Perun | Russia's Winter Offensive in Ukraine - From Bakhmut to Vuhledar, outcomes, lessons, and costs @PerunAU | Uploaded March 2023 | Updated October 2024, 12 minutes ago.
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The Russian invasion of 2022 began with a multi-pronged winter invasion of Ukrainian territory. After a series of reverses in late 2022, the Russian effort to reclaim the initiative in Ukraine seems to have begun...with another multi-pronged winter offensive.
In this episode, I look at the way that offensive has played out, what observations and lessons might come out of the last three months, and what that may mean for the war to come.
Also we're going to talk about the shovels story, because we have to do better than that.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Corrections:
As a video covering military matters - be aware that the fog of war is much thicker on this issue that it is with things like economics and finance.
As such - I'd advise attaching a responsible level of certainty to any of the ideas put forward here. For example, the use of artillery deployed mines at Vuhledar is widely reported - but has not been confirmed by any on-the-ground figures.
I also want to point out that when I talk about the Ukrainian military being opened to lessons learned - that's a relative statement (with the point of comparison being Russia). It's also true that all militaries need to put in place systems of discipline and due process, so it's important to take published commentary, complaints and theorising into context - understand that it's not all that's being said, it's just the sample that makes it into the public sphere.
Sources & Reading:
Vuhledar Satelite Imagery:
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1621815960075116544
Strelkov on the offensive:
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1633410034951438339
wartranslated.com/i-girking-frontline-update-on-19-february
Khodakovsky on ammo and Vuhledar:
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1628354732053131265
Muradov Promotion
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1627545013386084352?lang=en
Kyiv independent on Bakhmut:
kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected
kyivindependent.com/national/bakhmut-bound-infantry-assault-troops-we-are-holding-on-ready-for-any-scenario
Comentary on RU Assault unit tactics:
twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1630089568195313669
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1634799680126058502
(Tatrigami's channel is generally worth looking at twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA)
Commentary on potential lessons learned in the UA Army:
By Lieutenant Colonel Glen Grant
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1636589579183575040
Visually confirmed loss data and graphics:
Oryx:
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
War Mapper:
twitter.com/War_Mapper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Warspotting:
ukr.warspotting.net
Jomini of the West
twitter.com/JominiW
Mapping per deepstatemap:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/47.7566/37.2158
Credit as always to Dimitri at Wartranslated
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637130923027095556
How the ebattle for the Donbas shaped Ukraine's success
fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success
Casualties of 14th Spetznaz Colonel Sergey Polyakov
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622340987350564866
Kofman on the winter offensive:
twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1627309427907854336
Shoigu visit to Muradov:
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1632063279664181249
Russian official commenting on Bakhmut
reuters.com/world/europe/no-signs-ukraine-is-withdrawing-troops-bakhmut-russian-installed-official-2023-03-16
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — INTRO
00:00:57 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:01:59 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:02 — BEFORE THE WINTER
00:04:12 — The Surovikin Strategy?
00:05:52 — Pressure Applied & Received
00:07:28 — The New(old) Boss
00:08:20 — Ukraine Secedes The Initiative
00:08:55 — WINTER OFFENSIVE
00:11:08 — OVERVIEW OF THE OFFENSIVE
00:12:39 — A Sense Of Perspective
00:15:36 — WINTER BATTLEFIELDS
00:16:02 — Kherson
00:17:25 — Luhansk
00:18:12 — Svatove-Kreminna
00:19:21 — Kupyansk
00:19:43 — Donetsk
00:20:54 — Avdiivka
00:22:56 — Marinka
00:25:00 — Bakhmut
00:31:06 — Vuhledar
00:37:05 — Culture Can Kill
00:38:36 — OBSERVATIONS
00:39:52 — Shovels And Sticks
00:44:49 — Attacking Fortified Positions Is Difficult
00:46:12 — Entrenchments & Defensive Tactics
00:47:17 — Certain Systems Have Been Noteworthy
00:49:06 — Changing Force Quality
00:50:53 — EVOLVING TACTICS & FORCES
00:53:45 — Ukraine's Lessons
00:57:15 — EVALUATION & WHAT NEXT
00:59:24 — The Russian Costs And Gains
01:02:35 — Implications For Ukraine
01:05:37 — Was There An Alternative?
