Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
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Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 as the TBL liquidity cycle indicator holds its April 8th buy signal and Johan's state quadrant pulls bitcoin out of capitulation toward recovery. Underneath the headlines, the US economy is running hot: ISM manufacturing prices paid at 84.6, services at 70.7, and T-bills repricing flat to the policy rate as further cuts come off the table. Nik makes the case that the hyperscaler CapEx wave, potentially crossing $1 trillion in 2027, is the dominant force in markets right now and that the AI-doomer labor framing misses how Nvidia's margins actually distribute through the supply chain.
Explore TBL Pulse for free: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
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The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
00:00 Bitcoin Back Above $80,000
00:42 US CapEx Wave and Economic Strength
01:45 TBL Pulse Overview and Webinar
04:13 Liquidity Cycle Indicator and Current Buy Signal
05:30 Valuation, Trend, and Power Law Fair Value
06:50 Johan's State Quadrant Explained
09:00 Watchlist, Tweet Desk, and Prediction Markets
10:15 Macro Tab: Policy Rates and Fed Balance Sheet
12:00 Treasury General Account and Money Markets
13:30 Trading Tab and Trend Lines
15:00 TBL Liquidity Performance Tracking
17:30 The Four Pillars: MOVE, Dollar, Treasuries
19:45 Bitcoin Tab and Johan's State Quadrant Deep Dive
22:30 Valuation Bands and AVIV Cost Basis
24:00 Trend Heat Map: Technical, On-Chain, Derivatives, Flows, Risk Appetite
26:30 ISM Manufacturing and Services: Inflation Pressure
28:30 T-Bills vs Policy Rate: Rate Cuts Priced Out
29:45 AI Build-Out, Hyperscalers, and Why the Bears Are Wrong
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 SIGN UP FOR THE FREE WEBINAR (MAY 6): us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/amFVhJ1jT-ylItWuBVJstw
Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 as the TBL liquidity cycle indicator holds its April 8th buy signal and Johan's state quadrant pulls bitcoin out of capitulation toward recovery. Underneath the headlines, the US economy is running hot: ISM manufacturing prices paid at 84.6, services at 70.7, and T-bills repricing flat to the policy rate as further cuts come off the table. Nik makes the case that the hyperscaler CapEx wave, potentially crossing $1 trillion in 2027, is the dominant force in markets right now and that the AI-doomer labor framing misses how Nvidia's margins actually distribute through the supply chain.
Explore TBL Pulse for free: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
00:00 Bitcoin Back Above $80,000
00:42 US CapEx Wave and Economic Strength
01:45 TBL Pulse Overview and Webinar
04:13 Liquidity Cycle Indicator and Current Buy Signal
05:30 Valuation, Trend, and Power Law Fair Value
06:50 Johan's State Quadrant Explained
09:00 Watchlist, Tweet Desk, and Prediction Markets
10:15 Macro Tab: Policy Rates and Fed Balance Sheet
12:00 Treasury General Account and Money Markets
13:30 Trading Tab and Trend Lines
15:00 TBL Liquidity Performance Tracking
17:30 The Four Pillars: MOVE, Dollar, Treasuries
19:45 Bitcoin Tab and Johan's State Quadrant Deep Dive
22:30 Valuation Bands and AVIV Cost Basis
24:00 Trend Heat Map: Technical, On-Chain, Derivatives, Flows, Risk Appetite
26:30 ISM Manufacturing and Services: Inflation Pressure
28:30 T-Bills vs Policy Rate: Rate Cuts Priced Out
29:45 AI Build-Out, Hyperscalers, and Why the Bears Are Wrong
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
