent to two kilograms of TNT, or a fully-loaded semi-truck travelling at 100 kilometres an hour.
The Starlink satellite sprays out dozens of new debris pieces into an expanding cloud. Other satellites will pass by the new debris within minutes — some will need to manoeuvre to avoid yet another collision"
Link:
theconversation.com/a-new-crash-clock-measures-the-chance-of-satellite-collisions-and-its-ticking-down-fast-283481
Scientific Research Paper in Journal Acta Astronautica:
An orbital house of cards: Frequent satellite close conjunctions
Abstract
The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing, primarily driven by the launch of mega-constellations, an approach to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal, as well as the overall proliferation of satellite systems. While satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with challenges, including the growth of space debris, collision risks, ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and the alteration of Earth’s upper atmosphere through rocket emissions and reentry ablation. There is potential for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to quantify stress on the orbital environment. Here we propose a new metric, the CRASH Clock, that measures such stress in terms of the timescale for a possible catastrophic collision to occur if there are no satellite maneuvers or there is a severe loss in situational awareness. Our calculations show that the CRASH Clock is 5.5 days as of June 2025 and continues to decrease, which suggests there is limited time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-mega-constellation era: in 2018, the CRASH
Clock was 164 days.
Link: sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576526004091
European Space Sciences Report:
The Atmospheric Impacts of Re-entry and Launch (AIRL): High Priority Actions and Recommendations
Link: zenodo.org/records/20831147
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