01:06:38 — Losses & Force (re)generation
01:07:21 — CONCLUSIONS
01:08:44 — CHANNEL UPDATE
Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 30% off your subscription by visiting https://ground.news/perun
The Russian invasion of 2022 began with a multi-pronged winter invasion of Ukrainian territory. After a series of reverses in late 2022, the Russian effort to reclaim the initiative in Ukraine seems to have begun...with another multi-pronged winter offensive.
In this episode, I look at the way that offensive has played out, what observations and lessons might come out of the last three months, and what that may mean for the war to come.
Also we're going to talk about the shovels story, because we have to do better than that.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Corrections:
As a video covering military matters - be aware that the fog of war is much thicker on this issue that it is with things like economics and finance.
As such - I'd advise attaching a responsible level of certainty to any of the ideas put forward here. For example, the use of artillery deployed mines at Vuhledar is widely reported - but has not been confirmed by any on-the-ground figures.
I also want to point out that when I talk about the Ukrainian military being opened to lessons learned - that's a relative statement (with the point of comparison being Russia). It's also true that all militaries need to put in place systems of discipline and due process, so it's important to take published commentary, complaints and theorising into context - understand that it's not all that's being said, it's just the sample that makes it into the public sphere.
Sources & Reading:
Vuhledar Satelite Imagery:
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1621815960075116544
Strelkov on the offensive:
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1633410034951438339
wartranslated.com/i-girking-frontline-update-on-19-february
Khodakovsky on ammo and Vuhledar:
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1628354732053131265
Muradov Promotion
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1627545013386084352?lang=en
Kyiv independent on Bakhmut:
kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected
kyivindependent.com/national/bakhmut-bound-infantry-assault-troops-we-are-holding-on-ready-for-any-scenario
Comentary on RU Assault unit tactics:
twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1630089568195313669
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1634799680126058502
(Tatrigami's channel is generally worth looking at twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA)
Commentary on potential lessons learned in the UA Army:
By Lieutenant Colonel Glen Grant
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1636589579183575040
Visually confirmed loss data and graphics:
Oryx:
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
War Mapper:
twitter.com/War_Mapper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Warspotting:
ukr.warspotting.net
Jomini of the West
twitter.com/JominiW
Mapping per deepstatemap:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/47.7566/37.2158
Credit as always to Dimitri at Wartranslated
twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637130923027095556
How the ebattle for the Donbas shaped Ukraine's success
fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success
Casualties of 14th Spetznaz Colonel Sergey Polyakov
twitter.com/RALee85/status/1622340987350564866
Kofman on the winter offensive:
twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1627309427907854336
Shoigu visit to Muradov:
twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1632063279664181249
Russian official commenting on Bakhmut
reuters.com/world/europe/no-signs-ukraine-is-withdrawing-troops-bakhmut-russian-installed-official-2023-03-16
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — INTRO
00:00:57 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:01:59 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:02 — BEFORE THE WINTER
00:04:12 — The Surovikin Strategy?
00:05:52 — Pressure Applied & Received
00:07:28 — The New(old) Boss
00:08:20 — Ukraine Secedes The Initiative
00:08:55 — WINTER OFFENSIVE
00:11:08 — OVERVIEW OF THE OFFENSIVE
00:12:39 — A Sense Of Perspective
00:15:36 — WINTER BATTLEFIELDS
00:16:02 — Kherson
00:17:25 — Luhansk
00:18:12 — Svatove-Kreminna
00:19:21 — Kupyansk
00:19:43 — Donetsk
00:20:54 — Avdiivka
00:22:56 — Marinka
00:25:00 — Bakhmut
00:31:06 — Vuhledar
00:37:05 — Culture Can Kill
00:38:36 — OBSERVATIONS
00:39:52 — Shovels And Sticks
00:44:49 — Attacking Fortified Positions Is Difficult
00:46:12 — Entrenchments & Defensive Tactics
00:47:17 — Certain Systems Have Been Noteworthy
00:49:06 — Changing Force Quality
00:50:53 — EVOLVING TACTICS & FORCES
00:53:45 — Ukraine's Lessons
00:57:15 — EVALUATION & WHAT NEXT
00:59:24 — The Russian Costs And Gains
01:02:35 — Implications For Ukraine
01:05:37 — Was There An Alternative?
01:06:38 — Losses & Force (re)generation
01:07:21 — CONCLUSIONS
01:08:44 — CHANNEL UPDATE
