Perun | The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian Exports @PerunAU | Uploaded March 2024 | Updated October 2024, 5 days ago.
For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.
In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the source
sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Bronk, J - The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
Cranny Evans, S - Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
MBDA order and delivery figures
breakingdefense.com/2024/03/dassault-thales-mbda-bank-extraordinary-2023-sales-with-more-projected
Cover image from:
cnbc.com/2022/09/25/winters-approach-sets-the-clock-ticking-for-ukraine-and-russia.html
Kuwait receiving upgraded Abrams
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/kuwait-receives-first-m1a2k-tank
Reporting on France becoming the number 2 exporter
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-overtake-russia-world-weapons-exporter/#:~:text=RUSSIA'S%20FALL%20AND%20FRANCE'S%20RISE,major%20arms%20from%202019%2D23.
france24.com/en/europe/20230802-france-may-soon-overtake-russia-as-the-world-s-no-2-arms-exporter
CRS - Russian Arms Sales and Defense Industry
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46937#:~:text=Despite%20its%20global%20presence%2C%20Russia,of%20Russian%20arms%20since%202016.
Russian media on Indian Su-30 program
sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.html
CSIS - Sellers Remorse: The Challenges Facing Russia's Arms Exports
csis.org/analysis/sellers-remorse-challenges-facing-russias-arms-exports
Russia delivers third S-400 system to India
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russia-delivers-third-s-400-system-to-india#:~:text=India%20signed%20a%20USD5.,by%20the%20end%20of%202023.
RAND - is Su-75 a case of vapor marketing?
rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/01/is-russias-su-75-checkmate-aircraft-a-case-of-vapor.html
Reporting on claimed Russian buybacks from Myanmar
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Russia-buying-back-arms-parts-exported-to-Myanmar-and-India?s=08
General Reporting on Russian production output
tass.com/defense/1526773
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners#img-5
Russian-Iranian cooperation
reuters.com/world/russia-iran-ties-have-reached-new-level-russian-defence-minister-2023-09-20
Russian Reporting on prospects of Su-35 production in PRC
tass.com/russia/816393
US weapon orders surge
politico.com/news/2024/01/29/us-foreign-arms-sales-russia-china-00138390
US to sell F-35 to Greece
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-27/us-to-sell-40-f-35-fighter-jets-to-greece-gift-other-aircraft'
Reporting on Singapore getting its German Type 218SGs
defensenews.com/naval/2023/07/21/singapores-navy-receives-first-of-four-new-german-built-submarines
France SPG production
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-will-produce-dozens-of-caesar-acs-for-ukraine/
Russia not exporting lancets due to domestic demand
reuters.com/world/europe/russia-not-exporting-lancet-drones-domestic-demand-high-tass-2023-11-15/#:~:text=%22The%20Lancet%20is%20also%20receiving,no%20export%20permit%20documentation%20yet.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
02:00 — Caveats & Notes
02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse
14:57 — What is Driving the Decline?
27:15 — Filling the Void?
35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter
45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector?
55:15 — Channel Update
For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.
In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.
Patreon:
patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
I refer to MBDA 'deliveries' - the correct word is 'revenues'
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
Also note that while I may use words like 'contracted' in this video - be aware I may be using the terms to refer to the SIPRI order year. In some cases, these order dates may align to a contract being signed. Please review the SIPRI methodology.
Readings and Sources:
Arms transfer data in this episode is primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database - Please explore the methodology and other background information relating to the source
sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
Bronk, J - The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
Cranny Evans, S - Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations
rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
MBDA order and delivery figures
breakingdefense.com/2024/03/dassault-thales-mbda-bank-extraordinary-2023-sales-with-more-projected
Cover image from:
cnbc.com/2022/09/25/winters-approach-sets-the-clock-ticking-for-ukraine-and-russia.html
Kuwait receiving upgraded Abrams
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/kuwait-receives-first-m1a2k-tank
Reporting on France becoming the number 2 exporter
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-overtake-russia-world-weapons-exporter/#:~:text=RUSSIA'S%20FALL%20AND%20FRANCE'S%20RISE,major%20arms%20from%202019%2D23.
france24.com/en/europe/20230802-france-may-soon-overtake-russia-as-the-world-s-no-2-arms-exporter
CRS - Russian Arms Sales and Defense Industry
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46937#:~:text=Despite%20its%20global%20presence%2C%20Russia,of%20Russian%20arms%20since%202016.
Russian media on Indian Su-30 program
sputniknews.in/20240123/iaf-su-30mki-upgrade-program-bharat-should-hurry-up-to-avoid-operational-gaps-6303773.html
CSIS - Sellers Remorse: The Challenges Facing Russia's Arms Exports
csis.org/analysis/sellers-remorse-challenges-facing-russias-arms-exports
Russia delivers third S-400 system to India
janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/russia-delivers-third-s-400-system-to-india#:~:text=India%20signed%20a%20USD5.,by%20the%20end%20of%202023.
RAND - is Su-75 a case of vapor marketing?
rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/01/is-russias-su-75-checkmate-aircraft-a-case-of-vapor.html
Reporting on claimed Russian buybacks from Myanmar
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Russia-buying-back-arms-parts-exported-to-Myanmar-and-India?s=08
General Reporting on Russian production output
tass.com/defense/1526773
theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners#img-5
Russian-Iranian cooperation
reuters.com/world/russia-iran-ties-have-reached-new-level-russian-defence-minister-2023-09-20
Russian Reporting on prospects of Su-35 production in PRC
tass.com/russia/816393
US weapon orders surge
politico.com/news/2024/01/29/us-foreign-arms-sales-russia-china-00138390
US to sell F-35 to Greece
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-27/us-to-sell-40-f-35-fighter-jets-to-greece-gift-other-aircraft'
Reporting on Singapore getting its German Type 218SGs
defensenews.com/naval/2023/07/21/singapores-navy-receives-first-of-four-new-german-built-submarines
France SPG production
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/france-will-produce-dozens-of-caesar-acs-for-ukraine/
Russia not exporting lancets due to domestic demand
reuters.com/world/europe/russia-not-exporting-lancet-drones-domestic-demand-high-tass-2023-11-15/#:~:text=%22The%20Lancet%20is%20also%20receiving,no%20export%20permit%20documentation%20yet.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
02:00 — Caveats & Notes
02:55 — The Russian Market Collapse
14:57 — What is Driving the Decline?
27:15 — Filling the Void?
35:32 — Why Russian Exports Matter
45:04 — What Next for the Russian Arms Sector?
55:15 — Channel Update
