Two Economies at war - Russia and Ukraine after 100 days of sanctions and shelling @PerunAU

Perun | Two Economies at war - Russia and Ukraine after 100 days of sanctions and shelling @PerunAU | Uploaded June 2022 | Updated October 2024, 12 minutes ago.
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** Apologies for the iffy sound-quality and double-upload on this one, my regular editor is travelling so I've done the best I can**

When Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the West responded with a harsh regime of sanctions and measures that were intended to deeply wound the Russian economy.

Now, more than 100 days on, it's hard to find consensus over exactly how well those measures are working. Some will tell you that Russia is on its knees, incapable of carrying on the war much longer, while others will insist that it's Ukraine and Europe that are about to break.

In this video I look at the sanctions measures that have been imposed, what impact they've had, and try to assess how well the Russian and Ukrainian economies are holding up, and what may be next in store as the fighting (and economic pressure) continues.

Notable Sources:
Russian Statistics Service Poverty Statistics
https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/157001 - 2021
https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/168756 -2022

CRS report on Sino-Russian ties:
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12120

ILO Brief on Ukrainian Job losses:
ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---europe/---ro-geneva/documents/briefingnote/wcms_844295.pdf

Bank of Russia release on interest rates:
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/

EU Support for Egypt
english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/06/15/EU-provides-104-million-to-Egypt-to-cope-with-rising-food-prices

Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU

Timestamps
00:00:00 — The Price of War II: Economics of the Russo-Ukraine War

00:00:39 — Sponsor Segment: BLINKIST

00:01:57 — What Am I covering?

00:02:59 — War is expensive: Opening Words
00:03:30 — War is expensive: Peloponnesian War
00:04:20 — War is expensive: WW1
00:04:48 — War is expensive: The War on Terror
00:05:09 — War is expensive: The Russo-Ukraine War & be careful with expenditure figures

00:07:27 — The Russian economy: Opening Words
00:07:39 — The Russian economy: Headline details
00:09:54 — The Russian economy: Sanctions
00:12:11 — The Russian economy: Restricting Russian exports
00:13:47 — The Russian economy: The Hydrocarbon Money Cannon
00:14:57 — The Russian economy: The issue with energy sanctions
00:17:33 — The Russian economy: The Long term challenge
00:19:32 — The Russian economy: Let's talk Roubles
00:23:26 — The Russian economy: Restricting imports
00:25:21 — The Russian economy: China, India & Sanctions
00:29:58 — The Russian economy: Industrial impacts
00:33:20 — The Russian economy: The private sector is vulnerable
00:35:27 — The Russian economy: Poverty Rising
00:37:19 — The Russian economy: “The Two Economies”
00:38:02 — The Russian economy: Where to from here for Russia?

00:40:40 — The Ukrainian economy: Health Check
00:42:17 — The Ukrainian economy: A Wartime economy
00:43:21 — The Ukrainian economy: Sustainability

00:46:06 — The resilience of Industrial states: Economic Collapse?
00:47:48 — The resilience of Industrial states: WW1 period France

00:51:04 — What about the world? Europe
00:54:00 — What about the world? The Wider World

00:55:49 — The Conclusion

00:57:17 — Rebuttal of the week

01:00:42 — Channel Update

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$Ukraines Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraines push into Russia Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions. On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price. Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats, Comments and Corrections: At one point I refer to us being more than two and a half years in to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say almost two and a half years in All normal caveats and disclaimers apply In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes Sources & Reading (in process of revision - to be revised 04/09): Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:45 — The War In August 2024 00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning? 00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia 00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine 00:17:17 — Defence Lines 00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent 00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations 00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions 00:44:30 — The Russian Response 00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic? 00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives 01:00:12 — What Comes Next? 01:03:29 — Conclusions 01:04:42 — Channel Update$

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