Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
I value SpaceX a few weeks ago, using piecemeal information and entirely on narrative, and promised to return to the valuation when the prospectus was public. The prospectus has now been filed, and the offering price set, and I revisit SpaceX, armed with the additional information. At the risk of giving away the ending, my story for SpaceX has become both bigger and more volatile, bu my overall valuation for SpaceX barely budged (at $1.22 trillion) and with the $75 billion cash proceeds from the IPO, the value of equity comes in at $1.3 trillion. The prospectus does paint a picture of a company that plans a full-bore assault on the AI market, with its pluses (a potentially huge market) and its minuses (poor unit economics and huge capital expenditures). If you are surprised that a 400-page prospectus did not have a bigger impact on the valuation, I look at how financial statements affect value as a company moves through the life cycle, arguing that the types of questions that you need answered are very different, when you are valuing young businesses. I close with a description of the IPO process, and how understanding the motivations of the players involved can help in making a decision on whether you should invest in the company or trade its stock.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/SpaceXpostprospectus.pdf
Blog Post: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/06/a-weeks-ago-i-assessed-value-of-spacex.html
Prospectus: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
Post-prospectus valuation: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/SpaceX2026IPOUpdated.xlsx
I value SpaceX a few weeks ago, using piecemeal information and entirely on narrative, and promised to return to the valuation when the prospectus was public. The prospectus has now been filed, and the offering price set, and I revisit SpaceX, armed with the additional information. At the risk of giving away the ending, my story for SpaceX has become both bigger and more volatile, bu my overall valuation for SpaceX barely budged (at $1.22 trillion) and with the $75 billion cash proceeds from the IPO, the value of equity comes in at $1.3 trillion. The prospectus does paint a picture of a company that plans a full-bore assault on the AI market, with its pluses (a potentially huge market) and its minuses (poor unit economics and huge capital expenditures). If you are surprised that a 400-page prospectus did not have a bigger impact on the valuation, I look at how financial statements affect value as a company moves through the life cycle, arguing that the types of questions that you need answered are very different, when you are valuing young businesses. I close with a description of the IPO process, and how understanding the motivations of the players involved can help in making a decision on whether you should invest in the company or trade its stock.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/SpaceXpostprospectus.pdf
Blog Post: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/06/a-weeks-ago-i-assessed-value-of-spacex.html
Prospectus: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
Post-prospectus valuation: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/SpaceX2026IPOUpdated.xlsx
