Perun | Winter & the War in Ukraine - Who is better prepared for winter conditions? @PerunAU | Uploaded December 2022 | Updated October 2024, 6 days ago.
Description:
The 2022 phase of the war in Ukraine began in the closing weeks of winter, with a February offensive rapidly coming to face the onset of mud and thawing conditions.
Now, in December, Ukraine prepares for a full winter of full-scale, conventional conflict.
Winter conditions are extremely demanding, both on manpower and materiel, and in this episode we look a little closer at what is involved in operating in cold weather conditions, how cold Ukraine gets, and how prepared both sides seem to be for the onset of their winter war.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats:
Getting a holistic picture on the quality of supply and training for Ukrainian and Russian units is difficult. Social media and visual evidence are useful sources, but will only ever represent a small sample of overall units. Analysis is based on, and limited by, the available information.
On second listening, this video includes some wording that could have been tightened up. For example, I think I say efficiency regarding battery performance in cold word when 'capacity' would have been more accurate.
When I suggest that both sides are likely to launch offensives, I do not mean that both will likely launch operations at the same scale, simply that both will identify local opportunities to exploit conditions.
Comments on recent publicity around certain sponsors on YT towards the end of this video simply represent me restating what I have heard, and do not constitute an accusation of any wrongdoing by any actor.
Sources/Extra Reading:
ATP 3-90.97 Mountain Warfare and Cold Weather Operations
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp3-90-97.pdf
ATP 3-21.50 Infantry Small-Unit Mountain and Cold Weather
Operations
https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN30234-ATP_3-21.50-000-WEB-1.pdf
Supply of winter equipment:
reuters.com/world/europe/nato-calls-allies-supply-winter-uniforms-ukrainian-army-2022-09-09
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/22/dead-winter-beckons-poorly-equipped-russian-forces-ukraine
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/latvian-companies-begin-producing-winter-uniforms-for-armed-forces-of-ukraine/
reuters.com/world/canada-announces-new-military-package-ukraine-after-russian-missile-attacks-2022-10-12
UD 6-81-7 E
INSTRUCTION IN WINTER SERVICE
USE AND MAINTENANCE OF EQUIPMENT
https://www.forsvaret.no/en/organisation/centre-of-excellence-cold-weather-operations/handbook-and-lectures/english-handbooks
Ukraine has enough gas for winter, prime minister says
reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-enough-gas-winter-prime-minister-says-2022-11-04
Credit to relevant Twitter aggregators referenced in this video, e.g.
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1596509527293235213/photo/1
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1555002181509586944
twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1595788630206849024
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1595515700810027008
Order of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation dated November 4, 2022 No. 547 "On approval of the List of information in the field of military, military-technical activities of the Russian Federation, which, if received by foreign sources, can be used against the security of the Russian Federation
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202211170017?index=0&rangeSize=1
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — *OPENING WORDS*
00:02:54 — *WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?*
00:04:14 — _*HOW COLD IS COLD*_
00:04:34 — Categorising Cold
00:05:17 — Wet Cold
00:06:33 — Dry Cold
00:07:18 — Intense Cold
00:08:05 — Extreme Cold
00:08:54 — Hazardous Cold
00:09:54 — How Cold Does Ukraine Get?
00:11:12 — _*TACTICAL LEVEL*_
00:11:24 — Concealment and Movement
00:13:57 — Protecting the Person
00:16:30 — Equipment Issues
00:17:46 — Mounting Requirements
00:19:35 — Training and Discipline Premium
00:23:14 — What Does it Mean?
00:25:23 — _*OPERATIONAL LEVEL*_
00:25:42 — Not a Time to Stop
00:27:25 — Historical Engagements
00:28:42 — Enabling Movement
00:29:48 — Pushing Logistics
00:31:12 — The Aerial Dimension
00:32:55 — _*HOW WELL PREPARED ARE THEY*_
00:33:17 — Not Their First Winter War
00:34:56 — The MOBIK Problem
00:36:39 — Gearing Up for Winter
00:38:09 — The Russian Situation
00:39:34 — The Full Spectrum
00:40:58 — Real Solutions
00:41:20 — The Role of Volunteers
00:42:39 — Are They Ready?
00:45:25 — Leadership at All Levels
00:47:18 — Operational Concerns
00:48:40 — The Fuel of War
00:49:38 — So, On Balance?
00:51:10 — _*WHAT TO EXPECT?*_
00:51:24 — Objectives
00:53:23 — Operational Tempo
00:54:13 — Realities at the Front
00:55:31 — _*STRATEGY LEVEL*_
00:55:43 — Winter Economics
00:56:22 — Russian Comfort
00:57:02 — Threats
00:58:45 — The Will Go On
01:00:23 — *CONCLUSIONS*
01:01:55 — *CHANNEL UPDATE*
Description:
The 2022 phase of the war in Ukraine began in the closing weeks of winter, with a February offensive rapidly coming to face the onset of mud and thawing conditions.
