Perun | The Ukraine War in 2024 - The Military and Economic Balance of the Long War @PerunAU | Uploaded March 2024 | Updated October 2024, 1 hour ago.
It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it.
But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.
By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Ukraine territory control maps generated using deepstatemap.live
Covert Cabal on Russian artillery storages:youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw
Previous videos referred to:
Russian Defence Production: youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs
How Wars End: youtu.be/PnvJzup8i-c
Political Endurance: youtu.be/pIKiFAKMoi0
Commodity pricing graphs generated using tradingeconomics.com
Estonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat:
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Sam Cranny-Evans
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
Dr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles – The Russian Way of War
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf
Featured and example reporting on covered issues:
Medvedev and Russian wargoals:
cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russia-signals-it-could-try-to-seize-kyiv-again-at-some-point.html
https://ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928899095.html?in=l
kyivindependent.com/medvedev-russia-will-take-more-regions-of-ukraine
Russian Defence Production:
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
Putin on Wargoals in 2024
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/14/russias-goals-in-ukraine-unchanged-putin-says#:~:text=Fielding%20questions%20from%20the%20public,invaded%20Ukraine%20in%20February%202022.
Russia/Ukraine has already won/lost and/or can't win/lose:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/
nytimes.com/2024/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.htmltime.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger
aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/hungarys-orban-says-poor-ukrainians-cannot-win-the-warRussian
Macron 'not ruling out' troops being sent to Ukraine
reuters.com/world/europe/paris-conference-belie-doom-gloom-ukraine-elysee-says-2024-02-25
Sweden joining NATO
bbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893
reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdle-2024-02-26
Defence Production & the 800,000 rounds of Petr Pavel:
kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-ban-on-ammunition-exports/#:~:text=%22All%20contracts%20for%20the%20export,the%20purpose%20of%20defending%20Europe.%22
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/1/7444611/
Morozov & Avdiivka
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/pro-war-russian-blogger-who-revealed-huge-avdiivka-losses-dies-by-suicide
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:48 — The Phases Of War
00:05:24 — Battlefield Trends And Adaptations
00:10:15 — Objectives And "Winning"
00:16:27 — Economics
00:25:18 — Production
00:40:52 — Losses And Pipelines
00:53:06 — Force Quality And Issues
01:00:08 — Reflecting & Projecting
01:02:48 — Channel Update
It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it.
But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.
By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Ukraine territory control maps generated using deepstatemap.live
Covert Cabal on Russian artillery storages:youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw
Previous videos referred to:
Russian Defence Production: youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs
How Wars End: youtu.be/PnvJzup8i-c
Political Endurance: youtu.be/pIKiFAKMoi0
Commodity pricing graphs generated using tradingeconomics.com
Estonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat:
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
Sam Cranny-Evans
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
Dr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles – The Russian Way of War
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf
Featured and example reporting on covered issues:
Medvedev and Russian wargoals:
cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russia-signals-it-could-try-to-seize-kyiv-again-at-some-point.html
https://ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928899095.html?in=l
kyivindependent.com/medvedev-russia-will-take-more-regions-of-ukraine
Russian Defence Production:
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
Putin on Wargoals in 2024
aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/14/russias-goals-in-ukraine-unchanged-putin-says#:~:text=Fielding%20questions%20from%20the%20public,invaded%20Ukraine%20in%20February%202022.
Russia/Ukraine has already won/lost and/or can't win/lose:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/
nytimes.com/2024/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.htmltime.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger
aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/hungarys-orban-says-poor-ukrainians-cannot-win-the-warRussian
Macron 'not ruling out' troops being sent to Ukraine
reuters.com/world/europe/paris-conference-belie-doom-gloom-ukraine-elysee-says-2024-02-25
Sweden joining NATO
bbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893
reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdle-2024-02-26
Defence Production & the 800,000 rounds of Petr Pavel:
kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-ban-on-ammunition-exports/#:~:text=%22All%20contracts%20for%20the%20export,the%20purpose%20of%20defending%20Europe.%22
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/1/7444611/
Morozov & Avdiivka
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/pro-war-russian-blogger-who-revealed-huge-avdiivka-losses-dies-by-suicide
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:01 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:48 — The Phases Of War
00:05:24 — Battlefield Trends And Adaptations
00:10:15 — Objectives And "Winning"
00:16:27 — Economics
00:25:18 — Production
00:40:52 — Losses And Pipelines
00:53:06 — Force Quality And Issues
01:00:08 — Reflecting & Projecting
01:02:48 — Channel Update
