Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
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In this Global Macro Update, Nik argues a global bond crisis is brewing and it starts outside the United States. Japanese yields are driving the worldwide sell-off, with German and UK bonds close behind, while inflation expectations roar back on the oil shock from the war in Iran. Nik walks through every major asset class, the bear flattener in US Treasuries, why credit spreads show no fear at home, and why the SOFR market signals a flight to safety rather than US bond stress. On the economy, he makes the case that the US labor market is strong, housing inflation is bottoming, and the AI capex boom is creating demand-driven inflation now showing up in ISM prices paid. The could-be crisis is most dangerous abroad, where dollar strength and dollar-denominated oil costs are choking the ability to service debt.
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The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Markets Scorecard: 12-Month and 5-Year Returns
04:45 Bitcoin Price and the 200-Day Moving Average
05:45 TBL Liquidity Indicator
07:30 Bitcoin MVRV and Valuation
10:15 Bitcoin Correlations Across Assets
12:15 Bitcoin to Gold Ratio
15:00 US Treasuries: Bear Flattener Explained
17:30 10-Year Yield in Historical Context
20:00 Inflation Break-Evens and Real Yields
22:45 Yield Curve and Bond Volatility
24:30 Credit Spreads: Where There's No Fear
26:30 The Could-Be Global Bond Crisis
29:30 US Labor Market Strength
31:30 CPI, Housing Inflation, and AI CapEx Boom
35:00 Atlanta Fed GDP and the AI Shortage
38:00 ISM Prices Paid and Demand-Driven Inflation
40:30 SOFR and the Flight to Safety
42:30 Money Market Inflows and Wrap
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE FOR FREE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this Global Macro Update, Nik argues a global bond crisis is brewing and it starts outside the United States. Japanese yields are driving the worldwide sell-off, with German and UK bonds close behind, while inflation expectations roar back on the oil shock from the war in Iran. Nik walks through every major asset class, the bear flattener in US Treasuries, why credit spreads show no fear at home, and why the SOFR market signals a flight to safety rather than US bond stress. On the economy, he makes the case that the US labor market is strong, housing inflation is bottoming, and the AI capex boom is creating demand-driven inflation now showing up in ISM prices paid. The could-be crisis is most dangerous abroad, where dollar strength and dollar-denominated oil costs are choking the ability to service debt.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Markets Scorecard: 12-Month and 5-Year Returns
04:45 Bitcoin Price and the 200-Day Moving Average
05:45 TBL Liquidity Indicator
07:30 Bitcoin MVRV and Valuation
10:15 Bitcoin Correlations Across Assets
12:15 Bitcoin to Gold Ratio
15:00 US Treasuries: Bear Flattener Explained
17:30 10-Year Yield in Historical Context
20:00 Inflation Break-Evens and Real Yields
22:45 Yield Curve and Bond Volatility
24:30 Credit Spreads: Where There's No Fear
26:30 The Could-Be Global Bond Crisis
29:30 US Labor Market Strength
31:30 CPI, Housing Inflation, and AI CapEx Boom
35:00 Atlanta Fed GDP and the AI Shortage
38:00 ISM Prices Paid and Demand-Driven Inflation
40:30 SOFR and the Flight to Safety
42:30 Money Market Inflows and Wrap
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