Now, in December, Ukraine prepares for a full winter of full-scale, conventional conflict.
Winter conditions are extremely demanding, both on manpower and materiel, and in this episode we look a little closer at what is involved in operating in cold weather conditions, how cold Ukraine gets, and how prepared both sides seem to be for the onset of their winter war.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats:
Getting a holistic picture on the quality of supply and training for Ukrainian and Russian units is difficult. Social media and visual evidence are useful sources, but will only ever represent a small sample of overall units. Analysis is based on, and limited by, the available information.
On second listening, this video includes some wording that could have been tightened up. For example, I think I say efficiency regarding battery performance in cold word when 'capacity' would have been more accurate.
When I suggest that both sides are likely to launch offensives, I do not mean that both will likely launch operations at the same scale, simply that both will identify local opportunities to exploit conditions.
Comments on recent publicity around certain sponsors on YT towards the end of this video simply represent me restating what I have heard, and do not constitute an accusation of any wrongdoing by any actor.
Sources/Extra Reading:
ATP 3-90.97 Mountain Warfare and Cold Weather Operations
irp.fas.org/doddir/army/atp3-90-97.pdf
ATP 3-21.50 Infantry Small-Unit Mountain and Cold Weather
Operations
https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN30234-ATP_3-21.50-000-WEB-1.pdf
Supply of winter equipment:
reuters.com/world/europe/nato-calls-allies-supply-winter-uniforms-ukrainian-army-2022-09-09
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/22/dead-winter-beckons-poorly-equipped-russian-forces-ukraine
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/latvian-companies-begin-producing-winter-uniforms-for-armed-forces-of-ukraine/
reuters.com/world/canada-announces-new-military-package-ukraine-after-russian-missile-attacks-2022-10-12
UD 6-81-7 E
INSTRUCTION IN WINTER SERVICE
USE AND MAINTENANCE OF EQUIPMENT
https://www.forsvaret.no/en/organisation/centre-of-excellence-cold-weather-operations/handbook-and-lectures/english-handbooks
Ukraine has enough gas for winter, prime minister says
reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-enough-gas-winter-prime-minister-says-2022-11-04
Credit to relevant Twitter aggregators referenced in this video, e.g.
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1596509527293235213/photo/1
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1555002181509586944
twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1595788630206849024
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1595515700810027008
Order of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation dated November 4, 2022 No. 547 "On approval of the List of information in the field of military, military-technical activities of the Russian Federation, which, if received by foreign sources, can be used against the security of the Russian Federation
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202211170017?index=0&rangeSize=1
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — *OPENING WORDS*
00:02:54 — *WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?*
00:04:14 — _*HOW COLD IS COLD*_
00:04:34 — Categorising Cold
00:05:17 — Wet Cold
00:06:33 — Dry Cold
00:07:18 — Intense Cold
00:08:05 — Extreme Cold
00:08:54 — Hazardous Cold
00:09:54 — How Cold Does Ukraine Get?
00:11:12 — _*TACTICAL LEVEL*_
00:11:24 — Concealment and Movement
00:13:57 — Protecting the Person
00:16:30 — Equipment Issues
00:17:46 — Mounting Requirements
00:19:35 — Training and Discipline Premium
00:23:14 — What Does it Mean?
00:25:23 — _*OPERATIONAL LEVEL*_
00:25:42 — Not a Time to Stop
00:27:25 — Historical Engagements
00:28:42 — Enabling Movement
00:29:48 — Pushing Logistics
00:31:12 — The Aerial Dimension
00:32:55 — _*HOW WELL PREPARED ARE THEY*_
00:33:17 — Not Their First Winter War
00:34:56 — The MOBIK Problem
00:36:39 — Gearing Up for Winter
00:38:09 — The Russian Situation
00:39:34 — The Full Spectrum
00:40:58 — Real Solutions
00:41:20 — The Role of Volunteers
00:42:39 — Are They Ready?
00:45:25 — Leadership at All Levels
00:47:18 — Operational Concerns
00:48:40 — The Fuel of War
00:49:38 — So, On Balance?
00:51:10 — _*WHAT TO EXPECT?*_
00:51:24 — Objectives
00:53:23 — Operational Tempo
00:54:13 — Realities at the Front
00:55:31 — _*STRATEGY LEVEL*_
00:55:43 — Winter Economics
00:56:22 — Russian Comfort
00:57:02 — Threats
00:58:45 — The Will Go On
01:00:23 — *CONCLUSIONS*
01:01:55 — *CHANNEL UPDATE*
