Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE FOR FREE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. Stephen explains why bitcoin has only seen one clean four-year cycle, how log periodicity stretches the gaps between bubbles far beyond four years, and why his power law model points toward a multi-year move higher. He walks through the recent 50% drawdown, the case that bitcoin is now sitting below trend, and how his framework lines up with TBL liquidity and financial conditions. Nik and Stephen also discuss using AI for research, the coupling between power law and log periodicity, and why bitcoin still looks cheap against gold.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
Dr. Perrenod's article with the parameter flow animation: stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoin-parameter-flow-space-diagrams
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro
0:29 — What Is Log Periodicity?
2:47 — Power Law, Time, and Price
6:17 — The Case Against the 4-Year Cycle
9:44 — Lambda and the Spacing Parameter
14:10 — How He Uses AI for Research
16:55 — bitcoin's Next Two Years and $300K
21:07 — Explaining the 50% Drawdown
23:32 — Endogenous Structure vs Macro
26:37 — Financial Conditions and TBL Liquidity
30:16 — TBL Liquidity vs Buy and Hold
31:42 — Walk-Forward Forecasts and Combining Models
37:02 — Power Law and Log Periodicity Together
39:33 — The Coupling Constant
42:17 — Lambda in the Real World
45:30 — Power Law Examples in Nature
47:12 — Back to $160K and the Gold Trade
51:08 — Where to Find Perrenod
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE FOR FREE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. Stephen explains why bitcoin has only seen one clean four-year cycle, how log periodicity stretches the gaps between bubbles far beyond four years, and why his power law model points toward a multi-year move higher. He walks through the recent 50% drawdown, the case that bitcoin is now sitting below trend, and how his framework lines up with TBL liquidity and financial conditions. Nik and Stephen also discuss using AI for research, the coupling between power law and log periodicity, and why bitcoin still looks cheap against gold.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
Dr. Perrenod's article with the parameter flow animation: stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoin-parameter-flow-space-diagrams
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro
0:29 — What Is Log Periodicity?
2:47 — Power Law, Time, and Price
6:17 — The Case Against the 4-Year Cycle
9:44 — Lambda and the Spacing Parameter
14:10 — How He Uses AI for Research
16:55 — bitcoin's Next Two Years and $300K
21:07 — Explaining the 50% Drawdown
23:32 — Endogenous Structure vs Macro
26:37 — Financial Conditions and TBL Liquidity
30:16 — TBL Liquidity vs Buy and Hold
31:42 — Walk-Forward Forecasts and Combining Models
37:02 — Power Law and Log Periodicity Together
39:33 — The Coupling Constant
42:17 — Lambda in the Real World
45:30 — Power Law Examples in Nature
47:12 — Back to $160K and the Gold Trade
51:08 — Where to Find Perrenod
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
