Uploaded April 2019 | Updated September 2026, 2 hours ago
How I predicted a very active pattern for Tornadoes in Late May of 2019 several weeks in advance for Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas over the traditional tornado alley. Currently Verifying with +/-May 5th storms, May 17 with McCook and Dodge City/Mineola area. May 20th to May 31st and beyond expected to be either historic or at least above normal activity for the Central and Southern plains states. Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas all expected to see multiple tornado days.
This is intended to be a fun, but academic exercise into tornado climatology and attempting to apply that to an upcoming season. UPDATE 4/29/19 EL Nino officially declared. Almost all drought conditions obliterated! Lots of western troughs, average tornado counts. How is this year playing out overall? How does it compare to my previous predictions?
Predicting tornadoes months in advance is nearly comical or divination, and so this video is like the last one, is well, almost funny. So sit back, relax and enjoy the memes. You might as well grab a magic 8-ball, or maybe I do better than that. Either way I'll have another update later and we'll see just how bad I did.
#TornadoForecast #StormChasing
NIU's Victor Gensini and The "ERTAF" http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
CPC ENSO (El Nino) Forecast: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
ALL The climate Oscillations: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation
The AAM (Hardcore mode!!) sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/angular-momentum
Short and Medium range and Ensemble Weather Models: Pivotalweather.com
How I predicted a very active pattern for Tornadoes in Late May of 2019 several weeks in advance for Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas over the traditional tornado alley. Currently Verifying with +/-May 5th storms, May 17 with McCook and Dodge City/Mineola area. May 20th to May 31st and beyond expected to be either historic or at least above normal activity for the Central and Southern plains states. Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas all expected to see multiple tornado days.
This is intended to be a fun, but academic exercise into tornado climatology and attempting to apply that to an upcoming season. UPDATE 4/29/19 EL Nino officially declared. Almost all drought conditions obliterated! Lots of western troughs, average tornado counts. How is this year playing out overall? How does it compare to my previous predictions?
Predicting tornadoes months in advance is nearly comical or divination, and so this video is like the last one, is well, almost funny. So sit back, relax and enjoy the memes. You might as well grab a magic 8-ball, or maybe I do better than that. Either way I'll have another update later and we'll see just how bad I did.
#TornadoForecast #StormChasing
NIU's Victor Gensini and The "ERTAF" http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
CPC ENSO (El Nino) Forecast: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
ALL The climate Oscillations: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation
The AAM (Hardcore mode!!) sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/angular-momentum
Short and Medium range and Ensemble Weather Models: Pivotalweather.com
